Dynamic currency hedging for international stock portfolios

The paper studies dynamic currency risk hedging of international stock portfolios using a currency overlay. A dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH model is employed to estimate time-varying covariance among stock market returns and currency returns. The conditional covariance is then used in the estimation of risk-minimizing conditional hedge ratios. The study considers seven developed economies over the period January 2002 to April 2010 and estimates daily conditional hedge ratios for portfolios of various stock market combinations. Conditional hedging is shown to dominate traditional static hedging and unconditional hedging in terms of risk reduction both in-sample and out-of-sample, especially during the recent global financial crisis. Conditional hedging also proves to consistently reduce portfolio risk for various levels of foreign investments.

Formation of cortical plasticity in older adults following tDCS and motor training

Neurodegeneration accompanies the process of natural aging, reducing the ability to perform functional daily activities. Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) alters neuronal excitability and motor performance; however its beneficial effect on the induction of primary motor cortex (M1) plasticity in older adults is unclear. Moreover, little is known as to whether the tDCS electrode arrangement differentially affects M1 plasticity and motor performance in this population. In a double-blinded, cross-over trial, we compared unilateral, bilateral and sham tDCS combined with visuomotor tracking, on M1 plasticity and motor performance of the non-dominant upper limb, immediately post and 30 min following stimulation. We found (a) unilateral and bilateral tDCS decreased tracking error by 12–22% at both time points; with sham decreasing tracking error by 10% at 30 min only, (b) at both time points, motor evoked potentials (MEPs) were facilitated (38–54%) and short-interval intracortical inhibition was released (21–36%) for unilateral and bilateral conditions relative to sham, (c) there were no differences between unilateral and bilateral conditions for any measure. These findings suggest that tDCS modulated elements of M1 plasticity, which improved motor performance irrespective of the electrode arrangement. The results provide preliminary evidence indicating that tDCS is a safe non-invasive tool to preserve or improve neurological function and motor control in older adults.

A new method for deriving priority weights by extracting consistent numerical-valued matrices from interval-valued fuzzy judgement matrix

It is important to derive priority weights from interval-valued fuzzy preferences when a pairwise comparative mechanism is used. By focusing on the significance of consistency in the pairwise comparison matrix, two numerical-valued consistent comparison matrices are extracted from an interval fuzzy judgement matrix. Both consistent matrices are derived by solving the linear or nonlinear programming models with the aid of assessments from Decision Makers (DMs). An interval priority weight vector from the extracted consistent matrices is generated. In order to retain more information hidden in the intervals, a new probability-based method for comparison of the interval priority weights is introduced. An algorithm for deriving the final priority interval weights for both consistent and inconsistent interval matrices is proposed. The algorithm is also generalized to handle the pairwise comparison matrix with fuzzy numbers. The comparative results from the five examples reveal that the proposed method, as compared with eight existing methods, exhibits a smaller degree of uncertainty pertaining to the priority weights, and is also more reliable based on the similarity measure. © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of topographic variation and the fire regime on coarse woody debris: insights from a large wildfire

Coarse woody debris (CWD) is a common structural component of terrestrial ecosystems, and provides important habitat for biota. Fires modify the distribution of CWD, both spatially and temporally. Changes in fire regimes, such as those arising from prescribed burning and changing climatic conditions, make it critical to understand the response of this resource to fire. We created a conceptual model of the effects of fire on logs and dead trees in topographically diverse forests in which trees often survive severe fire. We then surveyed paired sites, in a damp gully and adjacent drier slope, ~3.5. years after a large wildfire in south-eastern Australia. Sites were stratified by fire severity (unburnt, understorey burnt and severely burnt), and fire history (burnt ≤3. years or ≥20. years prior to the wildfire). Both components of the fire regime influenced CWD availability in gullies. Severe wildfire and fire history ≤3. years reduced the volume of small logs (10-30. cm diameter) in gullies, while severe wildfire increased the number of large dead trees in gullies. CWD on slopes was not affected by fire severity or history at ~3.5. years post-fire. Log volumes on slopes may recover more quickly after wildfire through rapid collapse of branches and trees. Gullies generally supported more logs than slopes, but longer inter-fire intervals in gullies may allow fuel loads to accumulate and lead to comparatively larger fire impacts. Given that fire severity and fire interval are predicted to change in many fire-prone ecosystems in coming decades, this study highlights the importance of understanding the interacting effects of multiple components of the fire regime with landscape structure. In particular, variation in fire interval and fire severity in relation to topographic position will influence the pattern of accumulation of coarse woody debris across the landscape, and therefore the structure and quality of habitats for biota.

