Ensembling MML causal discovery

This paper presents an ensemble MML approach for the discovery of causal models. The component learners are formed based on the MML causal induction methods. Six different ensemble causal induction algorithms are proposed. Our experiential results reveal that (1) the ensemble MML causal induction approach has achieved an improved result compared with any single learner in terms of learning accuracy and correctness; (2) Among all the ensemble causal induction algorithms examined, the weighted voting without seeding algorithm outperforms all the rest; (3) It seems that the ensembled CI algorithms could alleviate the local minimum problem. The only drawback of this method is that the time complexity is increased by δ times, where δ is the ensemble size.

An empirical study of encoding schemes and search strategies in discovering causal networks

Efficiently inducing precise causal models accurately reflecting given data sets is the ultimate goal of causal discovery. The algorithm proposed by Wallace et al. [10] has demonstrated its ability in discovering Linear Causal Models from data. To explore the ways to improve efficiency, this research examines three different encoding schemes and four searching strategies. The experimental results reveal that (1) specifying parents encoding method is the best among three encoding methods we examined; (2) In the discovery of linear causal models, local Hill climbing works very well compared to other more sophisticated methods, like Markov Chain Monte Carto (MCMC), Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Parallel MCMC searching.

Mining sequential causal patterns with user-specified skeletons in multi-sequence of event data

The approaches proposed in the past for discovering sequential patterns mainly focused on single sequential data. In the real world, however, some sequential patterns hide their essences among multi-sequential event data. It has been noted that knowledge discovery with either user-specified constraints, or templates, or skeletons is receiving wide attention because it is more efficient and avoids the tedious selection of useful patterns from the mass-produced results. In this paper, a novel pattern in multi-sequential event data that are correlated and its mining approach are presented. We call this pattern sequential causal pattern. A group of skeletons of sequential causal patterns, which may be specified by the user or generated by the program, are verified or mined by embedding them into the mining engine. Experiments show that this method, when applied to discovering the occurring regularities of a crop pest in a region, is successful in mining sequential causal patterns with user-specified skeletons in multi-sequential event data.

Discovering linear causal model from incomplete data

One common drawback in algorithms for learning Linear Causal Models is that they can not deal with incomplete data set. This is unfortunate since many real problems involve missing data or even hidden variable. In this paper, based on multiple imputation, we propose a three-step process to learn linear causal models from incomplete data set. Experimental results indicate that this algorithm is better than the single imputation method (EM algorithm) and the simple list deletion method, and for lower missing rate, this algorithm can even find models better than the results from the greedy learning algorithm MLGS working in a complete data set. In addition, the method is amenable to parallel or distributed processing, which is an important characteristic for data mining in large data sets.

The discovery of generalized causal models with mixed variables using MML criterion

One major difficulty frustrating the application of linear causal models is that they are not easily adapted to cope with discrete data. This is unfortunate since most real problems involve both continuous and discrete variables. In this paper, we consider a class of graphical models which allow both continuous and discrete variables, and propose the parameter estimation method and a structure discovery algorithm based on Minimum Message Length and parameter estimation. Experimental results are given to demonstrate the potential for the application of this method.

Using causal mapping to find new avenue for organizational fit research

Although organizational fit is strongly linked to important psychological outcomes such as motivation, satisfaction, turnover and performance, there is still a lot of confusion about definitions and conceptualizations of the construct. One reason for this is that fit researchers have almost exclusively conducted theory-driven nomothetic studies that have utilized varying approaches to the term. In this paper, we call for exploratory research that listens to how workers construct their own sense of fit and suggest that researchers should adopt idiographic data gathering techniques, coupled with nomothetic analysis tools, to do so. To enable this, we explain how fit researchers might use causal maps and thereby develop a stronger understanding of organizational fit that is grounded in how people conceive it.

Realist synthesis : illustrating the method for implementation research

Background
Realist synthesis is an increasingly popular approach to the review and synthesis of evidence, which focuses on understanding the mechanisms by which an intervention works (or not). There are few published examples of realist synthesis. This paper therefore fills a gap by describing, in detail, the process used for a realist review and synthesis to answer the question 'what interventions and strategies are effective in enabling evidence-informed healthcare?' The strengths and challenges of conducting realist review are also considered.
Methods
The realist approach involves identifying underlying causal mechanisms and exploring how they work under what conditions. The stages of this review included: defining the scope of the review (concept mining and framework formulation); searching for and scrutinising the evidence; extracting and synthesising the evidence; and developing the narrative, including hypotheses.
Results
Based on key terms and concepts related to various interventions to promote evidenceinformed healthcare, we developed an outcome-focused theoretical framework. Questions were tailored for each of four theory/intervention areas within the theoretical framework and were used to guide development of a review and data extraction process. The search for literature within our first theory area, change agency, was executed and the screening procedure resulted in inclusion of 52 papers. Using the questions relevant to this theory area, data were extracted by one reviewer and validated by a second reviewer. Synthesis involved organisation of extracted data into evidence tables, theming and formulation of chains of inference, linking between the chains of inference, and hypothesis formulation. The narrative was developed around the hypotheses generated within the change agency theory area.
Conclusions
Realist synthesis lends itself to the review of complex interventions because it accounts for context as well as outcomes in the process of systematically and transparently synthesising relevant literature. While realist synthesis demands flexible thinking and the ability to deal with complexity, the rewards include the potential for more pragmatic conclusions than alternative approaches to systematic reviewing. A separate publication will report the findings of the review.