Mid- to late Holocene landscape change and anthropogenic transformations on Mo‘orea, Society Islands: a multi-proxy approach

Archaeology’s ability to generate long-term datasets of natural and human landscape change positions the discipline as an inter-disciplinary bridge between the social and natural sciences. Using a multi-proxy approach combining archaeological data with palaeoenvironmental indicators embedded in coastal sediments, we outline millennial timescales of lowland landscape evolution in the Society Islands. Geomorphic and cultural histories for four coastal zones on Mo‘orea are reconstructed based on stratigraphic records, sedimentology, pollen analysis, and radiocarbon determinations from mid- to late Holocene contexts. Prehuman records of the island’s flora and fauna are described utilizing landsnail, insect, and botanical data, providing a palaeo-backdrop for later anthropogenic change. Several environmental processes, including sea level change, island subsidence, and anthropogenic alterations, leading to changes in sedimentary budget have operated on Mo‘orea coastlines from c. 4600 to 200 BP. We document significant transformation of littoral and lowland zones which obscured earlier human activities and created significant changes in vegetation and other biota. Beginning as early as 440 BP (1416–1490 cal. ad), a major phase of sedimentary deposition commenced which can only be attributed to anthropogenic effects. At several sites, between 1.8 and 3.0 m of terrigenous sediments accumulated within a span of two to three centuries due to active slope erosion and deposition on the coastal flats. This phase correlates with the period of major inland expansion of Polynesian occupation and intensive agriculture on the island, indicated by the presence of charcoal throughout the sediments, including wood charcoal from several economically important tree species.

Future landscapes in South-eastern Australia : the role of protected areas and biolinks in adaptation to climate change

The extent and rapidity of global climate change is the major novel threatening process to biodiversity in the 21 st century. Globally, numerous studies suggest movement of biota to higher latitudes and altitudes with increasing empirical -evidence emerging. As biota responds to the direct and consequent effects of climate change the potential to profoundly affect natural systems (including the reserve system) of south-eastern Australia is becoming evident. Climate change is projected to accelerate major environmental drivers such as drought, fire and flood regimes. Is the reserve system sufficient for biodiversity conservation under a changing climate? Australia is topographically flat, biologically mega-diverse with high species endemism, and has the driest and most variable climate of any inhabited continent. Whilst the north-south orientation and aftitude gradient of eastern Australia's forests and woodlands provides some resilience to projected climatic change, this has been eroded since European settlement, particularly in the cool-moist Bassian zone of the south-east. Following settlement, massive land-use change for agriculture and forestry caused widespread loss and fragmentation of habitats; becoming geriatric in agricultural landscapes and artificially young in forests. The reserve system persists as an archipelago of ecological islands surrounded by land uses of varying compatibility with conservation and vulnerable to global warming. The capacity for biota to adapt is limited by habitat availability. The extinction risk is exacerbated. Re-examination of earlier analysis of ecological connectivity through biolink zones confirms biolinks as an appropriate risk management response within a broader suite of measures. Areas not currently in the reserve system may be critical to the value and ecological function of biological assets of the reserve system as these assets change. Ecological need and the rise of ecosystem services, combined with changing socio-economic drivers of land-use and social values that supported the expansion of the reserve system, all suggest biolink zones represent a new, necessary and viable multi-functional landscape. This paper explores some of the key ecological elements for restoration within biolink zones (and landscapes at large) particularly through currently agricultural landscapes.

Climate change in the Victorian Alps : can VET be a change agent?

Of all the factors contributing to turbulent times in Australia, climate change is one that offers both challenges and opportunities for VET. In a time when the response to water availability is subject to ‘extensive debate and policy attention’, our presentation explores what adults living and working in the Alpine region of Victoria understand about the changes to water availability, and what they have learned about adapting to significant climatic changes in their local area. Interviews were conducted in the towns of Bright, Mount Beauty and Albury, with participants from across the Alpine region. Our study found evidence of a strong understanding of the direct impact of climate change on participants’ local community area, and a keen desire to learn about adaptation to change. In addition to an identified need for more information around climate change issues and projected impacts in general, participants saw practical hands-on water education strategies as an important way to educate people to help themselves. Conversations about where or how people learned to adapt to change were broad ranging, and clearly connected to the participants’ backgrounds, livelihoods or where they were situated. This raised the question of what responses VET might develop to address these identified learning needs. Major local industries
of tourism, agriculture, water harvesting and land care are all covered by national Training Packages that include industry- specific units of competence to support learning to live and work in an environmentally sustainable way. In addition, the national Employability Skills framework offers opportunities to build climate change awareness and adaptation into units of competency where they may not be explicitly incorporated. Our presentation will outline the opportunities for VET to act as a change agent in this and other Australian communities impacted by climate change.

