Is the Genuine Progress Indicator really genuine? Considering well-being impacts of exports and imports

The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) is estimated as if nations operate within a closed economy. Therefore, in terms of coverage, the GPI is most analogous to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Indeed, within the relevant literature, these two indicators are most often contrasted. However, consideration should be given to adapting the GPI, so it has more in common with Gross National Income (GNI). As with GDP, the GPI is concerned only with a particular physical location. Yet, it may be more effective if the GPI was freed from these physical boundaries in a similar manner to GNI. The GPI should be concerned more with the 'ownership' of the costs and benefits associated with economic growth than with the 'location' of those costs and benefits. Those that derive the most benefit from exploitation of the environment are often physically removed from the location of that damage. The GPI does not consider the net consumers of the negative externalities of environmental costs, merely the producers. Currently, however, the structure of the GPI allows a nation to enjoy, without penalty, the benefits of importing goods from countries which bear a disproportionately large cost of environmental degradation. This results in an overstatement of the real progress experienced by the county importing 'dirty goods'. This paper will investigate how certain GPI adjustments may be adapted to overcome this present shortcoming. However, the purpose of this paper is not only to empirically implement this new approach, but also to stimulate debate as to its potential merit.

Forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, 2003-2020

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to forecast Fiji's exports and imports for the period 2003-2020.

Design/methodology/approach – To achieve the goal of this paper, the autoregressive moving average with explanatory variables (ARMAX) model was applied. To this end, the paper drew on the published export demand model and the import demand model of Narayan and Narayan for Fiji.

Findings – The paper's main findings are: Fiji's imports will outperform exports over the 2003-2020 period; and current account deficits will escalate to be around F$934.4 million on average over the 2003-2020 period.

Originality/value – Exports and imports are crucial for macroeconomic policymaking. It measures the degree of openness of a country and it signals the trade balance and current account balances. This has implications for inflation and exchange rate. By forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, the paper provides policy makers with a set of information that will be useful for devising macroeconomic policies.

Are exports and imports cointegrated? Evidence from two Pacific Island countries

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there is long-run relationship between exports and imports for two Pacific Island Countries -- Fiji and Papua New Guinea (PNG). This is an important issue because long-run convergence will ensure that trade imbalances are sustainable. We explore this issue using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration and find that while exports and imports for Fiji and PNG are indeed cointegrated, the coefficient on exports is unity only in the case of Fiji. These results imply that Fiji satisfies the strong form of its intertemporal budget constraint while PNG satisfies only the weak form of its intertemporal budget constraint.

Are exports and imports cointegrated? Evidence from 22 least developed countries

The aim of this article is to investigate whether there is a long-run relationship (cointegration) between exports and imports for 22 least developed countries (LDCs). This is an important issue, for evidence of cointegration will ensure that trade imbalances are sustainable. The article explores this issue using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The results indicate that exports and imports are cointegrated only for six out of the 22 countries, and the coefficient on exports is less than one.

Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework

This paper estimates an import demand model for Fiji using the recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration for the period 1972 to 1999. To estimate the long-run elasticities, we use three approaches: the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) approach and the fully modified ordinary least squares technique. Our results indicate a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables when import volume is the dependent variable. We find that the coefficient on income is elastic while the coefficient on relative prices (import price relative to domestic price) is unitary elastic in the long run. The error correction mechanism reveals that after any shock(s) to the determinants of import demand equilibrium is attained after 2 1/2 years.

Determinants of intra-ASEAN exports and imports

Analyses the factors which explain the behaviour of intro-ASEAN exports and imports including the real exchange rate, real income, the industrial production capacity, and other factors; namely foreign direct investment and industrialisation policies, regionalism and emerging new markets.

Globalisation and manufacturing strategy in the TCF industry

Purpose – The textiles, clothing, and footwear (TCF) industry has struggled in Australia since the government commenced dismantling tariffs. By sourcing from Asia, middlemen undercut established suppliers, and retail chains set benchmark low prices with their imported “house” labels. The policy-makers predicted that local producers would become more efficient, and export to make up for lost sales, but the media paints a picture of rising imports, retrenchments, and factory closures. The research objective was to discover what strategies the survivors (actually) employ in adapting to the pressures of globalisation.

