Academics,think tanks and journalists : the trouble with expert opinion, empirical evidence and bilingual education

This book reports the findings of the Australian News media and Indigenous policymaking 1988-2008 ARC Discovery Project

A simplified stroke rehabilitation assessment of movement instrument

Background and Purpose. An efficient, reliable, and valid instrument for assessing motor function in patients with stroke is needed by both clinicians and researchers. To improve administration efficiency, we applied the multidimensional Rasch model to the 30-item, 3-subscale Stroke Rehabilitation Assessment of Movement (STREAM) instrument to produce a concise, reliable, and valid instrument (simplified STREAM [S-STREAM]) for measuring motor function in patients with stroke. Subjects and Methods. The STREAM (consisting of 3 subscales: upper-limb movements, lower-limb movements, and mobility) was administered to 351 subjects with first stroke occurrence and a median time after stroke of 19.5 months. The unidimensionality of each subscale of the STREAM first was verified with unidimensional Rasch analysis. Each subscale of the STREAM then was simplified by deleting redundant items on the basis of expert opinion and the results of the Rasch analysis. The Rasch reliability of the S-STREAM and the concurrent validity of the S-STREAM with the STREAM were examined with multidimensional Rasch analysis and the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), respectively. Results. After deleting the items that did not fit the Rasch model, we found that the 8-item upper-limb movement subscale, the 9-item lower-limb movement subscale, and the 10-item mobility subscale assessed single, unidimensional upper-limb movements, lower-limb movements, and mobility, respectively. We selected 5 items from each subscale to construct the S-STREAM and found that the reliability of each subscale of the resulting simplified instrument was high (Rasch reliability coefficients of [greater than or equal to] .91). The agreement between the subscale scores (Rasch estimates) of the S-STREAM and those of the STREAM was excellent (ICC of [greater than or equal to] .99, with a lower limit for the 95% confidence interval of [greater than or equal to] .985), indicating good concurrent validity of the S-STREAM with the STREAM. Discussion and Conclusion. The S-STREAM demonstrates high Rasch reliability, unidimensionality, and concurrent validity with the STREAM in patients with stroke. Furthermore, the S-STREAM is efficient to administer, as it consists of only half the number of items in the original STREAM. Additional studies to examine other psychometric properties (eg, predictive validity and responsiveness) of the S-STREAM or its psychometric properties in various recovery stages after stroke are needed to further establish its utility in both clinical and research settings.

Practical application of the Delphi technique in a bicultural mental health nursing study in New Zealand

Background. Numerous studies have employed the Delphi technique to seek expert opinion about aspects of clinical practice. When researching literature on the Delphi technique, however, we discovered discrepancies in its application, and a lack of detail when reporting design, administration, and analysis methods. Such lack of specificity hinders the replicability and assessment of the clinical and cultural validity and reliability of Delphi studies.

Aim. The aim of this paper is to detail the practical application of the Delphi technique as a culturally and clinically valid means of accessing expert opinion on the importance of clinical criteria.

Methods. Reference is made to a bicultural New Zealand mental health nursing clinical indicator study that employed a three-round reactive Delphi survey. Equal proportions of Maori and non-Maori nurses (n = 20) and consumers (n = 10) rated the importance of 91 clinical indicator statements for the achievement of professional practice standards. Additional statements (n = 21) suggested by Delphi participants in round 1 were included in subsequent rounds. In round 2, participants explained the rating they applied to statements that had not reached consensus in round 1, and summarized responses were provided to participants in round 3. Consensus was considered to have been achieved if 85% of round 3 ratings lay within a 2-point bracket on the 5-point Likert-scale overall, or in one of the Maori nurse, non-Maori nurse, or consumer groups. A mean rating of 4·5 after round 3 was set as the importance threshold.

Findings. Consensus occurred overall on 75 statements, and within groups on another 24. Most statements (n = 86) reached the importance benchmark.

Conclusions. When rigorous methods of participant selection, group composition, participant feedback, and determination of consensus and importance are employed, the Delphi technique is a reliable, cost-effective means of obtaining and prioritizing experts judgements.

