Speculative fictions for understanding global change environments: two thought experiments

The purpose of a thought experiment, as the term was used by quantum and relativity physicists in the early part of the twentieth century, was not prediction (as is the goal of classical experimental science), but more defensible representations of present ‘realities’. Speculative fictions, from Mary Shelley's Frankenstein to the Star Wars cinema saga, can be read as sociotechnical thought experiments that produce alternative representations of present circumstances and uncertainties, and anticipate and critique possible futures. In this essay I demonstrate how two examples of popular speculative fictions, Frank Herbert's Dune (1965) and Ursula Le Guin's The Telling (2000), function as thought experiments that problematise global transitions in their respective eras. I argue that critical readings of such stories can help us to anticipate, critique, and respond constructively to social and cultural changes and change environments within nation-states that constitute, and are constituted by, global change processes and their effects.

Global change and health - the good, the bad, and the evidence

Debates over the merits and demerits of globalisation for health are increasingly polarised. Conclusions range from globalisation being essentially positive for health, albeit with a need to smooth out some rough edges, to one of utter condemnation, with adverse effects on the majority of the world's population. Anyone wading into this debate is immediately confronted by seemingly irreconcilable differences in ideology, opinion and interests. Both camps agree that global changes are occurring, and with them many of the determinants of population health status. While some skepticism persists about whether “globalisation” has value beyond being a fashionable buzzword, most agree that we need better understanding of these changes. Two difficult questions arise: (i) What are the health impacts of these changes; and (ii) how can we respond more effectively to them? To move beyond the stand-offs that have already formed within the health community, this paper reviews the main empirical evidence that currently exists, summarises key points of debate that remain, and suggests some ways forward for the research and policy communities. In particular, there is need for an informed and inclusive debate about the positive and negative health consequences of globalisation.

Population-level perspectives on global change : genetic and demographic analyses indicate various scales, timing, and causes of scyphozoan jellyfish blooms

Whether a perceived increase in the abundance of jellyfishes is related to changing marine environments has been considered primarily using large-scale analyses of multi-species assemblages. Yet jellyfish blooms-rapid increases in the biomass of pelagic coelenterate species-are single-species demographic events. Using published and new genetic analyses and population surveys, we investigate whether there may be a critical knowledge gap between the scales of recent analyses and the scales of natural phenomena. We find that scyphomedusae may show population genetic structure over scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers, that environments vary regionally and locally, and that populations of medusae can display uncorrelated dynamics on these scales. These findings suggest genetic differences between populations and/or environmental differences between sites are important determinants of population dynamics in these jellyfishes. Moreover, the local abundance of medusae may be most strongly correlated with preceding rather than current local environmental conditions, indicating there is a cumulative time-course to the formation of 'blooms'. Broad-scale macro-ecological analyses will need to build from coordinated, long-term, fine-grained studies to synthesize, rather than mask, population-level phenomena in larger-scale analyses. © 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland.

Designer policy for carbon and biodiversity co-benefits under global change

Carbon payments can help mitigate both climate change and biodiversity decline through the reforestation of agricultural land. However, to achieve biodiversity co-benefits, carbon payments often require support from other policy mechanisms such as regulation, targeting, and complementary incentives. We evaluated 14 policy mechanisms for supplying carbon and biodiversity co-benefits through reforestation of carbon plantings (CP) and environmental plantings (EP) in Australia's 85.3 Mha agricultural land under global change. The reference policy - uniform payments (bidders are paid the same price) with land-use competition (both CP and EP eligible for payments), targeting carbon - achieved significant carbon sequestration but negligible biodiversity co-benefits. Land-use regulation (only EP eligible) and two additional incentives complementing the reference policy (biodiversity premium, carbon levy) increased biodiversity co-benefits, but mostly inefficiently. Discriminatory payments (bidders are paid their bid price) with land-use competition were efficient, and with multifunctional targeting of both carbon and biodiversity co-benefits increased the biodiversity co-benefits almost 100-fold. Our findings were robust to uncertainty in global outlook, and to key agricultural productivity and land-use adoption assumptions. The results suggest clear policy directions, but careful mechanism design will be key to realising these efficiencies in practice. Choices remain for society about the amount of carbon and biodiversity co-benefits desired, and the price it is prepared to pay for them.

