Predicting future earnings growth: a test of the dividend payout ratio in the Australian market

This paper examines the use of the payout ratio as a predictor of a firm’s future earnings growth. Recent evidence rejects the hypothesis that firm which retain a large portion of their earnings have strong future earnings growth. Higher dividend payout ratios instead correspond to higher future earnings growth. Examining both listed and delisted firms on the Australian stock exchange over the period 1989 to 2008, we provide further evidence that the dividend payout ratio is positively linked to future earnings growth. The results hold over both one, three and five year periods. Furthermore, our results rejected claims that such a relationship was caused by simple mean reversion in earnings. We find no evidence to support the cash flow signaling and free cash flow hypotheses as an explanation for this relationship.

Dividend payout policy in the Chinese equity market

Jianan Guo’s thesis focus on the dividend payout policy and its interaction with corporate governance mechanism, operating performance and asset pricing in the Chinese equity market. His thesis contributes to the empirical study and literature on the corporate finance in emerging markets.

Does political economy reduce agency costs? Some evidence from dividend policies around the world

This study shows that firms in proportional-electoral countries pay out lower dividends and that the correlation between a firm's growth potential and dividend payout ratio is weaker in proportional-electoral countries. However, firms in proportional-electoral countries that cross-list in majoritarian system countries, tend to pay out higher dividends and the negative relation between growth potential and dividend payout tend to be stronger than their peers that do not cross-list. For a few countries that changed their electoral system towards a more proportional system, we observe a decrease in dividend payout ratio and a weaker relation between growth and dividends after the change. Overall these results indicate that a country's political system affects the severity of agency problems. Further, the effect of legal origin on dividend policy reverses once we include the political economy variables in the regressions. We also document that the electoral system not only affects the amount of dividends paid by a firm but also the form of payment.

Ultimate controlling shareholders and dividend payout policy in Chinese stock market

Departing from the traditional cash flow rights-dividend policy framework, this study investigates whether the level of control rights and the types of ultimate controlling shareholders (UCSs) of listed firms in China influence their cash dividend payout. We find that the level of control rights is positively associated with both the probability to pay and the level of cash dividend payout, which indicates that UCSs use cash dividends to reduce the agency cost of free cash flow and redirect listed firms' cash balance. Furthermore, different types of UCSs influence dissimilarly on the controlled firms' cash dividends, which can be attributed to the backgrounds of these UCSs originating from China's unique partial share issuance privatization process.

Fundamental determinants of the Australian price-earnings multiple

This paper is the first attempt to investigate the factors fundamental to the setting of the price–earnings (P–E) multiple for the Australian stock market. The quarterly P–E ratio for the ASX 200 index is used as a measure of the market wide P–E multiple. It is demonstrated that a large portion of the variation in the P–E multiple can be explained by the dividend payout ratio, interest rates and GDP growth rates. In addition, consumers' confidence—a leading indicator of future growth opportunities, the Australian–US exchange rate—a key determinant of the competitiveness of domestic companies, and volatility of domestic market returns—a risk factor, have incremental explanatory power.

Further evidence on the corporate use of derivatives in Australia : the case of foreign currency and interest rate instruments

In a recent issue of this journal Nguyen and Faff (2002) reported on an empirical exploration of the motives behind the aggregate use of financial derivatives by Australian companies. Employing the same sample of firms, the current paper extends their analysis to investigate similar issues, this time focussing separately on foreign currency and interest rate derivatives. At a specific level, our results reveal the following. A firm is more likely to use foreign currency derivatives if it is large and has more debt in its capital structure. Interest rate derivatives, on the other hand, are more likely to be used if a firm is larger, more levered, more liquid and pays higher dividends. These results are consistent with existing hedging theories. Market to book value (proxying growth opportunities), however, portrays an inconsistent relationship with the likelihood of interest rate derivative usage. When it comes to the extent of usage, a firm uses foreign currency derivatives more extensively if it is smaller, pays higher dividends and has more debt. Similarly, interest rate derivatives are used more extensively to address a high level of debt and a high dividend payout policy. At a general level, the current study confirms the core finding of Nguyen and Faff (2002), namely, that Australian companies use derivatives with a view to value maximisation.

