Simulation models of obesity : a review of the literature and implications for research and policy

Simulation models (SMs) combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for examining how the effects of obesity unfold over time and impact population health. SMs can aid in the understanding of the complex interaction of the drivers of diet and activity and their relation to health outcomes. As emphasized in a recently released report of the Institute or Medicine, SMs can be especially useful for considering the potential impact of an array of policies that will be required to tackle the obesity problem. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of existing SMs for obesity. First, a background section introduces the different types of models, explains how models are constructed, shows the utility of SMs and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. Using these typologies, we then briefly review extant obesity SMs. We categorize these models according to their focus: health and economic outcomes, trends in obesity as a function of past trends, physiologically based behavioural models, environmental contributors to obesity and policy interventions. Finally, we suggest directions for future research.

Mother–infant psychotherapy and perinatal psychiatry: current clinical practice and future directions

Objective: To explore trends in the practice of mother-infant psychotherapy among perinatal psychiatry clinicians based in Melbourne.Methods: A cross-sectional survey with a purpose designed self-report questionnaire was used to assess the attitudes and practices of 47 perinatal and infant psychiatry clinicians in their use and understanding of mother-infant psychotherapy.Results: Seventy per cent of clinicians in this field of psychotherapy who responded to the questionnaire subscribe to a psychodynamic model, although cognitive behavioural models are also used. The interventions were mostly used in conjunction with other interventions, would be more accurately described as 'parent-infant psychotherapy', and non-psychiatrists in the area tended to be more likely to be formally trained in psychotherapy, but only 4% were formally trained in specific mother-infant psychotherapy. There was a unanimous request for further clinical training in this area.Conclusions: The emerging field of perinatal psychiatry needs to develop coherent therapeutic models and conduct outcome trials on specific interventions. Specific trainings in these models, in assessment and in diagnostic frameworks are required to enhance clinical efficacy, for research and service development purposes.

The influence of supermarket store attributes on perceived customer satisfaction : an East Asian study

Despite the proliferation of theoretical developments in the area of western consumer behaviour, to date the likelihood of Asian variants to existing consumer behavioural models has not been explored in any detail. Based on prior research in the field of retail attribute testing this empirical study investigates the influence of supermarket store attributes on Chinese (Macau) customer satisfaction moderated by the biographical factors of age and income. The results indicate that the store attributes of distance and speed of check out were significant for age, and that delivery, service and price reductions were significant by income. Total independent variable rankings indicated store location, price and product variety were perceived by Chinese respondents as being the most important store attributes influencing satisfaction.

Mindfulness in forensic mental health : does it have a role?

Treatment and rehabilitation in forensic settings have been largely based on cognitive behavioural models and therapies. In the past decade, “third wave” approaches have developed in cognitive behavioural therapy, strongly influenced by spiritual and contemplative traditions such as Buddhism. Mindfulness is the most analysed and researched of such approaches. In this paper, we ask whether mindfulness is relevant to therapeutic work with offenders in forensic mental health and criminal justice services. We review the known criminogenic and other needs of offender groups and discuss whether the psychological processes affected by mindfulness are relevant to reducing risk, alleviating distress and facilitating coping. We conclude that they are. Finally, we address some of the problems that may arise in implementing mindfulness interventions in forensic settings.

The role of cognitions and beliefs in trichotillomania: a qualitative study using interpretative phenomenological analysis

Trichotillomania (TTM) is characterised by the removal of one's hair, causing hair loss. Phenomenological research on TTM has investigated its associated behavioural and affective factors. Few studies have investigated the possible role of cognitions and beliefs, despite emerging support for cognitive therapies in treating this disorder. This study aimed to explore and describe the cognitions and beliefs that contribute to the onset and maintenance of hairpulling in TTM. Eight women with TTM participated in semi-structured, in-depth interviews to explore their experience of cognitions and beliefs before, during and after typical hairpulling episodes. Interviews were analysed using the qualitative method of Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis. Six superordinate themes of beliefs were identified as important: negative self-beliefs, control beliefs, beliefs about coping, beliefs about negative emotions, permission-giving beliefs, and perfectionism. These preliminary findings suggest that cognitions may play an important role in TTM phenomenology. Future quantitative research on the role of cognitions and beliefs in TTM in larger samples has the potential to advance cognitive-behavioural models and treatments of this poorly understood disorder.

