Human carrying capacity and human health

The silence around overpopulation prevents the global health community from making the necessary link between the planner's limited ability to support its people and health and development crises. The author describes how popular thinking on population control has been shaped over the last 200 years and how out failure to address the population explosion may be one cause of recent epidemics and social unrest.

Human carrying capacity and human health

The issue of human overpopulation has fallen out of favor among most contemporary demographers, economists, and epidemiologists. Discussing population control has become a taboo topic. Yet, this taboo has major implications for public health.

The silence around overpopulation prevents the global health community from making the necessary link between the planet's limited ability to support its people (its carrying capacity—see sidebar on following page) and health and development crises. In this article, I describe how popular thinking on population control has been shaped over the last 200 years, and how our failure to address the population explosion may be one cause of recent epidemics and social unrest.

Sustaining human carrying capacity : a tool for regional sustainability assessment

Regional sustainability is an important focus for natural resource management. Measuring how social and economic systems are progressing to sustainability is therefore a critical need. But it is dependent upon the development of analytical and methodological tools to measure progress, particularly, we argue, at the regional level. Achieving sustainability at the regional scale is important since it's at this scale where social institutions and ecological functioning are most closely linked. However, our recent study that evaluated the effectiveness of current sustainability assessment methods at the regional scale found methods developed for the global, national and state scales are not entirely effective at assessing sustainability at this spatial scale. Following on from this critique, we developed and tested a new method for assessing sustainability, which we believe is applicable at the regional scale. The framework, Sustaining Human Carrying Capacity (SHCC), evaluates the sustainability of regional human activities by considering the pressures these activities have on regional ecosystems. SHCC was tested and evaluated at the regional scale, demonstrating its potential to be an effective method for monitoring sustainability. It also has potential to be used to inform the community and decision makers about the sustainability of their region, and help guide strategic planning to progress sustainability.

Research methodologies for planning ecotourism and nature conservation

Ecotourism is an important niche market in the world tourism industry. It is becoming increasingly popular as an alternative to mass tourism. The emergence of ecotourism was facilitated by the environmental damage associated with mass tourism. Ecotourism is defined in many ways and there is no consensus as to its exact meaning. However, a number of salient elements, such as environmental conservation, maintenance of biodiversity, a satisfying experience for the visitors, study and appreciation of nature and sustainable community development, are included in many definitions. Tourism creates negative environmental externalities in the form of environmental damage. Such adverse effects can have serious implications for the tourism industry because they damage the very natural resource that forms the raw material for ecotourism. Ecotourism ventures should thus be properly planned and implemented and carefully monitored. Proper planning of ecotourism is hampered by the paucity of relevant qualitative and quantitative information. The use of analytical tools such as the Contingent Valuation Method, carrying capacity, decision analysis techniques with which multiobjective and uncertain consequences can be analysed, and other management strategies, such as the Safe Minimum Standard, can be useful in enabling better planning of ecotourism. Ecotourism can thus enhance the opportunities for better management of natural resources while providing a satisfying experience for the visitor.

Increasing community capacity to prevent childhood obesity : challenges, lessons learned and results from the Romp & Chomp intervention

Background
Obesity is a major public health issue; however, only limited evidence is available about effective ways to prevent obesity, particularly in early childhood. Romp & Chomp was a community-wide obesity prevention intervention conducted in Geelong Australia with a target group of 12,000 children aged 0-5 years. The intervention had an environmental and capacity building focus and we have recently demonstrated that the prevalence of overweight/obesity was lower in intervention children, post-intervention. Capacity building is defined as the development of knowledge, skills, commitment, structures, systems and leadership to enable effective health promotion and the aim of this study was to determine if the capacity of the Geelong community, represented by key stakeholder organisations, to support healthy eating and physical activity for young children was increased after Romp & Chomp.

Methods
A mixed methods evaluation with three data sources was utilised. 1) Document analysis comprised assessment of the documented formative and intervention activities against a capacity building framework (five domains: Partnerships, Leadership, Resource Allocation, Workforce Development, and Organisational Development); 2) Thematic analysis of key informant interviews (n = 16); and 3) the quantitative Community Capacity Index Survey.

Results
Document analysis showed that the majority of the capacity building activities addressed the Partnerships, Resource Allocation and Organisational Development domains of capacity building, with a lack of activity in the Leadership and Workforce Development domains. The thematic analysis revealed the establishment of sustainable partnerships, use of specialist advice, and integration of activities into ongoing formal training for early childhood workers. Complex issues also emerged from the key informant interviews regarding the challenges of limited funding, high staff turnover, changing governance structures, lack of high level leadership and unclear communication strategies. The Community Capacity Index provided further evidence that the project implementation network achieved a moderate level of capacity.

Conclusions
Romp & Chomp increased the capacity of organisations, settings and services in the Geelong community to support healthy eating and physical activity for young children. Despite this success there are important learnings from this mixed methods evaluation that should inform current and future community-based public health and health promotion initiatives.