Biotic effects of climate change in urban environments: The case of the grey-headed flying-fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) in Melbourne, Australia

Urban climates are known to differ from those of the surrounding rural areas, as human activities in cities lead to changes in temperature, humidity and wind regimes. These changes can in turn affect the geographic distribution of species, the behaviour of animals and the phenology of plants. The grey-headed flying-fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) is a large, nomadic bat from eastern Australia that roosts in large colonies known as camps. Historically a warm temperate to tropical species, P. poliocephalus recently established a year-round camp in the Royal Botanic Gardens Melbourne. Using a bioclimatic analysis, we demonstrated that on the basis of long-term data, Melbourne does not fall within the climatic range of other P. poliocephalus camp sites in Australia. Melbourne is drier than other summer camps, and cooler and drier than other winter camps. The city also receives less radiation, in winter and annually, than the other summer and winter camps of P. poliocephalus. However, we found that temperatures in central Melbourne have been increasing since the 1950s, leading to warmer conditions and a reduction in the number of frosts. In addition, artificial watering of parks and gardens in the city may contribute the equivalent of 590 mm (95% CI: 450–720 mm) of extra rainfall per year. It appears that human activities have increased temperatures and effective precipitation in central Melbourne, creating a more suitable climate for camps of the grey-headed flying-fox. As demonstrated by this example, anthropogenic climate change is likely to complicate further the task of conserving biological diversity in urban environments.

Late palaeozoic global changes affecting high-latitude environments and biotas : an introduction

The Late Palaeozoic Ice Age (LPIA), spanning approximately from ~320 Ma (Serpukhovian, late Mississippian) to 290 Ma (mid-Sakmarian, Early Permian), represents the vegetated Earth’s largest and most long-lasting regime of severe and multiple glaciations, involving processes and patterns probably comparable to those of the Last Ice Age. Accompanying the LPIA occurred a number of broadly synchronous global environmental and biotic changes. These global changes, as briefly reviewed and summarized in this introductory paper, comprised (but are not limited to) the following: massive continental reorganization in the lead up to the final assembly of Pangea resulting in profound changes in global palaeogeography, palaeoceanography and palaeobiogeogarphy; substantially lowered global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (pCO₂), coupled with an unprecedented increase in atmospheric oxygen concentrations reaching Earth's all-time high in its last 600 million year history; sharp global temperature and sea-level drops (albeit with considerable spatial and temporal variability throughout the ice age); and apparently a prolonged period of global sluggish macro-evolution with both low extinction and origination rates compared to other times. In the aftermath of the LPIA, the world's climate entered into a transitional climate phase through the late Early to Middle Permian before its transformation into a greenhouse state towards the end-Permian. In recent years, considerable amount of data and interpretations have been published concerning the physical evidence in support of the LPIA, its broad timeframe and eustatic and ecosystem responses from the lower latitudes, but relatively less attention has been drawn to the impact of the ice age on late Palaeozoic high-latitude environments and biotas. It is with this mission in mind that we have organized this special issue, with the central focus on late Palaeozoic high latitude regions of both hemispheres, that is, Gondwana and northern Eurasia. Our aim is to gather a set of papers that not only document the physical environmental changes that had occurred in the polar regions of Gondwana and northern Eurasia during the LPIA, but also review on the biotic responses at different taxonomic, ecological and spatial scales to these physical changes in a refined chronological timeframe.

This introductory paper is designed to provide a global context for the special issue, with a brief review of key late Palaeozoic global environmental changes (including: changes in global land-sea configurations, atmospheric chemistry, global climate regimes, global ocean circulation patterns and sea levels) and large -scale biotic (biogeographic and evolutionary) responses, followed by a summary of what we see as unresolved scientific issues and various working hypotheses concerning late Palaeozoic global changes and, in particular, the LPIA, as a possible reference to future research.

