Development and application of model of resource utilization, costs, and outcomes for stroke (MORUCOS): an Australian economic model for stroke.

Objectives: To outline the development, structure, data assumptions, and application of an Australian economic model for stroke (Model of Resource Utilization, Costs, and Outcomes for Stroke [MORUCOS]). Methods: The model has a linked spreadsheet format with four modules to describe the disease burden and treatment pathways, estimate prevalence-based and incidence-based costs, and derive life expectancy and quality of life consequences. The model uses patient-level, community-based, stroke cohort data and macro-level simulations. An interventions module allows options for change to be consistently evaluated by modifying aspects of the other modules. To date, model validation has included sensitivity testing, face validity, and peer review. Further validation of technical and predictive accuracy is needed. The generic pathway model was assessed by comparison with a stroke subtypes (ischemic, hemorrhagic, or undetermined) approach and used to determine the relative cost-effectiveness of four interventions. Results: The generic pathway model produced lower costs compared with a subtypes version (total average first-year costs/case AUD$15,117 versus AUD$17,786, respectively). Optimal evidence-based uptake of anticoagulation therapy for primary and secondary stroke prevention and intravenous thrombolytic therapy within 3 hours of stroke were more cost-effective than current practice (base year, 1997). Conclusions: MORUCOS is transparent and flexible in describing Australian stroke care and can effectively be used to systematically evaluate a range of different interventions. Adjusting results to account for stroke subtypes, as they influence cost estimates, could enhance the generic model.

Economic evaluation of Australian stroke services: a prospective, multicenter study comparing dedicated stroke units with other care modalities

Background and Purpose: Level I evidence from randomized controlled trials demonstrates that the model of hospital care influences stroke outcomes; however, the economic evaluation of such is limited. An economic appraisal of 3 acute stroke care models was facilitated through the Stroke Care Outcomes: Providing Effective Services (SCOPES) study in Melbourne, Australia. The aim was to describe resource use up to 28 weeks poststroke for each model and examine the cost-effectiveness of stroke care units (SCUs). Methods: A prospective, multicenter, cohort study design was used. Costs and outcomes of stroke patients receiving 100% treatment in 1 of 3 inpatient care models (SCUs, mobile service, conventional care) were compared. Health-sector resource use up to 28 weeks was measured in 1999. Outcomes were thorough adherence to a suite of important clinical processes and the number of severe inpatient complications. Results: The sample comprised 395 participants (mean age 73 [SD 14], 77% first-ever strokes, males 53%). When compared with conventional care (n=84), costs for mobile service (n=209) were significantly higher (P=0.024), but borderline for SCU (n=102, P=0.08; $AUD12 251; $AUD15 903; $AUD15 383 respectively). This was primarily explained by the greater use of specialist medical services. The incremental cost-effectiveness of SCUs over conventional care was $AUD9867 per patient achieving thorough adherence to clinical processes and $AUD16 372 per patient with severe complications avoided, based on costs to 28 weeks. Conclusions: Although acute SCU costs are generally higher, they are more cost-effective than either mobile service or conventional care.

Why invest in a national public health program for stroke? An example using Australian data to estimate the potential benefits and cost implications

Objectives: Stroke is the world’s second leading cause of death in people aged over 60 years. Approximately 50,000 strokes occur annually in Australia with numbers predicted to increase by about one third over 10-years. Our objectives were to assess the economic implications of a public health program for stroke by: (1) predicting what potential health-gains and cost-offsets could be achieved; and (2) determining the net level of annual investment that would offer value-for-money.

Methods: Lifetime costs and outcomes were calculated for additional cases that would benefit if ‘current practice’ was feasibly improved, estimated for one indicative year using: (i) local epidemiological data, coverage rates and costs; and (ii) pooled effect sizes from systematic reviews.

Interventions: blood pressure lowering; warfarin for atrial fibrillation; increased access to stroke units; intravenous thrombolysis and aspirin for ischemic events; and carotid endarterectomy. Value-for-money threshold: AUD$30,000/DALY recovered.

Results: Improved, prevention and management could prevent about 27,000 (38%) strokes in 2015. In present terms (2004), about 85,000 DALYs and AUD$1.06 billion in lifetime cost-offsets could be recovered. The net level of annual warranted investment was AUD$3.63 billion.

