A random coefficient approach to the predictability of stock returns in panels

© The Author, 2014. Most studies of the predictability of returns are based on time series data, and whenever panel data are used, the testing is almost always conducted in an unrestricted unit-by-unit fashion, which makes for a very heavy parametrization of the model. On the other hand, the few panel tests that exist are too restrictive in the sense that they are based on homogeneity assumptions that might not be true. As a response to this, the current study proposes new predictability tests in the context of a random coefficient panel data model, in which the null of no predictability corresponds to the joint restriction that the predictive slope has zero mean and variance. The tests are applied to a large panel of stocks listed at the New York Stock Exchange. The results suggest that while the predictive slopes tend to average to zero, in case of book-to-market and cash flow-to-price the variance of the slopes is positive, which we take as evidence of predictability.

Stock return predictability and determinants of predictability and profits

We examine stock return predictability for India and find strong evidence of sectoral return predictability over market return predictability. We show that mean-variance investors make statistically significant and economically meaningful profits by tracking financial ratios. For the first time in this literature, we examine the determinants of time-varying predictability and mean-variance profits. We show that both expected and unexpected shocks emanating from most financial ratios explain sectoral return predictability and profits. These are fresh contributions to the understanding of asset pricing.

Role of index bonds in an optimal dynamic asset allocation model with real subsistence consumption

We investigate the role of index bonds in a dynamic consumption and asset allocation model where the rate of real consumption at any given time cannot fall below a fixed level. An explicit form of the optimal consumption and portfolio rule for a class of Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utility functions is derived. Consumption increases above the subsistence level only when wealth exceeds a threshold value. Risky investments in equity and nominal bonds are initially proportional to the excess of wealth over a lower bound, and then increase nonlinearly with wealth. The desirability of investing in the risky assets are related to the agent’s risk preference, the equity premium, and the inflation risk premium. The demand for index bonds is also obtained. The results should be useful for the management of defined benefit pension funds, university endowments, and other portfolios which have a withdrawal pre-commitment in real terms.

Intraday return predictability, portfolio maximisation, and hedging

We examine whether intraday Chinese return predictability is linked to optimal portfolio holding and hedging. We find that: (1) S&P500 futures returns only predict Chinese spot market returns in up to 5-minute of trading with predictability disappearing at higher frequencies of trade; (2) the portfolio weight is maximised at the 5-minute trading frequency, when predictability is the strongest; and (3) when predictability is the strongest, significantly less shorting of the futures is required to minimise risk when a long position is taken in the Chinese market.

Estimating the equity risk premium for economies in the Asian region

The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is widely used in economic and financial analysis, yet it is difficult to find empirical estimates of the ERP that are generally accepted. The paucity of data in Asian economies exacerbates the problems of estimation. This study estimates the ERP for the larger market-orientated Asian economies and compares the estimates with those of the United States. Surprisingly, of the seven economies examined, the ERP of four cannot be statistically differentiated from that of the United States.

Stock market efficiency withstands another challenge : solving the “sell in May/buy after Halloween” puzzle

Examining the years 1970 to 1998, Bouman and Jacobsen (2002) document unusually high monthly returns during the November-April periods for both United States (U.S.) and foreign stock markets and label this phenomenon the Halloween effect. Their research suggests that the Halloween effect represents an exploitable anomaly and has negative implications for claims of stock market efficiency.

Re-examining Bouman and Jacobsen’s empirical results for the U.S. reveals that their results are driven by two outliers, the “Crash” of October 1987 and the collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in August 1998. After inserting a dummy variable to account for the impact of the two identified outliers, the Halloween effect becomes statistically insignificant. This anomaly is not economically exploitable for U.S. equity markets. We extend the research to the S&P 500 futures contract and find no evidence of an exploitable Halloween effect over the period April 1982-April 2003.

Another explanation of the mutual fund fee puzzle

This paper demonstrates that investor sentiment explains the recent puzzle of the negative relation between fees and before-fee performance of equity mutual funds. Using a composite proxy for investor sentiment, the puzzle can be explained stronger by investor sentiment, compared to the strategic fee-setting explanation discussed in the literature. More-sentiment driven investors would like to select more skilled fund managers, leading to a better future performance in short run. Additionally, when sentiment is high (low), it results in lower (higher) fees. Our results highlight the use of investor sentiment approach in determining mutual fund fees and performance.

How accurately can convertibles be classified as debt or equity for tax purposes? Evidence from Australia

The New Business Tax System (Debt and Equity) Act established a set ofcriteria by which convertible securities could be classified as “debt-like” or “equity-like” for tax purposes. Using data on 256 convertible issues made in Australia between 2001 and 2012, we show that there is a strong relation between, on the one hand, a convertible’s ex ante classification determined at issuance using the tax criteria and, on the other hand, its ex post classification based on the conversion premium at maturity. We conclude that the criteria have been an efficient means of classifying convertibles. We also find an industry effect where debt-like convertibles are more likely to be associated with the resources, metals and mining firms, whilst equity-like are mainly issued by the finance sector. This finding is consistent with the solution to a finance-sequencing problem in the former case, and the impact of capital adequacy regulation in the latter.

Investment opportunities and leverage: some Australian evidence on the role of board monitoring and director equity ownership

This paper tests the hypothesis that the negative relationship between investment opportunity set (IOS) and debt is moderated by board monitoring and director equity ownership. According to contracting theory, firms with high growth opportunities (high IOS) are associated with lower levels of debt as a result of the asset substitution and the under-investment problem. However, our hypotheses test the conjecture that the negative debt / IOS relationship will be moderated by the proportion of non-executive directors (NEDs) on the board and director equity ownership. NEDs provide higher monitoring which reduces management discretion while director equity ownership provides incentives for managers to maximize the value of the firm. More specifically, we expect that high growth firms with a higher proportion of non-executive directors and director equity ownership are less likely to be associated with asset substitution and under investment. Thus, the negative investment opportunity set / debt relationship will be weaker for firms with higher levels of non-executive directors and high director equity ownership. Data collected from Australian companies support both these two hypotheses. Results have significant implications for corporate finance theory.

Globalisation and the restructuring of higher education for new knowledge economies: new dangers or old habits troubling gender equity work in universities?

This article undertakes a feminist critique of the restructuring of the modern university in Australia. It considers the interaction of the processes of globalisation, corporatisation (through the twin strategies of marketisation and managerialism) and the social relations of gender, and their implication for gender equity work in the academy. The paper locates the reform of Australian universities within their Western context, and considers the gendered effects of the new disciplinary technologies of quality assurance and online learning on the position of women academics. It concludes with some comments about the shift in language from equity to diversity which has accompanied corporatisation, and how this has effectively coopted women's intellectual labour to do the work of the entrepreneurial university.