Design with nature : a proposed model for coastal settlements in Australia adapting to climate change and extreme weather events

The Australian coast is rich in history and is scattered with coastal settlements amongst a contrasting landscape with infinite visual and ecological diversity. These attributes provide the opportunity to create sustainable and resilient settlements, linking the wholeness of a place to the foundation of living in harmony with nature. On the contrary the coastal regions of Australia are facing dynamic changes of population growth including the looming impact of a changing climate. Acknowledging these challenges, the Australian Government highlighted that one of the key requirements for a sustainable future is to establish sustainable settlements that are resilient against the impacts of climate change. Recent government studies and reports highlighted various possible impacts to the Australian coast and regional settlements due to sea level rise with associated coastal recession, extreme weather events, flooding, and prolonged heat waves. Various adaptation frameworks are proposed to deal with this issue, but very few consider the relationship between ecological systems and human built environments. The resilience planning of settlements must consider the co-evolution of human and nature under future climate effects. This paper is thus seeking answers to the question: How can the theoretical principles of Design with Nature (McHarg, 1967) and The Nature of Order (Alexander, 1980) provide for input to a adaptation model for settlements along the coast? Reflecting on a literature review of these two well established theories, the author select key principles from both as input to a ecological design based adaptation model for coastal settlements, which establishes a system of unfolding steps to create sustainable communities that connect with the landscape, and are resilient against future impacts of change.

Geographic information systems and coastal planning in Australia

The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the ability of visualization and simulation techniques to aid and simulate current and future directions in coastal planning. The process of visualization will interrogate the coastal cities of Portland, Apollo Bay, Anglesea and Hobsons Bay in south-eastern Australian coastal seaboard through a progression of projections and simulated forecasts from 2014 to 2050 to see if a process(s) or methodology could help in planning the future growth of coastal settlements. The analysis uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) associated with planning application software.

Indigenous knowledge and climate change : the Wathaurong and Gadubanud narrative for the Great Ocean Road region

For more than forty thousand years Aboriginal people of Australia have been confronted with major climate, ecological and geological changes as well as annual seasonal variations. Many of these changes have been captured in the cultural traditions of Maar (the people) of the south-west Victorian coast and the knowledge has been transferred from generation to generation through Dreaming stories. Many Dreaming stories recount the forming of the coastal landscape and Sea Country. Weather patterns and climate change were gauged by the occurrence of natural events such as the tidal changes, sea level rise, landscape changes, behaviour of animals, and the availability of food sources. Can this ancient knowledge provide answers for adaptation and resilience to a rapid changing climate? Drawing upon recent literature on coastal climate change in the Great Ocean Road Region (GORCC, 2012), literature review of indigenous environmental planning (Kooyang Sea Country Plan, 2004), and investigation of settlement patterns of the Wathaurong and Gadubanud people, this paper reviews the changes in the landscape due to climate change and explores traditional knowledge as input to a potential design based adaptation model for coastal settlements of the Great Ocean Road Region.

Landscapes in transition : local perceptions of indigenous and European settlement changes along the Victorian coast

Around the world coastal areas are witnessing dramatic changes due to the consequences of the growth of human settlements. Rapid urban expansion in coastal settlements due to ‘life style migration’ impacts negatively on environmental coastal amenities that are the driving factor behind the attraction of these areas. The Victorian Coast in Australia is under stress, with the growth pattern of coastal settlements in a sprawling linear fashion resulting in devastating effects on the natural coastal environment, biodiversity and the loss of cultural heritage. The Victorian coast is rich in history, and the coastal towns are often described in literature as places with ‘sense of place’, or referred to as place character. This place character has been formed over many years with the interaction between social histories and natural environments woven together across time. This paper reviews the transition of the landscapes along the Great Ocean Road coastal region, and ask the question how can a potential Generative Plan be developed to establish a process to keep the place character of coastal towns. The proposed plan considers the interrelationships of nature and people as fundamental to forming place character, from the time of Indigenous habitation before European settlement, to the current day of rapid increased developments scattered along this coast.

Indigenous knowledge and climate change: settlement patterns of the past to adaption of the future

For centuries the Aboriginal Peoples of Australia have been confronted with major ecological, geological and climate events, and had to adapt home shelters and settlements to seasonal variations. Many of these changes have been captured in the cultural traditions of the indigenous people reflecting a harsh coastal environment. Weather patterns and climate change were gauged by the occurrence of the tidal changes, landscape changes, recurring weather events and the acknowledgement of six seasons. Community settlements got established and relocated to adapt to the patterns of nature. This paper investigates if this ancient knowledge can provide answers for adaptation of coastal settlements to a changing climate. Drawing upon recent published literature on predicted coastal climate change impacts in the different regions of Australia, and the review of indigenous settlement planning according to a six season cycle, the author explores traditional knowledge as input to a potential Design Based Adaptation Model for coastal settlements along the Australian coast.

South west Victoria 2012-2050 : are the settlements sustainable?