Takeover deterrent effect of on-market share buyback

This study examines whether Australian firms use on-market share buybacks to deter unwanted takeover risk from the stock market. We found a statistically significant and positive relation between a firm’s ex-ante takeover probability and its on-market share buyback activities. The result is robust to alternative modelling techniques, namely TOBIT and Censored Quantile Regressions. This could be partly explained by Brown and O’day (2007) hypothesis on dividend payout, that in a non-classical taxation system like Australia, yield of share buyback is positively related to dividend payments. However on-market share buyback activity is closely related to temporary cash flows rather than permanent operating cash flows. This might indicate that besides dividend payments, Australian firms might take advantage of the financial flexibility of share buybacks to redistribute non-permanent cash flows to their shareholders.

Dividends and family ownership: evidence from Indonesia

The thesis finds a significant negative association between family ownership and dividend payout in the Indonesian market. . It is revealed that the market does not disregard the existence of family ownership in reacting to dividend announcements. It documents dividend-paying family firms are associated with lower abnormal accruals as as a proxy of earnings management.

Dividends, leverage, and family ownership in the emerging Indonesian market

We examine the roles of dividends and leverage to mitigate agency problems within familyfirms in Indonesia. Using simultaneous equations, we find a significant negative associationbetween family ownership and dividend payout and a two-way negative relation betweendividend payout and leverage. Our analysis reveals that, compared to non-family firms,family firms tend to maintain a lower dividend pay-out and higher leverage. The presenceof large non-family ownership appears to have an impact on determining levels of privatebenefit control. During the Asian and global financial crisis, family firms changed theirdividend pay-out more than non-family firms did.

The association between the investment opportunity set and corporate financing and dividend decisions: some Australian evidence

Summarizes previous research on the investment opportunity set (IOS) using price-based and investment-based proxies and variance measures; and develops hypotheses on the relationship between IOS, debt/equity ratios and dividend policies. Tests them on 1990-1998 data from listed Australian companies and explains the methodology, which builds on Gover and Gover (1993) by including more recent proxy variables. Finds no significant results from low growth firms, although some high growth firms show lower debt/equity ratios and dividends. Questions the robustness of existing IOS proxies in the Australian context and calls for further research.

Performance of juvenile Murray cod, Maccullochella peelii peelii (Mitchell), fed with diets of different protein to energy ratio

The results of a 56-day experiment on juvenile Murray cod, Maccullochella peelii peelii, an Australian native fish with a high aquaculture potential, of mean weight 14.9 ± 0.04 g, fed with five experimental diets, one a series of 40% protein content and lipid levels of 10, 17 and 24% (P40L10, P40L17 and P40L24), and another of 50% protein and 17 and 24% (P50L17 and P50L24) lipid are presented. The specific growth rate (SGR) (% day−1) of fish maintained on different diets ranged from 1.18 to 1.41, and was not significantly different between dietary treatments, except P40L10 and the rest. However, there was a general tendency for SGR to increase with increasing dietary lipid content at both protein levels. The food conversion ratio (FCR) for the 40% protein series diets were poorer compared with those of the 50% protein diets, and the best FCR of 1.14 was observed with the P50L17 diet. The protein efficiency ratio (PER), however, was better in fish reared on low protein diets. The net protein utilization (NPU) also did not differ significantly (P > 0.05) in relation to dietary treatment. As in the case of PER the highest NPU was observed in Murray cod reared on diet P40L24 and the lowest in fish fed with diet P50L24. The carcass lipid content reflected that of the diets, when significant increases in the lipid content was observed in relation to dietary lipid content at both protein levels. However, body muscle lipid content did not increase with increasing dietary lipid content, and was significantly lower than in the whole body. The fatty acids found in highest concentration amongst the saturates, monoenes and polyunsaturates (PUFAs) were 16 : 0, 18 : 1n-9 and 22 : 6n-3, respectively, and each of these accounted for more than 60% of each of the group's total. The muscle fatty acid content was affected by the dietary lipid content; for example the total amount (in μg mg−1 lipid) of monoenes ranged from 72 ± 5.1 (P40L10) to 112 ± 10 (P40L24) and 112 ± 2.8 (P50L17) to 132 ± 11.8 (P50L24) and the n-6 series fatty acids increased with increasing dietary lipid content, although not always significant. Most notably, 18 : 2n-6 increased with the dietary lipid level in both series of diets.

