Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher hypothesis

Recent empirical studies suggest that the Fisher hypothesis, stating that inflation and nominal interest rates should cointegrate with a unit parameter on inflation, does not hold, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This paper argues that these results can be explained in part by the low power inherent in univariate cointegration tests and that the use of panel data should generate more powerful tests. In doing so, we propose two new panel cointegration tests, which are shown by simulation to be more powerful than other existing tests. Applying these tests to a panel of monthly data covering the period 1980:1 to 1999:12 on 14 OECD countries, we find evidence supportive of the Fisher hypothesis.

Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect

Most empirical evidence suggests that the Fisher effect, stating that inflation and nominal interest rates should cointegrate with a unit slope on inflation, does not hold, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that the use of panel data can generate more powerful tests. For this purpose, we propose two new panel cointegration tests that can be applied under very general conditions, and that are shown by simulation to be more powerful than other existing tests. These tests are applied to a panel of quarterly data covering 20 OECD countries between 1980 and 2004. The evidence suggest that the Fisher effect cannot be rejected once the panel evidence on cointegration has been taken into account. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Convex hulls as an hypothesis language bias

Classification learning is dominated by systems which induce large numbers of small axis-orthogonal decision surfaces which biases such systems towards particular hypothesis types. However, there is reason to believe that many domains have underlying concepts which do not involve axis orthogonal surfaces. Further, the multiplicity of small decision regions mitigates against any holistic appreciation of the theories produced by these systems, notwithstanding the fact that many of the small regions are individually comprehensible. We propose the use of less strongly biased hypothesis languages which might be expected to model' concepts using a number of structures close to the number of actual structures in the domain. An instantiation of such a language, a convex hull based classifier, CHI, has been implemented to investigate modeling concepts as a small number of large geometric structures in n-dimensional space. A comparison of the number of regions induced is made against other well-known systems on a representative selection of largely or wholly continuous valued machine learning tasks. The convex hull system is shown to produce a number of induced regions about an order of magnitude less than well-known systems and very close to the number of actual concepts. This representation, as convex hulls, allows the possibility of extraction of higher level mathematical descriptions of the induced concepts, using the techniques of computational geometry.

Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence from Papua New Guinea and Fiji

Purpose - This paper aims to examine the export-led growth hypothesis for Fiji and Papua New Guinea (PNG).

Design/methodology/approach – The paper investigates the export-led growth hypothesis for Fiji and PNG who have been facing dismal economic growth performances over the last couple of decades.

Findings – Findings of the study suggest that for Fiji there is evidence of export-led growth in the long-run, while for PNG there is evidence of export-led growth in the short-run.

Originality/value – The findings of this paper have important messages for policy makers given that export sectors in both countries investigated are underdeveloped due mainly to a sustained period of political instability.

Representing Islam: female subjects in Suzanne Fisher Staples's novels

This article offers a reading of Suzanne Fisher Staples's novels Shabanu, Haveli,and Under the Persimmon Tree, drawing on postcolonial theory (in particular, Chandra Talpade Mohanty's essay "Under Western Eyes: Feminist Scholarship and Colonial Discourses" and Edward Said's Orientalism) to inform its analysis of the construction of girls and women in these texts. It argues that the novels' representations of Muslim girls are built on a naturalized contrast between liberal humanist paradigms of individualism and personal freedom, and homogenizing depictions of oppressed Muslim females, thus producing Orientalist distinctions between the West and the Orient.

The effect of using trained versus untrained adult respondents in simulated practice interviews about child abuse

Objective
A single study tested the hypothesis that simulated practice interviews for investigative interviewers of children are more effective when the role of the child respondent is played by trained actors (i.e., postgraduate psychology students) than untrained fellow participants (i.e., child protection workers).
Method
The interviewers included 50 child protection service workers. Each interviewer received instruction in the use of open-ended questions and then engaged in two simulated practice interviews. The role of the child respondent in the practice interviews was played by either a trained psychology student or an untrained fellow participant. The key outcome measure was the proportion of open-ended questions, which was assessed immediately prior to and after the practice sessions, as well as 12 weeks post-training.
Results
Interviewers who had practiced with trained actors had higher post-training performance (M = .83, SD = .12) compared to those who had practiced with untrained fellow participants (M = .73, SD = .13, p < .05), even at the 12-week follow up (M actors = .66, SD = .25; M untrained actors = .49, SD = .23, p < .05).
Conclusions
Training programs that make better use of practice opportunities (e.g., by using trained respondents) will be more effective in improving the performance of investigative interviewers.
Practice implications
A single study investigated the relative effectiveness of two simulated practice exercises for professionals who interview children about abuse. This research is relevant to professionals who design investigative interviewer training programs because it indicates that practical exercises, which are currently chosen on an ‘ad hoc’ or convenience basis, can vary markedly in their effectiveness in encouraging adherence to open questions.