Fear of self and unacceptable thoughts in obsessive-compulsive disorder

Cognitive-behavioural models have linked unacceptable or repugnant thoughts in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) with vulnerable self-themes and fear-of-self concerns. To investigate this notion, Aardema and coworkers recently developed and validated the Fear of Self-Questionnaire (FSQ) in non-clinical samples, finding it had strong internal inconsistency, and good divergent and convergent validity, including strong relationships to obsessional symptoms and with other processes implicated in cognitive models of OCD (e.g., obsessive beliefs and inferential confusion). The current article describes two studies that aim to replicate and extend these findings in clinical OCD and non-clinical samples. Study 1 investigated the psychometric properties of an Italian translation of the FSQ in a non-clinical sample (n=405). Results of confirmatory factor analysis supported the unidimensionality of the scale; the FSQ also showed very good internal consistency and temporal stability. Study 2 investigated the role of fear of self in OCD symptoms, and unacceptable thoughts and repugnant obsessions in particular, using a clinical OCD sample (n=76). As expected, fear of self was a unique, major predictor of unacceptable thoughts independent of negative mood states and obsessive beliefs. Moreover, even when considered with obsessive beliefs, anxiety and depression, the feared self was the only unique predictor of obsessionality, providing support for the notion that self-themes could explain why some intrusions convert into obsessions, whereas others do not. Implications for current cognitive-behavioural models are discussed.

Psychological treatments for trichotillomania: update and future directions

OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to provide an overview of evidence-based psychological treatments for trichotillomania. CONCLUSIONS: Advances in the understanding of the phenomenology of trichotillomania has led to the augmentation of behavioural treatments with dialectical behaviour therapy and acceptance and commitment therapy. Further studies of treatment component efficacy and cognitive behavioural models are required.

Enabling construction innovation : The role of a no-blame culture as a collaboration behavioural driver in project alliances

A no-blame culture is widely accepted as a collaboration driver yet we see surprisingly scant literature on the theoretical underpinnings for the construction and project management context. A no-blame culture in project alliances, as conducted in Australasia, promotes innovative thinking in action. Innovation is dependent upon collaboration and true collaboration is inextricably linked with behavioural drivers. Foremost of these is a culture of openness and willingness to share the pain and gain from experimentation, one that requires that collaborators be protected from the threat of being blamed and held accountable for experimental failure. The Australasian project alliance procurement form has a unique 'no-blame' behavioural contract clause that can result in the type of breakthrough thinking crucial in developing a collaborative culture where innovation can evolve through a process of trial and error. © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

The robustness of the behavioural-intentions battery in services scenarios

The consensus among researchers is that loyalty is a very complex construct (Javalgi & Moberg 1997). Various typologies have been developed to measure the loyalty construct (e.g., Curassi and Kennedy 2002; Hoare 2000; Knox 1998; Zeithaml, Parasuraman & Berry 1996). Zeithaml, Berry & Parasuraman (1996) developed a service loyalty framework comprising 13 items across five dimensions: “loyalty”, “switch”, “pay more”, “external responses”, and “internal responses”. This framework was criticised by Bloemer, de Ruyter & Wetzels (1999) for having conceptual and empirical limitations. Upon re-examination of the same 13 items, they concluded that the loyalty construct comprised only four factors: “word-of-mouth”, “purchase intentions”, “price sensitivity”, and “complaining behaviour”. Questions remain as to the precise dimensionality of the service loyalty construct as proposed by Zeithaml, Parasuraman & Berry (1996), and its stability or robustness generically, i.e., to what extent is there an invariant factor structure across the range of marketing contexts to which the battery may be applied? This paper reports on the testing of the goodness-of-fit of the five and fourfactor models to data collected in a study of consumer reaction to the service supplied by an Australian Internet Service Provider (ISP), through a series of hypothetical scenarios. In addition, comparisons were conducted with the results of exploratory factor analyses of the eight scenarios. The results suggested that factor structures are unstable across the data subsets, thereby limiting the generalisability and utility of the proposed models.