Funding special education provision by means of discriminant function analysis

This thesis is concerned with the development of a funding mechanism, the Student Resource Index, which has been designed to resolve a number of difficulties which emerged following the introduction of integration or inclusion as an alternative means of providing educational support to students with disabilities in the Australian State of Victoria. Prior to 1984, the year in which the major integration or inclusion initiatives were introduced, the great majority of students with disabilities were educated in segregated special schools, however, by 1992 the integration initiatives had been successful in including within regular classes approximately half of the students in receipt of additional educational assistance on the basis of disability. The success of the integration program brought with it a number of administrative and financial problems which were the subject of three government enquiries. Central to these difficulties was the development of a dual system of special education provision. On one hand, additional resources were provided for the students attending segregated special schools by means of weighted student ratios, with one teacher being provided for each six students attending a special school. On the other hand, the requirements of individual students integrated into regular schools were assessed by school-based committees on the basis of their perceived extra educational needs. The major criticism of this dual system of special education funding was that it created inequities in the distribution of resources both between the systems and also within the systems. For example, three students with equivalent needs, one of whom attended a special school and two of whom attended different regular schools could each be funded at substantially differing levels. The solution to these inequities of funding was seen to be in the development of a needs based funding device which encompassed all students in receipt of additional disability related educational support. The Student Resource Index developed in this thesis is a set of behavioural descriptors designed to assess degree of additional educational need across a number of disability domains. These domains include hearing, vision, communication, health, co-ordination (manual and mobility), intellectual capacity and behaviour. The completed Student Resource Index provides a profile of the students’ needs across all of these domains and as such addresses the multiple nature of many disabling conditions. The Student Resource Index was validated in terms of its capacity to predict the ‘known’ membership or the type of special school which some 1200 students in the sample currently attended. The decision to use the existing special school populations as the criterion against which the Student Resource Index was validated was based on the premise that the differing resource levels of these schools had been historically determined by expert opinion, industrial negotiation and reference to other special education systems as the most reliable estimate of the enrolled students’ needs. When discriminant function analysis was applied to some 178 students attending one school for students with mild intellectual disability and one facility for students with moderate to severe intellectual disability the Student Resource Index was successful in predicting the student's known school in 92 percent of cases. An analysis of those students (8 percent) which the Student Resource Index had failed to predict their known school enrolment revealed that 13 students had, for a variety of reasons, been inappropriately placed in these settings. When these students were removed from the sample the predictive accuracy of the Student Resource Index was raised to 96 percent of the sample. By comparison the domains of the Vineland Adaptive Behaviour Scale accurately predicted known enrolments of 76 percent of the sample. By way of replication discriminant function analysis was then applied to the Student Resource Index profiles of 518 students attending Day Special Schools (Mild Intellectual Disability) and 287 students attending Special Developmental Schools (Moderate to Severe Intellectual Disability). In this case, the Student Resource Index profiles were successful in predicting the known enrolments of 85 percent of students. When a third group was added, 147 students attending Day Special Schools for students with physical disabilities, the Student Resource Index predicted known enrolments in 80 percent of cases. The addition of a fourth group of 116 students attending Day Special Schools (Hearing Impaired) to the discriminant analysis led to a small reduction in predictive accuracy from 80 percent to 78 percent of the sample. A final analysis which included students attending a School for the Deaf-Blind, a Hospital School and a Social and Behavioural Unit was successful in predicting known enrolments in 71 percent of the 1114 students in the sample. For reasons which are expanded upon within the thesis it was concluded that the Student Resource Index when used in conjunction with discriminant function analysis was capable of isolating four distinct groups on the basis of their additional educational needs. If the historically determined and varied funding levels provided to these groups, inherent in the cash equivalent of the staffing ratios of Day Special Schools (Mild Intellectual Disability), Special Development Schools (Moderate to Severe Intellectual Disability), Day Special Schools (Physical Disability) and Day Special Schools (Hearing Impairment) are accepted as reasonable reflections of these students’ needs these funding levels can be translated into funding bands. These funding bands can then be applied to students in segregated or inclusive placements. The thesis demonstrates that a new applicant for funding can be introduced into the existing data base and by the use of discriminant function analysis be allocated to one of the four groups. The analysis is in effect saying that this new student’s profile of educational needs has more in common with Group A than with the members of Groups B, C, or D. The student would then be funded at Group A level. It is immaterial from a funding point of view whether the student decides to attend a segregated or inclusive setting. The thesis then examines the impact of the introduction of Student Resource Index based funding upon the current funding of the special schools in one of the major metropolitan regions. Overall, such an initiative would lead to a reduction of 1.54 percent of the total funding accruing to the region’s special schools.