Design/methodology/approach – More than 30 companies were involved in the study, ranging from small family businesses to subsidiaries of big multinationals. Each case study was based on an interview with a senior executive, normally followed by a plant tour. This methodology suits a fresh topic, as it avoids preconceptions and imposes no bounds.

Findings – Results show that the policy change was based on “pie in the sky” forecasts. Increasingly, TCF production is transferred to cheap offshore locations, generally via subcontracting plus the “badging” of foreign designs. To survive, local factories should focus on quality and customer service, preferably in niche markets (like uniforms), or for specific customer groups, and develop technologically advanced products. A move down the supply chain into retailing can also assist. Large multinational corporations that engage in foreign direct investment dominate the management literature.

Originality/value – This paper presents a different perspective, neglected in international operations management, whereby domestically oriented businesses attempt to defend themselves against the adverse consequences of globalisation.

Leontief paradox and the role of factor intensity measurement

In contrast with the prediction of the Heckscher-Ohlin (HO) theorem, Leontief (1953) found that the capital-labor ratio embodied in the US exports is smaller than the capital-labor ratio embodied in the US competitive import replacements. In Leontief's analysis, the measured factor content of US imports is computed based on the assumption that all countries are using the US factor intensity techniques. This paper relaxes all assumption of identical factor intensity techniques. It uses an inferring method to infer the factor intensity techniques of different countries based on international relative factor price differences. With the inferred differentiated factor intensity techniques , the Leontief paradox is re-investigated and is found to be either disappeared or eased.

Product specialization in international trade : a further investigation

In an influential paper, Schott [Schott. Peter K. (2004). “Across-product versus within-product specialization in international trade.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119 (2): 647–678] makes two empirical observations about U.S. imports. (1) The United States is increasingly sourcing the same product (however narrowly defined) from both developed and developing countries. That is, ‘across-product specialization’ has been decreasing. (2) The unit values of these multiple-sourced products are positively and significantly correlated with the capital and skill abundance of exporters and with the capital–labor ratios used by exporters. That is, endowments-driven ‘within-product specialization’ has been increasing. We show that both these observations extend to the imports of Brazil, India and Japan. However, our main finding is that observation (1) is largely driven by two factors. First, China is the dominant low-wage exporter of multiple-sourced products. Second, the most developed countries remain the primary exporters of multiple-sourced products. The U.S. case is the most extreme of our four importers: When China is deleted from the U.S. import data there is no trend in across-product specialization and rich exporters are increasing their trade share of multiple-sourced products. Since deleting China has no theoretical justification, these results must be viewed not as a contradiction of Schott's work but as a way of deepening our understanding of his empirical results.

A panel data analysis of the military expenditure-external debt nexus : evidence from six middle eastern countries

While a number of studies examine the nexus between military expenditure and economic growth, little consideration has been give to the effect of military expenditure on external debt. This article examines the impact of military expenditure and income on external debt for a panel of six Middle Eastern countries - Oman, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Iran, and Jordan - over the period 1988 to 2002. The Middle East represents an interesting study of the effect of military expenditure on external debt because it has one of the highest rates of arms imports in the world and it is one of the most indebted regions in the world. The study first establishes whether there is a long-run relationship between military expenditure, income, and external debt in the six countries using a panel unit root and panel cointegration framework and then proceeds to estimate the long-run and short-run effects of military expenditure and income on external debt. The study finds that external debt is elastic with respect to military expenditure in the long run and inelastic with respect to military expenditure in the short run. For the panel of six Middle Eastern countries, in the long run a 1% increase in military expenditure results in between a 1.1 % and 1.6% increase in external debt, while a 1% increase in income reduces external debt by between 0.6% and 0.8%, depending on the specific estimator employed. In the short run, a 1% increase in military expenditure increases external debt by 0.2%, while the effect of income on external debt is statistically insignificant.

