Decision making to support an integrated infrastructure supply chain industrial ecological approach within public private partnerships

Supply chains are complex adaptive systems for which final performance depends upon numerous interdependent decisions made by numerous firms which synthesise inputs from various resources systems.  The dynamic interdependent behaviour of social, economic, material and informational resource systems within eco-industrial settings that support the built environment life cycle supply chains can be studied at the supply chain level.  The impact of megaprojects is significant and holds promise to explore the impact of decisions on various systems as it combines project and system boundaries.  Megaoprojects considered as major events within systems can produce critical revolutionary impacts on the systems within which they are embedded.  The decisions that are made on megaprojects are central to risk management.  typically major infrastructure projects are procured through a form of public private partnership (PPP).  The core principle of PPP is value for money which refers to the best available outcome attempting to take account of all benefits, costs and risks over the whole life of the procurement.  In this paper the focus is on Australia where there has been considerable acitivity in the use of PPPs.  With recent national infrastucture packages proposed to stimulate the economy due to the global financial crisis, decision modelling on risks is a revelant and critical matter not only in practice but also in the research community.  PPPs encourage the whole-of-lifecycle approach in the procurement and management of public sector assets by transparently recognising the costs and risks associated with the whole life of the required service or facility, thus integrated whole of life supply chains can be considered.  By creating a single point of responsibility for an entire project from inception through operation, a strong incentive is created for thinking about the effects that a design or construction decision will have on the effectiveness and efficiency of managing and maintaining a facility during its operational life.  The decision to procure holistic supply chains becomes a much more viable commercial reality in the PPP environment than previously considered in the usual commercial construction spot transactional approach.  These types of decisions tend to be imprecise, approximate and complex requireing justification and reasoning logic rather than the classical 'truth' logic.  The purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretical decision framework which combines interdependency and multi-values logic for supply chain procurement modelling.

Integrated modelling of cost-effective siting and operation of flow-control infrastructure for river ecosystem conservation

Wetland and floodplain ecosystems along many regulated rivers are highly stressed, primarily due to a lack of environmental flows of appropriate magnitude, frequency, duration, and timing to support ecological functions. In the absence of increased environmental flows, the ecological health of river ecosystems can be enhanced by the operation of existing and new flow-control infrastructure (weirs and regulators) to return more natural environmental flow regimes to specific areas. However, determining the optimal investment and operation strategies over time is a complex task due to several factors including the multiple environmental values attached to wetlands, spatial and temporal heterogeneity and dependencies, nonlinearity, and time-dependent decisions. This makes for a very large number of decision variables over a long planning horizon. The focus of this paper is the development of a nonlinear integer programming model that accommodates these complexities. The mathematical objective aims to return the natural flow regime of key components of river ecosystems in terms of flood timing, flood duration, and interflood period. We applied a 2-stage recursive heuristic using tabu search to solve the model and tested it on the entire South Australian River Murray floodplain. We conclude that modern meta-heuristics can be used to solve the very complex nonlinear problems with spatial and temporal dependencies typical of environmental flow allocation in regulated river ecosystems. The model has been used to inform the investment in, and operation of, flow-control infrastructure in the South Australian River Murray.

Use of anthropogenic sea floor structures by Australian fur seals: potential positive ecological impacts of marine industrial development?

Human-induced changes to habitats can have deleterious effects on many species that occupy them. However, some species can adapt and even benefit from such modifications. Artificial reefs have long been used to provide habitat for invertebrate communities and promote local fish populations. With the increasing demand for energy resources within ocean systems, there has been an expansion of infrastructure in near-shore benthic environments which function as de facto artificial reefs. Little is known of their use by marine mammals. In this study, the influence of anthropogenic sea floor structures (pipelines, cable routes, wells and shipwrecks) on the foraging locations of 36 adult female Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) was investigated. For 9 (25%) of the individuals, distance to anthropogenic sea floor structures was the most important factor in determining the location of intensive foraging activity. Whereas the influence of anthropogenic sea floor structures on foraging locations was not related to age and mass, it was positively related to flipper length/standard length (a factor which can affect manoeuvrability). A total of 26 (72%) individuals tracked with GPS were recorded spending time in the vicinity of structures (from <1% to >75% of the foraging trip duration) with pipelines and cable routes being the most frequented. No relationships were found between the amount of time spent frequenting anthropogenic structures and individual characteristics. More than a third (35%) of animals foraging near anthropogenic sea floor structures visited more than one type of structure. These results further highlight potentially beneficial ecological outcomes of marine industrial development.