"Information effect" of economic news: SPI futures

The present study investigates the behaviour of Share Price Index (SPI) futures returns, volatility, and trading volume behaviour around the announcement of Current Account Deficit (CAD), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Inflation (CPI). The futures market data are sampled at 1-, 5-, and 10-min intervals at the announcement time. After controlling for risk, a significant positive abnormal return can be earned based on the good news release. However, it is unlikely that traders could make an economic profit by exploiting this effect. In this sense, this futures market returns are found to react efficiently to good news. Volatility behaviour around announcements provides the same conclusion. As for the relationship between returns, volatility, and volume upon information arrival, returns are positively related to trading volume, which is inconsistent with the ‘short sales constraint’ theory. Trading volume is found to increase as the level of volatility rises. The redenomination of the SPI futures and options contract from A$100 to A$25 per basis point is found to increase trading volume in excess of that expected due to the redenomination. However, market return and volatility are unaffected by the redenomination.

An empirical investigation of the relationship between government revenue and expenditure : the case of the Fiji Islands

Purpose – Understanding the relationship between government revenue and government expenditure is important from a policy point of view, especially for a country like Fiji, which is suffering from persistent budget deficits. The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government revenue and expenditure for Fiji.

Design/methodology/approach – The Johansen test for cointegration and Granger causality test are used to conduct the empirical analysis.

Findings – The key findings are that: government revenue and government expenditure in both the aggregate and disaggregate sense are cointegrated; in the short-run government expenditure Granger causes government revenue in an aggregate sense, departmental expenditure Granger causes aggregate revenue, and there is bidirectional causality running between government expenditure and customs duties; and in the long-run there is evidence of fiscal synchronization, implying that expenditure decisions are not made in isolation from revenue decisions.

Research limitations/implications – This fiscal synchronization has not been able curb the current account deficit in Fiji. Moreover, the confirmation of the spend-tax attitude of the government does not bode well for the level of investments and skilled human capital in Fiji as this may perpetuate tax increases in the future. Given that the Fiji Government is currently trying to rein in the escalating level of fiscal deficit, it is an opportune time for them to engage in extensive expenditure reforms.

Originality/value – The findings of this paper should allow policy makers to make informed decisions. Furthermore, the paper is different from others because apart from examining the revenue and expenditure in an aggregate sense, it also considers the different components of revenue and expenditure.

Has international trade in saving improved US economic welfare?

Over the past decade international policy-makers have perceived the current account deficit of the world's largest foreign borrower economy, the United States, as a threat to global economic and financial stability. Yet, by bridging the US domestic saving-investment gap, capital inflow that matched the huge US current account deficit also enabled a faster rate of domestic capital accumulation than home saving alone would have permitted. Consistent with the theory of international capital movements, this study identifies and compares the respective contributions of domestic and foreign saving to US gross domestic product per worker over the two decades prior to the onset of the US banking crisis. By revealing that foreign borrowing contributed significantly to raising US output and hence living standards over this period, it adds a new dimension to the debate about global imbalances.

Have US external imbalances been determined at home or abroad?

This paper examines the relationship between the United States saving–investment imbalance and long-term real interest rates using a new international borrowing and lending framework. It first establishes how domestic or international factors may primarily influence the US external imbalance and interest rates over any given time before showing that the current account and real long term interest rate share a positive and statistically significant co-integrating relationship based on data from the mid-1980's. The results suggest that while in the pre-Asian financial crisis period (1985:01–1996:04) US external deficits and long term interest rates were mainly determined by domestic factors, external factors beyond the control of domestic policymakers dominated from 1997:01–2004:04.

Forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, 2003-2020

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to forecast Fiji's exports and imports for the period 2003-2020.

Design/methodology/approach – To achieve the goal of this paper, the autoregressive moving average with explanatory variables (ARMAX) model was applied. To this end, the paper drew on the published export demand model and the import demand model of Narayan and Narayan for Fiji.

Findings – The paper's main findings are: Fiji's imports will outperform exports over the 2003-2020 period; and current account deficits will escalate to be around F$934.4 million on average over the 2003-2020 period.

Originality/value – Exports and imports are crucial for macroeconomic policymaking. It measures the degree of openness of a country and it signals the trade balance and current account balances. This has implications for inflation and exchange rate. By forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, the paper provides policy makers with a set of information that will be useful for devising macroeconomic policies.

