Default probability for the Jordanian companies: A test of cash flow theory

Abstract
This paper aims to investigate the effect of cash flow and free cash flow on corporate failure in the emerging market in particular Jordan using two samples; matched sample and a cross sectional time-series (panel data) sample representative of 167 Jordanian companies in 1989-2003. LOGIT models are used to outline the relationship between firms’ financial health and the probability of default. Our results show that there is firm’s free cash flow increases corporate failure. The result also shows that the firm’s cash flow decreases corporate failure. Firms’ capital structures are fund a mental in predicting default. Capital structure is seen as the main factor affecting the probability of default as it affects a firm’s ability to access external sources of funds. Jordanian firms depend on short-term debt for both short and long term financing.

Does cash flow predict returns?

In this paper, we propose the hypothesis that cash flow and cash flow volatility predict returns. We categorize firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange into sectors, and apply tests for both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability. While we find strong evidence that cash flow volatility predicts returns for all sectors, the evidence obtained when using cash flow as a predictor is relatively weak. Estimated profits and utility gains also suggest that it is cash flow volatility that is more relevant as a source of information than cash flow.

Cash flow sensitivities and the allocation of internal cash flow

We study how firms allocate cash flow by estimating the cash-flow sensitivities of various uses of cash flow.We decompose cash flow into a transitory and a permanent component and focus on the allocation of the transitory component, which by construction contains little information about future growth opportunities. We find that more financially constrained firms allocate more transitory cash flow to cash savings and direct less toward investmentthan do less constrained firms, consistent with constrained firms accumulating liquidity to buffer against future financial constraints. We also illustrate several methodological advantages of our approach over alternative methods in previous studies

Surviving financial distress : the case of too many herbs and spices

Over 120 years ago Sir James Burns founded an organisation that is today, the international business group of Burns Philp and Company Ltd. The Group is widely known as a leading producer of yeast products and manufacturer of other bakery ingredients. Its ability to adapt to the ever-changing demands of business is widely recognised. During the late 1980’s however, after the group expanded into the herbs and spices industry its financial state deteriorated. Yet, arguably the Group had entered a market that complimented its then existing core-activities. This paper examines circumstances surrounding that venture into herbs and spices. It argues that the Group’s financial predicament, at that time, was exacerbated by the use of conventional accounting procedures. It illustrates that up-to-date market related financial details, in lieu of accounting book constructs, more aptly assist directors, managers, all stakeholders to conduct business and make informed economic decisions. This paper suggests that it is an entity’s current financial state of affairs, with regard to tangible market referents, that enables a firm’s strategic progress and facilitates proactive management; and in turn, assists in the sustainable development of business throughout the world.

Predicting future earnings growth: a test of the dividend payout ratio in the Australian market

This paper examines the use of the payout ratio as a predictor of a firm’s future earnings growth. Recent evidence rejects the hypothesis that firm which retain a large portion of their earnings have strong future earnings growth. Higher dividend payout ratios instead correspond to higher future earnings growth. Examining both listed and delisted firms on the Australian stock exchange over the period 1989 to 2008, we provide further evidence that the dividend payout ratio is positively linked to future earnings growth. The results hold over both one, three and five year periods. Furthermore, our results rejected claims that such a relationship was caused by simple mean reversion in earnings. We find no evidence to support the cash flow signaling and free cash flow hypotheses as an explanation for this relationship.

Ultimate controlling shareholders and dividend payout policy in Chinese stock market

Departing from the traditional cash flow rights-dividend policy framework, this study investigates whether the level of control rights and the types of ultimate controlling shareholders (UCSs) of listed firms in China influence their cash dividend payout. We find that the level of control rights is positively associated with both the probability to pay and the level of cash dividend payout, which indicates that UCSs use cash dividends to reduce the agency cost of free cash flow and redirect listed firms' cash balance. Furthermore, different types of UCSs influence dissimilarly on the controlled firms' cash dividends, which can be attributed to the backgrounds of these UCSs originating from China's unique partial share issuance privatization process.