Financial fraud and the use of ratios in corporate collapse prediction models

This paper highlights the prevalence and extent of financial fraud amongst collapsed corporations. In doing so, it examines the recent spectacular corporate collapses of Parmalat in Europe, Enron and WoridCom in the USA and HIH in Australia. A new methodology that provides empirical evidence to the financial fraud claims found in the literature, is then put forward. The proposed methodology argues that if financial fraud was a possibility amongst collapsed corporations, then two premises ought to be observed in the literature on ratio based multivariate modelling for predicting corporate collapse. First, in the absence of financial fraud, we expect the models to consistently predict corporate collapse with a high degree of accuracy; particularly, as one approaches the incident of collapse. Second, if financial fraud takes place and statement figures are distorted, then we expect the financial ratios, which are the predictor variables in these models, to lose relevance and therefore their use in models will be short-lived. Empirical support from Hossari and Rahman (2004) and Hossari and Rahman (2005) is presented as evidence to the two premises.

Situational and dispositional indicators of performance : competing models in education

The attainment of high grades on the Victorian Certificate of Education (VCE) is critical to the future study and employment prospects of many Australian adolescents. Thus it is important to understand the factors that contribute to performance in the VCE. The aims of this study were twofold: the main aim was to test competing models of academic performance, subsuming a range of situational and dispositional variables based on a) self-efficacy theory, b) target and purpose goals, c) cognitive skills and self-regulatory strategies, and d) positive psychology. These models were each tested in terms of English performance and mathematics performance as these units contribute proportionally the most to overall VCE scores. In order to study whether pressures peculiar to the VCE impact on performance, the competing models were tested in a sample of Victorian students prior to the VCE (year 10) and then during the VCE (year 11). A preliminary study was conducted in order to develop and test four scales required for use in the major study, using an independent sample of 302 year nine students. The results indicated that these new scales were psychometrically reliable and valid. Three-hundred and seven Australian students participated in the year 10 and 11 study. These students were successively asked to provide their final years 9, 10 and 11 English and mathematics grades at times one, three and five and to complete a series of questionnaires at times two and four. Results of the year 10 study indicated that models based on self-efficacy theory were the best predictors of both English and mathematics performance, with high past grades, high self-efficacy and low anxiety contributing most to performance. While the year 10 self-efficacy models, target goal models, positive psychology models, self-regulatory models and cognitive skill based models were each robust in the sample in year 11, a substantial increase in explained variance was observed from year 10 to year 11 in the purpose goal models. Results indicated that students’ mastery goals and their performance-approach goals became substantially more predictive in the VCE than they were prior to the VCE. This result can be taken to suggest that these students responded in very instrumental ways to the pressures, and importance, of their VCE. An integrated model based on a combination of the variables from the competing models was also tested in the VCE. Results showed that these models were comparable, both in English and mathematics, to the self-efficacy models, but explained less variance than the purpose goal models. Thus in terms of parsimony the integrated models were not preferred. The implications of these results in terms of teaching practices and school counseling practices are discussed. It is recommended that students be encouraged to maintain a positive outlook in relation to their schoolwork and that they be encouraged to set their VCE goals in terms of a combination of self-referenced (mastery) and other-referenced (performance-approach) goals.

The societal benefits of reducing six behavioural risk factors : an economic modelling study from Australia