Ecophysiology of avian migration in the face of current global hazards

Long-distance migratory birds are often considered extreme athletes, possessing a range of traits that approach the physiological limits of vertebrate design. In addition, their movements must be carefully timed to ensure that they obtain resources of sufficient quantity and quality to satisfy their high-energy needs. Migratory birds may therefore be particularly vulnerable to global change processes that are projected to alter the quality and quantity of resource availability. Because long-distance flight requires high and sustained aerobic capacity, even minor decreases in vitality can have large negative consequences for migrants. In the light of this, we assess how current global change processes may affect the ability of birds to meet the physiological demands of migration, and suggest areas where avian physiologists may help to identify potential hazards. Predicting the consequences of global change scenarios on migrant species requires (i) reconciliation of empirical and theoretical studies of avian flight physiology; (ii) an understanding of the effects of food quality, toxicants and disease on migrant performance; and (iii) mechanistic models that integrate abiotic and biotic factors to predict migratory behaviour. Critically, a multi-dimensional concept of vitality would greatly facilitate evaluation of the impact of various global change processes on the population dynamics of migratory birds.

Predicting the likely response of data-poor ecosystems to climate change using space-for-time substitution across domains

Predicting ecological response to climate change is often limited by a lack of relevant local data from which directly applicable mechanistic models can be developed. This limits predictions to qualitative assessments or simplistic rules of thumb in data-poor regions, making management of the relevant systems difficult. We demonstrate a method for developing quantitative predictions of ecological response in data-poor ecosystems based on a space-for-time substitution, using distant, well-studied systems across an inherent climatic gradient to predict ecological response. Changes in biophysical data across the spatial gradient are used to generate quantitative hypotheses of temporal ecological responses that are then tested in a target region. Transferability of predictions among distant locations, the novel outcome of this method, is demonstrated via simple quantitative relationships that identify direct and indirect impacts of climate change on physical, chemical and ecological variables using commonly available data sources. Based on a limited subset of data, these relationships were demonstrably plausible in similar yet distant (>2000 km) ecosystems. Quantitative forecasts of ecological change based on climate-ecosystem relationships from distant regions provides a basis for research planning and informed management decisions, especially in the many ecosystems for which there are few data. This application of gradient studies across domains - to investigate ecological response to climate change - allows for the quantification of effects on potentially numerous, interacting and complex ecosystem components and how they may vary, especially over long time periods (e.g. decades). These quantitative and integrated long-term predictions will be of significant value to natural resource practitioners attempting to manage data-poor ecosystems to prevent or limit the loss of ecological value. The method is likely to be applicable to many ecosystem types, providing a robust scientific basis for estimating likely impacts of future climate change in ecosystems where no such method currently exists.

The blind men and the elephant : music education in a changing world

Education provides unique opportunities for individuals to develop their full character as Australian citizens who can play a part in the shaping of the future. All educational settings have an important role to play in bridging differences and promoting mutual respect, tolerance and understanding between people of different races, cultures, and religions. The curriculum is one component of the wider educational milieu that should be 'an enabling mechanism that nurtures adjustment to change, and simultaneously provides a roadmap of expectation' (Bruniges, 2005, p.15). As the rate and diversity of both local and global change accelerates, education continues to be faced with a multiplicity of challenges. The ways in which we respond to this will influence both the society and the curriculum that we design, implement and evaluate. Currently music educators implementing the Victorian Essential Learning Standards (VELS) are faced with the challenge of developing multicultural practices that align with both curriculum initiatives and create authentic experiences for students. As in the well-known story of the blind men and the elephant, teachers are faced with resources that offer only a shallow introduction to what is a multifaceted field. The question we pose is: 'How do educators embrace a vast range of cultural and social dimensions in our school music programmes without being like a blind man, grasping only one perspective of an extensive and complex whole?'

