Monitoring the ungulate prey of the Komodo dragon Varanus komodoensis: distance sampling or faecal counts?

Monitoring the abundances of prey is important for informing the management of threatened and endangered predators. We evaluated the usefulness of faecal counts and distance sampling for monitoring the abundances of rusa deer Rusa timorensis, feral pig Sus scrofa and water buffalo Bubalus bubalis, the three key prey of the Komodo dragon Varanus komodoensis, at 11 sites on five islands in and around Komodo National Park, eastern Indonesia. We used species-specific global detection functions and cluster sizes (i.e. multiple covariates distance sampling) to estimate densities of rusa deer and feral pig, but there were too few observations to estimate densities of water buffalo. Rusa deer densities varied from from 2.5 to 165.5 deer/km2 with coefficients of variation (CVs) of 15-105%. Feral pig densities varied from 0.0 to 25.2 pigs/km 2 with CVs of 25-106%. There was a positive relationship between estimated faecal densities and estimated population densities for both rusa deer and feral pig: the form of the relationship was non-linear for rusa deer, but there was similar support for linear and non-linear relationships for feral pig. We found that faecal counts were more useful when ungulate densities were too low to estimate densities with distance sampling. Faecal count methods were also easier for field staff to conduct than distance sampling. Because spatial and temporal variation in ungulate density is likely to influence the population dynamics of the Komodo dragon, we recommend that annual monitoring of ungulates in and around Komodo National Park be undertaken using distance sampling and faecal counts. The relationships reported here will also be useful for managers establishing monitoring programmes for feral pig, rusa deer and water buffalo elsewhere in their native and exotic ranges.

Estimating population size of the black-eared miner, with an assessment of landscape-scale habitat requirements

The decline of the Black-eared Miner Manorina melanotis has been caused primarily by habitat degradation and vegetation clearance. To better direct conservation actions for this species there was a need to assess habitat requirements on a regional-scale and to estimate the population size using quantitative methods. We used vegetation mapping and the current distribution of the Black-eared Miner to determine regional-scale habitat requirements. These findings were combined with the results of distance sampling to provide population estimates. The species is restricted to large tracts of intact mallee in the Murray Mallee of southeastern Australia that have not been burnt for at least 45 years. The density· of Black-eared Miners is highest in areas that are dominated by mallee- Triodia associations and have not been intensively grazed. The Bookmark Biosphere Reserve supports an estimated 501 (270-927, 95% CI) colonies, containing 3758 (2026-6954) phenotypically pure Black-eared Miners, 2255 (1 215-4170) hybrids and small numbers of Yellow-throated Miners Manorina flavigula. However, the effective population size is considerably smaller (390 Black-eared Miners '(21 0-726) and 234 hybrids (126-433)), due to a skewed adult sex ratio (1 female: 1.81 males) and complex social organization. A smaller population also persists in the Murray Sunset National Park containing 53 (32-85) Black-eared Miner/hybrid colonies. Both populations face a high risk of extinction from large-scale wildfire. The endangered status of the species under IUCN criteria remains warranted.

Corvids congregate to breeding colonies of a burrow-nesting seabird

Egg predation is a major cause of reproductive failure among birds, and can compromise the viability of affected populations. Some egg predators aggregate near colonially breeding birds to exploit the seasonal increase of prey resources. We investigated spatial and temporal variations in the abundance of an egg predator (little raven Corvus mellori; Corvidae) to identify whether ravens aggregate spatially or temporally to coincide with any of three potential prey species: burrow-nesting little penguin (Eudyptula minor; Spheniscidae), short-tailed shearwater (Ardenna tenuirostris; Procellariidae), and surface-nesting silver gull (Chroicocephalus novaehollandiae; Laridae). We derived spatially explicit density estimates of little ravens using distance sampling along line transects throughout a calendar year, which encompassed little penguin, short-tailed shearwater and silver gull breeding and non-breeding seasons. High raven abundance coincided temporally with penguin and gull egg laying periods but not with that of shearwaters. The spatial distribution of raven density corresponded with the little penguin colony but not with shearwater or gull colonies. Thus, the presence of little penguin eggs in burrows correlated strongly with little raven activity, and this implies that little ravens may have learnt to exploit the plentiful subsurface food resource of little penguin eggs. Corvid management may be required to maintain the viability of this socially and economically important penguin colony.

Evaluation of three field monitoring-density estimation protocols and their relevance to Komodo dragon conservation

Finding practical ways to robustly estimate abundance or density trends in threatened species is a key facet for effective conservation management. Further identifying less expensive monitoring methods that provide adequate data for robust population density estimates can facilitate increased investment into other conservation initiatives needed for species recovery. Here we evaluated and compared inference-and cost-effectiveness criteria for three field monitoring-density estimation protocols to improve conservation activities for the threatened Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). We undertook line-transect counts, cage trapping and camera monitoring surveys for Komodo dragons at 11 sites within protected areas in Eastern Indonesia to collect data to estimate density using distance sampling methods or the Royle-Nichols abundance induced heterogeneity model. Distance sampling estimates were considered poor due to large confidence intervals, a high coefficient of variation and that false absences were obtained in 45 % of sites where other monitoring methods detected lizards present. The Royle-Nichols model using presence/absence data obtained from cage trapping and camera monitoring produced highly correlated density estimates, obtained similar measures of precision and recorded no false absences in data collation. However because costs associated with camera monitoring were considerably less than cage trapping methods, albeit marginally more expensive than distance sampling, better inference from this method is advocated for ongoing population monitoring of Komodo dragons. Further the cost-savings achieved by adopting this field monitoring method could facilitate increased expenditure on alternative management strategies that could help address current declines in two Komodo dragon populations.