Savings behaviour in Fiji : an empirical assessment using the ARDL approach to cointegration

Purpose – This paper aims to delineate the short- and long-run relationships between savings, real interest rate, income, current account deficits (CADs) and age dependency ratio in Fiji using cointegration and error correction models over the period 1968-2000.

Design/methodology/approach – The recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration is used, which is applicable irrespective of whether the underlying variables are integrated of order one or order zero. Given the small sample size in this study, appropriate critical values were extracted from Narayan. To estimate the short- and long-run elasticities, the autoregressive distributed-lag model is used.

Findings – In the short- and long-run: a 1 per cent increase in growth rate increases savings by over 0.07 and 0.5 per cent, respectively; a 1 per cent increase in the CAD reduces savings rate by 0.01 and 0.02 per cent, respectively; and the negative coefficient on the real interest rate implies that the income effect dominates the substitution effect, while in the short-run the total effect of the real interest rate is positive, implying that the substitution effect dominates the income effect.

Originality/value – This paper makes the first attempt at estimating the savings function for the Fiji Islands. Given that Fiji's capital market is poorly developed, the empirical findings here have direct policy relevance.

An empirical investigation of the determinants of Oman's national savings

In this note we examine the determinants of Oman's national savings for the period 1977-2003 using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. We use the ARDL model to estimate the long run and short run determinants of national savings. Our main finding is that the current account, the urbanisation rate and the money supply exert statistically significant impacts on Oman''s national savings in the long run.

Testing for panel cointegration with multiple structural breaks

This paper proposes a Lagrange multiplier (LM) test for the null hypothesis of cointegration that allows for the possibility of multiple structural breaks in both the level and trend of a cointegrated panel regression. The test is general enough to allow for endogenous regressors, serial correlation and an unknown number of breaks that may be located at different dates for different individuals. We derive the limiting distribution of the test and conduct a small Monte Carlo study to investigate its finite sample properties. In our empirical application to the solvency of the current account, we find evidence of cointegration between saving and investment once a level break is accommodated. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2006.

The diagnosis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in Australian children: current paediatric practice and parent perspective

Aims In a sample of newly diagnosed children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), the aims were to examine (1) paediatrician assessment and management practices; (2) previous assessments and interventions; (3) correspondence between parent-report and paediatrician identification of comorbidities; and (4) parent agreement with diagnosis of ADHD. Methods Design: cross-sectional, multi-site practice audit with questionnaires completed by paediatricians and parents at the point of ADHD diagnosis. Setting: private/public paediatric practices in Western Australia and Victoria, Australia. Main outcome measures: paediatricians: elements of assessment and management were indicated on a study-designed data form. Parents: ADHD symptoms and comorbidities were measured using the Conners 3 ADHD Index and Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, respectively. Sleep problems, previous assessments and interventions, and agreement with ADHD diagnosis were measured by questionnaire. Results Twenty-four paediatricians participated, providing data on 137 patients (77% men, mean age 8.1 years). Parent and teacher questionnaires were used in 88% and 85% of assessments, respectively. Medication was prescribed in 75% of cases. Comorbidities were commonly diagnosed (70%); however, the proportion of patients identified by paediatricians with internalising problems (18%), externalising problems (15%) and sleep problems (4%) was less than by parent report (51%, 66% and 39%). One in seven parents did not agree with the diagnosis of ADHD. Conclusions Australian paediatric practice in relation to ADHD assessment is generally consistent with best practice guidelines; however, improvements are needed in relation to the routine use of questionnaires and the identification of comorbidities. A proportion of parents do not agree with the diagnosis of ADHD made by their paediatrician.

Cost-effectiveness of dexamphetamine and methylphenidate for the treatment of childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Objective: To analyze from a health sector perspective the cost-effectiveness of dexamphetamine (DEX) and methylphenidate (MPH) interventions to treat childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), compared to current practice.

Method: Children eligible for the interventions are those aged between 4 and 17 years in 2000, who had ADHD and were seeking care for emotional or behavioural problems, but were not receiving stimulant medication. To determine health benefit, a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials was performed for DEX and MPH, and the effect sizes were translated into utility values. An assessment on second stage filter criteria ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Simulation modelling techniques are used to present a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the incremental costeffectiveness ratio (ICER), which is calculated in cost (in A$) per DALY averted.