Modeling, parameter measurement and sensorless speed estimation of IPM synchronous generator for direct drive variable speed wind turbine application

This paper presents simple methods of determining parameters of interior permanent magnet (IPM) synchronous generator such as magnet flux (λM), d-axis inductance (Ld) and q-axis inductance (Lq) of IPM synchronous generator, which are used to control the wind turbine generator. These methods are simple and do not require any complex theory, signal injection or special equipment. Moreover, a sensorless speed estimator is proposed to estimate the speed of the generator without using speed sensor. The measured parameters are used in this speed estimator. The elimination of speed sensor will enhance the system robustness and reduce the design complexity and system cost for a small-scale wind turbine considered in this paper. The effectiveness of parameter measurement methods and sensorless speed estimator is demonstrated by experimental results. Experimental results show that the proposed speed estimator that uses the measured parameters can estimate the generator speed with a small error.

Bihemispheric-tDCS and upper limb rehabilitation improves retention of motor function in chronic stroke: A pilot study

Background: Single sessions of bihemispheric transcranial direct-current stimulation (bihemispheric-tDCS) with concurrent rehabilitation improves motor function in stroke survivors, which outlasts the stimulation period. However few studies have investigated the behavioral and neurophysiological adaptations following a multi-session intervention of bihemispheric-tDCS concurrent with rehabilitation. Objective: This pilot study explored the immediate and lasting effects of 3-weeks of bihemispheric-tDCS and upper limb (UL) rehabilitation on motor function and corticospinal plasticity in chronic stroke survivors. Methods: Fifteen chronic stroke survivors underwent 3-weeks of UL rehabilitation with sham or real bihemispheric-tDCS. UL motor function was assessed via the Motor Assessment Scale (MAS), Tardieu Scale and grip strength. Corticospinal plasticity was indexed by motor evoked potentials (MEPs), cortical silent period (CSP) and short-interval intracortical inhibition (SICI) recorded from the paretic and non-paretic ULs, using transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS). Measures were taken at baseline, 48 h post and 3-weeks following (follow-up) the intervention. Results: MAS improved following both real-tDCS (62%) and sham-tDCS (43%, P < 0.001), however at 3-weeks follow-up, the real-tDCS condition retained these newly regained motor skills to a greater degree than sham-tDCS (real-tDCS 64%, sham-tDCS 21%, P = 0.002). MEP amplitudes from the paretic UL increased for real-tDCS (46%: P < 0.001) and were maintained at 3-weeks follow-up (38%: P = 0.03), whereas no changes were observed with sham-tDCS. No changes in MEPs from the non-paretic nor SICI from the paretic UL were observed for either group. SICI from the non-paretic UL was greater at follow-up, for real-tDCS (27%: P = 0.04). CSP from the non-paretic UL increased by 33% following the intervention for real-tDCS compared with sham-tDCS (P = 0.04), which was maintained at 3-weeks follow-up (24%: P = 0.04). Conclusion: bihemispheric-tDCS improved retention of gains in motor function, which appears to be modulated through intracortical inhibitory pathways in the contralesional primary motor cortex (M1). The findings provide preliminary evidence for the benefits of bihemispheric-tDCS during rehabilitation. Larger clinical trials are warranted to examine long term benefits of bihemispheric-tDCS in a stroke affected population.

