Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian metaregression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Deterministic versus stochastic quantitative microbial Risk Assessment models for wastewater irrigation of food crops

Reuse of wastewater to irrigate food crops is being practiced in many parts of the world and is becoming more commonplace as the competition for, and stresses on, freshwater resources intensify. But there are risks associated with wastewater irrigation, including the possibility of transmission of pathogens causing infectious disease, to both workers in the field and to consumers buying and eating produce irrigated with wastewater. To manage these risks appropriately we need objective and quantitative estimates of them. This is typically achieved through one of two modelling approaches: deterministic or stochastic. Each parameter in a deterministic model is represented by a single value, whereas in stochastic models probability functions are used. Stochastic models are theoretically superior because they account for variability and uncertainty, but they are computationally demanding and not readily accessible to water resource and public health managers. We constructed models to estimate risk of enteric virus infection arising from the consumption of wastewater-irrigated horticultural crops (broccoli, cucumber and lettuce), and compared the resultant levels of risk between the deterministic and stochastic approaches. Several scenarios were tested for each crop, accounting for different concentrations of enteric viruses and different lengths of environmental exposure (i.e. the time between the last irrigation event and harvest, when the viruses are liable to decay or inactivation). In most situations modelled the two approaches yielded similar estimates of risk (within 1 order-of-magnitude). The two methods diverged most markedly, up to around 2 orders-of-magnitude, when there was large uncertainty associated with the estimate of virus concentration and the exposure period was short (1 day). Therefore, in some circumstances deterministic modelling may offer water resource managers a pragmatic alternative to stochastic modelling, but its usefulness as a surrogate will depend upon the level of uncertainty in the model parameters.

Estuary environmental flows assessment methodology : final specification report

This report provides a consistent and systematic approach to the determination of environmental water requirements for estuaries in Victoria.

Victoria’s limited water resources are subject to competing demands. These demands, including town water supplies and irrigation requirements, often deplete the flow entering estuaries and put their environmental values at risk.

The Estuary Environmental Flows Assessment Methodology (EEFAM) is a standard methodology which can be applied in a consistent manner across all Victorian estuaries, according to their priority. It is not anticipated that this method would be used for the Gippsland Lakes or Port Phillip or Western Port Bay.

Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project's objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner

Quantitative microbial risk assessment modelling for the use of reclaimed water in irrigated horticulture

Reuse of treated sewage effluent for the irrigation of horticultural crops is being propounded and practiced as a means of alleviating pressure on freshwater resources. Concerns have been raised. however, as to the risk to human health, primarily disease, associated with this practice. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a useful tool for estimating this risk. We describe how QMRA works and the current state of knowledge of the components of QMRA models for the horticultural reuse scenario.

Risk assessment in child protection: problem rather than solution?

Risk assessment in child protection services has been promoted as the most reliable way to ensure that maltreatment to children is prevented and has become central to practice with children and families. However, recent research in Australia has suggested that children are being left in unsafe situations, leading to further maltreatment, by the very agencies responsible for their protection. The present article explores the reasons why child protection has become central to child protection practice and presents a wide ranging critical appraisal of risk assessment and its application. It is argued that risk assessment is a flawed process and, as a central tenet of practice, is implicated in any problems that children's protective services face. Consequently, any future reconfiguration of services for children in need of protection needs to include a re-evaluation of the efficacy of risk  assessment.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment models for consumption of raw vegetables irrigated with reclaimed water

Quantitative microbial risk assessment models for estimating the annual risk of enteric virus infection associated with consuming raw vegetables that have been overhead irrigated with nondisinfected secondary treated reclaimed water were constructed. We ran models for several different scenarios of crop type, viral concentration in effluent, and time since last irrigation event. The mean annual risk of infection was always less for cucumber than for broccoli, cabbage, or lettuce. Across the various crops, effluent qualities, and viral decay rates considered, the annual risk of infection ranged from 10–3 to 10–1 when reclaimed-water irrigation ceased 1 day before harvest and from 10–9 to 10–3 when it ceased 2 weeks before harvest. Two previously published decay coefficients were used to describe the die-off of viruses in the environment. For all combinations of crop type and effluent quality, application of the more aggressive decay coefficient led to annual risks of infection that satisfied the commonly propounded benchmark of ≤10–4, i.e., one infection or less per 10,000 people per year, providing that 14 days had elapsed since irrigation with reclaimed water. Conversely, this benchmark was not attained for any combination of crop and water quality when this withholding period was 1 day. The lower decay rate conferred markedly less protection, with broccoli and cucumber being the only crops satisfying the 10–4 standard for all water qualities after a 14-day withholding period. Sensitivity analyses on the models revealed that in nearly all cases, variation in the amount of produce consumed had the most significant effect on the total uncertainty surrounding the estimate of annual infection risk. The models presented cover what would generally be considered to be worst-case scenarios: overhead irrigation and consumption of vegetables raw. Practices such as subsurface, furrow, or drip irrigation and postharvest washing/disinfection and food preparation could substantially lower risks and need to be considered in future models, particularly for developed nations where these extra risk reduction measures are more common.