A test of the Wagner's hypothesis for the Fiji Islands

In this article we examine Wagner's law for Fiji for the period 1970 to 2002. Using the Johansen (1988) test for cointegration, we find one cointegration relationship between national output and government expenditure. Using five different long run estimators, we find robust results on the impact of national income on government expenditure. The elasticity ranges from 1.36 to 1.44, implying that a 1% increase in income leads to a 1.36-1.44% increase in government expenditure. Moreover, we find that in the long run national income Granger causes government expenditure. While these results are consistent with Wagner's law, we warn policy makers that because Fiji's total debt stands at around 69% of GDP, in future the bulk of expenditure will go towards debt financing at the expense of productive sectors.

Testing the immunocompetence handicap hypothesis : a review of the evidence

The immunocompetence handicap hypothesis was formulated 12 years ago in an attempt to offer a proximate mechanism by which female choice of males could be explained by endocrine control of honest signalling. The hypothesis suggested that testosterone has a dual effect in males of controlling the development of sexual signals while causing immunosuppression. Our purpose in this review is to examine the empirical evidence to date that has attempted to test the hypothesis, and to conduct a meta-analysis on two of the assumptions of the hypothesis, that testosterone reduces immunocompetence and increases parasitism, to ascertain any statistical trend in the data. There is some evidence to suggest that testosterone is responsible for the magnitude of trait expression or development of sexual traits, but this is by no means conclusive. The results of many studies attempting to find evidence for the supposed immunosuppressive qualities of testosterone are difficult to interpret since they are observational rather than experimental. Of the experimental studies, the data obtained are ambiguous, and this is reflected in the result of the meta-analysis. Overall, the meta-analysis found a significant suppressive effect of testosterone on immunity, in support of the hypothesis, but this effect disappeared when we controlled for multiple studies on the same species. There was no effect of testosterone on direct measures of immunity, but it did increase ectoparasite abundance in several studies, in particular in reptiles. A funnel analysis indicated that the results were robust to a publication bias. Alternative substances that interact with testosterone, such as glucocorticoids, may be important. Ultimately, a greater understanding is required of the complex relationships that exist both within and between the endocrine and immune systems and their consequences for mate choice decision making.

The Samuelson hypothesis in futures markets : an analysis using intraday data

This paper considers the Samuelson hypothesis, which argues that the futures price volatility increases as the futures contract approaches its expiration. Utilizing intraday data from 20 futures markets in six futures exchanges, we find strong support for the Samuelson hypothesis in agricultural futures. However, the Samuelson hypothesis does not hold for other futures contracts. We also provide supporting evidence that the ‘negative covariance’ hypothesis is the key factor for the empirical support of the Samuelson hypothesis. In addition, our findings remain largely unaltered even after we control for seasonality and liquidity effects.

Where and when does a ring start and end? Testing the ring-species hypothesis in a species complex of Australian parrots

Speciation, despite ongoing gene flow can be studied directly in nature in ring species that comprise two reproductively isolated populations connected by a chain or ring of intergrading populations. We applied three tiers of spatio-temporal analysis (phylogeny/historical biogeography, phylogeography and landscape/population genetics) to the data from mitochondrial and nuclear genomes of eastern Australian parrots of the Crimson Rosella Platycercus elegans complex to understand the history and present genetic structure of the ring they have long been considered to form. A ring speciation hypothesis does not explain the patterns we have observed in our data (e.g. multiple genetic discontinuities, discordance in genotypic and phenotypic assignments where terminal differentiates meet). However, we cannot reject that a continuous circular distribution has been involved in the group's history or indeed that one was formed through secondary contact at the 'ring's' east and west; however, we reject a simple ring-species hypothesis as traditionally applied, with secondary contact only at its east. We discuss alternative models involving historical allopatry of populations. We suggest that population expansion shown by population genetics parameters in one of these isolates was accompanied by geographical range expansion, secondary contact and hybridization on the eastern and western sides of the ring. Pleistocene landscape and sea-level and habitat changes then established the birds' current distributions and range disjunctions. Populations now show idiosyncratic patterns of selection and drift. We suggest that selection and drift now drive evolution in different populations within what has been considered the ring.