Modeling the relationship between budget deficits, money supply and inflation in Fiji

For Fiji, which has been suffering persistent deficits since independence, determining the relationships between inflation, budget deficits, money supply, output, and import prices is essential. We find that inflation, deficits and money supply are cointegrated when inflation is the endogenous variable, and the long-run elasticities confirm that money supply and deficits induce inflation. While there is a short-run, unidirectional causality running from money supply to inflation and a bi-directional causality between money supply and budget deficits, in the long run both money supply and deficits ?Granger-cause? inflation.

Revealing Australia’s Underground Economy

This study, using currency demand model, finds Australia’s underground economy to be around 2 to 3 per cent of gross domestic product. We extend the related literature (see, inter alia, Bajada, 1999 and Breusch, 2005) in three novel ways. First, we use Austrian levels of taxes and welfare payments as the minimum levels of taxes and welfare payments. Secondly, we employ the currency demand measurement as in Cagan (1958), i.e., cash and currencies as a proportion of total money supply. Third, we use Cagan’s original assumption regarding equalities of velocities of currencies in both the legal and illegal economies in order to estimate the underground economy.

An empirical investigation of the determinants of Oman's national savings

In this note we examine the determinants of Oman's national savings for the period 1977-2003 using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. We use the ARDL model to estimate the long run and short run determinants of national savings. Our main finding is that the current account, the urbanisation rate and the money supply exert statistically significant impacts on Oman''s national savings in the long run.

Impacts of monetary policies on housing affordability in Australia

Housing affordability has become a major policy issue in many countries across the world since the rapid inflation of house prices. This paper empirically investigates how monetary policies affect housing affordability in Australia from 1998 to 2009. Three primary variables associated with the housing sector and monetary policy, which are money supply, interest rates and house prices, are studied for all eight capital cities in Australia in this research. Shocks of such variables are identified by a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with restrictions that are consistent with economic theoretical framework. Based upon the analysis using the structural decomposition of impulse response on quarterly data, it can be discovered that the monetary policy plays an active role in housing affordability via adjustments of money supply and interest rates during the observed period in Australia. The empirical results from this research may be used for decision makers to determine money supply and interest rates from the perspective of housing affordability.

Low-frequency volatility of yen interest rate swap market in relation to macroeconomic risk

Using ‘low-frequency’ volatility extracted from aggregate volatility shocks in interest rate swap (hereafter, IRS) market, this paper investigates whether Japanese yen IRS volatility can be explained by macroeconomic risks. The analysis suggests that this low-frequency yen IRS volatility has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies (e.g., volatility of consumer price index, industrial production volatility, foreign exchange volatility, slope of the term structure and money supply) with the exception of the unemployment rate, which is negatively related to IRS volatility. This finding is fairly consistent with the argument that the greater the macroeconomic risk the greater is the use of derivative instruments to hedge or speculate. The relationship between the macroeconomic risks and IRS volatility varies slightly across the different swap maturities but is robust to alternative volatility specifications. This linkage between swap market and macroeconomy has practical implications since market makers and hedgers use the swap rate as benchmark for pricing long-term interest rates, corporate bonds and various other securities.

An analysis of Fiji's monetary policy transmission

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the monetary policy transmission mechanism for the Fiji Islands using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model for the period 1975 to 2005.

Design/methodology/approach – The SVAR model investigates how a monetary policy shock – defined as a temporary and exogenous rise in the short-term interest rate – affects real and nominal macro variables; namely real output, prices, exchange rates, and money supply.

Findings – The results suggest that a monetary policy shock statistically significantly reduces output initially, but then output is able to recover to its pre-shock level. A monetary policy shock generates inflationary pressure, leads to an appreciation of the Fijian currency and reduces the demand for money. The paper also analysed the impact of a nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) shock (an appreciation) on real output and found that it leads to a statistically significant negative effect on real output.

Practical implications – The findings of this study should be of direct relevance to the research and policy work undertaken at the Reserve Bank of Fiji.

Originality/value – For a small economy, such as Fiji, where monetary policy is key to sustainable macroeconomic management, this is the first paper that undertakes a dynamic analysis of monetary policy transmission. The paper uses time series data over three decades and builds a structural VAR model, rooted in theory. This paper will be of direct relevance to the Reserve Bank of Fiji. The approach and model proposed will also be useful for applied monetary policy researchers in other developing countries where inflation rate targeting is a key element of the monetary policy setting.