Over the past few decades coastal cities around the world have grown at an incredible rate. With this growth have come major challenges relating to land use planning, social relationships, economic development, bio diversity and the ecological footprint. The following paper selects three regional coastal towns (Warrnambool, Portland and Port Fairy) situated in the Australian state of Victoria, and addresses the issues of: increasing population and population density, open space requirements, residential density issues, public transport coverage, employment and employment density, a shifting economic climate, environment and climate change, water quality issues and building energy consumption with subsequent C02 emissions. Through a series of simulations the nine issues for each of the three cities will be examined from 2012 through to 2030. The goal is to highlight the current and simulated future impacts of the selected issues and propose solutions that could mitigate those impacts.

Reconnaissance limnology of Tasmania VI. Biogeographical significance of physicochemical features of coastal lagoons of the islands of Bass Strait

The physicochemical attributes of 66 coastal dune lakes (lagoons) on islands of Bass Strait have been investigated. The full data set is available electronically. Here, selected environmental variables with known ecological significance are presented and, by reference to known sites of floristic richness in Tasmania, the lagoons most likely to harbour endemic freshwater algae are identified, as biogeographical stepping stones between the Tasmanian and mainland Australian microfloras.

Integrated natural resource management in Australia: the opportunity offered by a national coastal policy

Under the Australian Constitution the management (and planning) of Crown Land is a State and Territory Government responsibility. When this is considered in conjunction with the Offshore Constitutional Settlement, which affirmed that coastal waters out to three nautical miles (in general) offshore were also the responsibility of State and Territory Governments, then clearly coastal management in Australia is largely a State/Territory responsibility.

Beyond three nautical miles it is a different story. Under the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS), which Australia ratified in October 1994, Australia claims jurisdiction out to 200 nautical miles and beyond (Wescott, 2000). These waters cover an area including the Antarctic claim of over 15 million square kilometres or twice the land area of Australia.

Hence in marine and coastal terms we have the national (Commonwealth) Government managing the oceans and seven State and Territory governments largely in charge of coastal management (coastal land and coastal waters). Heading "up river", State and Territory Governments plan and manage catchments.

Given the uncoordinated relationships between Australian coastal management policy and both catchment management policy and Australia's Ocean Policy (Commonwealth of Australia, 1998a and b), the Commonwealth Government's commitment to a "National Coastal Policy" presents an opportunity to progress the integration of natural resources management for the first time in decades.

A blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) feeding ground in a southern Australian coastal upwelling zone

A localised aggregation of blue whales. which may be pygmy blue whales (B. m. brevicauda), occurs in southern Australian coastal waters (between I39°45'E-143°E) during summer and autumn (December-May), where they feed on coastal krill (Nyctiphanes australis). a species which often forms surface swarms. While the abundance of blue whales using this area is unknown, up to 32 blue whales have been sighted in individual aerial  surveys. Krill appear to aggregate in response to enhanced productivity  resulting from the summer-autumn wind-forced Bonney Coast upwelling along the continental shelf. During the upwelling's quiescent (winter-spring) period. blue whales appear to be absent from the region. Krill surface  swarms have been associated with 48% of 261 blue whale sightings since 1998, with direct evidence of feeding observed in 36% of all sightings. Mean blue whale group size was 1.55 (SD =0.839), with all size classes represented including calves. This seasonally predictable upwelling system is evidently a regular feeding ground for blue whales, and careful  management of human activities is required there.

Floristic and structural characteristics of a coastal heathland exhibiting symptoms of Phytophthora cinnamomi infestation in the eastern Otway Ranges, Victoria

The floristics and structure of heathland vegetation exhibiting symptoms of Phytophthora cinnamomi Rands infestation was assessed at two sites in heathlands at Anglesea, Victoria. There were significant effects in both floristics and structure. Thirteen heathland species were significantly less abundant in diseased areas and 23 species were more abundant. Diseased (infested) vegetation, when compared with non-diseased areas, had less cover of Xanthorrhoea australis and shrub species and a greater cover of sedges, grasses and open ground. Structural differences were observed between heights 0 and 0.6 m, with a decline in cover recorded in diseased vegetation. Non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination of the floristic data showed a clear separation of diseased and non-diseased vegetation and that changes in floristic composition post-infestation were similar at both sites. Although there was some evidence of regeneration of X. australis, the recovery capacity of other susceptible species at Anglesea is unknown. The long-term consequences of loss of species and structure in the eastern Otways mean that the vegetation is unlikely to return to former status, especially if the pathogen continues to reinfect.

