Simulating urban growth in a developing nation's region using a cellular automata-based model

Urbanization is one of the most evident global changes. Research in the field of urban growth modelling has generated models that explore for drivers and components of the urban growth dynamics. Cellular automata (CA) modeling is one of the recent advances, and a number of CA-based models of urban growth have produced satisfactory simulations of spatial urban expansion over time. Most application and test of CA-based models of urban growth which provide likely and reliable simulations has been developed in urban regions of developed nations; urban regions in the United States, in particular. This is because most of the models were developed in universities and research centers of developed nations, and these regions have the required data, which is extensive. Most of the population growth in the world, however, occurs in the developing world. While some European countries show signs of stabilization of their population, in less developed countries, such as India, population still grows exponentially. And this growth is normally uncoordinated, which results in serious environmental and social problems in urban areas. Therefore, the use of existing dynamic–spatial models of urban growth in regions of developing nations could be a means to assist planners and decision makers of these regions to understand and simulate the process of urban growth and test the results of different development strategies. The pattern of growth of urban regions of developing nations, however, seems to be different of the pattern of developed countries. The former use to be more dense and centralized, normally expanding outwards from consolidated urban areas; while the second is normally more fragmented and sparse. The present paper aims to investigate to how extent existing CA-based urban growth models tested in developed nations can also be applied to a developing country urban area. The urban growth model was applied to Porto Alegre City, Brazil. An expected contiguous expansion from existing urban areas has been obtained as following the historical trends of growth of the region. Moreover, the model was sensitive and able to portray different pattern of growth in the study area by changing the value of its parameters.

Growth of highly versus moderately trained competitive female artistic gymnasts

Purpose: To investigate whether growth was adversely affected in 137 young competitive female artistic gymnasts involved in different training volumes.

Methods: This was a 2-yr prospective cohort study in which height, sitting height, leg length, weight, skinfolds, and pubertal status were measured in competitive advanced (20–27 h·wk-1) and intermediate (7.5–22 h·wk-1) training level female gymnasts every 6–12 months. Biological parameters of the adolescent growth curve were estimated using the Preece–Baines growth model. Growth rates were estimated for both groups from the mixed-longitudinal data.

Results: Estimated ages at peak height velocity (PHV) (13–13.5 yr) and mean PHV (6.2–6.4 cm·yr-1) for the advanced- and intermediate-level gymnasts suggest that these gymnasts were later maturing and experienced a blunting of the growth spurt relative to reference values for U.S. youth. Comparison of growth velocities by pubertal status revealed that height velocity was lower in the advanced- versus the intermediate-level peripubertal gymnasts, which was due to a significant reduction in sitting height velocity (2.3 vs 3.1 cm·yr-1, P. < 0.05). No marked acceleration in height or sitting height velocity was detected in the advanced-level gymnasts from pre- to peripuberty. Inspection of individual growth rates revealed that over 35% of the pre- and peripubertal gymnasts experienced growth faltering (height velocity less than 4.5 cm·yr-1) during follow-up.

Conclusion: Advanced–and intermediate–training level competitive female gymnasts tend to exhibit an adolescent growth spurt that is similar in timing and tempo to short, normal, slowly maturing girls, but the high frequency of growth faltering suggests that training may alter the tempo of growth and maturation in some, but not all, female gymnasts.

Integration of 3-PG into SWAT to simulate the growth of evergreen forests

SWAT cannot accurately simulate the seasonal fluctuations or the long-term trend of the Leaf Area Index (LAI) of evergreen forests. This deficiency has detrimental impacts for the prediction of interception and transpiration, two processes that have a significant influence on catchment water yield. This paper details the integration of the forest growth model 3-PG with SWAT to improve the simulation of LAI for evergreen forests. The integrated model, called SWAT/3-PG, was applied to the Woady Yaloak River Catchment in southern Australia where eucalyptus forests and pine plantations account for 30% of the total land use. SWAT/3-PG simulated the LAI of eucalypts and pines more accurately and realistically than the original version of SWAT. Forest LAI simulated by SWAT/3-PG agreed reasonably well with estimates of forest LAI derived independently from a Landsat satellite image. SWAT/3- PG has considerable value as a tool that managers can utilise to predict the impacts of land use change in catchments where evergreen forests are prevalent.

Foreign aid, leisure-effort choice, and economic growth

Using an endogenous growth model, this paper examines the growth and welfare effects of foreign aid in the recipient economy. The emphasis is on the incentive factor of the effort-leisure choice. Besides financing public services, part of the aid is transferred to the public. This increases individual wealth, thereby providing less incentives to individuals for human capital acquisition, but with more leisure. Thus, foreign aid may not always help the growth and welfare of the economy. Taking this incentive factor into account, we further study the issue on aid allocation in achieving the highest levels of growth and welfare. Along the balanced growth path, aid allocation for welfare maximization is different from that under growth maximization.

