Female labour force participation, fertility and infant mortality in Australia : some empirical evidence from Granger causality tests

This study applies Granger causality tests within a multivariate error correction framework to examine the relationship between female participation rates, infant mortality rates and fertility rates for Australia using annual data from 1960 to 2000. Decomposition of variance and impulse response functions are also considered. The main findings are twofold. First, in the short run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from the fertility rate to female labour force participation and from the infant mortality rate to female labour force participation while there is neutrality between the fertility rate and infant mortality rate. Second, in the long run both the fertility rate and infant mortality rate Granger cause female labour participation.

Air pollution and infant mortality: evidence from the expansion of natural gas infrastructure

We examine the impact of widespread adoption of natural gas as a source of fuel on infant mortality in Turkey, using variation across provinces and over time in the intensity of natural gas utilisation. Our estimates indicate that the expansion of natural gas infrastructure has resulted in a significant decrease in the rate of infant mortality. Specifically, a one-percentage point increase in natural gas intensity – measured by the rate of subscriptions to natural gas services – would cause the infant mortality rate to decrease by 4%, which would translate into approximately 348 infant lives saved in 2011 alone.

Yield, growth and mortality rate of the Thai river sprat, Clupeichthys aesarnensis, in Sirinthorn Reservoir, Thailand

The Thai river sprat, Clupeichthys aesarnensis Wongratana, is a clupeid with a short life span, and supports artisanal fisheries in a number of reservoirs in the Mekong Basin. The growth parameters, mortality rates and the status of the Thai river sprat in Sirinthorn Reservoir (28 800 ha), NE Thailand (15°N; 105°E), are presented. The fishery is based on lured lift-nets, operated 7–14 days in the new moon period, September to April each year. It was shown that the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) model was L_t (mm) = 78.43[1 − exp{−0.211[t − (−0.7996)]}] and its growth conformed to an isometric pattern. Natural mortality rate (month−¹) was 0.13 month−¹. Total mortality rates ranged from 0.69 to 1.53 month−¹ depending on the weather and the fishing season. Recruitment was continuous throughout the year but peaked in June and July. The yield per recruit model indicated that the exploitation rate of this fishery is probably too high.

Perioperative Mortality Rate (POMR): a global indicator of access to safe surgery and anaesthesia

The unmet global burden of surgical disease is substantial. Currently, two billion people do not have access to emergency and essential surgical care. This results in unnecessary deaths from injury, infection, complications of pregnancy, and abdominal emergencies. Inadequately treated surgical disease results in disability, and many children suffer deformity without corrective surgery.

Toward a standard approach to measurement and reporting of perioperative mortality rate as a global indicator for surgery

INTRODUCTION: The proportion of patients who die during or after surgery, otherwise known as the perioperative mortality rate (POMR), is a credible indicator of the safety and quality of operative care. Its accuracy and usefulness as a metric, however, particularly one that enables valid comparisons over time or between jurisdictions, has been limited by lack of a standardized approach to measurement and calculation, poor understanding of when in relation to surgery it is best measured, and whether risk-adjustment is needed. Our aim was to evaluate the value of POMR as a global surgery metric by addressing these issues using 4, large, mixed, surgical datasets that represent high-, middle-, and low-income countries. METHODS: We obtained data from the New Zealand National Minimum Dataset, the Geelong Hospital patient management system in Australia, and purpose-built surgical databases in Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, and Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. For each site, we calculated the POMR overall as well as for nonemergency and emergency admissions. We assessed the effect of admission episodes and procedures as the denominator and the difference between in-hospital POMR and POMR, including postdischarge deaths up to 30 days. To determine the need for risk-adjustment for age and admission urgency, we used univariate and multivariate logistic regression to assess the effect on relative POMR for each site. RESULTS: A total of 1,362,635 patient admissions involving 1,514,242 procedures were included. More than 60% of admissions in Pietermaritzburg and Port Moresby were emergencies, compared with less than 30% in New Zealand and Geelong. Also, Pietermaritzburg and Port Moresby had much younger patient populations (P < .001). A total of 8,655 deaths were recorded within 30 days, and 8-20% of in-hospital deaths occurred on the same day as the first operation. In-hospital POMR ranged approximately 9-fold, from 0.38 per 100 admissions in New Zealand to 3.44 per 100 admissions in Pietermaritzburg. In New Zealand, in-hospital 30-day POMR underestimated total 30-day POMR by approximately one third. The difference in POMR if procedures were used instead of admission episodes ranged from 7 to 70%, although this difference was less when central line and pacemaker insertions were excluded. Age older than 65 years and emergency admission had large, independent effects on POMR but relatively little effect in multivariate analysis on the relative odds of in-hospital death at each site. CONCLUSION: It is possible to collect POMR in countries at all level of development. Although age and admission urgency are strong, independent associations with POMR, a substantial amount of its variance is site-specific and may reflect the safety of operative and anesthetic facilities and processes. Risk-adjustment is desirable but not essential for monitoring system performance. POMR varies depending on the choice of denominator, and in-hospital deaths appear to underestimate 30-day mortality by up to one third. Standardized approaches to reporting and analysis will strengthen the validity of POMR as the principal indicator of the safety of surgery and anesthesia care.

