Practitioners' corner: data dependent endogeneity correction in cointegrated panels

This paper examines the small-sample performance of several information based criteria that can be employed to facilitate data dependent endogeneity correction in estimation of cointegrated panel regressions. The Monte Carlo evidence suggests that the criteria generally perform well but that there are differences of practical importance. In particular, the evidence suggests that, although the estimators of the cointegration vectors generally perform well, the criterion with best small-sample performance also leads to the best performing estimator. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2005.

The effect of private school competition on public school performance in Georgia

This article presents estimates of the effect of private school competition on public school performance. Using data on school districts in Georgia, the authors estimate models relating tenth- and third-grade test scores for either reading or mathematics to the level of private school competition. Test scores are not measurably or significantly higher in areas with greater private school competition, a result robust through multiple estimations using three measures of private school competition and a variety of control variables. The authors address the possible endogeneity between test scores and private school competition using instrumental variables estimators, with percentage of the population that is Catholic, county population in 1980, lagged competition, and various other measures as alternative instruments.

Career progression, human capital and pay equity in Australian public sector labour markets

This study uses data from the Victorian Public Sector Census 2004 to identify the extent of equity in pay and career progression (promotion). A system of three equations is developed to capture the endogeneity between human capital and promotion and the interdependence between promotion, pay and human capital. The results indicate that there are substantial differences in the average wages earned by public sector employees in different Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) groups. While some of these differences arise from factors beyond the control of the public sector employers, others arise from bias in the public sector employment system and procedures. The earnings of individual employees in the public sector are determined in a systematic way by the wage structures in the different sub-sectors, the skill base of the employee on recruitment, sub-sector specific promotion rates, acquisition of formal and informal training and the apparent bias within recruitment and promotion systems in dealing with particular groups. The apparent bias of recruitment and promotion systems is complex in makeup and varies within EEO groups as well as between EEO groups. Most of the difference in pay across employees can be explained as an outcome of individual choice and labour market conditions external to the public sector. After adjusting for sectoral wage differences, skill base when recruited, sectoral promotion rate differences, experience in the public sector, whether individuals are employed on a full-time or part-time basis and individual training decisions, the statistical evidence is consistent with the finding that public sector recruitment and promotion systems tends to be biased, on average, against females and those from culturally diverse backgrounds. Achievements in formal education are important for salary progression. This is particularly the case for women. The main drivers of participation in formal education were employer support in both financial and non-financial terms. Promotion rates were important factors in explaining wage differences. Women tended to receive slightly fewer promotions than men, but women received, on average, greater rewards for each promotion.

Board structure and firm performance : evidence from India's top companies

Manuscript Type: Empirical

Research Question/Issue: This paper investigates the relationship between internal governance structures and financial performance of Indian companies. The effectiveness of boards of directors, including board composition, board size, and aspects of board leadership including duality and board busyness are addressed in the Indian context using two theories of corporate governance: agency theory and resource dependency theory.

Research Findings/Insights: The study used a sample of top Indian companies taking into account the endogeneity of the relationships among corporate governance, corporate performance, and corporate capital structure. The study provides some support for aspects of agency theory as a greater proportion of outside directors on boards were associated with improved firm performance. The notion of separating leadership roles in a manner consistent with agency theory was not supported. For instance, the notion that powerful CEOs (duality role, CEO being the promoter, and CEO being the only board manager) have a detrimental effect on performance was not supported. There was some support for resource dependency theory. The findings suggest that larger board size has a positive impact on performance thus supporting the view that greater exposure to the external environment improves access to various resources and thus positively impacts on performance. The study however failed to support the resource dependency theory in terms of the association between frequency of board meetings and performance. Similarly the results showed that outside directors with multiple appointments appeared to have a negative effect on performance, suggesting that "busyness" did not add value in terms of networks and enhancement of resource accessibility.

Theoretical/Academic Implications: The two theories of corporate governance, namely agency and resource dependence theory, were each only partially supported, by the findings of this study. The findings add further to the view that no single theory explains the nexus between corporate governance and performance.

