Methodological shifts in ratio-based modelling of corporate collapse

The year 1968 saw a major shift from univariate to multivariate methodological approaches to ratio-based modelling of corporate collapse. This was facilitated by the introduction of a new statistical tool called Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA). However, it did not take long before other statistical tools were developed. The primary objective for developing these tools was to enable deriving models that would at least do as good a job asMDA, but rely on fewer assumptions. With the introduction of new statistical tools, researchers became pre-occupied with testing them in signalling collapse. lLTUong the ratio-based approaches were Logit analysis, Neural Network analysis, Probit analysis, ID3, Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, Rough Sets analysis, Decomposition analysis, Going Concern Advisor, Koundinya and Purl judgmental approach, Tabu Search and Mixed Logit analysis. Regardless of which methodological approach was chosen, most were compared to MDA. This paper reviews these various approaches. Emphasis is placed on how they fared against MDA in signalling corporate collapse.

Multiple regime shifts in concurring and dissenting opinions on the U.S. Supreme Court

In a previous issue of this journal, Smyth and Narayan (2004) examine structural change in the level of consensus on the High Court of Australia. In this article we adopt a similar strategy to that employed in Smyth and Narayan (2004) to estimate both the number and location of structural breaks in concurring and dissenting opinions on the U.S. Supreme Court. Although it has commonly been believed that there has been one regime shift on the U.S. Supreme Court, corresponding to the breakdown in the consensual norm in the 1930s or 1940s, we find that there have been three breaks in consensus. We find that two of the three breaks in dissenting opinions correspond closely to the beginning of the terms of Taney and Stone as Chief Justice, with the third occurring in the middle of Chase's term. We find that two of the three breaks in concurring opinions correspond closely to the beginning of the terms of Taney and Hughes and that the third break in concurring opinions occurs in the middle of the Warren Court.

Modelling the linkages between the Australian and G7 stock markets : common stochastic trends and regime shifts

This paper examines whether the Australian equity market is integrated with the equity markets of the G7 economies by applying both the Johansen (Statistical analysis of conintegrating vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-54, 1988) and Gregory and Hansen (Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts, Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126, 1996) approaches to cointegration. Some evidence of a pairwise long-run relationship between the Australian stock market and the stock markets of Canada, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom is found, but the Australian equity market is not pairwise cointegrated with the equity markets of France, Germany or the USA.

Impact of shifts in health policy on the role and practice of generalist community health nurses

Provides a critical analysis of trends in health policy which are impacting on the role and practice of generalist community nurses in Victoria. The thesis draws on critical social theory to research and analyse trends in health policy in relation to the Community Health Program.

Small shifts in diurnal rhythms are associated with an increase in suicide : the effect of daylight saving

Large disruptions of chronobiological rhythms are documented as destabilizing individuals with bipolar disorder; however, the impact of small phase altering events is unclear. Australian suicide data from 1971 to 2001 were assessed to determine the impact on the number of suicides of a 1-h time shift due to daylight saving. The results confirm that male suicide rates rise in the weeks following the commencement of daylight saving, compared to the weeks following the return to eastern standard time and for the rest of the year. After adjusting for the season, prior to 1986 suicide rates in the weeks following the end of daylight saving remained significantly increased compared to the rest of autumn. This study suggests that small changes in chronobiological rhythms are potentially destabilizing in vulnerable individuals.

Teaching and learning history in primary schools : pedagogical shifts, complexities and opportunities

From 2011 the teaching and learning of History will be expanded into all primary schools (Kindergarten – Year 6) throughout Australia under a National Curriculum, including the formal preschool/kindergarten year. History as one of four core subjects will replace current studies of society and environment curriculum taught in primary schools across. The curriculum implementation process will involve a cultural and pedagogical shift as primary teachers make adjustments to the discipline of History. This article begins with an outline of the current curriculum context. An analysis of the New South Wales Human Society and Its Environment and the Australian Curriculum: History Draft Consultation documents follows. The findings indicate that the History Draft Consultation lacks clear guidance for teachers and has a number of shortcomings compared to the NSW HSIE syllabus. There are opportunities, however, for primary teachers because of the broad similarities of content knowledge in both documents and the embedded historical concepts in the NSW syllabus document.

Re-positioning Australia's international education in global knowledge economies : implications of shifts in skilled migration policies for universities

In recent times, many key host nations have made it easier for foreign graduates to migrate after graduation. These students are often considered ideal migrants, possessing local qualifications along with a degree of acculturation, language skills and, in many cases, relevant local work experience. For the student, the opportunity to obtain international work experience adds to the appeal of the overseas study experience and enhances the graduate skills necessary to compete in the global labour market. This paper examines recent changes to migration policy in Australia affecting the post-study work entitlements of international students studying at Australian universities and explores the underlying rationale and consequences of the recent changes in policy direction. An examination of migration policies in the United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Canada indicates that recent changes to skilled migration policy in Australia, along with bleak economic conditions in a number of key host countries, has opened up opportunities for Australia to re-position itself favourably.

