Future landscapes in South-eastern Australia : the role of protected areas and biolinks in adaptation to climate change

The extent and rapidity of global climate change is the major novel threatening process to biodiversity in the 21 st century. Globally, numerous studies suggest movement of biota to higher latitudes and altitudes with increasing empirical -evidence emerging. As biota responds to the direct and consequent effects of climate change the potential to profoundly affect natural systems (including the reserve system) of south-eastern Australia is becoming evident. Climate change is projected to accelerate major environmental drivers such as drought, fire and flood regimes. Is the reserve system sufficient for biodiversity conservation under a changing climate? Australia is topographically flat, biologically mega-diverse with high species endemism, and has the driest and most variable climate of any inhabited continent. Whilst the north-south orientation and aftitude gradient of eastern Australia's forests and woodlands provides some resilience to projected climatic change, this has been eroded since European settlement, particularly in the cool-moist Bassian zone of the south-east. Following settlement, massive land-use change for agriculture and forestry caused widespread loss and fragmentation of habitats; becoming geriatric in agricultural landscapes and artificially young in forests. The reserve system persists as an archipelago of ecological islands surrounded by land uses of varying compatibility with conservation and vulnerable to global warming. The capacity for biota to adapt is limited by habitat availability. The extinction risk is exacerbated. Re-examination of earlier analysis of ecological connectivity through biolink zones confirms biolinks as an appropriate risk management response within a broader suite of measures. Areas not currently in the reserve system may be critical to the value and ecological function of biological assets of the reserve system as these assets change. Ecological need and the rise of ecosystem services, combined with changing socio-economic drivers of land-use and social values that supported the expansion of the reserve system, all suggest biolink zones represent a new, necessary and viable multi-functional landscape. This paper explores some of the key ecological elements for restoration within biolink zones (and landscapes at large) particularly through currently agricultural landscapes.<br />

Disturbance and the role of refuges in mediterranean climate streams

Refuges protect plant and animal populations from disturbance. Knowledge of refuges from disturbance in mediterranean climate rivers (med-rivers) has increased the last decade. We review disturbance processes and their relationship to refuges in streams in mediterranean climate regions (med-regions). Med-river fauna show high endemicity and their populations are often exposed to disturbance; hence the critical importance of refuges during (both seasonal and supraseasonal) disturbances. Disturbance pressures are increasing in med-regions, in particular from climatic change, salinisation, sedimentation, water extraction, hydropower generation, supraseasonal drought, and wildfire. Med-rivers show annual cycles of constrained precipitation and predictable seasonal drying, causing the biota to depend on seasonal refuges, in particular, those that are spatially predictable. This creates a spatial and temporal mosaic of inundation that determines habitat extent and refuge function. Refuges of sufficient size and duration to maintain populations, such as perennially flowing reaches, sustain biodiversity and may harbour relict populations, particularly during increasing aridification, where little other suitable habitat remains in landscapes. Therefore, disturbances that threaten perennial flows potentially cascade disproportionately to reduce regional scale biodiversity in med-regions. Conservation approaches for med-river systems need to conserve both refuges and refuge connectivity, reduce the impact of anthropogenic disturbances and sustain predictable, seasonal flow patterns.

Implications of future climate for marine fish

Climate change has already been linked to significant impacts on Earth's ocean ecosystems including shifts in species geographic ranges, changes in population abundance, shits in timing of seasonal events, and establishment of introduced species (Walter et al. 2002, Parmesan and Yohe 2003). Global climate modelling for the Australian region has identified south-eastern Australia as the area that will be subject to the greatest impacts from climatic change (Lough 2009). The major changes predicted include warming of air and water, changes to wind patterns, changes to the strength and southerly extent of dominant oceanic currents flowing down the east and west coasts of Australia, changes to rainfall and run-off (distribution, timing and intensity), increasing ocean acidification, increasing exposure to UV light and sea level rise (Lough and Hobday 2011). Victorian species may be at greater risk than species in other areas of Australia, because Victorian marine waters are in a zone of predicted high climate change (Johnson et al. 2011, Wernberg et al. 2011).