Monitoring and accountability for the Pacific response to the non-communicable diseases crisis

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCD) are the leading cause of premature death and disability in the Pacific. In 2011, Pacific Forum Leaders declared "a human, social and economic crisis" due to the significant and growing burden of NCDs in the region. In 2013, Pacific Health Ministers' commitment to 'whole of government' strategy prompted calls for the development of a robust, sustainable, collaborative NCD monitoring and accountability system to track, review and propose remedial action to ensure progress towards the NCD goals and targets. The purpose of this paper is to describe a regional, collaborative framework for coordination, innovation and application of NCD monitoring activities at scale, and to show how they can strengthen accountability for action on NCDs in the Pacific. A key component is the Dashboard for NCD Action which aims to strengthen mutual accountability by demonstrating national and regional progress towards agreed NCD policies and actions.

DISCUSSION: The framework for the Pacific Monitoring Alliance for NCD Action (MANA) draws together core country-level components of NCD monitoring data (mortality, morbidity, risk factors, health system responses, environments, and policies) and identifies key cross-cutting issues for strengthening national and regional monitoring systems. These include: capacity building; a regional knowledge exchange hub; innovations (monitoring childhood obesity and food environments); and a robust regional accountability system. The MANA framework is governed by the Heads of Health and operationalised by a multi-agency technical Coordination Team. Alliance membership is voluntary and non-conditional, and aims to support the 22 Pacific Island countries and territories to improve the quality of NCD monitoring data across the region. In establishing a common vision for NCD monitoring, the framework combines data collected under the WHO Global Framework for NCDs with a set of action-orientated indicators captured in a NCD Dashboard for Action.

SUMMARY : Viewing NCD monitoring as a multi-component system and providing a robust, transparent mutual accountability mechanism helps align agendas, roles and responsibilities of countries and support organisations. The dashboard provides a succinct communication tool for reporting progress on implementation of agreed policies and actions and its flexible methodology can be easily expanded, or adapted for other regions.

Children's memory of recurring events: is the first event always the best remembered?

Three experiments were conducted to examine the effect of age (4-5 and 6-8 years) and retention interval on children's ability to remember separate occurrences of a repeated event that varied in terms of content (items, dialog, etc.) Experiment 1 explored children's ability to recall the first versus last occurrence of a series of six events, at either one week or six weeks delay. Experiments 2 and 3 explored children's ability to identify the position of items in terms of their order of presentation within the series across two retention intervals. Overall, the results revealed clear age differences in children's performance. In general, the 6- to 8-year+old children performed better on all tasks than the 4- to 5-year-old children. Further, the older children showed relatively good memory of the first and last items compared to the middle items, although the last items were more likely to be forgotten or misplaced in the sequencing tasks over time that the first items. For the younger children, the patterns of results were sometimes but not always consistent with that of the older children The relevance and generalisability of these findings to the legal setting are discussed as well as directions for future research.

T-OSN : a trust evaluation model in online social networks

Now days, the online social networks (OSN) have gained considerable popularity. More and more people use OSN to share their interests and make friends, also the OSN helps users overcome the geographical barriers. With the development of OSN, there is an important problem users have to face that is trust evaluation. Before user makes friends with a stranger, the user need to consider the following issues: Can a stranger be trusted? How much the stranger can be trusted? How to measure the trust of a stranger? In this paper, we take two factors, Degree and Contact Interval into consideration, which produce a new trust evaluation model (T-OSN). T-OSN is aimed to solve how to evaluate the trust value of an OSN user, also which is more efficient, more reliable and easy to implement. Base on our research, this model can be used in wide range, such as online social network (OSN) trust evaluation, mobile network message forwarding, ad hoc wireless networking, routing message on Internet and peer-to-peer file sharing network. The T-OSN model has following obvious advantages compare to other trust evaluate methods. First of all, it is not base on features of traditional social network, such as, distance and shortest path. We choose the special features of OSN to build up the model, that is including numbers of friends(Degree) and contact frequency(Contact Interval). These species features makes our model more suitable to evaluate OSN users trust value. Second, the formulations of our model are quite simple but effective. That means, to calculate the result by using our formulations will not cost too much resources. Last but not least, our model is easy to implement for an OSN website, because of the features that we used in our model, such as numbers of friends and contact frequency are easy to obtain. To sum up, our model is using a few resources to obtain a valuable trust value that can help OSN users to solve an important security problem, we believe that will be big step - or development of OSN.

