Female labour force participation, fertility and infant mortality in Australia : some empirical evidence from Granger causality tests

This study applies Granger causality tests within a multivariate error correction framework to examine the relationship between female participation rates, infant mortality rates and fertility rates for Australia using annual data from 1960 to 2000. Decomposition of variance and impulse response functions are also considered. The main findings are twofold. First, in the short run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from the fertility rate to female labour force participation and from the infant mortality rate to female labour force participation while there is neutrality between the fertility rate and infant mortality rate. Second, in the long run both the fertility rate and infant mortality rate Granger cause female labour participation.

Air pollution and infant mortality: evidence from the expansion of natural gas infrastructure

We examine the impact of widespread adoption of natural gas as a source of fuel on infant mortality in Turkey, using variation across provinces and over time in the intensity of natural gas utilisation. Our estimates indicate that the expansion of natural gas infrastructure has resulted in a significant decrease in the rate of infant mortality. Specifically, a one-percentage point increase in natural gas intensity – measured by the rate of subscriptions to natural gas services – would cause the infant mortality rate to decrease by 4%, which would translate into approximately 348 infant lives saved in 2011 alone.

Determinants of female fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001 : empirical evidence from cointegration and variance decomposition analysis

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in Taiwan over the period 1966–2001. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in Taiwan's fertility model are real income, infant mortality rate, female education and female labor force participation rate. The test for cointegration is based on the recently developed bounds testing procedure while the long-run and short-run elasticities are based on the autoregressive distributed lag model. Among our key results, female education and female labor force participation rate are found to be the key determinants of fertility in Taiwan in the long run. The variance decom-position analysis indicates that in the long run approximately 45percent of the variation in fertility is explained by the combined impact of female labor force participation, mortality and income, implying that socioeconomic development played an important role in the fertility transition in Taiwan. This result is consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis.

An econometric analysis of the determinants of fertility for China, 1952-2000

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952-2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10-12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development - consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis - played a key role in China's fertility transition.

Teaching Zambian traditional birth attendants to monitor growth of infants : evaluation of an education program

The high infant mortality in Zambia is largely attributable to malnutrition. It is exacerbated by the inability of mothers to recognise threats to nutritional status and take corrective action. Advice in ‘Health Centres’ is often inaccessible to mothers. The Traditional Birth Attendants (TBAs) work with pregnant women in local communities, and the purpose of this study was to develop and implement an educationprogram in growth monitoring and nutrition for the TBAs and then to evaluate its effects. Twenty five TBAs from two peri-urban areas of Kitwe were enrolled in this pilot study and eighteen completed the program. The researcher developed and taught a program to the TBAs over ten days. A pretest was given before the teaching program to enable the researcher to obtain information about the knowledge and skills of the TBAs. Following the teaching program the TBAs were re-tested, with the same questionnaire. Focus groups were conducted to enable the TBA to provide information on the teaching materials and the education program. The TBAs then returned to their communities and put into practice the skills and knowledge they had learned for six months. Their practice was monitored by a trained Public Health Nurse. The researcher also surveyed 38 pregnant women about their knowledge of growth monitoring and nutrition before the TBAs went into the field to work with their local communities. The same questionnaire used with the pregnant women was administered to 38 new mothers with children aged 0 to 6 months to gain information of their knowledge and skills following the work of the TBAs. The program was evaluated by assessing the extent to which TBAs knowledge and skills were increased, the knowledge and understanding of a selection of their clients and the rates of malnutrition of infants in the area under study. The results from the research clearly indicated that the teaching program on growth monitoring and nutrition given to the selected group of TBAs had a positive effect on their knowledge and skills. It was found that the teaching developed their knowledge, practical skills, evaluative skills. That they were able to give infants’ mothers sound advice regarding their children’s nutrition was revealed by the mother’s increased knowledge and the decrease in numbers of malnourished children in the study areas at the conclusion of the research. The major outcomes from the study are: that Zambian TBAs can be taught to carry out an expanded role; field experience is a key factor in the teaching program; making advice available in local communities is important; and preliminary data on the Zambian experience were generated. Recommendations are: The pilot program should be expanded with continuing support from the Health Department. Similar educational programs should be introduced into other areas of Zambia with support from the Ministry of Health. That in administering a teaching program: Sufficient time must be allocated to practical work to allow poorly educated women to attain the basic skills needed to master the complex skills required to competently reduce faltering in their communities. The teaching materials to illustrate nutritional principles for feeding programs must be developed to suite locally available foods and conditions. Methods of teaching should suit the local area, for example, using what facilities are locally available. The timing of the teaching program should be suitable for the TBAs to attend. This may vary from area to area, for example it may be necessary to avoid times traditionally given to fetching water or working in the fields. For similar reasons, the venue for the teaching program should be suitable to the TBAs. The teachers should go into the TBAs’ community rather than causing disruption of the TBAs’ day by expecting them to go to the teacher. Data should be collected from a larger group of TBAs and clients to enable sophisticated statistical analysis to complement data from this pilot program. The TBAs should be given recognition for their work and achievement. This is something which they asked for. They do not ask for payment, rather acknowledgment through regular follow up and approbation.

