Patterns of coronary heart disease mortality over the 20th century in England and Wales : possible plateaus in the rate of decline

Background
Coronary heart disease (CHD) rates in England and Wales between 1950 and 2005 were high and reasonably steady until the mid 1970s, when they began to fall. Recent work suggests that the rate of change in some groups has begun to decrease and may be starting to plateau or even reverse.

Methods
Data for all deaths between 1931 and 2005 in England and Wales were grouped by year, sex, age at death and contemporaneous ICD code for CHD as cause of death. CHD mortality rates by calendar year and birth cohort were produced for both sexes and rates of change were examined.

Results
The pattern of increased burden of CHD mortality within older age groups has only recently emerged in men, whereas it has been established in women for far longer. CHD mortality rates among younger people showed little variation by birth cohort. For younger women (49 and under), the rate of change in CHD mortality has reversed in the last 20 years, indicating a future plateau and possible reversal of previous improvement in CHD mortality rates. Among younger men the rate of change in CHD mortality has been consistent for the past 15 years indicating that rates in this group have continued to fall steadily.

Conclusion
Although CHD mortality rates continue to drop in older age groups the actual burden of coronary heart disease is increasing due to the ageing of the population. The rate of improvement in CHD mortality appears to be beginning to decline and may even be reversing among younger women.

Relationship of body condition score, live weight, stocking rate and grazing system to the mortality of Angora goats from hypothermia and their use in the assessment of welfare risks

Body condition scoring is widely used for sheep and cattle but the practice is included in only one Code of Practice for the welfare of goats in Australia. There is no published scientific evidence to support or defend its use in the assessment of welfare risks to farmed goats.

PROCEDURE: The significance of stocking rate, grazing system, body condition score (CS) and live weight were investigated in explaining the risk of mortality of individual and flocks of grazing Angora goats from hypothermia following a severe weather event in April. This event occurred 5 weeks after shearing the goats. Angora goats and Saxon Merino sheep were grazed alone, or mixed together in equal numbers at each of three stocking rates.

RESULTS: There was no mortality amongst Angora goats provided they grazed at the lowest stocking rate even when their CS was < or = 2.0. Mortality in flocks of Angora goats was most related to the CS reached during the preceding 2 months. For flocks of Angora goats there was no mortality at CS > or = 2.5 and mortality increased sharply at mean CS < 2.0. For individual Angora goats, mortality increased as CS declined and stocking rate and grazing combinations were additive in effect on mortality. Grazing with sheep increased mortality of Angora goats at higher stocking rates. The individual goat mortality rate was not dependent on individual plot effects suggesting that these results are applicable widely. Live weight loss was not related to mortality rates of goats once CS had been accounted for.
CONCLUSION: It was concluded that CS and stocking rate were highly significant determinants of welfare risk in Angora goats.