Bayesian classification of catchments using spatial data: a first step to improved modelling of catchment effects on stream ecological condition

A major challenge facing freshwater ecologists and managers is the development of models that link stream ecological condition to catchment scale effects, such as land use. Previous attempts to make such models have followed two general approaches. The bottom-up approach employs mechanistic models, which can quickly become too complex to be useful. The top-down approach employs empirical models derived from large data sets, and has often suffered from large amounts of unexplained variation in stream condition.

We believe that the lack of success of both modelling approaches may be at least partly explained by scientists considering too wide a breadth of catchment type. Thus, we believe that by stratifying large sets of catchments into groups of similar types prior to modelling, both types of models may be improved. This paper describes preliminary work using a Bayesian classification software package, ‘Autoclass’ (Cheeseman and Stutz 1996) to create classes of catchments within the Murray Darling Basin based on physiographic data.

Autoclass uses a model-based classification method that employs finite mixture modelling and trades off model fit versus complexity, leading to a parsimonious solution. The software provides information on the posterior probability that the classification is ‘correct’ and also probabilities for alternative classifications. The importance of each attribute in defining the individual classes is calculated and presented, assisting description of the classes. Each case is ‘assigned’ to a class based on membership probability, but the probability of membership of other classes is also provided. This feature deals very well with cases that do not fit neatly into a larger class. Lastly, Autoclass requires the user to specify the measurement error of continuous variables.

Catchments were derived from the Australian digital elevation model. Physiographic data werederived from national spatial data sets. There was very little information on measurement errors for the spatial data, and so a conservative error of 5% of data range was adopted for all continuous attributes. The incorporation of uncertainty into spatial data sets remains a research challenge.

The results of the classification were very encouraging. The software found nine classes of catchments in the Murray Darling Basin. The classes grouped together geographically, and followed altitude and latitude gradients, despite the fact that these variables were not included in the classification. Descriptions of the classes reveal very different physiographic environments, ranging from dry and flat catchments (i.e. lowlands), through to wet and hilly catchments (i.e. mountainous areas). Rainfall and slope were two important discriminators between classes. These two attributes, in particular, will affect the ways in which the stream interacts with the catchment, and can thus be expected to modify the effects of land use change on ecological condition. Thus, realistic models of the effects of land use change on streams would differ between the different types of catchments, and sound management practices will differ.

A small number of catchments were assigned to their primary class with relatively low probability. These catchments lie on the boundaries of groups of catchments, with the second most likely class being an adjacent group. The locations of these ‘uncertain’ catchments show that the Bayesian classification dealt well with cases that do not fit neatly into larger classes.

Although the results are intuitive, we cannot yet assess whether the classifications described in this paper would assist the modelling of catchment scale effects on stream ecological condition. It is most likely that catchment classification and modelling will be an iterative process, where the needs of the model are used to guide classification, and the results of classifications used to suggest further refinements to models.

Urban to forest gradients: suitability for hollow bearing trees and implications for obligate hollow nesters

 Resource availability is a limiting factor influencing the distribution and composition of faunal communities. Globally, hollow bearing trees are a resource required by wildlife at all trophic levels, and are used for a diverse range of ecological functions. In the northern hemisphere avian species act as primary hollow excavators, whereas the southern hemisphere must rely on complex interactions between stochastic events, and eventual decay. Hollow formation is therefore a slow process in the southern hemisphere. In contrast, hollow loss is quite rapid and influenced greatly by anthropogenic impacts.To identify the ecological characteristics driving hollows over an urban to forest gradient as a resource for the powerful owl (Ninox strenua) and its prey we used presence-only modelling. The potential for an area to support tree hollows suitable for powerful owls and their prey was linked to the density of ephemeral rivers, land cover, tree cover and distance from riparian vegetation. The potential for large hollows throughout the landscape, suitable for the powerful owl, was also influenced by density of permanent rivers. Potential habitat for tree hollows, capable of supporting powerful owls and their prey was greatest in forested environments, declining with increased urbanization. However the urban region still supported some smaller tree hollows suitable for arboreal marsupials. Managing for urban dwelling species, is not as simple as retaining old hollow producing trees or providing alternate nesting structures. We also need to mitigate increased mortality associated with built environments (e.g. electrocution, collisions).

