Tourism, dutch disease and welfare in an open dynamic economy

This paper examines the effects of an expansion in tourism on capital accumulation, sectoral output and resident welfare in an open economy with an externality in the traded good sector. An expansion of tourism increases the relative price of the nontraded good, improves the tertiary terms of trade and hence yields a gain in revenue. However, this increase in the relative price of nontraded goods results in a lowering of the demand for capital used in the traded sector. The subsequent de-industrialization in the traded good sector may lower resident welfare. This result is supported by numerical simulations.

A dynamic ratio-based model for signalling corporate collapse

The recognition of behavioural elements in finance has caused major shifts in the analytic framework pertaining to ratio-based modeling of corporate collapse. The modeling approach so far has been based on the classical rational theory in behavioural economics, which assumes that the financial ratios (i.e., the predictors of collapse) are static over time. The paper argues that, in the absence of rational economic theory, a static model is flawed, and that a suitable model instead is one that reflects the heuristic behavioural framework, which is what characterises behavioural attributes of company directors and in turn influences the accounting numbers used in calculating the financial ratios. This calls for a dynamic model: dynamic in the sense that it does not rely on a coherent assortment of financial ratios for signaling corporate collapse over multiple time periods. This paper provides empirical evidence, using a data set of Australian publicly listed companies, to demonstrate that a dynamic model consistently outperforms its static counterpart in signaling the event of collapse. On average, the overall predictive power of the dynamic model is 86.83% compared to an average overall predictive power of 69.35% for the static model.

Measurement of the economic impact of visual impairment from age-related macular degeneration in Australia

The purpose of this report was to: (i) outline the potential value of health economic studies into age-related macular degeneration (AMD); (ii) provide an overview of health economic studies pertinent to AMD; and (iii) outline the basic frame work of cost-of-illness studies (a useful first step in applying economic methods). The detection and management of sensory loss in the elderly plays a key role in the Australian Government's Healthy Ageing Strategy. Age-related macular degeneration is currently the leading cause of blindness in elderly Australians. Although a large proportion of AMD cases remain untreatable, the introduction of photo­dynamic therapy provides a relatively expensive and possibly cost-effective innovation for others. Antioxidant therapy has also been proven effective in reducing progression of early to late disease. The discipline of economics can contribute to an understanding of AMD prevention and treatment through: (i) describing the current burden of disease; (ii) predicting the changes in the burden of disease over time, and (iii) evaluating the efficiency of different interventions. Cost-of-illness studies have been performed in many fields of medicine. Little work, however, has been done on describing the economic impact from AMD. A number of different economic evaluation methods can be used in judging the efficiency of possible interventions to reduce the disease burden of AMD. Although complementary in nature, each has specific uses and limitations. Studies of the economic impact of eye diseases are both feasible and necessary for informed health care decision-making.

Empirical applications of economic principles in producer price index analysis

The research analyses economic linkages of producer price indices of the construction industry in Australia and relationships between construction and house prices. A range of econometric techniques are applied to analyse construction and house prices. The economic equilibrium and dynamic relationships among regional markets are investigated based on producer price index analysis.

Dynamic interactions in models with Kaleckian lags

Provides a careful assessment of previous research on lags in economic models. Several interesting lines of research are opened up. Chief among them is the analysis of bubbles and their bursting in the financial components of economic models.

Multi-market industrial organizational economic models for the internationalization process by small and medium enterprise construction design service firms

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are critical to strategic initiatives in an economy; however, their contribution to foreign trade is not as significant. SMEs are one of the principal driving forces in economic development. One of the greatest challenges is the internationalization process for longevity rather than seeing the process as initial market entry. The internationalization process research has typically involved four key constructs: market selection, decision to enter, entry modes and factors affecting entry modes. Past research has focused on large manufacturing firms. The export of architectural, engineering and construction (AEC) firms has undergone growth, yet there is still significant opportunity for further growth. The majority of AEC firms are SMEs. Notwithstanding assistance provided through international trade missions, organized export firm support networks and information packages by a burgeoning number of government agencies, there are still perceived barriers to market entry and long-term economic sustainability for SMEs. There are a number of problems faced by SMEs acting in foreign trade. This investigation explores the successful initial internationalization process constructs and identifies unique project-oriented sector characteristics. The study identified similarities and differences between two firms that have been exporting to various localities, including Eastern Europe, Africa, Middle East, UK, Asia and South America, for more than two decades. The similarities and differences were identified within eight major constructs: purpose, firm type, market image and design philosophy, entry mode strategy, institutional arrangement, factors affecting mode of entry, market selection and firm strategy in relation to project selection. The primary reasons for internationalization were associated with the firms' motivations related to growth and financial viability. This article discusses the various internationalization processes and strategies intrinsic to each case study and establishes a detailed set of empirical observations from which to develop further a grounded theoretical model of reflexive capability for the internationalization process. This study contributes to the body of knowledge around the SME AEC design service firm's internationalization process, as a dynamic, evolving and continuously adaptable construct for project-based sectors.