Background
A large proportion of disease burden is attributed to behavioural risk factors. However, funding for public health programs in Australia remains limited. Government and non-government organisations are interested in the productivity effects on society from reducing chronic diseases. We aimed to estimate the potential health status and economic benefits to society following a feasible reduction in the prevalence of six behavioural risk factors: tobacco smoking; inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption; high risk alcohol consumption; high body mass index; physical inactivity; and intimate partner violence.
Methods
Simulation models were developed for the 2008 Australian population. A realistic reduction in current risk factor prevalence using best available evidence with expert consensus was determined. Avoidable disease, deaths, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and health sector costs were estimated. Productivity gains included workforce (friction cost method), household production and leisure time. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and correction for the joint effects of risk factors on health status were undertaken. Consistent methods and data sources were used.
Results
Over the lifetime of the 2008 Australian adult population, total opportunity cost savings of AUD2,334 million (95% Uncertainty Interval AUD1,395 to AUD3,347; 64% in the health sector) were found if feasible reductions in the risk factors were achieved. There would be 95,000 fewer DALYs (a reduction of about 3.6% in total DALYs for Australia); 161,000 less new cases of disease; 6,000 fewer deaths; a reduction of 5 million days in workforce absenteeism; and 529,000 increased days of leisure time.
Conclusions
Reductions in common behavioural risk factors may provide substantial benefits to society. For example, the total potential annual cost savings in the health sector represent approximately 2% of total annual health expenditure in Australia. Our findings contribute important new knowledge about productivity effects, including the potential for increased household and leisure activities, associated with chronic disease prevention. The selection of targets for risk factor prevalence reduction is an important policy decision and a useful approach for future analyses. Similar approaches could be applied in other countries if the data are available.

Behavioural and physical characteristics associated with vitamin D status in women

For most people in Australia, the primary source of vitamin D is casual exposure to sunlight. Hypovitaminosis D has been reported for high-risk populations, but little has been documented for women of all ages living in the community. Using cross-sectional data, we aimed to describe physical and behavioural characteristics associated with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) for such women and to determine the association of serum 25OHD with hypertension and bone health. Serum 25OHD, parathyroid hormone (PTH), blood pressure, bone mineral density (BMD) and anthropometry were measured in a random sample of 861 women aged 20–92 years enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study, set in a temperate region at latitude 38–39°S. Lifestyle factors (including diet, smoking, medication use, socio-economic status, residence, education, occupation, and physical activity) were documented by questionnaire. In season-adjusted models for women aged 20–54 years, physical activity and living with a partner were independently and positively associated with serum 25OHD; associations with weight and waist–hip ratio were negative. Among older women, physical activity, vitamin D intake and urban dwelling were positively associated with serum 25OHD; age, weight and smoking were negative. Compared with the lowest tertile, those in the highest serum 25OHD tertile were less likely to have elevated serum PTH (adjusted OR = 0.25, 95% CI 0.16–0.41) and high blood pressure (adjusted OR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.22–0.72), and more likely to have normal hip and spine BMD (adjusted OR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.08–2.52). In multivariable models adjusting for season, age, weight (and height), BMD was associated with serum 25OHD at the spine, hip and whole body; no associations were detected at the forearm and no other characteristics were identified as confounders. Factors associated with high vitamin D status generally reflected healthy body habitus and active lifestyles. In contrast, excessive weight and smoking were associated with poorer vitamin D status. Women with high vitamin D were less likely to have elevated PTH, hypertension or bone deficits than women with poor levels.

Stochastic models of road geometry and wind condition for vehicle energy management and control

Modeling and simulation is commonly used to improve vehicle performance, to optimize vehicle system design, and to reduce vehicle development time. Vehicle performances can be affected by environmental conditions and driver behavior factors, which are often uncertain and immeasurable. To incorporate the role of environmental conditions in the modeling and simulation of vehicle systems, both real and artificial data are used. Often, real data are unavailable or inadequate for extensive investigations. Hence, it is important to be able to construct artificial environmental data whose characteristics resemble those of the real data for modeling and simulation purposes. However, to produce credible vehicle simulation results, the simulated environment must be realistic and validated using accepted practices. This paper proposes a stochastic model that is capable of creating artificial environmental factors such as road geometry and wind conditions. In addition, road geometric design principles are employed to modify the created road data, making it consistent with the real-road geometry. Two sets of real-road geometry and wind condition data are employed to propose probability models. To justify the distribution goodness of fit, Pearson's chi-square and correlation statistics have been used. Finally, the stochastic models of road geometry and wind conditions (SMRWs) are developed to produce realistic road and wind data. SMRW can be used to predict vehicle performance, energy management, and control strategies over multiple driving cycles and to assist in developing fuel-efficient vehicles.