Pollution, health and economic growth

This paper examines the growth impacts of aid allocation on healthcare and pollution abatement in an endogenous growth model, and finds that the aid tied to them contributes positively to the equilibrium growth rate. Nonetheless, the growth rate can be reduced or even impaired if the ratio of aid on pollution abatement is lowered.

Coal - the black gold of economic growth in China: empirical evidence and the role of cleaner coal technologies in recent time

Coal comprises 70 per cent of China’s primary energy source and 80 per cent of China's electricity generation. This study investigates the long-run relationship between coal consumption-economic growth nexus considering both supply and demand side models in a multivariate framework over the period of 1978 and 2010. Our innovation in this paper is to include a coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator into the economic growth model ; and trade exposure in coal demand. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach, we find improvement in coal-to-efficiency indicator causes almost 35 per cent increase in real GDP in the long-run. The Toda-Yamamoto approach of causality test indicates unidirectional causality from coal consumption to economic growth; feedback effect both for coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator to economic growth and openness to coal consumption. For robustness check, using the generalised forecast error variance decomposition method we forecast the validity of causal relationships beyond the sample horizon. The paper suggests the role of advanced coal technologies will play a significant role along with other environmental and energy policies in maintaining sustainable economic growth in China .

Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.

Tourism, guest workers, and resident immiserization

This paper analyses the impact of a boom in tourism on the welfare of the residents in the presence of guest workers. Guest workers are employed in the tourism industry and they consume non-traded goods and services. This consumption by guest workers converts non-traded goods into
exportables and creates guest worker generated monopoly power in trade in the home country. It is established that under certain plausible conditions a tourist boom (in the presence of guest workers) results in the immiserization of the resident population. This result arises due to an adverse movement in the terms-of-trade, specifically those associated with the guest workers consumption of non-traded goods. These results are based on a static model of trade and may not be necessarily
valid in a growth model with guest workers, tourism and labor shortages. It is not the object of the paper to be either anti-tourism or anti-guest worker, but only to show a possible source of resident immiserization that is associated with guest workers. This possibility may require correction via a suitable policy both in static and dynamic models.

Surface bands on deepwater squalid dorsal-fin spines : an alternative method for ageing centroselachus crepidater

Bands on the external surface of the second dorsal-fin spine proved to be a novel method of estimating the age and growth of Centroselachus crepidater. Bands that followed the shape of the spine base were enhanced with an alizarin red derivative. Internal bands in spine cross sections were also examined. The number of both external and internal bands increased with animal size, although most spines had more external than internal bands. External bands were more reliable and were assumed to be annuli. The rate of band formation differed after five bands had been formed, and internal bands ceased forming after 30 years. Females to 54 years old and males to 34 years old were examined. Maturity occurred over a wide age range, with estimates of 20 years for females and 9 years for males. The youngest pregnant female was 27 years old. The Francis reparameterized von Bertalanffy growth model found similar growth for males and females, and the von Bertalanffy equations were L _t = 96.12^{(1 – e(–0.072(t+6.13))}) for females and L_t = 73.22(1 – e^{(–0.141(t+2.99))}) for males.

Engineering molecular self-assembled fibrillar networks by ultrasound

The architecture of self-organized three-dimensionally interconnected nanocrystal fibrillar networks has been achieved by ultrasound from a solution consisting of separate spherulites. The ultrasound stimulated structural transformation is correlated to the striking ultrasonic effects on turning nongelled solutions or weak gels into strong gels instantly, with enhancement of the storage modulus up to 3 magnitudes and up to 4 times more gelling capability. The basic principle involved in the ultrasound-induced structural transformation is established on the basis of the nucleation-and-growth model of a fiber network formation, and the mechanism of seeding multiplication, aggregation suppressing, and fiber distribution and growth promotion is proposed. This novel technique enables us to produce self-supporting gel functional materials possessing significantly modified macroscopic properties, from materials previously thus far considered to be “useless”, without the use of chemical stimuli. Moreover, it provides a general strategy for the engineering of self-organized fiber network architectures, and we are consequently able to achieve the supramolecular functional materials with controllable macroscopic properties.

Successful university-school partnerships: an interpretive framework to inform partnership practice

This paper presents an Interpretive Framework stemming from a longitudinal and iterative multiple case study of five Australian universities examining the cogent and unique practices underpinning their established and successful school-based science teacher education programs. Results from interviews with teacher educators, school staff and pre-service teachers, show four components that guide the successful and sustainable use of university-school partnerships. These components: Guiding Pedagogical Principles; Growing University-School Partnerships; Representations of Partnership; and Growth Model provide a scaffold for initiating, growing and sustaining partnerships that maximise the benefits for all. The essential role of both university and school staff is also highlighted.