Macroeconomic impact of foreign aid to developing countries

The thesis looks at the macroeconomic impact of foreign aid. It is specially concerned with aid's impact on the public sector of less developed countries < LDCs> . Since the overwhelming majority of aid is directed to the public sector of LDCs, one can only understand the broader macroeconomic impact of aid if one first understands its impact on this sector. To this end, the thesis econometrically estimates " fiscal response" models of aid. These models, in essence, attempt to shed light on public sector fiscal behaviour in the presence of aid inflows, being specially concerned with the way aid is used to finance various categories of expenditures. The underlaying concern is to extent to which aid is " fungible" -that is, whether it finances consumption expenditure and reductions in taxation revenue in LDCs. A number of alternative models are derived from a utility maximisation framework. These alternatives reflect different assumptions regarding the behaviour of LDC public sectors and relate to the endogeniety of aid, whether or not recurrent expenditure is financed from domestic borrowing and the determination of domestic borrowing. The original frameworks of earlier studies are extended in a number of ways, including the use of a public sector utility function which is fully consistent with expected maximising behaviour. Estimates of these models' parameters are obtained using both time-series and cross-section data, dating from the 1960s, for Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and the Philippines. Both structural and reduced-form equations are estimated. Results suggest that foreign aid foreign inflows to the official sector> is indeed fungible, albeit at different levels. Moreover, the overall impact of aid on public sector investment, consumption, domestic borrowing and taxation varies between countries. Generally speaking, aid leads to increases in investment and consumption expenditure, but reduces taxation and domestic borrowing. Comparative analysis does, however, show that these results are highly sensitive to alternative behavioural assumptions and, therefore, model specification.

A comprehensive analysis of foreign direct investment and economic growth

All three frameworks reveal a strong positive impact of FDI on economic growth. On average, economic growth appears to have been driven by FDI, human capital, domestic investment, openness to trade, and economic freedom. However, findings on the impact of growth on FDI are somewhat different across the three frameworks.

Boom and bust in Australian screen policy: 10BA, the Film Finance Corporation, and Hollywood's 'race to the bottom'.

In recent years, a narrative has emerged in the Australian popular media about the box office 'unpopularity' of Australian feature films and the 'failure' of the domestic screen industry. This article explores the recent history of Australian screen policy with particular reference to the '10BA' tax incentive of the 1980s; the Film Finance Corporation of Australia (FFC), a government screen agency established in 1988 to bring investment bank-style portfolio management to Australia's screen industry; and local production incentive policies pursed by Australian state governments in a chase for Hollywood's runaway production.

We argue the 10BA incentive catalysed an unsustainable bubble in Australian production, while its policy successor, the FFC, fundamentally failed in its stated mission of 'commercial' screen financing (over its 20-year lifespan, the FFC invested 1.345 billion Australian dollars for 274.2 million Australian dollars recouped - a cumulative return of negative 80 percent). For their part, private investors in Australian films discovered that the screen production process involved high levels of risk.

Foreign-financed production also proved highly volatile, due to the vagaries of trade exposure, currency fluctuations and tax arbitrage. The result of these macro and micro-economic factors often structural and cross-border in nature was that Australia's screen industry failed to develop the local investment infrastructure required to finance a sustainable, non-subsidised local sector.

Foreign direct investment and the stages of sector diversification

Foreign direct investment (FDI), when considered homogenous, has case-specific result on sector diversification. However, FDI when disaggregated by its type, market-seeking FDI diversifies developed countries, while efficiency-seeking FDI diversifies developing countries, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Flexible labour markets and well-established financial markets also play important role in this context.

Three essays on the intraday dynamics of the foreign exchange market

Containing three essays on the intraday dynamics of the foreign exchange market, the dissertation highlights the role of higher-moments in improving the forecasting ability of exchange rates models while contributing to the literature through the identification of new calendar anomalies in the currency market which has implications for regulators and investors.