Monitoring and evaluating surgical care: defining perioperative mortality rate and standardising data collection

BACKGROUND: Case volume per 100 000 population and perioperative mortality rate (POMR) are key indicators to monitor and strengthen surgical services. However, comparisons of POMR have been restricted by absence of standardised approaches to when it is measured, the ideal denominator, need for risk adjustment, and whether data are available. We aimed to address these issues and recommend a minimum dataset by analysing four large mixed surgical datasets, two from well-resourced settings with sophisticated electronic patient information systems and two from resource-limited settings where clinicians maintain locally developed databases. METHODS: We obtained data from the New Zealand (NZ) National Minimum Dataset, the Geelong Hospital patient management system in Australia, and purpose-built surgical databases in Pietermaritzburg, South Africa (PMZ) and Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea (PNG). Information was sought on inclusion and exclusion criteria, coding criteria, and completeness of patient identifiers, admission, procedure, discharge and death dates, operation details, urgency of admission, and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score. Date-related errors were defined as missing dates and impossible discrepancies. For every site, we then calculated the POMR, the effect of admission episodes or procedures as denominator, and the difference between in-hospital POMR and 30-day POMR. To determine the need for risk adjustment, we used univariate and multivariate logistic regression to assess the effect on relative POMR for each site of age, admission urgency, ASA score, and procedure type. FINDINGS: 1 365 773 patient admissions involving 1 514 242 procedures were included, among which 8655 deaths were recorded within 30 days. Database inclusion and exclusion criteria differed substantially. NZ and Geelong records had less than 0·1% date-related errors and greater than 99·9% completeness. PMZ databases had 99·9% or greater completeness of all data except date-related items (94·0%). PNG had 99·9% or greater completeness for date of birth or age and admission date and operative procedure, but 80-83% completeness of patient identifiers and date related items. Coding of procedures was not standardised, and only NZ recorded ASA status and complete post-discharge mortality. In-hospital POMR range was 0·38% in NZ to 3·44% in PMZ, and in NZ it underestimated 30-day POMR by roughly a third. The difference in POMR by procedures instead of admission episodes as denominator ranged from 10% to 70%. Age older than 65 years and emergency admission had large independent effects on POMR, but relatively little effect in multivariate analysis on the relative odds of in-hospital death at each site. INTERPRETATION: Hospitals can collect and provide data for case volume and POMR without sophisticated electronic information systems. POMR should initially be defined by in-hospital mortality because post-discharge deaths are not usually recorded, and with procedures as denominator because details allowing linkage of several operations within one patient's admission are not always present. Although age and admission urgency are independently associated with POMR, and ASA and case mix were not included, risk adjustment might not be essential because the relative odds between sites persisted. Standardisation of inclusion criteria and definitions is needed, as is attention to accuracy and completeness of dates of procedures, discharge and death. A one-page, paper-based form, or alternatively a simple electronic data collection form, containing a minimum dataset commenced in the operating theatre could facilitate this process. FUNDING: None.

Determinants of female fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001 : empirical evidence from cointegration and variance decomposition analysis

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in Taiwan over the period 1966–2001. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in Taiwan's fertility model are real income, infant mortality rate, female education and female labor force participation rate. The test for cointegration is based on the recently developed bounds testing procedure while the long-run and short-run elasticities are based on the autoregressive distributed lag model. Among our key results, female education and female labor force participation rate are found to be the key determinants of fertility in Taiwan in the long run. The variance decom-position analysis indicates that in the long run approximately 45percent of the variation in fertility is explained by the combined impact of female labor force participation, mortality and income, implying that socioeconomic development played an important role in the fertility transition in Taiwan. This result is consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis.