Corporate political connections, agency costs and audit quality

Purpose – The effect of political connections of agency costs has attracted considerable research attention due to the increasing recognition of the fact that political connection influences corporate decisions and outcomes. This paper aims to explore the association between corporate political connections and agency cost and examine whether audit quality moderates this association. Design/methodology/approach – A data set of Bangladeshi listed non-financial companies is used. A usable sample of 968 firm-year observations was drawn for the period from 2005 to 2013. Asset utilisation ratio, the interaction of Tobin’s Q and free cash flow and expense ratio are used as alternative proxies for agency costs; membership to Big 4 audit firms or local associates of Big 4 firms is used as a proxy for audit quality. Findings – Results show that politically connected firms exhibit higher agency costs than their unconnected counterparts, and audit quality moderates the relationship between political connection and agency costs. The results of this paper suggest the importance of audit quality to mitigate agency problem in an emerging economic setting. Research limitations/implications – The findings of this paper could be of interest to regulators wishing to focus regulatory effort on significant issues influencing stock market efficiency. The findings could also inform auditors in directing audit effort through a more complete assessment of risk and determining reasonable levels of audit fees. Finally, results could inform financial statement users to direct investments to firms with lower agency costs. Originality/value – To the knowledge of the authors, this study is one of the first to explore the relationship between political connection and agency costs, and the moderating effect of audit quality of this relationship.

Material flow forming the shoulder flow zone using scroll shoulder tool during friction stir welding of thick section aluminum alloys

Scroll shoulder tools are widely used and they do not need to be tilted during friction stir welding (FSW). However, the detailed material flow, which is important for proper scroll shoulder tool design and subsequently for forming the defect-free shoulder flow zone, has not been fully explained. In the present study, features of material flow in shoulder flow zone, during FSW of thick 6061 aluminium (Al) plates using a scroll shoulder tool were investigated. It was observed that there is a simple layer-to-layer banded structure which appears in the bottom portion of shoulder flow zone, but disappears in the top portion of this weld zone. When the scroll shoulder tool is plunged into the workpiece to a determined depth, the workpiece material is extruded by the tool pin, and pushed up into the scroll groove beneath the shoulder forming the pick-up material. During the forward movement of the tool, the central portion of pick-up material was driven downward by the root portion of pin and then it detaches from the tip portion of pin in a layer-to-layer manner to form the weld.

The effect of financial constraints, investment policy, product market competition and corporate governance on the value of cash holdings

This study empirically investigates the value shareholders place on excess cash holdings and how shareholders’ valuation of cash holdings is associated with financial constraints, firm growth, cash-flow uncertainty and product market competition for Australian firms from 1990 to 2007. Our results indicate that the marginal value of cash holdings to shareholders declines with larger cash holdings and higher leverage. However, firms that are more financially constrained, that have higher growth rates and that face greater uncertainty exhibit a higher marginal value of cash holdings. These findings are consistent with the explanation that excess cash holdings are not necessarily detrimental to firm value. Firms with costly external financing and that also save more cash for current operating and future investing needs find that the market values these cash hoarding policies favourably. Finally, there is limited evidence of an association between various corporate governance measures and the value of cash holdings for a shorter sample period.

Exempt treatment of financial intermediation services under a value-added tax: an assessment of alternatives