Maternal health in Lao PDR : repositioning the goal posts

This paper reviews attempts made in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) to achieve Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5: Improve Maternal Health and its two targets: (1) to reduce by three quarters the maternal mortality ratio and (2) to achieve universal access to reproductive health. It will be shown that significant strides have been made in relation to both the targets, especially in the province of Xayaboury where the contraceptive prevalence rate is the highest and maternal mortality is the lowest in the country. That said, it is unlikely that either target will be realised by 2015 for the nation as a whole. Some of the reasons for this are canvassed such as problems with the existing health infrastructure and its personnel, the cost of health care, the demographic profile and cultural expectations of women of childbearing age, geographic barriers, the absence of communication and transport infrastructure and the influence of international donors on how monies are expended. As discussions now begin to set the framework for the post-MDG compact of the international community to address poverty and well-being, it would be valuable to consider the multiplicity of factors which directly impact maternal and infant mortality rates (such as family planning, age at first birth, access to antenatal care and government expenditure on maternal health care) and explain what causes change, over non-contextualised statistics that simply report changes.

Height, aging and cognitive abilities across Europe

Previous research has found that as a marker of childhood circumstances, height is correlated with cognitive functioning at older ages. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and about 17,000 respondents from 11 countries, we find that height is positively and significantly associated with cognitive functioning in later life despite controlling for a myriad of possible confounding factors. A 10 cm increase in height is associated with a 0.04 standard deviation increase in a summary cognitive score (mean 0.02, std. dev. 0.77). We find that being born in a country where the infant mortality rate at the time of birth is high has a negative and significant influence on cognitive functioning in later life. A 10% increase in the infant mortality rate is associated with a 0.1 standard deviation decrease in the summary cognitive score. We also find some evidence that height serves as a protective factor against age related deterioration in cognitive functioning. For persons of average stature, age related decreases in cognition scores are 3–5 percentage points smaller if they move up a quartile in the height distribution. Our results also suggest that there is a significant positive association between height and cognitive abilities across countries for this pre-1950 birth cohort of respondents, with correlations ranging from 0.4 to 0.8.

Preterm birth prediction : deriving stable and interpretable rules from high dimensional data

Preterm births occur at an alarming rate of 10-15%. Preemies have a higher risk of infant mortality, developmental retardation and long-term disabilities. Predicting preterm birth is difficult, even for the most experienced clinicians. The most well-designed clinical study thus far reaches a modest sensitivity of 18.2-24.2% at specificity of 28.6-33.3%. We take a different approach by exploiting databases of normal hospital operations. We aims are twofold: (i) to derive an easy-to-use, interpretable prediction rule with quantified uncertainties, and (ii) to construct accurate classifiers for preterm birth prediction. Our approach is to automatically generate and select from hundreds (if not thousands) of possible predictors using stability-aware techniques. Derived from a large database of 15,814 women, our simplified prediction rule with only 10 items has sensitivity of 62.3% at specificity of 81.5%.

Mortality trends among people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Australia: 1997-2010

OBJECTIVE: With improvements in cardiovascular disease (CVD) rates among people with diabetes, mortality rates may also be changing. However, these trends may be influenced by coding practices of CVD-related deaths on death certificates. We analyzed trends of mortality over 13 years in people with diabetes and quantified the potential misclassification of CVD mortality according to current coding methods. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 1,136,617 Australians with diabetes registered on the National Diabetes Services Scheme between 1997 and 2010 were linked to the National Death Index. Excess mortality relative to the Australian population was reported as standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Potential misclassification of CVD mortality was determined by coding CVD according to underlying cause of death (COD) and then after consideration of both the underlying and other causes listed in part I of the death certificate. RESULTS: For type 1 diabetes, the SMR decreased in males from 4.20 in 1997 to 3.08 in 2010 (Ptrend < 0.001) and from 3.92 to 3.46 in females (Ptrend < 0.01). For type 2 diabetes, the SMR decreased in males from 1.40 to 1.21 (Ptrend < 0.001) and from 1.56 to 1.22 in females (Ptrend < 0.001). CVD deaths decreased from 35.6 to 31.2% and from 31.5 to 27.2% in males and females with type 1 diabetes, respectively (Ptrend < 0.001 for both sexes). For type 2 diabetes, CVD decreased from 44.5 to 29.2% in males and from 45.5 to 31.6% in females (Ptrend < 0.001 for both sexes). Using traditional coding methods, ∼38 and 26% of CVD deaths are underestimated in type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause and CVD mortality has decreased in diabetes. However, the total CVD mortality burden is underestimated when only underlying COD is considered. This has important ramifications for understanding mortality patterns in diabetes.