Rethinking value in the stack: smart cities and digital currencies

O Seminário Estratégico "A Reinvenção do Dinheiro e a Emergência das Moedas Criativas" reunirá 15 especialistas de diferentes áreas para discutir as transformações contemporâneas implicadas na digitalização do dinheiro e na emergência resultante de novos circuitos de monetização da produção, do consumo, da distribuição, do financiamento e da reciclagem de todos os bens e serviços, assim como da própria informação.O debate marca o lançamento da campanha MIL CLICKS de monetização de projetos de Media and Information Literacy (MIL) pela UNESCO na USP, plataforma desenhada pelo grupo de pesquisa Cidade do Conhecimento em parceria com Dentsu Aegis Network e UNESCO, integrada à Global MIL Week UNESCO 2016 na Escola de Comunicações e Artes da USP (2 a 6 de novembro de 2016).

The quality of the LMX relationship, the currency of exchange, and emotions at work

Leader-member exchange (LMX) is a theory of leadership that specifically focuses on the quality of the relationship between a manager and his/her subordinates. Previous research has shown the link between LMX quality and employee attitudes and behaviours at work. However, to the authors' knowledge, research is yet to specifically investigate the link between LMX quality and employee emotions. Also little understood are the social exchanges that lead to and maintain LMX quality ("currencies of exchange" in LMX theory). We introduce the notion of currency of exchange quality - whether the currency is present to a good enough extent or not (either in absence or excess) - and theoretically link this to employee emotions.
A field study was designed and conducted to investigate the links. The study supported the propositions that high LMX relationships with good enough currency quality resulted in more positive employee emotions; low LMX with an absence of currency quality resulted in more negative emotions; and low LMX with an excess of currency quality resulted in mixed emotions. An unexpected finding was that high LMX was also associated with excess currency quality and mixed emotions. The affective evaluations and discrete emotions experienced varied according to the currency and its quality.

Speed of adjustment within currency markets

One measure of market efficiency is the speed at which prices adjust to fundamental value with the arrival of information. This paper examines this issue by estimating speed of adjustment coefficients using three  methodologies for eight currencies for the entire year of 1996 using half hourly non-overlapping return intervals. We find that the bulk of adjustment to fundamental value for all currencies occurs within the hour but then quickly deteriorates. Within the hour adjustment is sufficiently quick to be considered efficient but the lack of full adjustment to fundamental value is not what would be predicted within an efficient market. There is no evidence for any of the currencies studied of a tendency to over react. There is also little difference in the speeds of adjustment between actively and less actively traded  currencies. There is however a definite difference in the speed at which currencies adjustment depending on whether they are free floating or managed exchange rates. Free floating rates adjust much quicker. Government intervention slows adjustment to fundamental value.

International comparisons of construction industry performance: further investigations

While there have been many attempts at comparisons of construction performance over the past 50 years, the results have generally been inconclusive and/or contradictory.

Such comparisons are of great interest to industry, governments and theorists alike but there is little agreement as to how they are best done. A variety of methodologies have been used, however, the lack of satisfactory outcomes has been due largely to one factor, the lack of a truly reliable method for comparing construction costs in different currencies

Exchange rates are recognised as being unsuitable, and while purchasing power parity (PPP) has a long history, the method still has many critics. In addition, the nature of the building industry and its products makes the establishment of reliable construction PPPs very difficult. Both the UN’s International Comparison Program (ICP) and the European Union gather data for the production of construction-specific PPP indices, but neither body publishes them, as there is too much doubt about their reliability.

New approaches are being developed and some are soon to be trialled. This paper looks at the problems, describes and discusses some new approaches, and assesses their potential.

Animal migration : linking models and data beyond taxonomic limits

An international workshop on animal migration was held at the Lorentz Center in Leiden, The Netherlands, 2–6 March 2009, bringing together leading theoreticians and empiricists from the major migratory taxa, aiming at the identification of cutting-edge questions in migration research that cross taxonomic borders.

