Generality is predictive of prediction accuracy

During knowledge acquisition multiple alternative potential rules all appear equally credible. This paper addresses the dearth of formal analysis about how to select between such alternatives. It presents two hypotheses about the expected impact of selecting between classification rules of differing levels of generality in the absence of other evidence about their likely relative performance on unseen data. It is argued that the accuracy on unseen data of the more general rule will tend to be closer to that of a default rule for the class than will that of the more specific rule. It is also argued that in comparison to the more general rule, the accuracy of the more specific rule on unseen cases will tend to be closer to the accuracy obtained on training data. Experimental evidence is provided in support of these hypotheses. We argue that these hypotheses can be of use in selecting between rules in order to achieve specific knowledge acquisition objectives.

Ageing, chronic disease and injury: a study in western Victoria (Australia)

Background : An increasing burden of chronic disease and associated health service delivery is expected due to the ageing Australian population. Injuries also affect health and wellbeing and have a long-term impact on health service utilisation. There is a lack of comprehensive data on disease and injury in rural and regional areas of Australia. The aim of the Ageing, Chronic Disease and Injury study is to compile data from various sources to better describe the patterns of chronic disease and injury across western Victoria.

Design : Ecological study.

Methods : Information on demographics, socioeconomic indicators and lifestyle factors are obtained from health surveys and government departments. Data concerning chronic diseases and injuries will be sourced from various registers, health and emergency services, local community health centres and administrative databases and compiled to generate profiles for the study region and for sub-populations within the region.

Expected impact for public health: This information is vital to establish current and projected population needs to inform policy and improve targeted health services delivery, care transition needs and infrastructure development. This study provides a model that can be replicated in other geographical settings.

Blaming the target of sexual harrassment: impact of gender role, sexist attitudes and work role.

This study was conducted to examine factors associated with blaming the target of sexual harassment. Participants' experiences of sexual harassment, sexist attitudes, gender, gender role identity, age, worker or student status, and belief in a just world were included as independent variables. Level of blame was evaluated using a series of 12 vignettes that manipulated the gender of the target and harasser as well as the seriousness of the harassing behavior. The sample comprised 30 female and 32 male workers from two workplaces, whose ages ranged from 18 to 65 (M = 35) years, and 102 female and 18 male university students whose ages ranged from 17 to 40 (M = 21) years. Approximately 70% of the sample were from Anglo Australian background, and 30% from European, Middle Eastern or Asian background. Females experienced more sexual harassment than males did, although the male rate was higher than expected. Although the majority of subjects attributed little blame to the target, males blamed the target of sexual harassment more than females did, and workers blamed the target of harassment more than university students did. Worker status, sexist attitudes, and gender significantly predicted blame for the total sample. Gender-typing increased the blame of the target by males but not by females. Attribution of blame was significantly influenced by worker versus student status, which supports the social psychological perspective that gender-related behavior is context dependent. The findings from this study suggest that organisational culture and environment influence respondents' attitudes to sexually harassing behavior.

The impact of court delays on the prosecutor and the defendant: an economic analysis

One important aspect of the economic theory of criminal court delay is to understand how the prosecutor and the defendant make their decisions, and how these respond to changes in trial delay. If both parties jointly maximise expected utility, trial delay may increase or decrease the number of trials, depending upon the decision makers' attitudes towards risk. The main policy implication is that providing the criminal courts with more resources in the form of additional judges and court capacity may lengthen the trial queue rather than shorten it. This is a counterintuitive result contrary to popular belief.

Distribution of disease caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Wilsons Promontory National Park and potential for further impact

The extent of disease caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi was determined within vegetation communities of Wilsons Promontory National Park. Aerial survey of visible symptoms by helicopter and systematic survey along all roads and tracks followed by isolation of the pathogen from soil found that in total 551 ha of moist foothill forest, heath and heathy woodland broad vegetation types were affected by the disease. P. cinnamomi was isolated from 93% of sites that, based on the presence of visible symptoms, were expected to yield the pathogen. The species-rich heathy woodland was most affected with 6.5% of the total area of this type showing symptoms of disease. The size of infestation ranged from 229 ha on the slopes of the Vereker Range in the north to less than 1 ha along the Sealers Cove Walking Track in the south. The potential for disease to spread into uninfested vegetation was estimated for all sites from which P. cinnamomi was isolated. Eight of 18 sites where evidence of disease was found were estimated to have a high potential for further disease spread. This study indicates that even though the disease may be waning in some areas of the Park, the pathogen is active and easily isolated from others and provides a continuing threat to susceptible vegetation communities.

