Risk analysis in cost planning and its effect on efficiency in capital cost budgeting

Builds on earlier work which reported on the experience of the Hong Kong Government in using risk analysis techniques in capital cost estimating. In 1993 the Hong Kong Government implemented a methodology for capital cost estimating using risk analysis (ERA) in its public works planning. This calculated amount replaces the pre-1993 contingency allowance, which was merely a percentage addition on top of the base estimate of a project. Adopts a team approach to identify, classify and cost the uncertainties associated with a project. The sum of the average risk allowance for the identified risk events thus becomes the contingency. A study of the effect of ERA was carried out to compare the variability and consistency of the contingency estimates between non-ERA and ERA projects. The preliminary results of a survey showed a highly significant difference in variation and consistency between these groups. This analysis indicates the successful use of the ERA method for public works projects to reduce unnecessary and  exaggerated allowance for risk. However, the contingency allowance for ERA projects was also considered high. Adds data from the UK with descriptions of 41 private sector projects which fall into the non-ERA category and reflect better performance in the determining of contingency allowances.

Financial accounting and library collections : the bottom line

The valuation and depreciation of library collections is an increasing challenge in the context of financial accounting requirements. The depreciation implications of major collection management strategies have become of increasing concern to Deakin University library in regard to accrual accounting reporting procedures. Changes to library collections, such as the transition to online journals, are moving the financial value of library collections from capital to operating budgets. Major collection management projects such as weeding print assets can have unexpected implications for depreciation and library budgets. Gratis publication acquisitions can also significantly affect valuation and depreciation. Many other libraries are facing similar challenges and this paper will incorporate a range of experiences and practices.

There appears to be little consistency across libraries in how collections are valued and accounting procedures can differ greatly across institutions. The seemingly arbitrary and often questionable nature of financial policies in relation to library collections can create problems for libraries when used to inform decision making and budgets. Libraries increasingly need to work in partnership with financial managers to ensure the financial reporting requirements do not result in adverse implications for collections and budgets and that the capacity of the library to meet its strategic objectives is not impeded. This paper explores the issues and challenges facing many libraries and outlines some strategies to assist library managers in dealing with this financial conundrum

Explanations for mixed-orientation marriage : a comparative study of previously married and never-married gay men

Despite a large body of literature on the development of sexual orientation, little is known about why some men who marry women have (or develop) a homosexual orientation. In the current study, a selfselected sample of 43 never-married gay men and 26 gay men who were married to a woman completed a self-report questionnaire. As well as obtaining descriptive information from the 26 men about their marriages and reason for marrying, hypotheses were tested, based on five possible explanations for gay men’s marriages: (a) internalised homophobia; (b) religious intolerance (c) confusion created because of childhood/adolescent sexual experiences; (d) poor psychological adjustment; and (e) differences in strength of sexual preference. The two most frequent reasons for marriage were that it “seemed natural”, and a desire to have children and “family life”. The attitudes to gay men and lesbians held currently by the married group were significantly more positive than their reports of their attitudes around the time their marriage commenced, and the level of childhood sexual experiences with adults or older adolescents was significantly associated with the extent of their unsafe sexual practices with men (prior, during and/or after marriage). Marrieds described their families’ religious beliefs as more fundamentalist than never-marrieds. Family adaptability and family cohesion and the degree to which respondents reported having experienced child maltreatment did not distinguished between marrieds and never-marrieds, however these variables did predict the level of self-depreciation. No differences were found between marrieds and never-marrieds’ ratings of their sexual orientation and identity, homophobia, or self-depreciation. The results highlight how little is understood of the reasons why gay men marry, and the need to develop an adequate theoretical model.

A greener house : the sustainable property investor's guide to buying, building and renovating

Sustainability is now an integral part of society and the built environment. Unfortunately many home owners and home-buyers are unaware of the relationship between sustainability and value, especially with regard to the potential added value to their home. Payback periods can be different depending on factors such as the initial capital outlay and the levels of depreciation and obsolescence, as well as savings made (if any) to the running costs of the home

Book reviews : China factors : political perspectives and economic interactions

According to Cheung, common challenges such as currency depreciation, share market volatility and export competition brought by the financial crisis helped to accelerate economic integration between Hong Kong, Taiwan and mainland China. According to Cheung, these mechanisms pull the island in a different direction - namely, the internationalisation of Taiwan.

The relationship between sustainability and the value of office buildings

There is an increasing body of evidence to suggest that the development of sustainability in office buildings and the acceptance of these buildings in the broader property market is increasing. However a gap still remains between the value of sustainability and the value of the building from an International Valuation Standards Committee (IVSC) definition of market value. Current literature is limited in the investigation of the impact of sustainable criteria on value component when undertaking a valuation of a commercial office building. Whilst substantial advances have been made in sustainable design and construction aspects, as well as reducing implementation costs and enhancing benefits associated with sustainability, there appears to be inherent barriers in adopting sustainability in the valuation process for the property industry.

This paper examines the limited previous research into the elements of sustainable criteria that impact upon property value, and in turn should be reflected in traditional valuation methods. The immaturity of the property market for sustainable building is such that current valuation methods do not appear to have significant evidential proof of increased property value through sales or lease evidence for sustainable buildings. Furthermore, this lack of market evidence makes it inherently difficult for valuers to assess the real market value of sustainable buildings through current valuation methodology. In other words, the level of risk associated with incorporating different levels of sustainability into office buildings appears difficult to measure using a market value perspective in today’s property market. Accordingly this paper examines current research that has been undertaken to identify particular sustainable criteria that potentially affects the value of a sustainable building. For example, previous research suggests that sustainable criteria impact upon the valuation equation through rental growth, depreciation, risk premium and cash flow. This paper also examines how other studies have viewed the impact of sustainable criteria and how they are weighted within the valuation equation. The discussion provides an insight into the rapidly evolving area of sustainability and office buildings with emphasis placed on the valuation process that seeks to assess a hypothetical purchaser’s perspective of this relationship.