Attending to risk in sequential sampling plans

Researchers typically tackle questions by constructing powerful, highlyreplicated sampling protocols or experimental designs. Such approaches often demand large samples sizes and are usually only conducted on a once-off basis. In contrast, many industries need to continually monitor phenomena such as equipment reliability, water quality, or the abundance of a pest. In such instances, costs and time inherent in sampling preclude the use of highlyintensive methods. Ideally, one wants to collect the absolute minimum number of samples needed to make an appropriate decision. Sequential sampling, wherein the sample size is a function of the results of the sampling process itself, offers a practicable solution. But smaller sample sizes equate to less knowledge about the population, and thus an increased risk of making an incorrect management decision. There are various statistical techniques to account for and measure risk in sequential sampling plans. We illustrate these methods and assess them using examples relating to the management of arthropod pests in commercial crops, but they can be applied to any situation where sequential sampling is used.

Enhancing the learning environment for distance education students

This paper reports on the development of an asynchronous learning  environment for the teaching of introductory macroeconomics to    approximately 200 distance education students. The research supports evidence in the current literature that computer mediated communication and in particular, collaborative learning, can make a positive difference to the educational experience of some students. These findings are based on both quantitative and qualitative data gained from student evaluations,  participation levels, staff interviews and an analysis of the online communication. The discussion centres on the extent of collaboration, the role of assessment, adaptation of curriculum and pedagogy and the students' attitudes to economics.

Selected Ranked Set Sampling

This paper proposes a sampling procedure called selected ranked set sampling (SRSS), in which only selected observations from a ranked set sample (RSS) are measured. This paper describes the optimal linear estimation of location and scale parameters based on SRSS, and for some distributions it presents the required tables for optimal selections. For these distributions, the optimal SRSS estimators are compared with the other popular simple random sample (SRS) and RSS estimators. In every situation the estimators based on SRSS are found advantageous at least in some respect, compared to those obtained from SRS or RSS. The SRSS method with errors in ranking is also described. The relative precision of the estimator of the population mean is investigated for different degrees of correlations between the actual and erroneous ranking. The paper reports the minimum value of the correlation coefficient between the actual and the erroneous ranking required for achieving better precision with respect to the usual SRS estimator and with respect to the RSS estimator.

The influence of time since fire and distance from fire boundary on the distribution and abundance of arboreal marsupials in Eucalyptus regnans-dominated forest in the Central Highlands of Victoria

The impact of time since fire after two consecutive wildfires 44 years apart (1939 and 1983) within the same area, and the distance from the fire boundary «100 m or 500-2000 m), were investigated in relation to the distribution and abundance of arboreal marsupials in 1994. Arboreal marsupials were censused by stagwatching and spotlighting in two relatively young age classes of mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) dominated forest in the Central Highlands of Victoria. Five species of arboreal marsupial were detected, but only three were detected in sufficient numbers to determine habitat preferences. Petauroides volans (greater glider) was statistically more abundant in 1939 regrowth forests, while Trichosurus caninus (mountain brushtail possum) showed no significant preference for either age class of forest. All but one record of Gymnobelideus leadbeateri (Leadbeater's possum) came from young forest, though the effect of age-class was not statistically significant. Distance from fire boundary explained little or no variation in mammal distribution or abundance. While the actual number of hollow-bearing trees was similar in both age classes of forest, the long-term lifespan of hollow-bearing trees in more recently burnt forest is predicted to be lower than in unburnt or not recently burnt forest. Post-fire salvage logging following the 1983 wildfires appears to have reduced the number of hollow-bearing trees at sites burnt in 1983.

Social presence online: networking learners at a distance

This paper draws on two studies which researched the use of online small group environments where collaborative learning is a central structure for learning. The establishment of social presence is facilitated through the socio-affective aspect of small group interaction which contributed to the effectiveness of learning online. Social presence, the ability of online learners to project themselves into a textual environment which has few visual or contextual cues, will be explored as an important element in facilitating effective online learning. The teacher's role in helping students project their online social presence and in establishing an environment for learning within the larger group computer conference will also be discussed.

Distance learning for laboratory practical work in microcontrollers

This paper presents a simple and relatively straightforward solution to the problems of equity in laboratory practical exposure between distance-education students and their traditional, on-campus, fellow cohort. This system has been implemented for the past five years in a university that is amongst the leaders in distance education delivery and has proved to be extremely successful and very well accepted by all students. While the intention was to allow distance education students easy access to the required laboratory practical content of the course, the solution found has proved to have many advantages for the on-campus students. Although this specific implementation is based upon microcontroller technology units in an engineering degree course, the methodology is easily transferable to other disciplines and courses.

A grid-based index method for time warping distance

Recently DTW (dynamic time warping) has been recognized as the most robust distance function to measure the similarity between two time series, and this fact has spawned a flurry of research on this topic. Most indexing methods proposed for DTW are based on the R-tree structure. Because of high dimensionality and loose lower bounds for time warping distance, the pruning power of these tree structures are quite weak, resulting in inefficient search. In this paper, we propose a dimensionality reduction method motivated by observations about the inherent character of each time series. A very compact index file is constructed. By scanning the index file, we can get a very small candidate set, so that the number of page access is dramatically reduced. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on real and synthetic datasets.