Dividend forecasts and dividend payments of initial public offerings-when zero means zero and no comment most likely also means zero

Managers often try to forecast dividends because as Brown et al. (2002)  suggest, dividends have cash flow implications for investors and are important signalling devices. This study analyses the dividend forecasts in the prospectuses of initial public offerings (IPOs) in Australia over the period 1994 to 1999. While many companies forecast dividends, many make no dividend forecast at all and some forecast no (or zero) dividends for the forthcoming year. This paper seeks to determine if no forecast at all should present a different signal to investors than a zero dividend forecast. It is found that those that do not forecast a dividend, by and large, do not pay a dividend. It is also found that those that forecast a zero dividend, true to their forecast, pay no dividend.

Methodological shifts in ratio-based modelling of corporate collapse

The year 1968 saw a major shift from univariate to multivariate methodological approaches to ratio-based modelling of corporate collapse. This was facilitated by the introduction of a new statistical tool called Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA). However, it did not take long before other statistical tools were developed. The primary objective for developing these tools was to enable deriving models that would at least do as good a job asMDA, but rely on fewer assumptions. With the introduction of new statistical tools, researchers became pre-occupied with testing them in signalling collapse. lLTUong the ratio-based approaches were Logit analysis, Neural Network analysis, Probit analysis, ID3, Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, Rough Sets analysis, Decomposition analysis, Going Concern Advisor, Koundinya and Purl judgmental approach, Tabu Search and Mixed Logit analysis. Regardless of which methodological approach was chosen, most were compared to MDA. This paper reviews these various approaches. Emphasis is placed on how they fared against MDA in signalling corporate collapse.

A dynamic ratio-based model for signalling corporate collapse

The recognition of behavioural elements in finance has caused major shifts in the analytic framework pertaining to ratio-based modeling of corporate collapse. The modeling approach so far has been based on the classical rational theory in behavioural economics, which assumes that the financial ratios (i.e., the predictors of collapse) are static over time. The paper argues that, in the absence of rational economic theory, a static model is flawed, and that a suitable model instead is one that reflects the heuristic behavioural framework, which is what characterises behavioural attributes of company directors and in turn influences the accounting numbers used in calculating the financial ratios. This calls for a dynamic model: dynamic in the sense that it does not rely on a coherent assortment of financial ratios for signaling corporate collapse over multiple time periods. This paper provides empirical evidence, using a data set of Australian publicly listed companies, to demonstrate that a dynamic model consistently outperforms its static counterpart in signaling the event of collapse. On average, the overall predictive power of the dynamic model is 86.83% compared to an average overall predictive power of 69.35% for the static model.

Waist-to-Hip Ratio and Unhealthy Body Change in Women

The role of waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) in unhealthy body change was examined in a sample of 143 women university students. They completed the Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire (EDE-Q), reported their level of concern with weight and with WHR, and used unmarked measuring tapes to record their subjective (self-perceived), ideal, and objective (measured) waist and hip circumference. Although body shape was reported as important, and concern with WHR correlated significantly with symptoms of disordered eating, the relationships involving WHR were not independent of those involving body weight. Thus, there appears to be little behavioural and/or clinical significance in the aesthetic evaluations made by women of their WHR. Reasons for this are considered in light of evidence that women regard WHR as more difficult to control and less amenable to change than their overall body weight.