A new fuzzy-based combined prediction interval for wind power forecasting

This paper makes use of the idea of prediction intervals (PIs) to capture the uncertainty associated with wind power generation in power systems. Since the forecasting errors cannot be appropriately modeled using distribution probability functions, here we employ a powerful nonparametric approach called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method to construct the PIs. The proposed LUBE method uses a new framework based on a combination of PIs to overcome the performance instability of neural networks (NNs) used in the LUBE method. Also, a new fuzzy-based cost function is proposed with the purpose of having more freedom and flexibility in adjusting NN parameters used for construction of PIs. In comparison with the other cost functions in the literature, this new formulation allows the decision-makers to apply their preferences for satisfying the PI coverage probability and PI normalized average width individually. As the optimization tool, bat algorithm with a new modification is introduced to solve the problem. The feasibility and satisfying performance of the proposed method are examined using datasets taken from different wind farms in Australia.

Voltage regulation in renewable energy integration into the distribution network

Large-scale renewable energy (RE) integration into the distribution network (DN) causes uncertainties due to its intermittent nature and is a challenging task today. In general RE sources are mostly connected near the end user level, i.e., in the low voltage distribution network. RE integration introduces bi-directional power flows across distribution transformer (DT) and hence DN experiences with several potential problems that includes voltage fluctuations, reactive power compensation and poor power factor in the DN. This study identifies the potential effects causes due to large-scale integration of RE into the Berserker Street Feeder, Frenchville Substation under Rockhampton DN. From the model analyses, it has clearly evident that voltage of the Berserker Street Feeder fluctuates with the increased integration of RE and causes uncertainties in the feeder as well as the DN.

Performance analysis of a grid-connected PV system in LV distribution network

Over the past decade, the growing demand of Grid-connected photo voltaic (GCPV) system has been increasing due to an extensive use of renewable energy technologies for sustainable power generation and distribution. High-penetrated GCPV systems enhance the operation of the network by improving the voltage levels and reducing the active power losses along the length of the feeder. This paper aims to investigate the voltage variations and Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) of a typical GCPV system modelled in Power system simulator, PSS SINCAL with the change of level of PV integrations in a Low Voltage (LV) distribution network. Five different case studies are considered to investigate the impact of PV integrations on LV nodes and the corresponding voltage variations and harmonics. In addition, this paper also explores and benchmarks the voltage improvement techniques by implementing On Load Tap Changer (OLTC) with respective to the main transformer and addition of Shunt Capacitor (SC) at appropriate node points in LV network,