Psychological and interpersonal dimensions of sexual function and dysfunction

Introduction. There are limited outcome data on the etiology and efficacy of psychological interventions for male and female sexual dysfunction as well as the role of innovative combined treatment paradigms.
Aim. This study aimed to highlight the salient psychological and interpersonal issues contributing to sexual health and dysfunction, to offer an etiological model for understanding the evolution and maintenance of sexual symptoms, and to offer recommendations for clinical management and research.
Methods. This study reviewed the current literature on the psychological and interpersonal issues contributing to male and female sexual dysfunction.
Main Outcome Measure. This study provides expert opinion based on a comprehensive review of the medical and psychological literature, widespread internal committee discussion, public presentation, and debate.
Results. Medical and psychological therapies for sexual dysfunctions should address the intricate biopsychosocial influences of the patient, the partner, and the couple. The biopsychosocial model provides an integrated paradigm for understanding and treating sexual dysfunction.
Conclusions. There is need for collaboration between healthcare practitioners from different disciplines in the evaluation, treatment, and education issues surrounding sexual dysfunction. In many cases, neither psychotherapy alone nor medical intervention alone is sufficient for the lasting resolution of sexual problems. The assessment of male, female, and couples’ sexual dysfunction should ideally include inquiry about predisposing, precipitating, maintaining, and contextual factors. Research is needed to identify efficacious combined and/or integrated treatments for sexual dysfunction.

Bevacizumab for the treatment of high-grade glioma

Introduction: Gliomas are highly vascular and rich in vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) that promotes angiogenesis. Bevacizumab is a monoclonal antibody against VEGF inhibiting angiogenesis by preventing receptor activation. Phase II clinical trials using bevacizumab in both newly diagnosed and recurrent high-grade glioma (HGG) showed promising results.

Areas covered: This is a review of clinical trials investigating bevacizumab in newly diagnosed and recurrent HGGs with a focus on outcome results. A future perspective about the expected role of bevacizumab is given. Bevacizumab efficacy, safety and tolerability, the combination of radiation and bevacizumab as well as the use of bevacizumab to treat pseudoprogression are discussed. Further criteria of response evaluation needed to be adjusted in the age of anti-angiogenic therapy and this will be discussed.

Expert opinion: Bevacizumab has been shown to be safe and tolerable in HGG. In the recurrent disease setting, bevacizumab alone might be sufficient for a clinical benefit and is currently approved as a single agent for this indication. While clinical trials demonstrate a prolonged progression-free survival in bevacizumab-treated HGG, a benefit on OS has not been demonstrated yet. Bevacizumab has also been introduced into other settings in neuro-oncology including concurrent administration with re-irradiation for recurrent HGG.

Predicting landscape-genetic consequences of habitat loss, fragmentation and mobility for multiple species of woodland birds

Inference concerning the impact of habitat fragmentation on dispersal and gene flow is a key theme in landscape genetics. Recently, the ability of established approaches to identify reliably the differential effects of landscape structure (e.g. land-cover composition, remnant vegetation configuration and extent) on the mobility of organisms has been questioned. More explicit methods of predicting and testing for such effects must move beyond post hoc explanations for single landscapes and species. Here, we document a process for making a priori predictions, using existing spatial and ecological data and expert opinion, of the effects of landscape structure on genetic structure of multiple species across replicated landscape blocks. We compare the results of two common methods for estimating the influence of landscape structure on effective distance: least-cost path analysis and isolation-by-resistance. We present a series of alternative models of genetic connectivity in the study area, represented by different landscape resistance surfaces for calculating effective distance, and identify appropriate null models. The process is applied to ten species of sympatric woodland-dependant birds. For each species, we rank a priori the expectation of fit of genetic response to the models according to the expected response of birds to loss of structural connectivity and landscape-scale tree-cover. These rankings (our hypotheses) are presented for testing with empirical genetic data in a subsequent contribution. We propose that this replicated landscape, multi-species approach offers a robust method for identifying the likely effects of landscape fragmentation on dispersal.

Nanotechnology based platforms for survivin targeted drug discovery

Introduction: Development of an effective, safe and targeted drug delivery system to fight cancer and other diseases is a prime focus in the area of drug discovery. The emerging field of nanotechnology has revolutionised the way cancer therapy and diagnosis is achieved primarily due to the recent advances in material engineering and drug availability. Further, the recognition of the crucial role played by anti-apoptotic proteins such as survivin, has initiated the development of therapeutics that can target this protein as an attempt to develop alternative cancer therapies. However, a key challenge faced in drug development is the efficient delivery of survivin-targeted molecules to specific areas in the body.Areas covered: This review primarily focuses on the different strategies employing nanotechnology for targeting survivin expressed in human cancers. Different nanomaterials incorporating nucleic molecules or drugs targeted at survivin are discussed and the results obtained from studies are highlighted.Expert opinion: There are extensive studies reporting different treatment regimens for cancer, however, they still result in systemic toxicity, reduced bioavailability and ineffective delivery. Novel approaches involve the use of biocompatible nanomaterials together with gene or drug molecules to target proteins such as survivin, which is overexpressed in cancerous cells. These nanoformulations allow the benefits of protecting easily degradable molecules, allow controlled release, and enhance targeted delivery and effectiveness. Hence, nanotherapy utilizing survivin targeting can be considered to play a key role in the development of personalized nanomedicine for cancer.