The valuation of fast-food outlets : analysis, methodology, and reliability

Fast-food outlets are a significant subsector of the hospitality and tourism property market in Australia, and have experienced significant growth and global change in the past 20 years. However, little attention has been given in professional and academic literature to the valuation methodology and analysis of these properties. This article proposes a working definition of a fast-food outlet, traces recent changes in the structure of the fast-food industry, investigates the major determinants of value with respect to asset value, and examines to what extent these have changed. In particular, it isolates the role of goodwill in assessing going-concern value.

The simplicity of educational reforms : defining globalization and reframing educational policies during the 1990s

Reviewing the trends in educational reforms from the last decade provides opportunity for policy makers to understand the issues from the past with a view to improving the educational planning in the future. In the 90s globalization emerged as a great impetus for educational reforms, however a central problem concerning globalization was its full meaning and implications were still emergent therefore educational planning and policy making reflected a great deal of uncertainty. This paper reviews and analyses how educational policies from the 90s constructed globalization and uncertainty and whether the lessons from the 90s have implications for current policy making. Using computer assisted text analysis, this paper explores how educational policies from OECD, UNESCO and the World Bank coalesced with certain notions of globalisation that strategically guided educational reforms. By focusing on textual evidence, in a range of education policy from the 90s, the paper discusses how policy consolidated particular ideas about globalization and presented ‘simple’ recipes for educational change. When reviewing the 90s, the relationship between education and global change the macro policy research shows a trend towards narrowing focus on managerial and financial issues, specifically the paper discusses how OECD policy emphasized education a social and individual payoff, World Bank policy focused on education enabling the free flow of capital and UNESCO policy problematised globalization but focused on the importance of teachers as a way to create stability in education during the paradoxical times.

Payoff, capital and teachers : education policies of the 90s

Although education remains in the flux of change, reviewing the trends in educational reforms in the last decade provides opportunity to learn from the past with a view to improving the educational strategies guiding reforms in the future. As globalisation has become more consolidated in education policy, investigating how particular ideas about globalisation inhabited policy and established over time, presents ways of addressing and challenging the assumptions about education and globalization in the 90s and the fall out from these ideas. Using evidence based policy research, this paper explores how educational policies from OECD, UNESCO and the World Bank coalesced with certain notions of globalisation that strategically guided educational reforms. An analysis of education-globalisation nexus in the policies of OECD, UNESCO and the World Bank evidences the distinct character and agenda of each agency. By focusing on textual evidence, in a range of education policy from the 90s, the paper discusses how policy consolidated particular ideas about globalization and presented ‘simple’ recipes for educational change. When reviewing the 90s, the relationship between education and global change shows that OECD policy emphasized education as a social and individual payoff, World Bank policy focused on education creating certainty enabling the free flow of capital, and UNESCO policy problematised globalization and focused on the importance of teachers as a way to create stability in education during the paradoxical times.

Does agricultural food provide a good alternative to a natural diet for body store deposition in geese?

Over the past decades most goose populations have become increasingly dependent on agricultural crops during wintering and migration periods. The suitability of agricultural crops to support all nutritional requirements of migratory geese for the deposition of body stores has been questioned; feeding on agricultural crops may yield higher rates of fat deposition at the cost of reduced protein accretion due to an unbalanced diet. We compared amino-acid composition of forage, and investigated food-habitat use and dynamics and composition of body stores deposited by barnacle geese feeding on agricultural pasture and in natural salt marsh during spring migratory preparation. Overall content and composition of amino acids was similar among forage from both habitats and appeared equally suitable for protein accretion. There was no relationship between body composition of geese and their preferred food habitat. Fat and wet protein contributed with 67% and 33%, respectively, to body stores gained at a rate of 11 g/d throughout the one-month study period. We found no evidence of impaired protein accretion in geese using agricultural grassland compared to natural salt marsh. Our study supports the hypothesis that the expansion of feeding habitat by including agricultural grassland has played an important role in the recent growth of the East Atlantic flyway population of barnacle geese and other herbivorous waterbirds. Feeding refuges of improved grassland provide geese with an adequate diet for the deposition of body stores crucial for spring migration and subsequent reproduction, thereby alleviating the conflict with agriculture.