An econometric analysis of the determinants of fertility for China, 1952-2000

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952-2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10-12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development - consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis - played a key role in China's fertility transition.

Height, aging and cognitive abilities across Europe

Previous research has found that as a marker of childhood circumstances, height is correlated with cognitive functioning at older ages. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and about 17,000 respondents from 11 countries, we find that height is positively and significantly associated with cognitive functioning in later life despite controlling for a myriad of possible confounding factors. A 10 cm increase in height is associated with a 0.04 standard deviation increase in a summary cognitive score (mean 0.02, std. dev. 0.77). We find that being born in a country where the infant mortality rate at the time of birth is high has a negative and significant influence on cognitive functioning in later life. A 10% increase in the infant mortality rate is associated with a 0.1 standard deviation decrease in the summary cognitive score. We also find some evidence that height serves as a protective factor against age related deterioration in cognitive functioning. For persons of average stature, age related decreases in cognition scores are 3–5 percentage points smaller if they move up a quartile in the height distribution. Our results also suggest that there is a significant positive association between height and cognitive abilities across countries for this pre-1950 birth cohort of respondents, with correlations ranging from 0.4 to 0.8.

Relationship of body condition score, live weight, stocking rate and grazing system to the mortality of Angora goats from hypothermia and their use in the assessment of welfare risks

Body condition scoring is widely used for sheep and cattle but the practice is included in only one Code of Practice for the welfare of goats in Australia. There is no published scientific evidence to support or defend its use in the assessment of welfare risks to farmed goats.

PROCEDURE: The significance of stocking rate, grazing system, body condition score (CS) and live weight were investigated in explaining the risk of mortality of individual and flocks of grazing Angora goats from hypothermia following a severe weather event in April. This event occurred 5 weeks after shearing the goats. Angora goats and Saxon Merino sheep were grazed alone, or mixed together in equal numbers at each of three stocking rates.

RESULTS: There was no mortality amongst Angora goats provided they grazed at the lowest stocking rate even when their CS was < or = 2.0. Mortality in flocks of Angora goats was most related to the CS reached during the preceding 2 months. For flocks of Angora goats there was no mortality at CS > or = 2.5 and mortality increased sharply at mean CS < 2.0. For individual Angora goats, mortality increased as CS declined and stocking rate and grazing combinations were additive in effect on mortality. Grazing with sheep increased mortality of Angora goats at higher stocking rates. The individual goat mortality rate was not dependent on individual plot effects suggesting that these results are applicable widely. Live weight loss was not related to mortality rates of goats once CS had been accounted for.
CONCLUSION: It was concluded that CS and stocking rate were highly significant determinants of welfare risk in Angora goats.

Food insecurity, malnutrition and mortality in Maewo and Ambae islands, Vanuatu

Context: This paper reports on findings from the ex-post evaluation of the Maewo Capacity Building project in Maewo Island, Vanuatu, which was funded by World Vision Australia.
Objectives: To examine the extent to which the infrastructure and systems left behind by the project contributed to the improvement of household food security and health and nutritional outcomes in Maewo Island, using Ambae Island as a comparator.
Setting: Two-stage cluster survey conducted from 6 to 20 July 2004, which included anthropometric measures and 4.5-year retrospective mortality data collection.
Participants: A total of 406 households in Maewo comprising 1623 people and 411 households in Ambae comprising 1799 people.
Main outcome measures: Household food insecurity, crude mortality rate (CMR), under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and malnutrition prevalence among children.
Results: The prevalence of food insecurity without hunger was estimated at 15.3%
(95% confidence interval (CI): 12.1, 19.2%) in Maewo versus 38.2% (95% CI: 33.6, 43.0%) in Ambae, while food insecurity with hunger in children did not vary by location. After controlling for the child’s age and gender, children in Maewo had higher weight-for-age and height-for-age Z-scores than children of the same age in Ambae. The CMR was lower in Maewo (CMR ¼ 0.47/10 000 per day, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.55) than in Ambae (CMR ¼ 0.59/10 000 per day, 95% CI: 0.51, 0.67) but no difference existed in U5MR. The major causes of death were similar in both locations, with frequently reported causes being malaria, acute respiratory infection and
diarrhoeal disease.
Conclusions: Project initiatives in Maewo Island have reduced the risks of mortality and malnutrition. Using a cross-sectional ‘external control group’ design, this paper demonstrates that it is possible to draw conclusions about project effectiveness where baseline data are incomplete or absent. Shifting from donor-driven evaluations to impact evaluations has greater learning value for the organisation, and greater value when reporting back to the beneficiaries about project impact and transformational
development in their community. Public health nutritionists working in the field are well versed in the collection and interpretation of anthropometric data for evaluation of nutritional interventions such as emergency feeding programmes. These same skills can be used to conduct impact evaluations, even some time after project completion, and elucidate lessons to be learned and shared. These skills can also be applied more widely to projects which impact on the longer-term nutritional status of
communities and their food security.