Trial Registration Number: ANZCTRN12607000374460

Assessing the economic benefits of starling detection and control to Western Australia

The common starling (Sturnus vulgaris) has a proven invasion history in many countries, and at a continental scale in North America and Australasia. In Australia, starlings are firmly established throughout the eastern states and Tasmania. Incursions of starlings into Western Australia (WA) represent a significant threat to this State’s agricultural, public amenity and biodiversity assets. We present models of starling population dynamics that incorporate environmental and control effort variability. We incorporate knowledge of starling ecology with economic data to assess the potential economic cost of starlings establishing in WA, evaluating the cost–benefits for each management scenario. We calculated starling population size will approach carrying capacity in WA within as little as 30 years if left unchecked. A population of this size could cost the WA economy up to $43.7 million annually in 2011/2012 dollars. Over a 50 year horizon, the conservative benefit–cost ratio for ongoing detection and control at the current level of expenditure is 6.03:1. However, even under current levels of control, starling numbers are projected to increase to almost 11 million by 2061. Further improvements in the efficiency of starling detection and control and/or an increased level of expenditure on detection and control are required.

Heavy metal accumulation in soils at three field sites subject to effluent irrigation

Three field sites were chosen to study the environmental assimilative capacity of heavy metals in soil. These sites were the Werribee Farm and the Myome Farm in Australia and Shenyang Zhangshi Irrigation Area in China. The Werribee Farm and the Shenyang Zhangshi Irrigation Area received sewage treatment and application on land for a long time. The Myome farm is an experimental site in which investigations on land application of municipal wastewater on water repellent soils is currently being trailed. Heavy metal contamination, in particular Cr, Cu and Zn, in the Land Filtration soil of Werribee Farm was widespread. More than a century of sewage irrigation has occurred in the Werribee Farm. The temporal distribution pattern of heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) in the soil at this site follow an exponential trend with time and the spatial distribution pattern of accumulation of heavy metals in different paddocks correlates with the number of years of sewage irrigation at that site in the Farm. Extensive sewage irrigation at Shenyang Zhangshi Irrigation Area resulted in significant Cd pollution in soil-plant (rice) system and poses a significant threat to the health of local people. Even after eight years since cessation of sewage irrigation, the bioavailable fractions of Cd in the soil as analyzed by sequential extraction techniques were very high thus illustrating long-term persistence. The simultaneous competitive adsorption of metals in water repellent soils (at Myome Farm in South Australia) was studied. In the competitive situation, Cr, Pb and Cu are the heavy metal cations more strongly adsorbed by the soil, whereas Cd, Ni and Zn are the least adsorbed. The increase in Freundlich adsorption capacity by clay amendment suggested that clayed soils are capable sorption of higher heavy metal loadings compared to the non-clayed water repellent soil, which is more vulnerable to heavy metal inputs. A simple model of environmental assimilative capacity is proposed. The results of comparison of the three field sites shows that the Werribee Farm has a higher environmental assimilative capacity of heavy metals in soil than the soils at Shenyang Zhangshi Irrigation Area and Myome Farm, however heavy metal contamination at Werribee Farm is still a concern. The model of environmental assimilative capacity of heavy metals in soil is an effective tool to assist management of effluent applied land irrigation systems and can be used to better design environmental engineering systems.

Performance of wrought aluminium and magnesium alloy tubes in three-point bending

This present work examines the load carrying capacity, energy absorption and fracture characteristics of wrought magnesium and aluminium alloy tubes in three-point bending. Magnesium alloy AZ31, and aluminium alloys 6063 and 7075, were extruded into cylindrical tubes of both equivalent thickness and mass. A strong thickness effect was present meaning that the AZ31 tube had significantly higher load and energy absorption performance than an equivalent mass 6063 tube, albeit not as high as the 7075 tube. Hinge formation and maximum load was delayed for the magnesium alloy, meaning that a high energy absorption rate persisted to higher deformation displacements than the aluminium alloys. It was also found that fracture during deformation was dependent on the indenter diameter, tube thickness and lower support separation.

Effect of grain size on the performance of extruded magnesium alloy tubes in three-point bending

The performance of extruded AZ31, AZ61 and AM-EX1 tubes was examined in three-point bending. Different extrusion temperatures were used to investigate the effect of grain size on the load-carrying capacity, energy absorption and fracture propensity of the tubes. Results showed that while the peak load increased with a smaller average recrystallised grain size, the retention of large elongated un-recrystallised grains in the microstructure reduced the load. The presence of the large elongated grains also appeared detrimental to the ability of the tube to deform before fracture.

Rapid I−/I3− diffusion in a molecular-plastic-crystal electrolyte for potential application in solid-state photoelectrochemical cells

High current-carrying capacity and rapid, liquidlike diffusion were achieved in a dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC) based on the plastic-crystalline electrolyte succinonitrile and the I⁻/I₃⁻ redox couple (see diagram). This could lead to the development of true solid-state DSSCs without conventional organic-liquid electrolytes, which can cause problems with long-term device stability.