Conclusions: Primary prevention, in particular blood pressure lowering, was most effective. A public health program for stroke
is warranted

Improving access to evidence-based acute stroke services: development and evaluation of a health systems model to address equity of access issues

Level 1 evidence for management of patients with stroke in a dedicated Stroke Care Unit (SCU) demonstrates improved outcomes by about 20%. It has been estimated that 21% of Australian hospitals provide an SCU and that these SCUs are mainly located in either metropolitan sites and/or in hospitals with more than 300 beds. To address equity issues related to access to SCUs, the National Stroke Foundation and the Australian Government undertook the National Stroke Units Program. One program outcome was the development of a conceptual model of acute stroke service delivery. The development process and initial evaluation of the model are described. Use of the model to increase capacity within the health care system to treat stroke is discussed.

Trajectory characterizations for a discrete-time bearing-only navigation strategy

In this paper we explore the geometry of a particular navigation scheme which guides a pursuer from a fixed initial position to a given fixed final position using a one-step look ahead strategy and using only bearing measurements. We explicitly characterize the optimal trajectories for the problem in terms of the Cramer-Rao bound such that the derived trajectories permit a minimization in the error of an unbiased estimate of the target position.

Socio-economic and demographic variations in school lunch participation of French children aged 3-17 years

Objective: To assess school canteen attendance in a French nationally representative sample of children and to analyse its association with the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the children and their families.
Design: Data from the second French national cross-sectional food consumption survey (INCA2), performed in 2006–2007, were used. Information on usual weekly school canteen attendance was collected through a self-reported questionnaire, and demographic and socio-economic variables through a face-to-face questionnaire. The associations between school canteen attendance and the socio-economic and demographic variables were investigated by multivariate logistic regression analyses.
Setting: The INCA2 sample was representative of the children aged 3–17 years in France.
Subject: Analysis was performed on 1413 schoolchildren who completed the school canteen attendance questions.
Results: Some 65?6% of schoolchildren aged 3–17 years had school lunch at least once weekly. This rate of attendance was positively correlated with age. Whatever the school level, school canteen attendance was positively associated with the educational level of the caregiver/parent. In pre- and elementary-school children, enrolment at the school canteen was also higher when the caregiver/parent worked, or in single-parent families. In secondary-school children, school lunch participation decreased with children living in more densely populated areas and increased with the level of the household’s living standards.
Conclusions: School canteen attendance was positively associated with children’s socio-economic background. This could reduce the effectiveness of the forthcoming school meal composition regulations designed to improve the diet of children from deprived backgrounds, who are more likely to have unhealthy food habits.

Seasonal reduction in physical activity and flow-mediated dilation in children

Purpose: Cardiovascular disease is a process that has its origins in childhood. Endothelial dysfunction is the earliest detectable manifestation of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to assess the impact of seasonal changes in physical activity (PA) and body composition on conduit artery endothelial function in children.

Method: We studied 116 children (70 girls aged 10.7 ± 0.3 yr and 46 boys aged 10.7 ± 0.3 yr) on two occasions; in the northern summer (June) and late autumn (November). We assessed flow-mediated dilation (FMD) using high-resolution Doppler ultrasound. Body composition was measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. PA was assessed using accelerometry.

Results: FMD (10.0% ± 4.3% to 7.9% ± 3.9%, P < 0.001) and PA (94.1 ± 34.8 to 77.8 ± 33.7 min·d-1, P < 0.01) decreased, while percentage body fat increased (27.6% ± 6.8% to 28.0% ± 6.6%, P < 0.001) between summer and autumn. Decreases in FMD correlated with decreases in high-intensity PA (r = 0.23, P = 0.04), and change in high-intensity PA was the only predictor of change in FMD. No relationships were evident between changes in body composition and FMD.

Conclusions: Vascular function decreased between summer and autumn in this cohort. There were no relationships between change in FMD and changes in body composition or low/moderate-intensity PA. The associations between FMD and high-intensity PA suggests that future interventions should encourage this form of behavior, particularly at the times of year associated with lower PA.