Mortality, malnutrition and the humanitarian response to the food crises in Lesotho

Background: At the height of the food crisis in southern Africa, the Government of Lesotho declared a state of famine and emergency in April 2002 and launched a Famine Relief Appeal for over $137 million. World Vision, in partnership with the World Food Program, became involved in December 2002 providing food aid to affected communities.
Objective: to document mortality rates, causes of death, malnutrition prevalence, and the proportion of lost pregnancies after almost three years of humanitarian response to the food crisis in Lesotho and to propose a way forward.
Design: A two-stage, 30 cluster household survey was undertaken in three districts from the 16th to the 26th of May 2005, with a sample size of 3610 people.
Results: The crude mortality rate (CMR) of 0.8/10,000/day (95%CI: 0.7-0.9). The reported CMR was significantly lower than the CMR emergency threshold (<1/10,000/day). Using 2000 as a pre-drought baseline, 38528 excess deaths occurred between 2000 and 2005. The under-five mortality rate (U5MR) of 3.2 deaths/10,000/day (95%CI: 2.8-3.6/10,000/day) was 4 times the reported CMR and 1.4 times higher the U5MR emergency threshold for sub-Saharan Africa (2.3/10,000/day). CMR was lower among food aid beneficiaries (0.68; 95%CI: 0.57-0.79) than non-beneficiaries (1.42; 95%CI: 1.13-1.70). This was also true for U5MR (2.94; 95%CI: 2.39-3.50 versus 6.44; 95%CI: 5.21-7.68). The prevalence of wasting increased from 5.4% to 12% while that of stunting declined from 45.4% to 36.2% between 2000 and 2005, but the nutritional status did not vary by beneficiary status.
Conclusion: Despite the alarming U5MR, findings suggest that the food aid program ensured survival mainly among adults. The situation could have been catastrophic in the absence of humanitarian assistance.

Stress, resource allocation and mortality

We model the optimal allocation of limited resources of an animal during a transient stressful event such as a cold spell or the presence of a predator. The animal allocates resources between the competing demands of combating the stressor and bodily maintenance. Increased allocation to combating the stressor decreases the mortality rate from the stressor, but if too few resources are allocated to maintenance, damage builds up. A second source of mortality is associated with high levels of damage. Thus, the animal faces a trade-off between the immediate risk of mortality from the stressor and the risk of delayed mortality due to the build up of damage. We analyze how the optimal allocation of the animal depends on the mean and predictability of the length of the stressful period, the level of danger of the stressor for a given level of allocation, and the mortality consequences of damage. We also analyze the resultant levels of mortality from the stressor, from damage during the stressful event, and from damage during recovery after the stressful event ceases. Our results highlight circumstances in which most mortality occurs after the removal of the stressor. The results also highlight the importance of the predictability of the duration of the stressor and the potential importance of small detrimental drops in condition. Surprisingly, making the consequences of damage accumulation less dangerous can lead to a reallocation that allows damage to build up by so much that the level of mortality caused by damage build up is increased. Similarly, because of the dependence of allocation on the dangerousness of the stressor, making the stressor more dangerous for a given level of allocation can decrease the proportion of mortality that it causes, while the proportion of mortality caused by damage to condition increases. These results are discussed in relation to biological phenomena.