Anglican identification across the generations: what can census and survey data tell us?

A report on Anglican identity in Australia using census and survey data

Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh : an agent-based approach

Bangladesh exemplifies the complex challenges facing densely populated coastal regions. The
pressures on the country are immense: around 145 million people live within an area of just 145,000 sq-km at
the confluence of three major river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. While progress
has been made, poverty remains widespread, with around 39% of children under five malnourished. Most of
its land-mass lies below 10m above sea level with considerable areas at sea level, leading to frequent and
prolonged flooding during the monsoons. Sea level rise is leading to more flooding as storm surges rise off
higher sea levels, pushing further inland. Higher sea levels also result in salt-water intrusion into freshwater
coastal aquifers and estuaries, contaminating drinking water and farmland. Warmer ocean waters are also
expected to lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.
Bangladesh depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall which is expected to
increase, leading to more flooding. Climate scientists are also concerned about the stability of monsoon and
the potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase shift to a drier regime. Bangladesh faces an additional
hydrological challenge in that the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
region, where glaciers are melting rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s, by which time
the glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-km to an expected 100,000 sqkm.
After the 2030s, river flows could drop dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into
seasonal monsoon-fed rivers. The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more
than a billion people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30% in
South Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face
substantial challenges in the coming decades.
In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges facing Bangladesh,
an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model (ABM) permits the dynamic
interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic, environmental and epidemiological dimensions of
climate change impacts and adaptation policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these
dimensions, including nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or
epidemics, is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches.
We are developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic impacts on poverty,
migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2100. The model employs
GIS and sub-district level census and economic data and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model
statistics to be generated on a national scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more
realistic treatment of distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to
generate precise predictions of Bangladesh’s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used for
integrated scenario exploration. This paper represents an initial report on progress on this project. So far the
prototype model has demonstrated the desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of
the complex adaptive system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed
policy-oriented model.

Separating the influences of environment and species interactions on patterns of distribution and abundance : competition between large herbivores

* 1
Much recent research has focused on the use of species distribution models to explore the influence(s) of environment (predominantly climate) on species’ distributions. A weakness of this approach is that it typically does not consider effects of biotic interactions, including competition, on species’ distributions.
* 2
Here we identify and quantify the contribution of environmental factors relative to biotic factors (interspecific competition) to the distribution and abundance of three large, wide-ranging herbivores, the antilopine wallaroo (Macropus antilopinus), common wallaroo (Macropus robustus) and eastern grey kangaroo (Macropus giganteus), across an extensive zone of sympatry in tropical northern Australia.
* 3
To assess the importance of competition relative to habitat features, we constructed models of abundance for each species incorporating habitat only and habitat + the abundance of the other species, and compared their respective likelihoods using Akaike's information criterion. We further assessed the importance of variables predicting abundance across models for each species.
* 4
The best-supported models of antilopine wallaroo and eastern grey kangaroo abundance included both habitat and the abundance of the other species, providing evidence of interspecific competition. Contrastingly, models of common wallaroo abundance were largely influenced by climate and not the abundance of other species. The abundance of antilopine wallaroos was most influenced by water availability, eastern grey kangaroo abundance and the frequency of late season fires. The abundance of eastern grey kangaroos was most influenced by aspects of climate, antilopine wallaroo abundance and a measure of cattle abundance.
* 5
Our study demonstrates that where census and habitat data are available, it is possible to reveal species’ interactions (and measure their relative strength and direction) between large, mobile and/or widely-distributed species for which competition is difficult to demonstrate experimentally. This allows discrimination of the influences of environmental factors and species interactions on species’ distributions, and should therefore improve the predictive power of species distribution models.

Type 2 diabetes prevalence varies by socio-economic status within and between migrant groups: analysis and implications for Australia

Background:
Ethnic diversity is increasing through migration in many developed countries. Evidence indicates that type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence varies by ethnicity and socio- economic status (SES), and that in many settings, migrants experience a disproportionate burden of disease compared with locally-born groups. Given Australia’s multicultural demography, we sought to identify groups at high risk of T2DM in Victoria, Australia.

Understanding cange in residential property markets: Mapping residency of employment data

The changing nature of residential housing markets is due to a large number of influences, although some have a larger effect than others do on house values. Whilst it is extremely difficult to completely disaggregate all influencing factors, it is possible to highlight areas that have a strong relationship with property – one of these is residency of employment. This research investigates these links between residential housing markets as measured by the level of house prices and residency of employment as measured by industry sector employment. It focuses on Local Government Areas in the State of Victoria, Australia and examines change over a ten year period between 1991 and 2001 using census and house price information. It is supported by data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Victorian Government’s Valuer General’s Office. The analysis also considers changes in these employment sectors from Australia’s overall perspective, as well as comparison with changes in Victoria’s overall residency of employment trends. It is assisted by a spatial representation of three 'shift-share' components and property values with the support of a geographical information system (GIS).