Developing an integrated approach to understanding the effects of climate change and other environmental alterations at a flyway level

The environmental consequences of global climate change are predicted to have their greatest effect at high latitudes and have great potential to impact fragile tundra ecosystems. The Arctic tundra is a vast biodiversity resource and provides breeding areas for many migratory geese. Importantly, tundra ecosystems also currently act as a global carbon “sink”, buffering carbon emissions from human activities. In January 2003, a new three year project was implemented to understand and model the interrelationships between goose population dynamics, conservation, European land use/agriculture and climate change. A range of potential future climate and land-use scenarios will be applied to the models and combined with information from field experiments on grazing and climate change in the Arctic. This paper describes the content of the research programme as well as issues in relation to engaging stakeholders with the project.

The influence of climate change on Thorthwaite moisture index on the design of light structures

Significant long term changes in the earth’s climate have occurred in the past but recently there has been more severe climate fluctuation than have occurred in the past few centuries. The effect of this climate change on the foundation conditions of roads and low-rise buildings is costing several hundred billion dollars world-wide. A method which tracks this climate change will be of great value for companies and governments. C.W. Thornthwaite (1948) defined the Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) as the first base for his climate classification system and mapping in the United States. There are 3 important factors to predict ground movement: (a) the degree of moisture index change (b) the depth at which this change occurs and (c) the foundation soil type. The water budget model was used by Thornthwaite (1948) to calculate the moisture index. This paper also discusses two typical examples of the use of this model. Originally TMI’s were mainly used to map soil moisture conditions for agriculture but soon became a method to predict environmental and pavement foundation changes.

TMI for urban resilience : measuring and mapping long-term climate change effects on soil moisture

The effect of climate change on the shallow expansive foundation conditions of resident dwellings is costing several hundred billion dollars worldwide. The design and costs of constructing or repairing residential footings is greatly influenced by the degree of ground movement, which is driven by the magnitude of change in soil moisture. The impacts of climate change on urban infrastructure are expected to include accelerated degradation of materials and foundations of buildings and facilities, increased ground movement, changes in ground water affecting the chemical structure of foundations, and fatigue of structures from extreme storm events. Previous research found that residential houses that were built less than five years ago have suffered major cracks and other damage caused by slab movement after record rainfall. The Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) categorises climate on the basis of rainfall, temperature, potential evapotranspiration and the water holding capacity of the soil. Originally TMI was mainly used to map soil moisture conditions for agriculture but soon became a method to predict pavement and foundation changes. Few researchers have developed TMI maps for Australia, but generally, their accuracy is low or unknown, and their use is limited. The aims of this paper are: (1) To produce accurate maps of TMI for the state of Victoria for 100 years (1913 to 2012) in 20 year periods using long-term historical climatic data and advanced spatial statistics methods in GIS, and (2) Analyse the spatial and temporal changes of TMI in Victoria. Preliminary results suggest that a better understanding of climate change through long-term TMI mapping can assist urban planning and guide construction regulations towards the development of cities which are more resilient.

Expert systems modeling for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation in agricultural systems at regional level

Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. In this context, this paper describes a research methodology for assessing potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for, agriculture at regional level. The methodology was developed and applied in the analysis of climate change impacts on key horticultural commodities—pome fruits (apples and pears), stone fruits (peaches and nectarines) and wine grapes—in the Goulburn Broken catchment management region, State of Victoria, Australia. Core components of the methodology are mathematical models that enable to spatially represent the degree of biophysical land suitability for the growth of agricultural commodities in the region of interest given current and future climatic conditions. The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem situations that are being created by climate change.

Adaptation to climate change in regional Australia : a decision-making framework for modelling policy for rural production

A decision-making framework was developed and applied in regional Australia to identify adaptation issues arising in agricultural systems and rural production as a consequence of climate change. Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. An advantage of the framework is that it provides a suite of tools to aid in the formulation of strategies for sustainable regional development and adaptation. The decision-making framework uses a participatory approach that integrates land suitability analysis with uncertainty analysis and spatial optimisation to determine optimal agricultural land use (at a regional scale) for current and possible future climatic conditions. It thus provides a robust analytic approach to (i) recognise regions under threat of productivity declines, (ii) identify alternative cropping systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and (iii) investigate policy actions to improve the sub-optimal situations created by climate change. The decision-making framework and its methods were applied in a case study of the South West Region of Victoria.