Results: The ICER for DEX is A$4100/DALY saved (95% UI: negative to A$14 000) and for MPH is A$15 000/DALY saved (95% UI: A$9100-22 000). DEX is more costly than MPH for the government, but much less costly for the patient.

Conclusions: MPH and DEX are cost-effective interventions for childhood ADHD. DEX is more cost-effective than MPH, although if MPH were listed at a lower price on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme it would become more cost-effective. Increased uptake of stimulants for ADHD would require policy change. However, the medication of children and wider availability of stimulants may concern parents and the community.

Barriers to indigenous education and educational research reform in Australia

Across all Indigenous education sectors in Australia there continues to be extensive debate about the appropriateness of proposed assessment criteria, curriculum content, language of instruction, pedagogical approaches, research practices and institutional structures. Until relatively recently, policy initiatives targeting these issues have been developed and implemented separately and without reference to the interrelated nature of the barriers that confront Indigenous peoples in their attempts to challenge mainstream educational and research practices that potentially marginalise their individual and collective interests. Increasingly, these issues are being linked under the banner of 'Indigenous education reform', and the potential for collective Indigenous community action is being realised. The current Indigenous education reform process in Australia is concerned with reversing the trend associated with patterns of academic underachievement by Indigenous students in the nation's school systems. Concurrently, reforms in the area of Indigenous education research are concerned with achieving fundamental changes to the way Indigenous education research is initiated, constructed and practised. Mainstream institutions. Indigenous peoples and non-Indigenous peoples have different interests in the outcome of the resolution processes associated with proposals to reform Indigenous education and research practices. It is through investigation of stakeholder positioning in relation to key issues, and through reference to stakeholder interests in the outcome of negotiated resolutions, that a critical approach to analysing Indigenous education and research reform initiatives can be achieved. The three case studies contained within this portfolio represent an attempt to investigate the patterns of contestation associated with the delivery of primary school education for Aboriginal students in the Northern Territory and the problems associated with implementing reformed Indigenous education research guidelines. This research has revealed pervasive mainstream community and institutional support for assimilatory policies and a related lack of support for policies of Indigenous community 'self-determination1. This implies insufficient support within the Nation-State for Indigenous proposals for education and research reforms that legitimise the incorporation of Indigenous languages and cultural knowledge and that aim to re-position Indigenous peoples as central to the construction and delivery of education and educational research within their own communities. Common barriers to the implementation of reformed institutional structures and educational and research practices have been identified across each of the three case studies. The analysis of these common barriers points to a generalised statement about the nature of the resistance by mainstream Australians and their institutions to Indigenous community proposals for educational and research reforms. This research identifies key barriers to Indigenous Australian education and research reforms as being: Resurgent mainstream community and institutional support for assimilatory policies implies a lack of support for increasing the level of Indigenous community involvement in the construction and delivery of education and educational research; Mainstream institutional commitment to the principles of economic rationalism and the incorporation of corporate managerialist approaches reduces the potential for Indigenous community involvement in the setting of educational and research objectives; The education and social policy agendas of recent Australian governments are geared toward the achievement of national economic growth and the strengthening of Australia's position in the global economy. As a direct result, the unique cultural identities and linguistic heritages of Indigenous peoples in Australia are marginalised; Identified 'disempowenng' attitudes and practices of educators, researchers and institutional representatives continue to impact negatively upon the educational outcomes of Indigenous students; Insufficient institutional support for the development of mechanisms to ensure Indigenous community control over all aspects of the research project continues to impede the successful negotiation of research in Indigenous community contexts; The promotion of 'deficit' educational approaches for Indigenous students reinforces the marginalisation of their existing linguistic and cultural knowledge bases; The relationship between Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples in Australia continues to be constrained by the philanthropically based 'donor-recipient' model of service delivery. The framing of Indigenous peoples as recipients of mainstream community benevolence has ongoing disempowering and negative consequences; Currently proposed national Indigenous education policies and programmes for the implementation of these polices do not adequately take into account the diversity in linguistic, political, cultural and social interests of Indigenous peoples in Australia; Widespread 'institutional racism' within mainstream educational institutions perpetuates the disadvantage experienced by Indigenous students and Indigenous community members who aim to derive benefit from education and educational research.