Ongoing colonial legacy : contemporary education beliefs and practices in Papua New Guinea

In the late 1980ˇ¦s, a realisation that the western education system bequeathed to Papua New Guinea at the time of Independence had functioned to devalue and marginalise many of the traditional beliefs, knowledge and skills students brought with them to education, led to a period of significant education reform. The Reform was premised on the report of a Ministerial Review Committee called A Philosophy of Education. This report made recommendations about how education in Papua New Guinea could respond to the issues and challenges this nation faced as it sought to chart a course to serve the needs of its citizens on its own terms. The issues associated with managing and implementing institutionalised educational change premised on importing western values and practices are a central theme of this thesis. The impact of importing foreign curriculum and associated curriculum officers and consultants to assist with curriculum change and development in the former Language and Literacy unit of the Curriculum Development Division, is considered in three related sections of this report: „P a critical review of the imported educational system and related practices and related issues since Independence „P narrative report of the experience of two colleagues in western education „P evidential research based on curriculum Reform in the Language and Literacy Unit. How Papua New Guinea has sought to come to terms with the issues and challenges that arose in response to a practice of importing western curriculum both at the time of Independence and currently through the Reform, are explored throughout the thesis. The findings issues reveal much about the capacity of individuals and institutions to respond to a post-colonial world particularly associated with an ongoing colonial legacy in the principle researcherˇ¦s work context. The thesis argues that the challenges Papua New Guinea curriculum officers face today, as they manage and implement changes associated with another imported curriculum are caught up in existing power relations. These power relations function to stifle creative thinking at a time when it is most needed. Further, these power relations are not well understood by the curriculum officers and remained hidden and unquestioned throughout the research project. The thesis also argues that in the researcherˇ¦s work context, techniques of surveillance were brought to bear and functioned to curtail critical thinking about how the reformed curriculum could be sensitive and respectful of those beliefs and traditions that had sustained life in Papua New Guinea for thousands of years. Consequently, many outmoded beliefs and practices associated with an uncritical and ongoing acceptance of the superiority of western imports have been retained, thereby effectively denying the collective voices of Paua New Guineans in the current curriculum Reform.

An empirical analysis of Fiji’s import demand function

Purpose – This paper aims to estimate a disaggregated import demand model for Fiji using relative prices, total consumption, investment expenditure and export expenditure variables for the period 1970 to 2000.

Design/methodology/approach – The recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration to test for a long run relationship is used, while the autoregressive distributed lag model is used to estimate short run and long run elasticities. These methodologies are shown to perform well in small sample sizes, particularly given that the bounds F-test critical values for small sample sizes generated by Narayan in 2004 and 2005 are used.

Findings – Amongst the key results it is found: a long run cointegration relationship among the variables when import demand is the dependent variable; and import demand to be inelastic and statistically significant at the 1 per cent level with respect to all the explanatory variables in both the long-run and the short-run.

Originality/value – The disaggregated import demand model estimated here provides a complete picture of the determinants of Fiji's imports. This model can be used by Fijian policy makers to draw pertinent policies and forecast import demand for Fiji.

A question of continuing control -balancing building quality of housing and building codes

The Building Code of Australia seeks to establish “nationally consistent, minimum necessary standards of relevant, health, safety (including structural safety and safety from fire), amenity and sustainability objectives efficiently”. These goals are laudable – but where are the goals of quality and maintenance, which are also an essential part of achieving adequate and continuing health and safety for the built environment?

Defects such as dampness, settlement and cracking, staining, wood rot, termite damage, rusting, and roof leakage are common enough to suggest that there are still issues with building quality in housing. They are caused by a combination of initial poor workmanship and poor quality materials and latterly by poorly executed or inadequate maintenance.

Local architecture, developed over many years of trial and error, produce buildings linked to their climate and local materials (think of the typical “Queenslander” house). Today’s architecture imports technologies and materials from many differing countries and climates – that are not necessarily suitable for the location, nor is there necessarily the same quality control over the material quality and production. Inappropriate use and inadequate understanding of new materials and techniques can lead to the generation of further defects.

Whilst the building code contains provisions for initial-build material quality and workmanship, there is no continuing control over a house over its life span. Reliance is placed on advertising the need, for example, to employ qualified tradespeople; replace batteries in smoke detectors; and other good advice to help maintain housing to a minimum standard. Is this sufficient?

Mechanisms to make the transfer of knowledge to those who need to use it – be it the workforce or the houseowner – need to be improved. Should the building code be more visual and accessible in it’s content? Should the building code include provisions for maintenance? Should the building code require every house to have a “users manual” – much like a car? An extensive review of literature identifies the scale of the problem of poor quality housing and highlights some suggested causes – inadequate knowledge of the BCA by general housebuilders being one. However little work has been done to investigate what could be done to improve the situation. This work suggests that improvements to knowledge transfer would improve the quality of housing and a model of the knowledge transfer process is proposed, identifying those areas where the knowledge flows need to occur that would impact both the builders and users of housing.