Spatial prediction of rufous bristlebird habitat in a coastal heathland: a GIS-based approach

1. To develop a conservation management plan for a species, knowledge of its distribution and spatial arrangement of preferred habitat is essential. This is a difficult task, especially when the species of concern is in low   abundance. In south-western Victoria, Australia, populations of the rare rufous bristlebird Dasyornis broadbenti are threatened by fragmentation of suitable habitat. In order to improve the conservation status of this species, critical habitat requirements must be identified and a system of corridors must be established to link known populations. A predictive spatial model of rufous bristlebird habitat was developed in order to identify critical areas requiring preservation, such as corridors for dispersal.
2. Habitat models generated using generalized linear modelling techniques can assist in delineating the specific habitat requirements of a species. Coupled with geographic information system (GIS) technology, these models can be extrapolated to produce maps displaying the spatial configuration of suitable habitat.
3. Models were generated using logistic regression, with bristlebird presence or absence as the dependent variable and landscape variables, extracted from both GIS data layers and multispectral digital imagery, as the predictors. A multimodel inference approach based on Akaike’s information criterion was used and the resulting model was applied in a GIS to extrapolate predicted likelihood of occurrence across the entire area of concern. The predictive performance of the selected model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) technique. A hierarchical partitioning protocol was used to identify the predictor variables most likely to influence variation in the dependent variable. Probability of species presence was used as an index of habitat suitability.
4. Negative associations between rufous bristlebird presence and  increasing elevation, 'distance to cree', 'distance to coast' and sun index were evident, suggesting a preference for areas relatively low in altitude, in close proximity to the coastal fringe and drainage lines, and receiving less direct sunlight. A positive association with increasing habitat complexity also suggested that this species prefers areas containing high vertical density of vegetation.
5. The predictive performance of the selected model was shown to be high (area under the curve 0·97), indicating a good fit of the model to the data. Hierarchical partitioning analysis showed that all the variables considered had significant  independent contributions towards explaining the variation in the dependent variable. The proportion of the total study area that was predicted as suitable habitat for the rufous bristlebird (using probability of occurrence at a ≥0·5 level ) was 16%.
6. Synthesis and applications. The spatial model clearly delineated areas predicted as highly suitable rufous bristlebird habitat, with evidence of potential corridors linking coastal and inland populations via gullies. Conservation of this species will depend on management actions that protect the critical habitats identified in the model. A multi-scale  approach to the modelling process is recommended whereby a spatially explicit model is first generated using landscape variables extracted from a GIS, and a second model at site level is developed using fine-scale habitat variables measured on the ground. Where there are constraints on the time and cost involved in measuring finer scale variables, the first step alone can be used for conservation planning.

The effects of land use on leaf-litter processing by macro-invertebrates in an Australian temperate coastal stream

Replacement of riparian vegetation by pasture has occurred worldwide and is predicted to have strong effects on macroinvertebrate community structure and function in streams, but this has rarely been examined. In this study, leaf processing and macroinvertebrate community structure were examined in a single stream using experimental leaf-packs and surveys of natural leaf-packs. Two sites in each of three land use categories were selected to represent reaches in forest, pasture and forest-pasture boundary regions. In two experiments using tethered leaf-packs, no differences were found in mean leaf breakdown between land use types. However, shredding invertebrates were absent from the pasture sites, so leaf breakdown in pasture resulted from chemical, physical and microbial processes only. Amounts of fine particulate organic matter in experimental leaf-packs were higher in pasture reaches than the forest and boundary reaches but did not influence leaf breakdown. Macroinvertebrate species richness did not differ between land uses. A predictive model developed for species richness and total abundance enabled direct comparison of assemblages on experimental packs to natural leaf-packs. In the forest reach and at the forest-pasture boundary, macroinvertebrate species richness and total abundance increased proportionally with the number of leaves within a pack, but this relationship was not observed in the pasture reach. Pasture land use on Skenes Creek was therefore associated with weakened relationships between allochthonous inputs and macroinvertebrate communities, but this did not alter leaf breakdown.

Landscape characteristics associated with species richness and occurrence of small native mammals inhabiting a coastal heathland: a spatial modelling approach

In the coastal region of south-western Victoria, Australia, populations of native small mammal species are restricted to patches of suitable habitat in a highly fragmented landscape. The size and spatial arrangement of these patches is likely to influence both the occupancy and richness of species at a location. Geographic Information System (GIS)-based habitat models of the species richness of native small mammals, and individual species  occurrences, were developed to produce maps displaying the spatial  configuration of suitable habitat. Models were generated using either generalised linear Poisson regression (for species richness) or logistic regression (for species occurrences) with species richness or  presence/absence as the dependent variable and landscape variables, extracted from both GIS data layers and multi-spectral digital imagery, as the predictor variables. A multi-model inference approach based on the Akaike Information Criterion was used and the resulting model was applied in a GIS framework to extrapolate predicted richness/likelihood of occurrence across the entire area of the study. A negative association between species  richness and elevation, habitat complexity and sun index indicated that richness within the study area decreases with increasing altitude, vertical vegetation structure and exposure to solar radiation. Landform  characteristics were important (to varying degrees) in determining habitat occupancy for all of the species examined, while the influence of habitat complexity was important for only one of the species. Performance of all but one of the models generated using presence/absence data was high, as indicated by the area under the curve of a receiver-operating characteristic plot. The effective conservation of the small mammal species in the area of concern is likely to depend on management actions that promote the protection of the critical habitats identified in the models.