Terminal sliding mode control strategy design for second-order nonlinear system

This study mainly focuses on the terminal sliding mode control (TSMC) strategy design, including an adaptive terminal sliding mode control (ATSMC) and an exact-estimator-based terminal sliding mode control (ETSMC) for second-order nonlinear dynamical systems. In the ATSMC system, an adaptive bound estimation for the lump uncertainty is proposed to ensure the system stability. On the other hand, an exact estimator is designed for exact estimating system uncertainties to solve the trouble of chattering phenomena caused by a sign function in ATSMC law in despite of the utilization of a fixed value or an adaptive tuning algorithm for the lumped uncertainty bound. The effectiveness of the proposed control schemes can be verified in numerical simulations.

Different current intensities of anodal transcranial direct current stimulation do not differentially modulate motor cortex plasticity

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a noninvasive technique that modulates the excitability of neurons within the motor cortex (M1). Although the aftereffects of anodal tDCS on modulating cortical excitability have been described, there is limited data describing the outcomes of different tDCS intensities on intracortical circuits. To further elucidate the mechanisms underlying the aftereffects of M1 excitability following anodal tDCS, we used transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to examine the effect of different intensities on cortical excitability and short-interval intracortical inhibition (SICI). Using a randomized, counterbalanced, crossover design, with a one-week wash-out period, 14 participants (6 females and 8 males, 22–45 years) were exposed to 10 minutes of anodal tDCS at 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2 mA. TMS was used to measure M1 excitability and SICI of the contralateral wrist extensor muscle at baseline, immediately after and 15 and 30 minutes following cessation of anodal tDCS. Cortical excitability increased, whilst SICI was reduced at all time points following anodal tDCS. Interestingly, there were no differences between the three intensities of anodal tDCS on modulating cortical excitability or SICI. These results suggest that the aftereffect of anodal tDCS on facilitating cortical excitability is due to the modulation of synaptic mechanisms associated with long-term potentiation and is not influenced by different tDCS intensities.

Observer-based control for time-varying delay neural networks with nonlinear observation

This paper studies the problem of designing observer-based controllers for a class of delayed neural networks with nonlinear observation. The system under consideration is subject to nonlinear observation and an interval time-varying delay. The nonlinear observation output is any nonlinear Lipschitzian function and the time-varying delay is not required to be differentiable nor its lower bound be zero. By constructing a set of appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals and utilizing the Newton-Leibniz formula, some delay-dependent stabilizability conditions which are expressed in terms of Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs) are derived. The derived conditions allow simultaneous computation of two bounds that characterize the exponential stability rate of the closed-loop system. The unknown observer gain and the state feedback observer-based controller are directly obtained upon the feasibility of the derived LMIs stabilizability conditions. A simulation example is presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed result.

The long term effects of sports concussion on retired Australian football players: a study using Transranial Magnetic Stimulation

This study investigated corticomotor excitability and inhibition, cognitive functioning, and fine motor dexterity in retired elite and amateur Australian football (AF) players who had sustained concussions during their playing careers. Forty male AF players who played at the elite level (n=20; mean age 49.7±5.7 years) or amateur level (n=20; mean age 48.4±6.9 years), and had sustained on average 3.2 concussions 21.9 years previously, were compared with 20 healthy age-matched male controls (mean age 47.56±6.85 years). All participants completed assessments of fine dexterity, visuomotor reaction time, spatial working memory (SWM), and associative learning (AL). Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) was used to measure corticospinal excitability: stimulus-response (SR) curves and motor evoked potential (MEP) 125% of active motor threshold (aMT); and intracortical inhibition: cortical silent period (cSP), short-interval intracortical inhibition (SICI), and long-interval intracortical inhibition (LICI). Healthy participants performed better in dexterity (p=0.003), reaction (p=0.003), and movement time (p=0.037) than did both AF groups. Differences between AF groups were found in AL (p=0.027) and SWM (p=0.024). TMS measures revealed that both AF groups showed reduced cSP duration at 125% aMT (p>0.001) and differences in SR curves (p>0.001) than did healthy controls. Similarly, SICI (p=0.012) and LICI (p=0.009) were reduced in both AF groups compared with controls. Regression analyses revealed a significant contribution to differences in motor outcomes with the three measures of intracortical inhibition. The measures of inhibition differed, however, in terms of which performance measure they had a significant and unique predictive relationship with, reflecting the variety of participant concussion injuries. This study is the first to demonstrate differences in motor control and intracortical inhibition in AF players who had sustained concussions during their playing career two decades previously.