A retail supply chain risk assessment conceptual model

Supply chains are increasingly relying on information and communications technologies and in particular electronic commerce to facilitate transactions between supply chain partners. The adoption of these enabling technologies brings several enhancements to the conduct of business including gains in efficiency. However there are also drawbacks inherent in these technologies that include threats that are imposed on businesses that use them. This paper presents a study on retail supply chains and the risks and vulnerabilities that cooperating supply chain partners are exposed to when adopting these technologies. In particular, the paper discusses the various threats and vulnerabilities of retail supply and presents a conceptual model of such risks.

The mental health Risk Assessment and Management Process (RAMP) for schools: II. Process evaluation

The Risk Assessment and Management Process (RAMP) is a whole-school process for the assessment and management of student’s mental health and wellbeing in primary and secondary schools. A process evaluation revealed that RAMP was implemented as intended across six primary and three secondary schools in Melbourne, Australia. Using the RAMP risk and protective factors monitoring form and screening processes, each school identified ‘at-risk’ students who had not previously been identified or received assistance from welfare staff at the school. School staff and mental health workers from local agencies reported improvements in their knowledge of risk and protective factors, and their ability to identify at-risk students following RAMP. They also reported satisfaction in outcomes for at-risk students managed within the school using RAMP. All the primary schools and one of the
secondary schools continued to use some RAMP processes in their school up to 6 months after the initial implementation of the program.

Environmental risk factors of young onset Parkinson`s disease: a case-control study

While the cause of Parkinson's disease (PD) remains unknown, recent evidence suggests certain environmental factors, such as well water drinking, herbicides and pesticides exposure, and neurotoxins, may trigger the chain of oxidative reactions culminating in the death of dopaminergic neurons in substantia nigra to cause parkinsonism. Most studies to date focused on PD with old age onset. However, there is a peculiar group of parkinsonian patients, the young onset Parkinson's disease (YOPD), in whom the age of onset is before 40. It is intriguing to know whether earlier exposure to the putative neurotoxin(s) may contribute to the earlier onset. We therefore conducted this case-control study in which 60 PD patients, 30 YOPD patients and the same number of age- and sex-matched young controls were included. Using logistic regression, we found well water drinking and head injury were risk factors for the development of YOPD. When YOPD patients were compared with PD, we found head injury and exercise were the significant predictors. Keeping all other variables constant, head injury was a risk factor and exercise appeared to be a protective factor. We conclude early exposure to well water drinking and head trauma may trigger and expedite the appearance of parkinsonian features, but such acceleration may be prevented through regular exercise.

Child protection, risk assessment and blame ideology

In this article we use qualitative data drawn from a sample of child protection cases 10 demonstrate holV the process of al1ributing blame to parents and carers for child maltreatment is a sign!ficanr influence 011 decisionmaking,
sometimes to the detriment of assessing the flltllre safety of children. We foctls on two cases which both demonstrate how the process of apportioning blame can lead to decisions which might not be considered 10 be in the best interests of the children concerned. We conceptualise blame as an 'ideology' with its roots in the discourse of the 'risk society', pelpetuated and sustained by the technology of risk assessment. The concept of blame ideology is offered as an addition to theOlY which seeks 10 explain the influences on decision making in child protection practice.

The effects of time pressure and experience on nurses' risk assessment decisions : a signal detection analysis

Background: Time pressure and, occasionally, suboptimal assessment decisions are features of nursing in acute care.

Objectives: To explore the effect of generic and specialist clinical experience on the ability to detect the need to take action in acute care and the impact of time pressure on nurses' decision-making performance.

Methods: Experienced acute care registered nurses (n = 241) were presented with 50 vignettes of real clinical risk assessments. Each vignette contained seven information cues. In response to these vignettes, nurses had to decide whether to intervene or not. The 26 vignettes were time limited and mixed randomly into the 50 cases. Signal detection analysis was used to establish nurses' performance, personal decision thresholds ([beta]), and their abilities (d') to distinguish a signal of clinical risk from the clinical noise of noncontributory information.

Results: Nurses had significantly lower d' and were significantly less likely to indicate intervening under time pressure. For ability-but not threshold-there was a significant interaction of time pressure and years of experience in acute care. With no time pressure, d' increased in line with years of experience. Under time pressure, there was no effect.

Discussion: Time pressure reduced nurses' ability to detect the need and the tendency to report intervening. Thus, there were more failures to report appropriate intervention under time pressure, and the positive effects of clinical experience were negated under time pressure. More and larger scale research on the effect on clinical outcomes of time pressured nursing choices is required.