Investigating the housing market fluctuation under an expansionary monetary policy in Australia

This research empirically investigates the impact of monetary policy on the housing market in Australia from 1996 to 2009. Three primary variables associated with the housing sector and monetary policy, including interest rates, money supply and house prices, are estimated by a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model. Depending upon the analysis using the impulse response function, it can be identified that monetary policy significantly affects the housing market in Australia by the adjustments in interest rates and money supply. The empirical results from this study may be useful for policy makers to enact appropriate policies in relation to the infrastructure planning.

The relationship between stock returns and the foreign exchange rate: the ARDL approach

This study employs the ARDL cointegration approach in order to examine the impact
of financial liberalization on the relationships between the exchange rate and share
market performance in China. We discovered that cointegration has existed between the
Shanghai A Share Index and the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar
and Hong Kong dollar since 2005, when the Chinese exchange rate regime became a
flexible, managed, floating system. We found that both the exchange rate and the money
supply influenced stock price, with a positive correlation. We further show that the
money supply increase was largely caused by a huge ‘hot money’ inflow from other
countries in recent years. After local currency appreciation, hot money, followed by
the money supply increase, pushed the market into a high level, based on expectations
regarding the local currency’s further appreciation.

Decision making to support an integrated infrastructure supply chain industrial ecological approach within public private partnerships

Supply chains are complex adaptive systems for which final performance depends upon numerous interdependent decisions made by numerous firms which synthesise inputs from various resources systems.  The dynamic interdependent behaviour of social, economic, material and informational resource systems within eco-industrial settings that support the built environment life cycle supply chains can be studied at the supply chain level.  The impact of megaprojects is significant and holds promise to explore the impact of decisions on various systems as it combines project and system boundaries.  Megaoprojects considered as major events within systems can produce critical revolutionary impacts on the systems within which they are embedded.  The decisions that are made on megaprojects are central to risk management.  typically major infrastructure projects are procured through a form of public private partnership (PPP).  The core principle of PPP is value for money which refers to the best available outcome attempting to take account of all benefits, costs and risks over the whole life of the procurement.  In this paper the focus is on Australia where there has been considerable acitivity in the use of PPPs.  With recent national infrastucture packages proposed to stimulate the economy due to the global financial crisis, decision modelling on risks is a revelant and critical matter not only in practice but also in the research community.  PPPs encourage the whole-of-lifecycle approach in the procurement and management of public sector assets by transparently recognising the costs and risks associated with the whole life of the required service or facility, thus integrated whole of life supply chains can be considered.  By creating a single point of responsibility for an entire project from inception through operation, a strong incentive is created for thinking about the effects that a design or construction decision will have on the effectiveness and efficiency of managing and maintaining a facility during its operational life.  The decision to procure holistic supply chains becomes a much more viable commercial reality in the PPP environment than previously considered in the usual commercial construction spot transactional approach.  These types of decisions tend to be imprecise, approximate and complex requireing justification and reasoning logic rather than the classical 'truth' logic.  The purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretical decision framework which combines interdependency and multi-values logic for supply chain procurement modelling.

Towards the development of a construction supply chain transaction cost economic model for strategic infrastructure procurement evaluation

Australia has adopted public-private partnership (PPP) as a major strategy for procuring infrastructure for decades. However, even though considered to be a mature and sophisticated market, several major
failures have occurred resulting in increasing financial burdens on taxpayers. Failures have typically been traced back to economic evaluation and, in particular, value-for-money across the supply chain
in the original proposal. However, the literature review identified that there was no economic model that evaluated holistically the transaction costs of PPPs across the supply chain. In this paper, theories of transaction cost economics and construction supply chain economics are critiqued and analysed in order to develop a strategic infrastructure procurement evaluation model. The model will offer decision makers with an insight into project life cycle economic outcomes needed to successfully deliver PPPs.

Information sharing in supply chain systems

This chapter considers the importance of information-sharing techniques and strategies employed by industry sectors. Well-developed supply chain management often brings with it improved buyer-supplier communication processes, and we consider the impact of these not only from an intersector point of view, but also from a cross-sector viewpoint. The particular perspectives of the small business within a supply chain structure and of the supply chain customer are examined in detail. We conclude that information sharing is a critical component of business success both inside and outside the supply chain structure. However, while globally and at the large business level, both development and implementation of such technologies have mushroomed, smaller enterprises have tended to be left behind to cope as best they can with multiple pressures to conform.