The impact of stigma on couples managing a sexually transmitted infection

Recent research has indicated that the stigma surrounding sexually transmitted infections (STIs) creates a psychological and emotional burden for individuals with these conditions. It would be expected that the stigma of having a STI would also alter the dynamics of an intimate relationship. This paper reviews the literature on the impact of STIs on intimate relationships, and considers the relevance of this research to both clinicians and researchers. In particular, the types of relationships in which the presence of a STI may have a varying degree of impact are examined. Since disclosure of a STI would also be expected to impact on a relationship, an overview of the factors involved in the disclosure of a STI to a partner is also considered. Finally, the implications of this research for both clinicians and researchers are discussed.

The impact of change on employees : what do annual reports say?

As part of the accountability process public companies are required to report annually to stakeholders. Given the substantial investment in human capital, the disclosure of employment related policies, and the impact of changing policies and practices on employees, could be expected. Over the last few decades the UK banking sector has experienced major change. Increased competition, technology, regulation and deregulation have all contributed to changing practices, which have had a significant impact on employees. This paper examines changes in the banking sector, and the employee information reported in the annual reports of a large UK bank, over the period 1980 to 1995. The purpose of this paper is to examine how the changes, and the effects of the changes on employees, were reported in the annual reports.

Evaluating the impact of financial literacy programs on the retirement savings of superannuation fund members

Currently, in Australia, the age pension, paid for out of Commonwealth government taxes, forms the basis of Australia’s retirement income system, however, given the reality of an ageing population has compelled the government to undertake a number of measures to shift the responsibility for saving to the individual, forcing them to accept an increasing level of responsibility for their financial decision-making. In the light of the changing retirement environment, it would be expected that Australians’ would ensure that they became financially literate, however, despite the amount of information and advice available in the market place, this is not the case, and they do not appear to be appropriately prepared for their retirement. Recognising the importance of financial literacy, an increasing number of government agencies, employers, superannuation funds and schools are implementing financial literacy programs in Australia. This article provides an overview of the impact that attending a financial education seminar has on the retirement decisions and settings of participants. Evidence is provided from this research that in the short term, providing financial education programs make a difference to an individual’s intended retirement settings. However, the impact of these education programs in changing investment behaviour is less conclusive.

Impact of tobacco tax reforms on tobacco prices and tobacco use in Australia

OBJECTIVE: To document the impact of changes to tobacco taxes on the range and price of tobacco sold during the period when the National Tobacco Campaign (NTC) was run.

DATA SOURCES: Information about brand availability, pack size, and price was extracted from Australian Retail Tobacconist. A retail observational survey was undertaken to monitor actual retail prices. Data on cigarette prices, brands, packet configurations, and outlets from which they were purchased were obtained from the benchmark and three follow up population telephone surveys conducted to evaluate the NTC.

METHOD: Data from the three sources were compared to see the extent to which the impact of tax changes had been offset by greater retail discounting and a more concerted effort by consumers to purchase cheaper products.

RESULTS: Smokers were unable to cushion themselves from the sharp price increases that occurred during the third phase of the NTC. Both average recommended retail prices of manufactured cigarettes and average actual cigarette prices paid by smokers increased by 25% in real prices.

CONCLUSION: The fall in smoking prevalence over the first two phases of the NTC was substantially greater than would be expected due to tax changes alone. The fall in smoking consumption over the first two phases was slightly less than would be expected and in the third considerably higher than would be expected.

Discrepancy between expected and actual child support payments : predicting the health and health-related quality of life of children living in low-income, single-parent families

Objective Although the amount and frequency of child support payments received by single parents are often erratic and fluctuate, no study to date has quantitatively explored how the discrepancy between expected and actual payments relates to child health. This study aims to examine whether the discrepancy between expected and actual child support payments predicts a range of child health outcomes, including global health, health-related quality of life, involvement in activities and parental psychological distress.

Methods This study used results from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, which included a sample of parents of children aged 4–5 years (n = 4983). The questionnaire was completed by the parent who spent the most time with the child and knew the child best. From the 4983 families, 332 low-income single parents reliant on welfare with a formal or informal child support order in place were identified.