Tax incentives for foreign direct investment part II : Design considerations

Part I of this article concluded that tax incentives for foreign direct investment (FDI) have become increasingly common over the past 10 years or so, especially among developing countries, and that there is substantial evidence to support the proposition that tax considerations now play an important role in many investment decisions. Countries seeking to attract FDI often feel compelled to offer tax inducements that are at least as attractive as those offered by their neighbours or competitors. Countries do so at a cost, however, and that cost may be substantial. Governments are thus placed in a dilemma - can they afford to cut taxes in order to attract investment, and can they afford not to? The second part of this article assumes that countries, and especially most developing countries, will continue to feel obliged to provide tax incentives. The aim of this part therefore is to examine ways in which those incentives can be made more effective and more efficient, thereby reducing their cost to the host country.

Tax incentives for foreign direct investment part I : Recent trends and countertrends

According to the conventional wisdom, tax incentives for investment - in particular for foreign direct investment (FDI) - are not recommended. That is the view held almost universally by theorists and by the international bodies that advise on tax matters.' Tax incentives are bad in theory and bad in practice. They are bad in theory principally because they cause distortions: investment decisions are made that would not have been made without the inducement of special tax concessions. They are bad in practice, being both ineffective and inefficient. They are ineffective in that tax considerations are only rarely a major determinant in FDI decisions; they are inefficient because their cost, in terms of tax revenue foregone, often far exceeds any benefits they may produce. Other criticisms are also frequently levelled against tax incentives for FDI - they are inequitable (since they benefit some investors but not others), they are difficult to administer and open to abuse, and they lack transparency. Thus, it is not surprising that ''the standard advice given by institutions like the World Bank and the lMF to developing countries is to refrain from offering tax incentives to foreign investors".2 The purpose of this article is not to question that advice or to challenge the conventional wisdom - except in one respect. Recent evidence does suggest that tax considerations are an increasingly important factor in investment decisions and that special tax incentives have become substantially more effective as instruments for attracting FDI than they were 10 or 20 years ago.3 The first part of this article, published here, examines some of that evidence, reviews some recent trends in national policies towards FDI, attempts to suggest why investment incentives have become more important and more effective, and looks at the pressures that are exerted on governments, especially in developing countries, to compete for FDI by offering special incentives. The second part of the article, to be published in the Bulletin next month, assumes that many countries will continue to offer tax incentives to investors regardless of the best advice, and considers how incentives might be designed in order to increase their effectiveness and efficiency.

Exports, Inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Regional Economic Growth in China

The relationship between exports and economic growth is strong in developing economies. Both externality effects of exports on the non-exports sector and higher marginal productivity in the exports sector in relation to the non-exports sector play an important role in promoting exports and GDP growth. The underlying theoretical model of FEDER, 1982, is used with the data on the Chinese provinces and it is shown that the economic structure, degree of openness and policy environment have a significant role in the relationship between exports and economic growth.

Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Export Performance in China

This paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the export performance of China at the provincial level. First, it presents a theoretical discussion of the impact of FDI on foreign trade, and then an empirical study of the impact of FDI on the export performance of regions in Chin. It has been found that the impact of FDI on exports differs across three macro-regions in China. The effect is stronger in the coastal region than in the inland regions. Although FDI shows a positive and significant impact on exports from the central region, its impact on the western region is found to be insignificant.

Holding the purse strings : the continuing evolution of human rights law and the potential liability of the finance industry for human rights abuses

While the responsibility of States and, in more recent times, corporations, has been thoroughly discussed in relation to human right~, a new stage of evolution may be emerging in relation to the liability of the financial backers of an enterprise that is accused of human rights abuses. This article considers the basis in international law for such emerging liability and examines some of the legal avenues used in recent domestic litigation against financial institutions. The article concludes by examining some of the relevant instruments of 'soft' international law and notes that although there is little in the way of concrete legislation or judicial precedent that would hold financial institutions responsible for the actions of those they invest in, the potential for the law to evolve in that direction is clear.

Casey: four decades in the making of Australian foreign policy

Richard Casey was involved in shaping Australian foreign policy for over four decades. Casey's attitudes, ideas, policies and actions towards the rest of the world are therefore an important part of a Liberal tradition in Australian foreign policy. To examine Casey's place in the Liberal tradition this article explores Casey's positions on the great international issues of two periods: the 1930s and the 1950s. The conclusion of the article is that three key ideas shaped Casey's foreign policy, and therefore also lie at the centre of the Liberal tradition; firstly, a strong attachment to the idea of the English speaking alliance; secondly, a realist perspective on international affairs; and, thirdly, a consistent strand of anti-communism.