Variation in the impact of non-native seaweeds along gradients of habitat degradation: a meta-analysis and an experimental test

Biological invasions are acknowledged among the main drivers of global changes in biodiversity. Despite compelling evidence of species interactions being strongly regulated by environmental conditions, there is a dearth of studies investi-gating how the effects of non-native species vary among areas exposed to different anthropogenic pressures. Focusing on marine macroalgae, we performed a meta-analysis to test whether and how the direction and magnitude of their effects on resident communities and species varies in relation to cumulative anthropogenic impact levels. The relationship between human impact levels and non-native species impact intensity emerged only for a reduced subset of the response variables examined. Yet, there was a trend for the effects of non-native species on community biomass and abundance and on species abundance to become less negative at heavily impacted sites. By contrast, the magnitude of negative effects of seaweed on community evenness tended to increase with human impact levels. The hypothesis of decreasing severity of invader’ impacts along a gradient of habitat degradation was also tested experimentally at a regional scale by comparing the effects of the removal of non-native alga,
Caulerpa cylindracea, on resident assemblages among rocky reefs exposed to different anthropogenic pressures. Assemblages at urban and pristine site did not differ when invaded, but did so when C. cylindracea was removed. Our results suggest that, despite the generally weak relationship between human impacts levels and non-native species impacts, more negative impacts can be expected in less stressful environments (i.e. less degraded or pristine sites), where competitive interactions are presumably the driving force structuring resident communities. Implementing strategies for controlling the establishment of non-native seaweeds should be, thus, considered a priority for preserving biodiversity in relatively pristine areas. On the other hand, control of invaders at degraded sites could be warranted to lessen their role as propagule sources

An ecological study of the relationship between social and environmental determinants of obesity

There is growing concern with the increasing prevalence of obesity in industrialised countries, a trend that is more apparent in the poor than in the rich. In an ecological study, the relationship between an area measure of socioeconomic status (SES) and the density of fast-food outlets was examined as one possible explanation for the phenomenon. It was found that there was a dose-response between SES and the density of fast-food outlets, with people living in areas from the poorest SES category having 2.5 times the exposure to outlets than people in the wealthiest category. The findings are discussed.

Land use, water quality and ecological responses in Lake Colac – trends from Australia

Purpose - Recently, Colac Otway Shire in Australia released its management plan for Lake Colac, claiming over-enrichment of the lake with nutrients and degraded water quality. This paper aims to investigate these claims by establishing a correlation between key water and ecological indicators and land uses.

Design/methodology/approach - Examines the correlation between impairment and stressors in Lake Colac. This was achieved by identifying the likely sources of pollutants into Lake Colac; identifying any existing monitoring program; and characterizing the water and sediment inputs. The likely impacts of increased nutrients and sediment levels on indigenous flora and fauna were also examined. The use of meiofauna (very small benthic metazoan animals) was investigated as an indicator of degraded sites. Plankton diversity as a measure of water health was also assessed.

Findings - Water quality in Lake Colac was found to vary both temporally and spatially, and exhibited low attainment against acceptable trigger values/objectives. At current levels the lake can be classified as poorly degraded. Likely sources of pollution were identified to be related to land uses in the catchments. The biota of the lake, investigated at four study sites, yielded a sparse, benthic macrofaunal assemblage that was dominated by oligochaetes. In contrast, an abundant and taxonomically diverse meiofaunal assemblage was noted. Future meiofaunal analyses are likely to resolve suitable biotic indicator species of free-living nematodes in response to land use and waterway threats specified in the study. Originality value - This work will provide a better understanding of integrated environmental systems to enable development of best management practices, thus transforming the way the land and water are used in the future. Following the present work, other key water and ecological indicators (increased dispersion and dominance of biological species) at five additional sites were studied. Alternative management options for the effluent generated at Colac Sewage Treatment Plant and possible ecological effects of each option were also evaluated. More recently, a sediment characterization study was also carried out at sensitive sites representative of locations where build up of sediments and algae outbreaks are reported. This will enable classification of sediment and evaluation of dredging options.

Outdoor education and bush adventure therapy: A social-ecological approach to health and wellbeing.

Together, outdoor education and bush adventure therapy can be seen to constitute a population-wide health intervention strategy. Whether in educational or therapeutic settings, the intentional use of contact with nature, small groups, and adventure provides a unique approach in the promotion of health and wellbeing for the general population, and for individuals with identified health vulnerabilities. This paper explicitly emphasises human and social health, however, an integral assumption is that a healthy and sustainable environment is dependent on healthy human relationships with nature. We invite outdoor educators and bush adventure therapy practitioners to examine the proposition that healthy interactions with nature can create a unique stream of socio-ecological interventions. A spectrum of outdoor adventure programs is provided, allowing outdoor educators and bush adventure therapy practitioners to locate their work according to program context and aims, and participant aims and needs.