Results After controlling for income, the discrepancy between expected and actual child support predicted school functioning, conduct problems, total mental health problems and involvement in activities. Discrepancy between expected and actual child support payments did not predict the remaining health-related quality of life domains, mental health domains, global child health or parental psychosocial distress.

Conclusion This was the first study to examine how the discrepancy between expected and actual child support payments relates to child health, providing important data on the effectiveness of the child support system for children's well-being. These findings highlight the potential impact of the discrepancy on school functioning, conduct problems, total mental health problems and involvement in activities.

Journal impact factors: implications for the nursing profession

Background: The journal impact factor (IF) has become widely used as an absolute measure of the quality of professional journals. It is also increasingly used as a tool for measuring the academic performance of researchers and to inform decisions concerning the appointment and tenure of academic staff as well as the viability of their departments/schools. In keeping with these IF-related trends, nurse researchers and faculty the world over are being increasingly expected to publish only in journals that have a high IF and to abandon all other forms of publishing (including books and book chapters) that do not attract IF rankings.

Issues: The IF obsession is placing in jeopardy the sustainability and hence viability of nursing journals and academic nursing publication lists (academic texts). If nurse authors abandon their publishing agenda and publish only in 'elite' journals (many of which may be outside nursing), the capacity of the nursing profession to develop and control the cutting edge of its disciplinary knowledge could be placed at risk.

Actions: Other means for assessing the quality and impact of nursing journals need to be devised. In addition, other works (such as books and book chapters) need also to be included in quality metrics. Nurse authors and journal editors must work together and devise ways to ensure the sustainability and viability of nursing publications.

Building capacity for rural health : the role of boundary crosser and the impact of their behaviours on community readiness partnerships

The concept of partnership has entered policy rhetoric and is urged as good practice in a variety of domains including health. Rural communities tend to have fewer resources available for the provision of services such as health than their metropolitan counterparts, and so could be expected to benefit from partnerships with external agencies. Indicators of coalition maturity for working in partnership with external agents in order to build stronger communities are distilled from the group development and partnership research literature and considered in the light of the experiences of the University Department of Rural Health in community engagement. The chapter draws on experiences of two rural community coalitions working to plan and negotiate health service provision. The coalitions were analysed against the indicators. A key indicator of maturity and readiness for working in partnership with external agents is related to the behaviour of ‘boundary crossers’. Boundary crossers are defined as people who move freely between two or more domains and who understand the values, cultures and language, and have the trust, of both. Domains can be within a community or be the community and an external sector. Community health professionals, especially those in senior positions, often act as boundary crossers between the community and broader domains such as regional/state health services or policy, although other community members can fill the role. Other key indicators of coalition maturity for working in partnership with external agents include local leadership that empowers the community, a willingness of community coalitions to take risks and mould opportunities to meet their vision, and a culture of critical reflection and evaluation of past actions.

This chapter analyses the impact of boundary crossing behaviour on community readiness and partnerships with external agents that are intended to build rural community capacity to plan and negotiate health service provision. It is argued that the characteristics and modus operandi of boundary crossers who are members of rural community coalitions affect the level of maturity of the coalitions and community readiness to work with external agents. An understanding of the characteristics and modus operandi of boundary crossers provides valuable insights for external agents in designing their approach to partnerships that build rural community capacity for health.