A modelling framework for optimisation of commodity production by minimising the impact of climate change

The agricultural sector is vulnerable to the impact of climate change due to decreasing rainfall, increasing temperature, and the frequency of extreme weather events. A modelling framework was developed and applied to identify issues, problems and opportunities arising in regional agricultural systems as a consequence of climate change. This integrated framework blends together land suitability analysis, uncertainty analysis and an optimisation approach to establish optimal agricultural land-use patterns on a regional scale for current and possible future climate scenarios. The framework can also be used to identify (i) regions under threat of productivity decline, and (ii) alternative crops and their locations that can cope better with changing climate. The methods and contents of the framework are presented by means of a case study developed in the South West Region of Victoria, Australia. The results can be used to assess land suitability in support of optimised crop allocations across a local region, and to underpin the development of a regional adaptation policy framework designed to reduce the vulnerability of the agriculture sector to the impacts of climate change.

Development of regional production areas in a changing climate: a case study of Gippsland, Australia

Increased global demand for agricultural production is being driven, in particular, by the rising middle class in the Asia-Pacific geo-region. The significant role of natural resource-based industries, especially agriculture, in the development of non-metropolitan regions is again being recognised. In this context, this article describes a spatial analysis approach to agricultural development based on the development of Production Areas (PAs) in regional/rural economies. PAs are spatial units within regions selected for the intensive sustainable development of agriculture (including forestry, agro-forestry and bio-energy), their associated activities and underpinning infrastructure. A case study in a resource-based region in Australia—Gippsland – explains the approach. This is informed by the eco-economy model of endogenous regional/rural development, which addresses the links between novel co-production and consumption networks. The methodology for the identification and analysis of PAs has, at its core, Land Suitability Analyses of those agricultural commodities currently cultivated in the region and those that could be grown in future climates. The use of GIS enables us to overlay and analyse several constraints (e.g. flood erosion and salinity risk) and resources (e.g. water and transport) to define PAs and the available land within each of them. The approach is further illustrated by focusing in one PA—Macalister, an irrigated dairy production area where recent dry climatic conditions caused a substantial decline in water resources. Key elements for the sustainable development of this PA are outlined including construction of Blue-Green Infrastructure. Comments on the approach and the need for strategic long-term planning concludes the article.

Previous land use and climate influence differences in soil organic carbon following reforestation of agricultural land with mixed-species plantings

Reforestation of agricultural land with mixed-species environmental plantings (native trees and shrubs) can contribute to mitigation of climate change through sequestration of carbon. Although soil carbon sequestration following reforestation has been investigated at site- and regional-scales, there are few studies across regions where the impact of a broad range of site conditions and management practices can be assessed. We collated new and existing data on soil organic carbon (SOC, 0-30 cm depth, N = 117 sites) and litter (N = 106 sites) under mixed-species plantings and an agricultural pair or baseline across southern and eastern Australia. Sites covered a range of previous land uses, initial SOC stocks, climatic conditions and management types. Differences in total SOC stocks following reforestation were significant at 52% of sites, with a mean rate of increase of 0.57 ± 0.06 Mg C ha-1 y-1. Increases were largely in the particulate fraction, which increased significantly at 46% of sites compared with increases at 27% of sites for the humus fraction. Although relative increase was highest in the particulate fraction, the humus fraction was the largest proportion of total SOC and so absolute differences in both fractions were similar. Accumulation rates of carbon in litter were 0.39 ± 0.02 Mg C ha-1 y-1, increasing the total (soil + litter) annual rate of carbon sequestration by 68%. Previously-cropped sites accumulated more SOC than previously-grazed sites. The explained variance differed widely among empirical models of differences in SOC stocks following reforestation according to SOC fraction and depth for previously-grazed (R2 = 0.18-0.51) and previously-cropped (R2 = 0.14-0.60) sites. For previously-grazed sites, differences in SOC following reforestation were negatively related to total SOC in the pasture. By comparison, for previously-cropped sites, differences in SOC were positively related to mean annual rainfall. This improved broad-scale understanding of the magnitude and predictors of changes in stocks of soil and litter C following reforestation is valuable for the development of policy on carbon markets and the establishment of future mixed-species environmental plantings.