Investigating residential property markets using employment data

The changing nature of residential housing markets is due to a large number of influences, although some factors have a larger effect than others on house values. Whilst it is extremely difficult to completely disaggregate all influencing factors, it is possible to highlight areas that have a strong relationship with property – one of these is employment. Due to the growing importance between housing affordability and the capacity to meet the cost of living the form of regular mortgage repayments or rent, there are clear links between the cost of housing and the ability to pay for the housing product.

The research investigates the links between residential housing markets as measured by the level of house prices and employment as measured by industry sector employment. It focuses on Local Government Areas in the State of Victoria, Australia and examines change over a ten year period between 1991 and 2001 using census and house price information. It is supported by data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Victorian Government’s Valuer General’s Office. The analysis also considers changes in these employment sectors from Australia’s overall perspective, as well as comparison with changes in Victoria’s overall employment trends. It is assisted by a spatial representation of three shiftshare components and property values with the assistance of a geographical information system (GIS).

Socio-economic inequalities in mortality persist into old age in New Zealand : study of all 65 years plus, 2001-04

A number of studies have explored the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and mortality, although these have mostly been based on the working age population, despite the fact that the burden of mortality is highest in older people. Using Poisson regression on linked New Zealand census and mortality data (2001 to 2004, 1.3 million person years) with a comprehensive set of socioeconomic indicators (education, income, car access, housing tenure, neighourhood deprivation) we examined the association of socioeconomic characteristics and older adult mortality (65+ years) in New Zealand. We found that socioeconomic mortality gradients persist into old age. Substantial relative risks of mortality were observed for all socioeconomic factors, except housing tenure. Most relative risk associations decreased in strength with aging (e.g. most deprived compared to least deprived rate ratio for males reducing from 1.40 (95% CI 1.28 to 1.53) for 65-74 year olds to 1.13 (1.00 to 1.28) for 85+ year olds), except for income and education among women where the rate ratios changed little with increasing age. This suggests individual level measures of SES are more closely related to mortality in older women than older men. Comparing across genders, the only statistically significantly different association between men and women was for a weaker association for women for car access.

Sports betting marketing during sporting events: a stadium and broadcast census of Australian Football League matches

OBJECTIVE: Using Australian Football League (AFL) matches as a case study, we investigated the frequency, length and content of marketing strategies for sports betting during two specific settings: 1) at stadiums during four live matches; and 2) during eight televised broadcasts of matches. METHODS: Census of sports betting marketing during Round 12 of the 2011 AFL premiership season. RESULTS: Per match, there was an average of 58.5 episodes (median 49.5, s.d 27.8) and 341.1 minutes (median 324.1 minutes and s.d 44.5) of sports betting marketing at stadiums, and 50.5 episodes (median 53.5, s.d 45.2) and 4.8 minutes (median 5.0 minutes, s.d 4.0) during televised broadcasts. A diverse range of marketing techniques were used to: a) embed sports betting within the game; b) align sports betting with fans' overall experience of the game; and c) encourage individuals to bet live during the game. There were very few visible or audible messages (such as responsible gambling or Gambler's Help messages) to counter-frame the overwhelmingly positive messages that individuals received about sports betting during the match. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: This study raises important questions about the impacts of saturation, integrated and impulse gambling marketing strategies in sporting matches. Future research should explore: 1) how wagering industry marketing strategies may affect the attitudes and behaviours of community sub-groups (e.g. young male sports fans, and children); and 2) which public health and policy strategies, including regulation and harm minimisation messaging, will be effective in responding to wagering industry marketing strategies during sporting matches.

Characterising the Australian engineering workforce and engineering graduate occupational outcomes using national census data

The purpose of undergraduate engineering education is to develop graduates who are capable of commencing professional engineering practice. Professional education should equip graduates with the skills, knowledge and attitudes required for their initial professional practice. It should also enable the capacity to continue the professional development required to refresh knowledge and skills as the graduates mature and the nature of professional engineering work develops. However, it is true that many graduates from professional engineering programs, either immediately or at some later time, pursue a career outside of professional engineering. The reasons for this are widely speculated upon, and are no doubt complex. In this regard, the professional engineering workforce, the undergraduate engineering education system, the links between them, and the occupational outcomes for engineering graduates in Australia are similar to many other developed nations. Using the latest Australian national census data we present a detailed analysis of the makeup of the professional engineering workforce and the occupational outcomes for graduates of undergraduate engineering programs in Australia. The data show that the Australian professional engineering workforce is comprised of people with a wide range of educational qualifications, and, even immediately post-graduation, many Australian engineering graduates pursue non-engineering occupations. This analysis presents important findings for those designing undergraduate engineering curricula that seek to equip students for the best employment outcomes, given the nature of the professional engineering work environment, and the short- and long-term occupations that engineering graduates actually pursue in Australia.