Diagnosis of myalgic encephalomyelitis : where are we now?

Introduction: The World Health Organization has classified myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME) as a neurological disease since 1969 considering chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) as a synonym used interchangeably for ME since 1969. ME and CFS are considered to be neuro-immune disorders, characterized by specific symptom profiles and a neuro-immune pathophysiology. However, there is controversy as to which criteria should be used to classify patients with “chronic fatigue syndrome.”

Areas covered: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) criteria consider chronic fatigue (CF) to be distinctive for CFS, whereas the International Consensus Criteria (ICC) stresses the presence of post-exertion malaise (PEM) as the hallmark feature of ME. These case definitions have not been subjected to rigorous external validation methods, for example, pattern recognition analyses, instead being based on clinical insights and consensus.

Expert opinion: Pattern recognition methods showed the existence of three qualitatively different categories: (a) CF, where CF evident, but not satisfying full CDC syndrome criteria. (b) CFS, satisfying CDC criteria but without PEM. (c) ME, where PEM is evident in CFS. Future research on this “chronic fatigue spectrum” should, therefore, use the abovementioned validated categories and novel tailored algorithms to classify patients into ME, CFS, or CF.

Neuroendocrine neoplasms of the GI tract : the role of cytotoxic chemotherapy

Neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) comprise a heterogeneous group of neoplasms derived from peptide- and amine-secreting cells of the neuroendocrine system. NENs commonly arise in the GI tract but can arise in most organs of the body. NENs in different organs share many common pathologic features. Although the incidence of NENs is not high, the prevalence is not low because many patients may live relatively long periods without major symptoms from the disease. While many of these tumors lead an indolent clinical course, they constitute a therapeutic challenge when they progress, metastasize and become symptomatic. Treatment requires a multidisciplinary approach including cytotoxic chemotherapy. Almost all clinical trials investigating cytotoxic chemotherapy in NENs are small single-arm studies and guidelines are derived from expert opinion and from extrapolating results from small cell lung cancer studies. This article briefly reviews NENs before focusing on reviewing data on the role of cytotoxic chemotherapy studies in NENs.

Cost effectiveness of surveillance for isocyanate asthma : finding an occupational health policy framework

Wild et al present an original cost effectiveness analysis for medical surveillance for isocyanate asthma in this issue of OEM.1 The general case for surveillance for isocyanate asthma is a compelling one. Most occupational physicians, practitioners, and researchers might rightly expect that if a cost effectiveness (CE) case cannot be made for this agent, it would be hard to make a case for most others. The causal link between isocyanate exposure and asthma is well established, and more is known about the pathophysiology, natural history, long term consequences, and benefits of medical surveillance in this instance than for most other occupational exposures.A mathematical simulation model was developed based on a carefully specified set of clinical parameters, drawing from empirical studies where possible (for example, in estimating sensitisation rates ranging from 0.7% to 5.3% per year), and well qualified expert opinion otherwise (for example, in estimating the chance of removal from exposure if a patient is diagnosed versus undiagnosed). Their “state transition” model compared passive case finding to surveillance (the heart of the CE analysis question as proposed) for a theoretical population of 100 000 otherwise healthy and exposed workers, predicting their progression over 10 years across three mutually exclusive “states”: healthy and exposed; symptomatic; and disabled. This alone is an impressive and valuable piece of research, integrating a substantial body of empirical research to show that surveillance is estimated to result in 700 fewer cases of disability over 10 years compared to passive case finding. While such a modelling exercise necessarily requires numerous assumptions and simplifications, each was well articulated and defensible.