On the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for India

In this paper, we apply several variants of the EGARCH model to examine the role of depreciation of the Indian rupee on India's stock market returns using daily data. Our findings suggest that volatility persistence has been high; depreciation of the rupee has increased volatility; and asymmetric volatility confirms that negative shocks generate more volatility than positive shocks. We also find that an appreciation of the Indian rupee over the 2002 to 2006 has generated more returns and less volatility.

New Zealand’s trade balance : evidence of the J-curve and granger causality

This article tests for the existence of any cointegration relationship between trade balance and real effective exchange rate (REER), foreign income and domestic income for New Zealand during the period 1970-2000. It also examines the direction of the casual relationship between the above variables, and applies the impulse response analysis to determine whether shocks to the REER induce the trade balance to follow a J-curve pattern. The results indicate that there is no cointegration relationship between the above variables; there is a casual connection in both directions between trade balance and foreign income; and New Zealand's trade balance exhibits a J-curve pattern when there is a depreciation of the New Zealand dollar.

An empirical analysis of the effects of the exchange rate on Canadian tourism

The effects of depreciation of the Canadian dollar on the Canadian tourist industry are estimated, and it is shown that the exchange rate had a modest impact in attracting U. S. visitors to Canada. However, the favorable exchange rate effects seem to be offset by other factors.

The effects of the late 2000s global financial crisis on Australia's construction demand

An accurate measurement of the impacts of external shocks on construction demand will enable construction industry policymakers and developers to make allowances for future occurrences and advance the construction industry in a sustainable manner. This paper aims to measurethe dynamic effects of the late 2000s global financial crisis on the level of demand in the Australian construction industry. The vector error correction (VEC) model with intervention indicators is employed to estimate the external impact from the crisis on a macro-level construction economic indicator, namely construction demand. The methodology comprises six main stages to produce appropriate VEC models that describe the characteristics of the underlying process. Research findings suggestthat overall residential and non-residential construction demand were affected significantly by the recent crisis and seasonality. Non-residentialconstruction demand was disrupted more than residential construction demand at the crisis onset. The residential constructionindustry is more reactive and is able to recover faster following the crisis in comparison with the non-residential industry. The VEC model with intervention indicators developed in this study can be used as an experiment for an advanced econometric method. This can be used to analyse the effects of special eventsand factors not only on construction but also on other industries.

Consumer response to unit pricing for mobile telephony

This project is a co-operative study between ACCAN and Deakin University. It focuses on Unit Pricing, the practice of displaying the price of goods or services based on a standard quantity, to allow a direct comparison between competitive offers. This study aimed at gauging whether the new unit pricing information for mobile phone contracts assists consumers in assessing and comparing the value provided across alternative contracts within and between suppliers. Some 24 in-depth interviews were conducted with consumers who had recently bought or renewed a mobile phone contract.
The research showed that most consumers could use unit pricing information and some found it useful. Where consumers’ plans had unlimited or infinite capacity, unit pricing information was not relevant. Many consumers preferred voice allowances to be expressed in minutes, rather than in dollar allowances. Data was the most problematic category, as consumers typically had only limited understanding of the amount of data that various applications used. Most did have a broad understanding of what total capacity in data they would need, typically expressed in gigabytes.
Consumers commonly sought simplicity in deciding on which plan they would purchase or renew. A key issue for consumers was not “going over”, that is not exceeding their call, text or data allowances. For that reason, they were prepared to choose a plan that commonly resulted in them not using their full allowances each month. Some consumers used Apps on their smartphones to monitor their usage. Not all consumers had experienced advisory messages about nearing the limits of their plan’s allowances.
The Report recommended that:

R1. Unit pricing should be maintained
R2. Where unit pricing is provided for call costs, these should be expressed in terms of a one-minute call.
R3 Unit pricing for data should be expressed in terms of gigabytes or part thereof.
R4 In advertising mobile phone plans and at point of sales, customers should be provided with three levels of information – 1) overall plan features, 2) unit pricing information and 3) a data calculator.
R5 Level 2 and 3 information should be provided in a standard format across the industry, enabling consumers to make ready comparisons between plans and between competitive offers from different providers.
R6. Continuing public education is needed.
R7. Warnings about going over should always include the date when the allowance period ends and tell consumers what the rate will be if they “go over” based on the Level 2 information.
R8. The Consumer Protection Code should be reviewed in the light of these findings and recommendations.

Protein requirements and recommendations for older people: a review

Declines in skeletal muscle mass and strength are major contributors to increased mortality, morbidity and reduced quality of life in older people. Recommended Dietary Allowances/Intakes have failed to adequately consider the protein requirements of the elderly with respect to function. The aim of this paper was to review definitions of optimal protein status and the evidence base for optimal dietary protein. Current recommended protein intakes for older people do not account for the compensatory loss of muscle mass that occurs on lower protein intakes. Older people have lower rates of protein synthesis and whole-body proteolysis in response to an anabolic stimulus (food or resistance exercise). Recommendations for the level of adequate dietary intake of protein for older people should be informed by evidence derived from functional outcomes. Randomized controlled trials report a clear benefit of increased dietary protein on lean mass gain and leg strength, particularly when combined with resistance exercise. There is good consistent evidence (level III-2 to IV) that consumption of 1.0 to 1.3 g/kg/day dietary protein combined with twice-weekly progressive resistance exercise reduces age-related muscle mass loss. Older people appear to require 1.0 to 1.3 g/kg/day dietary protein to optimize physical function, particularly whilst undertaking resistance exercise recommendations.