Effects of vitamin D supplementation on neuroplasticity in older adults: a double-blinded, placebo-controlled randomised trial

Summary - Vitamin D can improve muscle function and reduce falls, but whether it can strengthen neural connections within the brain and nervous system is not known. This 10-week randomised controlled trial indicates that treatment with 2,000 IU/day vitamin D3 does not significantly alter neuroplasticity relative to placebo in older adults.
Introduction - The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of vitamin D supplementation on neuroplasticity, serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and muscle strength and function in older adults.
Methods - This was a 10-week double-blinded, placebo-controlled randomised trial in which 26 older adults with 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25OHD] concentrations 25–60 nmol/L were randomised to 2,000 IU/day vitamin D3 or matched placebo. Single- and paired-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation applied over the motor cortex was used to assess changes in motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) and short-interval intracortical inhibition (SICI), as measures of corticospinal excitability and inhibition respectively, by recording electromyography (EMG) responses to stimulation from the wrist extensors. Changes in muscle strength, stair climbing power, gait (timed-up-and-go), dynamic balance (four square step test), serum 25(OH)D and BDNF concentrations were also measured.
Results - After 10 weeks, mean 25(OH)D levels increased from 46 to 81 nmol/L in the vitamin D group with no change in the placebo group. The vitamin D group experienced a significant 8–11 % increase in muscle strength and a reduction in cortical excitability (MEP amplitude) and SICI relative to baseline (all P < 0.05), but these changes were not significantly different from placebo. There was no effect of vitamin D on muscle power, function or BDNF.
Conclusions - Daily supplementation with 2,000 IU vitamin D3 for 10 weeks had no significant effect on neuroplasticity compared to placebo, but the finding that vitamin D treatment alone was associated with a decrease in corticospinal excitability and intracortical inhibition warrants further investigation as this suggests that it may improve the efficacy of neural transmission within the corticospinal pathway.

The effects of anodal-tDCS on cross-limb transfer in older adults

OBJECTIVE: Age-related neurodegeneration may interfere with the ability to respond to cross-limb transfer, whereby bilateral performance improvements accompany unilateral practice. We investigated whether transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) would facilitate this phenomena in older adults. METHODS: 12 young and 12 older adults underwent unilateral visuomotor tracking (VT), with anodal or sham-tDCS over the ipsilateral motor cortex. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) assessed motor evoked potentials (MEPs) and short interval intracortical inhibition (SICI). Performance was quantified through a VT error. Variables were assessed bilaterally at baseline and post-intervention. RESULTS: The trained limb improved performance, facilitated MEPs and released SICI in both age groups. In the untrained limb, VT improved in young for both sham and anodal-tDCS conditions, but only following anodal-tDCS for the older adults. MEPs increased in all conditions, except the older adult's receiving sham. SICI was released in both tDCS conditions for young and old. CONCLUSION: Following a VT task, older adults still display use-dependent plasticity. Although no significant age-related differences between the outcome measures, older adults exhibited significant cross-limb transfer of performance following anodal-tDCS, which was otherwise absent following motor practice alone. SIGNIFICANCE: These findings provide clinical implications for conditions restricting the use of one limb, such as stroke.