Invertebrate diversity of the unexplored marine western margin of Australia: taxonomy and implications for global biodiversity

However derived, predictions of global marine species diversity rely on existing real data. All methods, whether based on past rates of species descriptions, on expert opinion, on the fraction of undescribed species in samples collected, or on ratios between taxa in the taxonomic hierarchy, suffer the same limitation. Here we show that infaunal macrofauna (crustaceans and polychaetes) of the lower bathyal depth range are underrepresented among available data and documented results from Australia. The crustacean and polychaete fauna (only partially identified) of the bathyal continental margin of Western Australia comprised 805 species, representing a largely novel and endemic fauna. Overall, 94.6% of crustacean species were undescribed, while 72% of polychaete species were new to the Australian fauna, including all tanaidaceans, amphipods, and cumaceans, as well as most isopods. Most species were rare, and the species accumulation rate showed no sign of reaching an asymptote with increasing area sampled. Similar data are likely for the largely unexplored bathyal regions. This leads us to conclude that the numbers upon which extrapolations to larger areas are based are too low to provide confidence. The Southern Australian and Indo-West Pacific deep-sea regions contribute significantly to global species diversity. These regions and bathyal and abyssal habitats generally are extensive, but are so-far poorly sampled. They appear to be dominated by taxonomically poorly worked and species-rich taxa with limited distributions. The combination of high species richness among infaunal taxa-compared to better known taxa with larger individuals, higher endemism than presently acknowledged because of the presence of cryptic species, the low proportion of described species in these taxa, and the vast extent of unexplored bathyal and abyssal environments-will lead to further accumulation of new species as more and more deep sea regions are explored. It remains to be tested whether ratios of 10 or more undescribed to described species, found in this study for the dominant taxa and for the deep Southern Ocean and the Indo-West Pacific, are replicable in other areas. Our data and similar figures from other remote regions, and the lack of faunal overlap, suggest that Appeltans et al.'s (Current Biology 22:1-14, 2012) estimate that between one-third and two-thirds of the world's marine fauna is undescribed is low, and that Mora et al.'s (PLoS Biol 9(8):e1001127. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1001127, 2011) of 91% is more probable. We conclude that estimates of global species, however made, are based on limited data. © 2014 Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

A multi-criteria decision approach to decommissioning of offshore oil and gas infrastructure

Thousands of the world's offshore oil and gas structures are approaching obsolescence and will require decommissioning within the next decade. Many nations have blanket regulations requiring obsolete structures to be removed, yet this option is unlikely to yield optimal environmental, societal and economic outcomes in all situations. We propose that nations adopt a flexible approach that allows decommissioning options to be selected from the full range of alternatives (including 'rigs-to-reefs' options) on a case-by-case basis. We outline a method of multi-criteria decision analysis (Multi-criteria Approval, MA) for evaluating and comparing alternative decommissioning options across key selection criteria, including environmental, financial, socioeconomic, and health and safety considerations. The MA approach structures the decision problem, forces explicit consideration of trade-offs and directly involves stakeholder groups in the decision process. We identify major decommissioning options and provide a generic list of selection criteria for inclusion in the MA decision process. To deal with knowledge gaps concerning environmental impacts of decommissioning, we suggest that expert opinion feed into the MA approach until sufficient data become available. We conducted a limited trial of the MA decision approach to demonstrate its application to a complex and controversial decommissioning scenario; Platform Grace in southern California. The approach indicated, for this example, that the option 'leave in place intact' would likely provide best environmental outcomes in the event of future decommissioning. In summary, the MA approach will allow the environmental, social, and economic impacts of decommissioning decisions to be assessed simultaneously in a transparent manner. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Homocysteine as a potential biomarker in bipolar disorders: a critical review and suggestions for improved studies

Introduction: Homocysteine levels have been associated with major depression, but associations with bipolar disorder remain less clear. Some data suggest homocysteine levels have potential as a biomarker of treatment response; however the literature is mixed.

Areas covered: Oxidized forms of homocysteine can be potentially neurotoxic leading to glutamate toxicity, apoptotic transformation and neurodegenerative processes. High homocysteine may be a risk biomarker for bipolar disorders, but the empirical base remains too weak for firm conclusions. This review discusses the current literature for homocysteine levels as a biomarker.

Expert opinion: It is premature to foreclose the utility of homocysteine levels as a biomarker for bipolar disorder due the methodological inadequacies in the existing literature. These methodological design issues include lack of control for the confounding variables of concurrent medication, phase of bipolar disorder, gender, age, nutritional status, thyroid, liver and renal function, smoking or lean body mass. Well-powered association studies with confounder control could help shed more light on the important clinical question of homocysteine's utility as a biomarker in bipolar disorder. Future experiments are needed to examine the outcome of interventions modulating homocysteine for treating bipolar disorder. Only prospective randomized control trials will provide definitive evidence of the utility of homocysteine as a biomarker or therapeutic target.