Impact of electronic data interchange in the Australian automotive industry

Information technology continues to play an increasingly significant role in the development of firms competing in the vast array of markets from those classified as global markets, such as the automotive industry, to the smaller nationally-based markets such as retailing. An objective of electronic commerce is to assist organisations to remain competitive and gain entry to markets which were previously unattainable. This study focuses on the organisational impact of one form of electronic commerce (electronic data interchange) on the component sector of the Australian automotive industry and examines the extent to which trading partner relationships have been affected. The research investigates the extent to which the integration of electronic data interchange (EDI) with an organisation’s internal application system may facilitate specific net benefits. The automotive industry became the first Australian industry to cooperatively adopt EDI. Research to date has not adequately examined the organisational impact of the nature and extent of net benefits gained from EDI adoption. To achieve the objective of assessing EDI net benefits, a conceptual model was developed. The model proposed that the level of EDI net benefits expected is influenced by the size of the organisation and the concentration of trade achieved within the industry via intervening links through (a) the level of senior management commitment and (b) the extent of system integration. Nine empirically testable research propositions are derived from the model, each testing the relationship between model constructs. Data was collected from 114 component suppliers to Ford Australia in 1992 and 1994 using a repeated cross-sectional longitudinal design. Structural equation modelling using partial least squares was adopted in the analysis of the data. A pure longitudinal model together with 12 case studies of selected component manufacturers supplemented the research design. The results of the research showed that the proposed conceptual model is a good description of the data. In particular, net benefits obtained from EDI adoption are directly determined by the size of the organisation, and the extent to which firms integrate EDI into their internal application systems. The level of net benefits is only indirectly influenced by the level of senior management commitment to the EDI project through (a) management commitment’s direct effect on integration, and (b) the direct effect the volume of trade a supplier achieves with the automotive industry on senior management commitment and system integration. The major benefits organisations experienced from EDI were enhanced productivity, clerical staff savings, improved data accuracy, enhanced customer service and reduced administration costs. The research showed that few suppliers gained inventory savings from EDI, a frequently claimed benefit from EDI adoption. Evidence of small improvements in product quality emerged from the results. In summary, this research attempts to make two primary contributions to knowledge, first in providing a method by which net benefits from electronic commerce can be measured within an industry adopting electronic trading, and second, by providing organisations with the knowledge of the specific net benefits organisations could expect from EDI adoption, together with the four major factors affecting these benefits. The research concludes with possible directions for future research, in particular an assessment of the impact of incorporating financial EDI into electronic trading.

Macroeconomic impact of foreign aid to developing countries

The thesis looks at the macroeconomic impact of foreign aid. It is specially concerned with aid's impact on the public sector of less developed countries < LDCs> . Since the overwhelming majority of aid is directed to the public sector of LDCs, one can only understand the broader macroeconomic impact of aid if one first understands its impact on this sector. To this end, the thesis econometrically estimates " fiscal response" models of aid. These models, in essence, attempt to shed light on public sector fiscal behaviour in the presence of aid inflows, being specially concerned with the way aid is used to finance various categories of expenditures. The underlaying concern is to extent to which aid is " fungible" -that is, whether it finances consumption expenditure and reductions in taxation revenue in LDCs. A number of alternative models are derived from a utility maximisation framework. These alternatives reflect different assumptions regarding the behaviour of LDC public sectors and relate to the endogeniety of aid, whether or not recurrent expenditure is financed from domestic borrowing and the determination of domestic borrowing. The original frameworks of earlier studies are extended in a number of ways, including the use of a public sector utility function which is fully consistent with expected maximising behaviour. Estimates of these models' parameters are obtained using both time-series and cross-section data, dating from the 1960s, for Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and the Philippines. Both structural and reduced-form equations are estimated. Results suggest that foreign aid is indeed fungible, albeit at different levels. Moreover, the overall impact of aid on public sector investment, consumption, domestic borrowing and taxation varies between countries. Generally speaking, aid leads to increases in investment and consumption expenditure, but reduces taxation and domestic borrowing. Comparative analysis does, however, show that these results are highly sensitive to alternative behavioural assumptions and, therefore, model specification.

The impact of caring for a child with cerebral palsy : quality of life for mothers and fathers

Background:  Although it is expected that caring for a child with cerebral palsy (CP) can impact on the quality of life (QOL) of caregivers, the QOL of carers' has yet to be adequately examined. The aims of this study are to: (1) explore the QOL of mothers and fathers of children with CP aged 3–18 years; and (2) examine whether the impact of caring for a child with CP changes from childhood to adolescence.

Method: A qualitative study was conducted utilizing a grounded theory framework. Twenty-four mothers and 13 fathers of children and adolescents with CP aged 3–7 years (n = 15), 8–12 years (n = 10) and 13–18 years (n = 12) and with varying levels of impairment (GMFCS Level I = 1, II = 4, II = 3, IV = 5, V = 12) participated in semi-structured interviews about their QOL. The transcripts were analysed to identify issues affecting parental QOL.

Results: There were no differences in parental QOL among subgroups (i.e. mothers and fathers, age groups, GMFCS levels). Parental QOL ranged across a wide spectrum. Caring for a child with CP affects a parent's physical well-being, social well-being, freedom and independence, family well-being and financial stability. Parents indicated that they often feel unsupported by the services they access.

Conclusions: Caring for a child with CP can both positively and negatively impact on a parent's life. There is value for both parents and children if parental concerns and determinants of QOL are considered in overall programme planning and service delivery for children and their families.