Assessing cost-effectiveness in mental health: helping policy-makers prioritize and plan health services

Objective: We assessed, from a health sector perspective, options for change that could improve the efficiency of Australia's current mental health services by directing available resources toward 'best practice' cost-effective services.

Method: We summarize cost-effectiveness results of a range of interventions for depression, schizophrenia, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and anxiety disorders that have been presented in previous papers in this journal. Recommendations for change are formulated after taking into account 'second-filter criteria' of equity, feasibility of implementing change, acceptability to stakeholders and the strength of the evidence. In addition, we estimate the impact on total expenditure if the recommended mental health interventions for depression and schizophrenia are to be implemented in Australia.

Results: There are cost-effective treatment options for mental disorders that are currently underutilized (e.g. cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) for depression and anxiety, bibliotherapy for depression, family interventions for schizophrenia and clozapine for the worst course of schizophrenia). There are also less cost-effective treatments in current practice (e.g. widespread use of olanzapine and risperidone in the treatment of established schizophrenia and, within those atypicals, a preference for olanzapine over risperidone). Feasibility of funding mechanisms and training of staff are the main second-filter issues for CBT and family interventions. Acceptability to various stakeholders is the main barrier to implementation of more cost-effective drug treatment regimens. More efficient drug intervention options identified for schizophrenia would cost A$68 million less than current practice. These savings would more than cover the estimated A$36M annual cost of delivering family interventions to the 51% of people with schizophrenia whom we estimated to be eligible and this would lead to an estimated 12% improvement in their health status. Implementing recommended strategies for depression would cost A$121M annually for the 24% of people with depression who seek care currently, but do not receive an evidence-based treatment.

Conclusions: Despite considerable methodological problems, a range of cost-effective and less cost-effective interventions for major mental disorders can be discerned. The biggest hurdle to implementation of more efficient mental health services is that this change would require reallocation of funds between interventions, between disorders and between service providers with different funding mechanisms.

Preschoolers' body-knowledge inaccuracy: perceptual self-deficit and attitudinal bias

Body image research with young children has typically examined their body satisfaction and overlooked developmental theories pertaining to their emergent body-knowledge. Though existing research suggests that preschoolers do demonstrate anti-fat attitudes and weight-related stigmatisation, body dissatisfaction can be difficult to assess in preschoolers due to developmental differences in their (i) ability to perceive their actual body size accurately and (ii) make comparisons with a hypothetical ideal. We review current findings on the attitudinal component of body image in preschoolers, together with findings on the accuracy of their body size perceptions and their emergent body awareness abilities. Such an integration of the cognitive development literature is key to identifying when and how young children understand their physical size and shape; this in turn is critical for informing methodological design targeted at assessing body dissatisfaction and anti-fat attitudes in early childhood.

Analysis of lightning current characteristics to investigate lightning strike damages to energy pipeline

Australia is one of the most lightning prone area on earth. Lightning strikes have been identified as one of the most common cause of energy pipeline damage in Australia. Therefore, a suitable protection schemes and mitigation strategies against lighting strike damage is very important for Australian pipeline industry. There are a number of research on lighting protection of establishment such as, power systems, buildings, and telecommunications systems, however, very few publications could be found which discuss about protection of pipeline from lightning strike. Assessment of effects in buried pipeline, due to lighting strikes is important. Existing models do not account adequately the effect of the characteristics of soil breakdown channels intercepted by the buried object. This paper aims to investigate the characteristics of lightning current on metal object under the soil of strike point so that lighting attachment to energy pipeline could be understand and a protection technique could be developed. Along with lightning current characteristics, lightning attachment process, distribution method, soil resistivity, propagation of lightning current in soil with a buried pipeline, pipeline electrical properties and other related areas and technologies is explored. The study shows that though there are some research on characteristics of induced on simple buried structures like narrow telephone cable or residential gas pipe, but no substantial research have been done on large comparatively complex structures like buried energy pipelines. Also dynamic behavior of soil and the object to be protected not been considered in protections schemes and experiments.