Understanding the economic dynamics behind growth-inequality relationships

In this paper, a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model of growth–inequality relationships, with missing credit markets, knowledge spillover and self-employed agents, is calibrated to New Zealand data. The model explains how two distinct policy shocks involving redistribution and immigration imply, subsequently, two completely opposite outcomes. Agents’ inability to borrow aggravates a negative macroeconomic effect of heterogeneity on growth. Redistribution mitigates that effect but creates microeconomic disincentives on saving and work-effort. Consequently, immigration shocks that perturb variance of efficiency induce a negative growth–inequality relationship, while redistribution shocks, in New Zealand’s case, produce larger fluctuations in incentives than in macro benefits, implying a positive growth–inequality relationship.

Fault-tolerant scheduling with dynamic number of replicas in heterogeneous systems

In the existing studies on fault-tolerant scheduling, the active replication schema makes use of ε + 1 replicas for each task to tolerate ε failures. However, in this paper, we show that it does not always lead to a higher reliability with more replicas. Besides, the more replicas implies more resource consumption and higher economic cost. To address this problem, with the target to satisfy the user’s reliability requirement with minimum resources, this paper proposes a new fault tolerant scheduling algorithm: MaxRe. In the algorithm, we incorporate the reliability analysis into the active replication schema and the theoretical analysis and experiments prove that the MaxRe algorithm’s schedule can certainly satisfy user’s reliability requirements. And the MaxRe scheduling algorithm can achieve the corresponding reliability with at most 70% fewer resources than the FTSA algorithm.

A dynamic model of tourism, employment and welfare: the case of Hong Kong

The present paper uses a dynamic open-economy model with wage indexation to examine the impact of tourism on employment and welfare. Both short-run and long-run situations are analysed. It is well known that tourism converts non-traded goods into tradable goods. An increase in the demand for a non-traded good raises its relative price, which results in an expansion of the non-traded sector at the expense of the traded goods sector. This output shift raises labour employment in the short run. However, in the long run, the higher relative price leads to higher wages, resulting in a negative impact on labour employment. If the output effect is dominant, the expansion in tourism raises employment and welfare. However, under realistic conditions tourism may lower both labour employment and welfare due to rising costs. These results are demonstrated by simulating a dynamic model for the case of Hong Kong.

DeepCare: a deep dynamic memory model for predictive medicine

Personalized predictive medicine necessitates the modeling of patient illness and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies. Healthcare observations, recorded in electronic medical records, are episodic and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, an end-to-end deep dynamic neural network that reads medical records, stores previous illness history, infers current illness states and predicts future medical outcomes. At the data level, DeepCare represents care episodes as vectors in space, models patient health state trajectories through explicit memory of historical records. Built on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), DeepCare introduces time parameterizations to handle irregular timed events by moderating the forgetting and consolidation of memory cells. DeepCare also incorporates medical interventions that change the course of illness and shape future medical risk. Moving up to the health state level, historical and present health states are then aggregated through multiscale temporal pooling, before passing through a neural network that estimates future outcomes. We demonstrate the efficacy of DeepCare for disease progression modeling, intervention recommendation, and future risk prediction. On two important cohorts with heavy social and economic burden -- diabetes and mental health -- the results show improved modeling and risk prediction accuracy.

Economic growth and carbon emissions

In this paper, we investigate the dynamic relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for 181 countries. We propose a new approach based on the cross-correlation estimates to understand how economic growth and CO2 emissions are related. Our proposal is that if there is a positive cross-correlation between the current level of income and the past level of CO2 emissions and a negative cross-correlation between the current level of income and the future CO2 emissions, then CO2 emissions will decline with an increase in income over time, consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. Our main findings can be summarized as follows. First, for 21 out of 181 countries (12%), there is clear evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis. Second, we ask whether a rise in income reduces emissions in the future. We find that for 49 countries (27%), income growth will reduce emissions in the future.