The tax treatment of employee stock options : generous to a fault

In the 2000 budgets, both the federal and Ontario governments introduced changes to the tax treatment of employee stock options for the explicit purpose of making their tax treatment in Canada similar to or more favourable than that in the United States. The federal budget added a deferral, similar to that currently applicable to options granted by Canadian-controlled private corporations, for up to $100,000 per year of public company stock options. The Ontario budget introduced an exemption from tax for employees involved in research and development on the first $100,000 per year of employee benefits arising on the exercise of qualified stock options or on eligible capital gains arising from the sale of shares acquired by the exercise of eligible stock options. These proposals reflect the apparent acceptance by the two governments that there is a “brain drain” from Canada to the United States of knowledge workers in the “new” economy and that reductions in Canadian taxes should stem this drain. In the author’s view, the tax treatment of employee stock options, even without these changes, is overly generous. Both the federal and provincial proposals ignore the fact that most employee stock options are taxed more favourably in Canada than in the United States in any event. In particular, most employee stock option benefits in Canada are taxed at capital gains tax rates, whereas in the United States most are taxed at full rates. While the US Internal Revenue Code does provide capital gains tax treatment for certain employee stock option benefits, a number of preconditions must be met. Most important, the shares acquired pursuant to the options must be held for a minimum of one year after the option is exercised. In addition, there are monetary limits on the amount of options that qualify for capital gains treatment. In Canada, there are generally no holding period requirements or monetary limits that apply in order for the option holder to benefit from capital gains tax rates. Empirical evidence indicates that the vast majority of employees in the United States exercise their options and immediately sell the shares acquired. These “cashless exercises” do not benefit from capital gains treatment in the United States, whereas similar cashless exercises in Canada generally do. This empirical evidence suggests not only that the 2000 budget proposals are unwarranted, but also that the existing treatment of employee stock options in Canada is already more generous than that in the United States. This article begins with a theoretical “benchmark” for the taxation of employee stock options. The author suggests that employee stock options should be treated in the same manner as other income from employment. In theory, the value of the benefit should be included in income when the option is granted or vests. However, owing to the practical difficulty of valuing employee stock options, the theoretical benchmark proposed is that the value of the benefit (the difference between the fair market value of the shares acquired and the strike price under the option) be taxed when the shares are acquired, and the employer be entitled to a corresponding deduction. The employee stock option rules in Canada and the United States are then compared and contrasted with each other and the benchmark treatment. The article then examines the arguments that have been made for favourable treatment of employee stock options. Included in this critique is a review of the recent empirical work on the Canadian brain drain. Empirical studies suggest that the brain drain—if it exists at all—is small and that, despite what many newspapers and right-wing think-tanks would have us believe, lower taxes in the United States are not the cause. One study, concluding that taxes do have an effect on migration, suggests that even if Canada adopted a tax system identical to that in the United States, the brain drain would be reduced by a mere 10 percent. Indeed, even if Canada eliminated income tax altogether, it would not stop the brain drain. If governments here want to spend money in order to stem the brain drain, they should focus on other areas. For example, Canada produces fewer university graduates in the fields of mathematics, sciences, and engineering than any other G7 country except Italy. The short supply of university graduates in these fields, the apparent loss of top-calibre academics to US
universities, and the consequent lower levels of university research in these areas (an important spawning ground for new ideas in the “new” knowledge-based economy) suggest that Canada may be better served by devoting more resources to its university institutions, particularly in post-graduate programs, rather than continuing the current trend of budget cuts that universities have endured and may further endure if taxes are reduced.
As far as employee stock options are concerned, if Canada does want to look to the United States for guidance on tax reform (which it seems to do with increasing frequency of late), it should adopt the US rules applicable to nonstatutory options, which are close to the proposed benchmark treatment. In the absence of preferential tax treatment, employee stock options would still be included in compensation packages provided that there were sound business reasons for their use. No persuasive evidence has been put forward that the use of stock options, in the absence of tax incentives, is suboptimal. Indeed, the US experience suggests quite the opposite.

Using soft systems methodology to address supply chain management problems

This paper reports an investigation of if, and how, Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) might.be used to facilitate better management of industry supply chains. In two workshops involving supply chain managers from the Textile Clothing and Footwear (TCP) industry and industry facilitators, ways in which SSM techniques might supplement existing Supply Chain Management (SCM) workshop approaches have been explored. Specifically, the placement of SSM techniques within a workshop setting, reactions to the techniques, perceived reasons for using SSM, together with strengths and difficulties encountered, have been examined.