Is carbon emissions trading profitable?

The European Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme introduced in 2005 has led to both spot and futures market trading of carbon emissions. However, despite seven years of trading, we have no knowledge on how profitable carbon emissions trading is. In this paper, we first test whether carbon forward returns predict carbon spot returns. We find strong evidence on both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability. Based on this evidence, we forecast carbon spot returns using both carbon forward returns and a constant. We consider a mean-variance investor and a CRRA investor, and show that they have higher utility and can make more statistically significant profits by following forecasts generated from the forward returns model than from a constant returns model.

Estimating the increasing cost of commercial buildings in Australia due to greenhouse emissions trading

The ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by most industrial nations will result in an international greenhouse emissions trading market by or before 2008. Calculating the quantity of embodied energy in commercial buildings has therefore taken on added significance because it is in the creation of energy that most greenhouse gas that causes global warming is released. For energy efficient commercial buildings in Australia, the embodied energy can typically represent between 10 and 20 years of operational energy. When greenhouse emissions trading is introduced in Australia the cost of energy will rise significantly, particularly electricity which relies primarily on burning fossil fuels for generation. This will affect not only the operating energy costs of buildings (light, power & heating/cooling) but also the cost of building materials and construction. Early estimates of the potential cost of future greenhouse emission permits in Australia vary between $IO/tonne to $180Itonne. This cost would be imposed primarily on the producers of energy and passed on by them to consumers via higher energy costs. For a typical commercial building this could lead to an increase in the total procurement cost of buildings of up to 20% due to the energy embodied during the construction or refurbishment of the building. To assist in evaluating these potential cost increases McKean & Park, Sinclair Knight Merz and Deakin University have developed a web-based Carbon Cost Calculator for commercial buildings.

Carbon rights as new property: the benefits of statutory verification

This paper examines the different ways in which carbon rights have been verified as property interests. A carbon right is a new and unique form of land interest that confers upon the holder a right to the incorporeal benefit of carbon sequestration on a piece of forested land. Carbon sequestration refers to the absorption from the atmosphere of carbon dioxide by vegetation and soils and the storage of carbon in vegetation and soils. Innovative legislation has been introduced in each state seeking to separate the incorporeal benefit of carbon sequestration from the natural rights flowing from land ownership. The fragmentation of land ownership in this way is a constituent of broader climate change strategies and is particularly important for an Australian emissions trading scheme where carbon rights will acquire value as tradable offsets. This paper will explore the different legislative responses of each state to the proprietary characterisation of the carbon right as a land interest. It will argue that verifying the carbon right as a new statutory property interest, in line with the approach set out in the Carbon Rights Act 2003 (WA), is preferable to aligning it with preconceived categories of common law servitude. By articulating the  carbon right as a new form of statutory interest, unique in status and form, its sui generis character is more accurately reflected. Further, statutory validation of the carbon right as a new land interest is more efficient as legislative rules are more visible and therefore come to the attention of other market participants more quickly and at a lower cost without the burden and complexity associated with expressing the right through the prism of pre-conceived and non-responsive common law forms.

The core of the global warming problem: energy

From the thermodynamic point of view, the global warming problem is an ''energy balance'' problem. The heat (energy) accumulation in the earth and its atmosphere is the cause of the global warming. This accumulation is mainly due to the imbalance of (solar) energy reaching and the energy leaving the earth, caused by ''greenhouse effect'' in which the CO₂ and other greenhouse gases play a critical role; so that balance of the energy entering and leaving the earth should be the key to solve the problem. Currently in the battle of tackling the global warming, we mainly focus on the development of CO₂-related measures, i.e., emission reduction, CO₂ sequestration, and CO₂ recycle technologies. It is right in technical aspect, because they are attempting thinner the CO₂ ''blanket'' around the earth. However, ''Energy'' that is the core of the problem has been overlooked, at least in management/policy aspect. This paper is proposing an ''Energy Credit'' i.e., the energy measure concept as an alternative to the ''CO₂ credit'' that is currently in place in the proposed emission trading scheme. The proposed energy credit concept has the advantages such as covering broad activities related to the global warming and not just direct emissions. Three examples are given in the paper to demonstrate the concept of the energy measure and its advantages over the CO₂ credit concept.