Practitioner/Policy Implications: This study demonstrates that corporate governance measures utilized in developed economies related to boards of directors have some synergies and relevance to emerging economies, such as India. However, the nature of business structures in India, for example the large number of family businesses, may limit the generalizability of the findings and signals the need for further investigation of these businesses. The evidence related to multiple appointments of directors suggests that there may be support for restricting the number of directorships held by any one individual in emerging economies, given that the "busyness" of directors was negatively associated with firm performance.

On institutional ownership and firm performance : a disaggregated view

We study the relationship between institutional ownership and firm performance in Finland. A systems approach is employed to investigate the potential two-way causality between firm performance and ownership structure. Three-stage least squares estimation technique is used to solve for the systems. The evidence suggests an endogeneity problem between firm performance and institutional ownership. However, the magnitude of the problem differs with respect to the concentration of ownership measure used. Our results show that a more equal distribution of the voting power among the largest institutional stakeholder may exert positive effects on firm performance. We also find a significant difference relating to firm performances and equity ownerships between the two classes of institutional investor. Consistent with the ownership structure in Finland, we find that a simple ownership concentration index does not influence firm performance.

Household structure and consumption insurance of the elderly

This paper examines the role of household formation in providing consumption insurance to the elderly. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys, raw tabulations of per adult equivalent consumption indicate that the elderly who live alone have higher levels of well-being relative to those who live with others. This is misleading, however, because the decision to live alone is clearly endogenous. The empirical estimation accounts for this endogeneity using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The results provide evidence that household formation plays a significant role in maintaining consumption levels. Without the opportunity to live with others, the welfare gap measured by the difference between per adult equivalent consumption levels of dependent and independent livers would be even larger. These findings suggest that co-residing with others effectively supplements social security, pensions, and private savings and helps the elderly to smooth consumption in old age.

Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns?

While the literature concerned with the predictability of stock returns is huge, surprisingly little is known when it comes to role of the choice of estimator of the predictive regression. Ideally, the choice of estimator should be rooted in the salient features of the data. In case of predictive regressions of returns there are at least three such features; (i) returns are heteroskedastic, (ii) predictors are persistent, and (iii) regression errors are correlated with predictor innovations. In this paper we examine if the accounting of these features in the estimation process has any bearing on our ability to forecast future returns. The results suggest that it does.

The value of executive director share ownership and discretionary accruals

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relation between the value of executive director share ownership and discretionary accruals.

Design/methodology/approach – This study uses a dataset of 1,173 firm-year observations drawn from 188 Australian listed companies for the period 2000-2006. The analysis is based on multivariate regression analysis and ordinary least square models were used to investigate the relation between the value of managerial ownership and discretionary accruals. The issue of potential endogeneity is addressed by using a simultaneous equation system.

Findings – A negative relation is found between value of managerial share ownership and discretionary accruals at lower levels of value of ownership, which is consistent with the theorised incentive alignment that as the managers commit more resources to their firms, stakeholders impose less contractual constraints specified in terms of accounting numbers and managers make lower accrual adjustments. After a certain level of value of ownership is attained, a positive relations seen, consistent with increased discretionary accrual adjustments associated with stakeholders anticipating managerial entrenchment. Also, it is found that these results are driven by firms with income increasing, as opposed to income decreasing, discretionary accruals.

Practical implications – Shares and options are forming an increasing proportion of executive remuneration that continues to be the subject of much debate amongst regulators and in the media. Showing that the value of share ownership may be an effective internal governance mechanism to help align incentives adds to the debate and has policy implications.

Originality/value – The paper's primary contribution is finding that the value (as opposed to proportion) of share ownership, typically representing a sizeable proportion of managers' undiversified wealth, is a potentially direct driver of theorised incentive alignment and entrenchment effects associated with share ownership.