Comparing experiments of the stressed skin diaphragm spanning several and few purlins

Concerning the specialty of the testing of stressed skin diaphragm assembly, the current loading method of cantilever beam test is improved by the diagonally loading method. In order to investigate the differences of the shear behavior between the stressed skins spanning several purlins and few purlins , which have the same forms and spaces of the connections and purlins, comparing experiments are carried out. Using the curve fitting method, the test results are quantified. The shear rigidity of two specimens is gained. It shows that the shear rigidity of the diaphragm spanning several purlins is quite higher than that spanning few purlins, but the carrying capacity of the former is a little lower than that of the latter.

Retrodicting patch use by foraging swans in a heterogeneous environment using a set of functional responses

Effective conservation of important bird areas requires insight in the number of birds an area can support, and how this carrying capacity changes with habitat modifications. When food depletion is the dominant mechanism of competition, it should in principle be possible to calculate the total time foragers can spend per patch from their functional response (intake rate as a function of food density). However, in the field there are likely to be factors modulating the functional response. In this study previously published results of experiments on captive Bewick's swans were used to obtain functional responses of swans digging for tubers of Fennel pondweed on different foraging substrates: sandy and clayey sediment, and in shallow and deep water. In a field study, four 250×250 m sections belonging to different types (sandy–shallow, clayey–shallow, sandy–deep and clayey–deep) were delineated. Here tubers were sampled with sediment corers in three years, both before and after swan exploitation in autumn, and swans were observed and mapped from a hide in two of these years. Giving-up tuber biomass densities varied among sections. Substitution of these giving-up densities in the derived patch-type-specific functional responses yielded the quitting net energy intake rates in the four sections. As expected from the marginal value theorem, the quitting net energy intake rates did not vary among sections. Moreover, the observed foraging pressure (total foraging time per area) per patch type was in quantitative agreement with the integrated functional responses. These results suggest that in spatially heterogeneous environments, patch exploitation by foragers can be predicted from their functional responses after accounting for foraging substrate.

More than mere numbers: the impact of lethal control on the social stability of a top-order predator

Population control of socially complex species may have profound ecological implications that remain largely invisible if only their abundance is considered. Here we discuss the effects of control on a socially complex top-order predator, the dingo (Canis lupus dingo). Since European occupation of Australia, dingoes have been controlled over much of the continent. Our aim was to investigate the effects of control on their abundance and social stability. We hypothesized that dingo abundance and social stability are not linearly related, and proposed a theoretical model in which dingo populations may fluctuate between three main states: (A) below carrying capacity and socially fractured, (B) above carrying capacity and socially fractured, or (C) at carrying capacity and socially stable. We predicted that lethal control would drive dingoes into the unstable states A or B, and that relaxation of control would allow recovery towards C. We tested our predictions by surveying relative abundance (track density) and indicators of social stability (scent-marking and howling) at seven sites in the arid zone subject to differing degrees of control. We also monitored changes in dingo abundance and social stability following relaxation and intensification of control. Sites where dingoes had been controlled within the previous two years were characterized by low scent-marking activity, but abundance was similar at sites with and without control. Signs of social stability steadily increased the longer an area was allowed to recover from control, but change in abundance did not follow a consistent path. Comparison of abundance and stability among all sites and years demonstrated that control severely fractures social groups, but that the effect of control on abundance was neither consistent nor predictable. Management decisions involving large social predators must therefore consider social stability to ensure their conservation and ecological functioning.

The implications of adult morphology for clutch size in the flatback turtle (Natator depressa)

When the mean adult length and mean clutch volume of marine turtles are examined, a clear pattern for larger species to lay larger clutches is evident, in accord with predictions that female size constrains the available space for carrying eggs. However, when compared with this general trend, the volume of clutches laid by flatback turtles (Natator depressa) are smaller than expected. The implication is that the unusually flat morphology of flatback turtles, provides an additional constraint on their egg carrying capacity.

Are green turtles globally endangered?

Aim  To examine the exploitation, recovery and current status of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nesting at Ascension Island. Location  Ascension Island (UK) (7°57′ S, 14°22′ W), South Atlantic Ocean. Methods  We analysed records of the harvest of green turtles nesting at Ascension Island between 1822 and 1935, illustrating the decline in numbers over this period. Using a deterministic age-class structured model we predict the initial number of breeding females present in the population prior to the recorded harvest and compare this to our estimate of the current population based upon our recent annual surveys (1999–2004). Results  Prior to 1822 we estimate the nesting population of green turtles to have been at least 19,000–22,000 individuals in order for the population to have survived the level of harvest recorded. From recent data (1999–2004), we estimate the current breeding population of green turtles at this site to be 11,000–15,000 females. Our results illustrate a dramatic recovery of the population, which is still increasing exponentially and shows no evidence of slowing, suggesting it has not reached 50% of its carrying capacity. Main conclusions  We estimate that, since the 1970s, the Ascension Island population of green turtles has increased by 285% and question the recent listing of this species as endangered by the IUCN (World Conservation Union), in particular in the Atlantic Ocean, where 75% of the populations assessed by the IUCN are increasing. Indeed, we estimate the global population of this species to be in excess of 2.2 million individuals. We suggest that the IUCN's global listing process detracts attention from those populations that are truly threatened with extinction and should not, in its present form, be applied to globally distributed long-lived species such as marine turtles.