Colonisation by epibionts and meiofauna of real and mimic pneumatophores in a cool temperate mangrove habitat

The size and pace of change in meiofaunal assemblages suggest that meiofauna make excellent subjects for testing theories about how ecological communities change. A field experiment was performed in which the  abundance and composition of epibionts and meiofauna on natural,  transplanted and mimic pneumatophores were monitored over a 47 wk period. Meiofaunal density increased with growth of algal epibionts, both reaching maximum values after 24 wk, at the end of winter. At this time the assemblages from the 3 substrata were similar, although the combined abundances of meiofauna on transplants and mimics were only 28% of the average on natural pneumatophores. Meiofaunal abundance on all substrata decreased rapidly during spring as algal cover declined due to desiccation. Twenty-three species of nematode were recorded from mimics compared with 8 and 7 from transplants and pneumatophores, respectively. A temporal sequence of feeding groups occurred in the order of epigrowth feeders, deposit feeders, and omnivore/predators, with the latter 2 adding to rather than replacing earlier trophic groups. Scavengers were found only on natural pneumatophores. The turnover rates of nematode species between all census times were similar, peaking at 63%, but there was no trend in the turnover rates with time. We conclude that mimics are more suitable than transplanted pneumatophores for colonisation studies because of their greater persistence and more easily standardised surface area. Moreover, the composition of colonising assemblages on them closely resembled assemblages on natural pneumatophores at the time of peak meiofaunal abundance.

Career progression, human capital and pay equity in Australian public sector labour markets

This study uses data from the Victorian Public Sector Census 2004 to identify the extent of equity in pay and career progression (promotion). A system of three equations is developed to capture the endogeneity between human capital and promotion and the interdependence between promotion, pay and human capital. The results indicate that there are substantial differences in the average wages earned by public sector employees in different Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) groups. While some of these differences arise from factors beyond the control of the public sector employers, others arise from bias in the public sector employment system and procedures. The earnings of individual employees in the public sector are determined in a systematic way by the wage structures in the different sub-sectors, the skill base of the employee on recruitment, sub-sector specific promotion rates, acquisition of formal and informal training and the apparent bias within recruitment and promotion systems in dealing with particular groups. The apparent bias of recruitment and promotion systems is complex in makeup and varies within EEO groups as well as between EEO groups. Most of the difference in pay across employees can be explained as an outcome of individual choice and labour market conditions external to the public sector. After adjusting for sectoral wage differences, skill base when recruited, sectoral promotion rate differences, experience in the public sector, whether individuals are employed on a full-time or part-time basis and individual training decisions, the statistical evidence is consistent with the finding that public sector recruitment and promotion systems tends to be biased, on average, against females and those from culturally diverse backgrounds. Achievements in formal education are important for salary progression. This is particularly the case for women. The main drivers of participation in formal education were employer support in both financial and non-financial terms. Promotion rates were important factors in explaining wage differences. Women tended to receive slightly fewer promotions than men, but women received, on average, greater rewards for each promotion.

Where else have you been? The effects of diaspora consciousness and transcultural mixtures on ethnic identity

In social science research, the demographic categories of ethnicity are linked to what the census bureau considers as a person’s ethnic heritage. However, these categories are based on the societal assumption that members of a given category share the same characteristics and life experiences, even though the heterogeneity between members within a category may be as diverse as between categories. The paper examines the 15 interview subjects of a research study drawn from 10 minority migrant groups, where seven of them indicated significant transcultural experiences before migrating to Australia. It argues that their lived experiences and subjectivity vary from others who migrated directly from their native countries. The formers’ diaspora consciousness and transcultural mixtures may introduce an artifact to a research study’s design, affecting the validity of the data collected. The paper examines other situations where this anomaly can occur and proposes precautions
to minimize its negative effects.