Most countries with a value-added tax (VAT) exempt financial intermediation services from the tax. While exemption is generally perceived to be undesirable, it is also widely regarded as unavoidable because of technical difficulties in applying VAT to these services. This article reviews the standard rationale for exempt treatment and then considers the relative merits of two recent challenges raised in the tax literature. The first challenge involves the application of cash flow taxation to financial intermediation services in a manner that is consistent with an invoice/credit VAT (which is the dominant form). The second challenge proposes a comprehensive system of zero-rating of financial intermediation services, which is supported by a characterization of the household consumption of such services as non-taxable. The author argues that each of these alternatives to an exemption system suffers from both theoretical and practical implementation difficulties that make maintenance of exempt treatment the preferred approach, at least in the short term. There is, however, a simpler alternative to these fundamental reform options, involving modification of just one aspect of an exemption system to relieve some of its more problematic aspects. Many of the interpretative problems and associated inefficiencies that plague an exemption system arise from the need to distinguish between taxable and exempt financial services. The author argues that these difficulties can be eliminated, to a large extent, by basing the distinction on the form of prices. In support of this approach, he points out that it is consistent with the underlying reasons for the application of exempt treatment. The author considers a number of other possible modifications, but these are either rejected outright or viewed with a healthy skepticism. For example, the author is critical of the apparent rationale for the application of cash flow taxation to property and casualty insurers. He also rejects proposals that accept some looseness in the formulaic allocation by financial intermediaries of the costs of business inputs between exempt and taxable services for input credit purposes. In his view, an explicit reliance on pricing structures to draw the boundary between exempt and taxable services is preferable to the provision of relief for blocked input tax credits of financial intermediaries. Finally, the author is skeptical of the case for a policy response intended to address the tax bias under an exemption system for financial intermediaries to insource supplies.

Dividend forecasts and dividend payments of initial public offerings-when zero means zero and no comment most likely also means zero

Managers often try to forecast dividends because as Brown et al. (2002)  suggest, dividends have cash flow implications for investors and are important signalling devices. This study analyses the dividend forecasts in the prospectuses of initial public offerings (IPOs) in Australia over the period 1994 to 1999. While many companies forecast dividends, many make no dividend forecast at all and some forecast no (or zero) dividends for the forthcoming year. This paper seeks to determine if no forecast at all should present a different signal to investors than a zero dividend forecast. It is found that those that do not forecast a dividend, by and large, do not pay a dividend. It is also found that those that forecast a zero dividend, true to their forecast, pay no dividend.

A bioeconomic evaluation of a commercial scale recirculating finfish growout system - an Australian perspective

This study, based on 3 years of commercial data, presents the results of an economic analysis of a 20-tonne per annum (TPA) commercial recirculating aquaculture system (RAS) facility located in Warrnambool, Victoria, Australia. Based on the assumptions of the analysis, results highlight the non-viability of the facility, with a 10-year projected negative cumulative cash flow of − $648,038, and negative net present value (NPV) of − $707,546. Economies of scale were assessed by the development of economic models for hypothetical 50-TPA and 100-TPA facilities, based on the actual figures obtained from the 20-TPA case study. These analyses highlighted marginal viability for the 50-TPA facility (with a ten-year projected cumulative cash flow of $1,030,300; negative NPV of − $167,651 and internal rate of return (IRR) of 11.75%), and an economically viable 100-TPA facility (with a ten-year projected cumulative cash flow of $3,176,750; NPV of $522,200 and IRR of 21.03%). Sensitivity analysis highlighted that the greatest gains to be realised in improving profitability were those associated with increasing the productive capacity of the facility, increasing the sale price of the product, and decreasing the capital costs of RAS facilities. Contradictions between the results from the present study to similar studies clearly highlight a need for further economic analyses of commercial RAS facilities, using commercial data sets and standard economic analysis procedures.

Analysis of IPO dividend forecasts for Australian LPTs

While dividend forecasts in the prospectuses of initial public offerings (IPOs) are common, Brown et al. (2000) have found them to be optimistically biased. This study investigates the dividend/distribution forecasts in the prospectuses of Australian LPT IPOs during the period 1994 to 2004 and finds on average that they are not optimistically biased. Because dividends have important cash flow implications for investors, this study also examines factors that might influence the magnitude of the errors between the forecast and the actual distributions. It finds that LPT IPOs that offer stapled securities have overestimated their distribution paying ability.