How well do predators adjust to climate-mediated shifts in prey distribution? A study on Australian water pythons

Climate change can move the spatial location of resources critical for population viability, and a species' resilience to such changes will depend upon its ability to flexibly shift its activities away from no-longer-suitable sites to exploit new opportunities. Intuition suggests that vagile predators should be able to track spatial shifts in prey availability, but our data on water pythons (Liasis fuscus) in tropical Australia suggest a less encouraging scenario. These pythons undergo regular long-range (to >10 km) seasonal migrations to follow flooding-induced migrations by their prey (native dusky rats, Rattus colletti). However, when an extreme flooding event virtually eliminated rats for a three-year period, the local pythons did not disperse despite the presence of abundant rats only 8 km away; instead, many pythons starved to death. This inflexibility suggests that some vagile species that track seasonally migrating prey may do so by responding to habitat attributes that have consistently predicted prey availability over evolutionary time, rather than reacting to proximate cues that signal the presence of prey per se. A species' vulnerability to climate change will be increased by an inability to shift its activities away from historical sites toward newly favorable areas.

Shifts in thinking and practice: reflecting on an applied learning programme

The implementation of the first iteration of a curriculum for an applied learning programme for police trainers received a hostile response from participants. It was perceived as irrelevant and supplanting, rather than augmenting, trainers’ fixed and untested training practices. This paper presents the reflections on my journey as a nonpolice person straddling an outsider-insider position while challenging that which is taken-for-granted and introducing an educative intent, as opposed to a doctrinal, technical intent, to police training. On a daily basis I simultaneously work within and against the prevailing D/discourses and dominant subcultures, while establishing and nurturing relationships with police trainers: being teacher, coach and ‘critical friend’. The response to the second and now third iterations of the learning programme has been increasingly positive, revealing shifts in trainers’ thinking and practice.

Detecting range shifts among Australian fishes in response to climate change

One of the most obvious and expected impacts of climate change is a shift in the distributional range of organisms, which could have considerable ecological and economic consequences. Australian waters are hotspots for climate-induced environmental changes; here, we review these potential changes and their apparent and potential implications for freshwater, estuarine and marine fish. Our meta-analysis detected 300 papers globally on 'fish' and 'range shifts', with ∼7% being from Australia. Of the Australian papers, only one study exhibited definitive evidence of climate-induced range shifts, with most studies focussing instead on future predictions. There was little consensus in the literature regarding the definition of 'range', largely because of populations having distributions that fluctuate regularly. For example, many marine populations have broad dispersal of offspring (causing vagrancy). Similarly, in freshwater and estuarine systems, regular environmental changes (e.g. seasonal, ENSO cycles not related to climate change) cause expansion and contraction of populations, which confounds efforts to detect range 'shifts'. We found that increases in water temperature, reduced freshwater flows and changes in ocean currents are likely to be the key drivers of climate-induced range shifts in Australian fishes. Although large-scale frequent and rigorous direct surveys of fishes across their entire distributional ranges, especially at range edges, will be essential to detect range shifts of fishes in response to climate change, we suggest careful co-opting of fisheries, museum and other regional databases as a potential, but imperfect alternative. © 2011 CSIRO Open Access.

Associations between firefighters' physical activity across multiple shifts of wildfire suppression

The aim of this study was to examine the associations between firefighters' physical activity levels across consecutive shifts during a multi-day emergency wildfire and to determine whether sleep duration moderated these associations. Forty volunteer firefighters (31 males, 9 females) wore an activity monitor to concurrently measure physical activity and sleep duration. Sedentary time and time spent in light- (LPA), moderate- (MPA), and vigorous-intensity physical activity (VPA) during each shift were determined using monitor-specific cut points. During any given shift, every additional 60 min spent in LPA was associated with 7.2 min more LPA and 27.6 min MPA the following shift. There were no other significant positive or negative associations. No significant moderating effect of total sleep time was observed. Firefighters are able to maintain and/or increase their physical activity intensity between consecutive shifts. Further research is needed to understand firefighters pacing and energy conservation strategies during emergency wildfire deployments. Practitioner Summary To examine associations between firefighters' physical activity levels across consecutive shifts during a multi-day emergency wildfire and determine whether sleep duration moderated these associations. Firefighters are able to maintain and/or increase their physical activity intensity between consecutive shifts. No significant moderating effect of total sleep time was observed.

Sleep quantity and quality is not compromised during planned burn shifts of less than 12 h

Planned burning is a preventative strategy aimed at decreasing fuel loads to reduce the severity of future wildfire events. During planned burn operations, firefighters can work long shifts. Furthermore, remote burning locations may require firefighters to sleep away from home between shifts. The existing evidence surrounding firefighters' sleep during such operations is exclusively anecdotal. The aims of the study were to describe firefighters' sleep during planned burn operations and evaluate the impact of the key operational factors (shift start time, shift length and sleeping location) that may contribute to inadequate sleep. Thirty-three salaried firefighters were recruited from Australia's fire agencies and sleep was measured objectively using wrist actigraphy for four weeks. All variables were examined in two conditions: (1) burn days, and (2) non-burn days. Time in bed, total sleep time, sleep latency and sleep efficiency were evaluated objectively. Subjective reports of pre- and post-sleep fatigue, sleep location, sleep quality, sleep quantity, number of times woken and sleep timing were also recorded. Analyses revealed no differences in measures of sleep quantity and quality when comparing non-burn and burn days. Total sleep time was less when planned burn shifts were >12 h. However, on burn days, work shift start time as well as sleeping location did not impact firefighters' sleep quantity. Self-reported levels of pre- and post-sleep fatigue were greater on burn days compared to non-burn days. These findings indicate that sleep quantity and quality are not compromised during planned burn operations <12 h in duration.