Ecological attributes of strategic land acquisitions for addition to Victoria's public protected area estate : 2004-2005

The development of a comprehensive, adequate and representative reserve system is the key objective of the National Reserve System, and is supported by all Australian States and Territories. In Victoria, the purchase of private land for incorporation into the parks and reserves system assists in the protection of some of the State’s most endangered ecosystems. This article outlines the ecological attributes of private land purchased for addition to the Victorian public protected area system between 2004 and 2005.

Human health, well-being and global ecological scenarios

This article categorizes four kinds of adverse effects to human health caused by ecosystem change: direct, mediated, modulated, and systems failure. The effects are categorized on their scale, complexity, and lag-time. Some but not all of these can be classified as resulting from reduced ecosystem services. The articles also explores the impacts that different socioeconomic–ecologic scenarios are likely to have on human health and how changes to human health may, in turn, influence the unfolding of four different plausible future scenarios. We provide examples to show that our categorization is a useful taxonomy for understanding the complex relationships between ecosystems and human well-being and for predicting how future ecosystem changes may affect human health.

Monitoring ecological impacts: concepts and practice in flowing waters

Monitoring Ecological Impacts provides the tools needed to design  assessment programs that can reliably monitor, detect and allow  management of human impacts on the natural environment. The procedures described are well-grounded in inferential logic. Step-by-step guidelines and flow diagrams provide clear and useable protocols, which are applicable to real situations.

Understanding physical activity environmental correlates : increased specificity for ecological models

Ecological models are now used to understand the complex array of factors that influence physical activity, resulting in a greater emphasis on environmental correlates. This selective review examines whether the predictive capacity of these models could be improved if behavior-specific measures of the environment were used to predict context-specific behaviors.

Porous titanium with porosity gradients for biomedical applications

Highly porous titanium and titanium alloys with an open cell structure are promising implant materials due to their low elastic modulus, excellent bioactivity, biocompatibility and the ability for bone regeneration. However, the mechanical strength of the porous titanium decreases dramatically with increasing porosity, which is a prerequisite for the ingrowth of new bone tissues and vascularization. In the present study, porous titanium with porosity gradients, i.e. solid core with highly porous outer shell was successfully fabricated using a powder metallurgy approach. Satisfactory mechanical properties derived from the solid core and osseointegration capacity derived from the outer shell can be achieved simultaneously through the design of the porosity gradients of the porous titanium. The outer shell of porous titanium exhibited a porous architecture very close to
that of natural bone, i.e. a porosity of 70% and pore size distribution in the range of 200 - 500 μm. The peak stress and the elastic modulus of the porous titanium with a porosity gradient (an overall porosity 63%) under compression were approximately 152 MPa and 4 GPa, respectively. These
properties are very close to those of natural bone. For comparison, porous titanium with a uniform porosity of 63% was also prepared and haracterised in the present study. The peak stress and the elastic modulus were 109 MPa and 4 GPa, respectively. The topography of the porous titanium
affected the mechanical properties significantly.

Ecological and human dimensions of management of feral horses in Australia: a review

In Australia, the management of feral horse populations is a contentious issue, owing to their pluralistic status as an introduced pest and a national icon. In this review, we synthesise current knowledge of the ecological effects of feral horses and the human dimensions of feral horse management, using case studies from around the world to illustrate contentious and successful management practices. We highlight gaps in the literature and suggest that more peer-reviewed research would be beneficial in reducing the current public controversy surrounding management of feral horses.

Don't rain on my parade : barriers to ecological tourism

This research investigates the perceived risks and perceptions of visitor experiences associated with visitation to an ecological tourist destination. The research identified a significant consumption barrier which appeared to impact significantly and reflect juxtapositions with regard to tourists’ perceived (reflective) and lived (responsive) experiences with the tourist attraction. The conflicting reports of the “over-commercialisation” of the attraction and the enjoyment of the natural experience recorded at varying recollection periods, provided valuable insight into tourist consumption barriers to the establishment of relational bonds between tourists and ecological tourist attractions.