Impacts of currency fluctuations on Japanese foreign direct investment

The Japanese currency has appreciated substantially against most other currencies over the last two decades. During the same time Japan has become one of the world's largest providers of FDI. Japan's share of total FDI outflows increased from about 6 percent during the late 70's to 21 percent in 1990 while its share of the total stock of FDI in the world increased from less than 1 percent in 1960 to more than 13 percent in 1993. Not surprisingly, Japan's role in international business in general and its FDI activities, in particular, have attracted considerable attention from researchers world wide. However, much of this attention has been directed towards the patterns and determinants of Japanese foreign direct investment, in particular to the United States. The impact of changes in the value of the Yen on Japanese FDI has been largely overlooked. Thus, this paper fills an important gap in the literature by focusing on the influence of changes of the exchange rate on Japanese foreign direct investment. A comprehensive simultaneous equa-tion model of Japanese FDI is developed on a regional level to gauge the extent to which currency fluctuations affect Japanese FDI activities. The results suggest that the exchange rate is an effective mechanism through which to influence FDI. Thus, the exchange rate should not be overlooked by the World Trade Organisation in its efforts to further liberalise investment through the Multilateral Agreement on Investment.

Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets

We address credit cycle dependent sovereign credit risk determinants. In our model, the spread determinants' magnitude is conditional on an unobservable endogenous sovereign credit cycle as represented by the underlying state of a Markov regime switching process. Our explanatory variables are motivated in the tradition of structural credit risk models and include changes in asset prices, interest rates, implied market volatility, gold price changes and foreign exchange rates. We examine daily frequency variations of U.S. dollar denominated Eurobond credit spreads of four major Latin American sovereign bond issuers (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) with liquid bond markets during March 2000 to June 2011. We find that spread determinants are statistically significant and consistent with theory, while their magnitude remarkably varies with the state of the credit cycle. Crisis states are characterized by high spread change uncertainty and high sensitivities with respect to the spread change determinants. We further document that not only changes of local currencies, but also changes of the Euro with respect to the U.S. dollar are significant spread drivers and argue that this is consistent with the sovereigns' ability to pay.

Revealing Australia’s Underground Economy

This study, using currency demand model, finds Australia’s underground economy to be around 2 to 3 per cent of gross domestic product. We extend the related literature (see, inter alia, Bajada, 1999 and Breusch, 2005) in three novel ways. First, we use Austrian levels of taxes and welfare payments as the minimum levels of taxes and welfare payments. Secondly, we employ the currency demand measurement as in Cagan (1958), i.e., cash and currencies as a proportion of total money supply. Third, we use Cagan’s original assumption regarding equalities of velocities of currencies in both the legal and illegal economies in order to estimate the underground economy.

New empirical evidence on the bid-ask spread

In this article, we model the determinants of spread for 734 firms listed on the NYSE over the period 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2008. We propose a panel data model of the determinants of spread. There are four main messages emerging from our work. We find a statistically significant effect of volume on spread inconsistent with the work of Johnson (2008). On price, we find mixed results, consistent with the literature. On the effect of price volatility on spread, our results are completely the opposite of the cross-sectional literature but sides with the relatively recent work of Chordia et al. (2001). We allow for persistence of spread as a determinant of spread and find significant evidence of spread persistence across all 16 sectors. Finally, we examine size effects and find statistically strong evidence of size effects based on the relationship between price and spread, persistence and spread, and volatility and spread.

Is exchange rate trading profitable?

We Test whether exchange rate trading is profitable in the emerging markets of Brazil, China, India, And South Africa. Using Momentum trading strategies applied to high frequency data, we discover that: (a) momentum-based trading strategies lead to statistically significant profits from the currencies of all four emerging markets; (b) The South African Rand Is generally the most profitable, followed by the Brazilian Real And the Indian Rupee; (c) Profits are persistent during the day and are trading frequency dependent; and (d) During the period of the global financial crisis currency profits were maximised.