Oil price uncertainty and sovereign risk: evidence from Asian economies

In this paper, we test whether oil price uncertainty predicts credit default swap (CDS) returns for eight Asian countries. We use the Westerlund and Narayan, 2011 and Westerlund and Narayan, 2012 predictability test that accounts for any persistence in and endogeneity of the predictor variable. The estimator also accounts for any heteroskedasticity in the regression model. In-sample evidence reveals that oil price uncertainty predicts CDS returns for three Asian countries, whereas out-of-sample evidence suggests that oil price uncertainty predicts CDS returns for six countries.

Do oil prices predict economic growth? New global evidence

In this paper, we test whether oil price predicts economic growth for 28 developed and 17 developing countries. We use predictability tests that account for the key features of the data, namely, persistency, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity. Our analysis considers a large number of countries, shows evidence of more out-of-sample predictability with nominal than real oil prices, finds in-sample predictability to be independent of the use of nominal and real prices, and reveals greater evidence of predictability for developed countries.

Financial development, shocks, and growth volatility

This paper uses spectral theory to develop the following two testable hypotheses in a unified framework for the predictions of business-cycle and endogenous growth models: (i) financial development affects only business-cycle volatility; and (ii) shocks affect both business-cycle volatility and long-run volatility of GDP growth. In other words, volatility caused by shocks is more persistent than that caused by financial underdevelopment. We decompose the business-cycle and long-run volatility by the spectral method and then test the hypotheses at the cross-country level. Empirical evidence provides support for both hypotheses. Higher private credit, a bank-based measure of financial development, dampens business-cycle volatility but not long-run volatility. Volatility of shocks, as measured by the volatility of changes in the terms of trade, magnifies both business-cycle and long-run volatility. The results are robust to accounting for endogeneity, a market-based measure of financial development, and an alternative method of volatility decomposition.

Can analyst coverage reduce the incidence of fraud? Evidence from China

We investigate the impact of security analyst coverage on the incidence of corporate financial fraud in China. After controlling for the endogeneity between analyst following and fraud, we find that financial analyst coverage cannot significantly influence the incidence of fraud. The empirical findings suggest that financial analysts do not serve as external monitors to managers and large shareholders in China. © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

Development aid and growth in transition countries

Empirical studies normally analyze diverse and heterogeneous groups of countries, producing very mixed evidence on the effectiveness of development aid in promoting growth. We focus on whether aid promotes economic growth in transitional economies. We find that aid, on average, has had a positive impact on growth for this specific group of countries. This result is robust to samples, estimators, and the use of alternate instruments to address endogeneity. Aid effectiveness is not conditional on good policy and there is little evidence of non-linear growth effects arising from aid.

Age at migration, language proficiency, and socioeconomic outcomes: evidence from Australia

This study estimates the causal effects of language proficiency on the economic and social integration of Australian immigrants. Identifying the effects of languages on socioeconomic outcomes is inherently difficult owing to the endogeneity of language skills. Using the phenomenon that younger children learn languages more easily than older children, we construct an instrumental variable for language proficiency. To achieve this, we consider the age at arrival of immigrants who came as children from Anglophone and non-Anglophone countries. We find a significant positive effect of English proficiency on wages and promotions among adults who immigrated to Australia as children. Higher levels of English proficiency are associated with increased risk-taking, more smoking, and more exercise for men, but have considerable health benefits for women. English language proficiency has a significant influence on partner choice and a number of social outcomes, as well as on children's outcomes, including their levels of academic achievement. The results are robust to alternative specifications, including accounting for between-sibling differences and alternative measures of English skills.

Testing for stock return predictability in a large Chinese panel

This paper proposes a simple panel data test for stock return predictability that is flexible enough to accommodate three key salient features of the data, namely, predictor persistency and endogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence. Using a large panel of Chinese stock market data comprising more than one million observations, we show that most financial and macroeconomic predictors are in fact able to predict returns. We also show how the extent of the predictability varies across industries and firm sizes.