Physical activity and television viewing in relation to risk and undiagnosed abnormal glucose metabolism in adults

OBJECTIVE--The goal of this study was to assess the associations of physical activity time and television (TV) time with risk of "undiagnosed" abnormal glucose metabolism in Australian adults.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS--This population-based cross-sectional study using a stratified cluster design involving 42 randomly selected Census Collector Districts across Australia included 8,299 adults aged 25 years or older who were free from new type 2 diabetes and self-reported ischemic disease and did not take lipid lowering or antihypertensive drugs. Abnormal glucose metabolism (impaired fasting glycetnia [IFG], impaired glucose tolerance [IGT], or new type 2 diabetes) was based on an oral glucose tolerance test Self reported physical activity time and TV time (previous week) were assessed using interviewer administered questionnaires.

RESULTS--Alter adjustment for known confounders and TV time, the odds ratio (OR) of having abnormal glucose metabolism was 0.62 (95% CI 0.41-0.96) in men and 0.71 (0.501.00) in women for those engaged in physical activity [greater than or equal to] 2.5 h/week compared with those who were sedentary (0 h/week). The ORs of having abnormal glucose metabolism were 1.16 (0.791.70) in men and 1.49 (1.12-1.99) in women who watched TV > 14 h/week compared with those who watched [less than or equal to] 7.0 h/week. Higher TV viewing (> 14 h/week) was also associated with an increased risk of new type 2 diabetes in men and women and IGT in women compared with those watching < 14 h/week. Total physical activity of [greater than or equal to] 2.5 h/week was associated with a reduced risk of IFG, IGT, and new type 2 diabetes in both sexes: however, only the association with IGT in women was statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS--These findings suggest a protective effect of physical activity and a deleterious effect of TV time on the risk of abnormal glucose metabolism in adults. Population strategies to reduce risk of abnormal glucose metabolism should focus on reducing sedentary behaviors such as TV time, as well as increasing physical activity.

Applying GIS in physical activity research: community walkability and walking behaviours.

Physical activity provides many health benefits, including reduced risk of cardiovascular disease, Type II diabetes and some cancers. Environmental exposure factors (e.g., the built environment) are now receiving ever-increasing attention. Large-scale interdisciplinary studies on the association between attributes of local community environments and residents’ physical activity are being conducted. We will focus on findings from Australia - the Physical Activity in Localities and Community Environments (PLACE) study. PLACE is examining factors that may influence the prevalence and the social and spatial distribution of walking for transport and walking for recreation. A stratified two-stage cluster sampling strategy was used to select 32 urban communities (154 census collection districts), classified as high and low ‘walkable’ using a GISbased walkability index (dwelling density, intersection density, net retail area and land use mix) and matched for socio-economic status. We report data on a sub-sample of 1,216 residents who provided information on the perceived attributes of their community environments (e.g., dwelling density, access to services, street connectivity) and weekly minutes of walking for transport and for recreation. Moderate to strong associations were found between GIS indicators of walkability and the corresponding self-report measures. The walkability index explained the same amount of neighborhood-level variance in walking for transport as did the complete set of self-report measures. No significant associations were found with walking for recreation. Relevant GIS-based indices of walkability, for purposes other than transport need to be   developed.

Workforce trends in specialist and GP obstetric practice in Victoria

OBJECTIVE: To provide a contemporary picture of the general practitioner and specialist obstetric workforce in Victoria.

DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Postal census by questionnaire of all 317 Fellows and 961 Diplomates on the Victorian database of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists in September 2003.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sex, age and geographical distributions and patterns of retirement from and recruitment to the GP and specialist obstetric workforce in Victoria.

RESULTS: 244 Fellows (77.0%) and 652 Diplomates (67.8%) participated. The average age of Diplomates was 42 years; only 20% were involved in procedural obstetrics. Of GPs practising procedural obstetrics, 56% intended to cease within 7 years. Two-thirds of specialist obstetricians continued to practise obstetrics. Among those ceasing obstetrics, almost half had done so since 2000. Among Fellows ceasing obstetric practice, there is a peak in the 50-60-years age group, but cessation of obstetric practice occurred across all age groups.

CONCLUSION: The proportion of GPs involved in procedural obstetrics has fallen markedly over the past decade, with half of those ceasing practice in the 40-50-years age group. New GPs entering the workforce with the Diploma and overseas doctors are unlikely to meet the procedural workforce shortfall. Attracting the large cohort of doctors aged 40-50 years back to obstetric practice must be a priority. Given the pattern of retirements from obstetrics, there will be insufficient numbers of specialists to maintain current levels of service. The reasons include non-participation in obstetrics by new graduates and international medical graduates, the inadequate number of new graduates, and the predominance of women among specialists aged under 40 years, whose work output tends to be affected by family commitments.