Australian universities, government research and the application of climate change knowledge in Australian coastal zone management

One of the key issues in Australia for sustainable management of the coastal zone is that the science of climate change has not been widely used by decision-makers to inform coastal governance. There exist opportunities to enhance the dialogue between knowledge-makers and decision-makers, and universities have a key role to play in researching and fostering better linkages. At the heart of these linkages lies the principle of more informed engagement between historically disparate groups. In Australia, the new ‘Flagship’ research programme, funded by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), emphasizes their partnering with universities in a more systematic and collaborative manner than previously achieved in such research projects. In order to address sustainability in general and coastal adaptation to climate change in particular, interdisciplinary learning needs to occur between the social and natural sciences; also, transdisciplinary understanding of that interaction needs to be fully developed. New methods of communicative engagement such as computer visualizations and animations, together with deliberative techniques, can help policy-makers and planners reach a better understanding of the significance of the science of climate change impacts on the coast. Deeper engagement across historically disparate groups can lead to the development of epistemological and methodological synergies between social and natural scientists, adaptive learning, reflexive governance, and greater analytical and deliberative understanding among scientists, policymakers and the wider public. This understanding can lead in turn to enhance coastal governance for climate adaptation on the coast.

Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh : an agent-based approach

Bangladesh exemplifies the complex challenges facing densely populated coastal regions. The
pressures on the country are immense: around 145 million people live within an area of just 145,000 sq-km at
the confluence of three major river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. While progress
has been made, poverty remains widespread, with around 39% of children under five malnourished. Most of
its land-mass lies below 10m above sea level with considerable areas at sea level, leading to frequent and
prolonged flooding during the monsoons. Sea level rise is leading to more flooding as storm surges rise off
higher sea levels, pushing further inland. Higher sea levels also result in salt-water intrusion into freshwater
coastal aquifers and estuaries, contaminating drinking water and farmland. Warmer ocean waters are also
expected to lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.
Bangladesh depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall which is expected to
increase, leading to more flooding. Climate scientists are also concerned about the stability of monsoon and
the potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase shift to a drier regime. Bangladesh faces an additional
hydrological challenge in that the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
region, where glaciers are melting rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s, by which time
the glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-km to an expected 100,000 sqkm.
After the 2030s, river flows could drop dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into
seasonal monsoon-fed rivers. The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more
than a billion people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30% in
South Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face
substantial challenges in the coming decades.
In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges facing Bangladesh,
an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model (ABM) permits the dynamic
interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic, environmental and epidemiological dimensions of
climate change impacts and adaptation policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these
dimensions, including nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or
epidemics, is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches.
We are developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic impacts on poverty,
migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2100. The model employs
GIS and sub-district level census and economic data and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model
statistics to be generated on a national scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more
realistic treatment of distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to
generate precise predictions of Bangladesh’s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used for
integrated scenario exploration. This paper represents an initial report on progress on this project. So far the
prototype model has demonstrated the desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of
the complex adaptive system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed
policy-oriented model.

Climate change and heritage : responding to the crisis

Climate change poses a major threat to heritage of all kinds. Yet much of the work so far on climate change and heritage replicates aspects of the global heritage system, tending to emphasise a European perspective and focusing on the preservation of tangible heritage. We call for a broader understanding of climate change, particularly as it affects heritage in the developing world, especially that of indigenous peoples and small Island states. This is also a call for political engagement by heritage practitioners. We argue that in the struggle against climate change heritage practitioners can make a worthwhile contribution by arguing for a de-commodified form of heritage practice emphasizing the involvement of local communities and recognition of their cultural resources; that resists being coopted into economic growth strategies unless they supplant other forms of unsustainable development; that focuses on heritage as an alternative way of viewing resources and their use.

Impact of climate change issues on businesses : an action plan using a corporate governance approach

Business globally are readying themselves for wide-ranging impacts as they transition towards a low carbon footprint economy. This paper discusses the major impacts for the firm due to the move to a low-carbon footprint system. In doing so it highlights the crucial link between opportunities, costs, risks and structural changes faced by firms, and presents a framework for managing the complex, multi-pronged impacts. The paper provides a conceptual model that will assist decision-makers to deal with risk management or bottom-line protection issues as well as exploiting the business opportunity the new regulatory environment will produce. The model argues for a holistic corporate governance mechanism, with responsibility and accountability of climate change risk management placed with the board of directors and senior management.

The challenge of being heard : understanding Wadawurrung climate change vulnerability and adaptive capacity

For the original residents and 'landscape planners' of the Australian continent, the some 60,000 years of accumulated ecological knowledge of the patterns and transformations of this continent held the memories and ecological knowledge of its Australian Aboriginal custodians and Elders. Much of this extensive oral knowledge is little listened to, heard, respected, nor incorporated into the Western land use planning literature that seek to guide development and management pressures borne out of some 200 years of local knowledge appreciation and a plethora of northern hemisphere knowledge uniformed by ecological responsibility and self. While extensive planning schemes, development plans, and management plans have been prepared, gazetted and embodied in law, they lack the testament of time and the lore of knowledge longevity.