Trade and industrial policy in developing countries : what scope for interfaces between agent-based models and computable-general equilibrium models

How best to assess trade and industrial policy in developing countries is a controversial question that unlocks a host of modelling complexities. Large computable general-equilibrium (CGE) models dominate many economic policy debates, but recent developments in the field have demonstrated that it is by no means clear that they give reliable results to questions of how trade reforms affect the poor. Over the last decade or so, a new approach to modelling complex systems has emerged using agent-based models (ABMs). This paper explores the question of whether ABMs are useful for economic policy-makers seeking to quantitatively model the effects of trade and industrial policies and whether constructive interfaces could be developed between CGE models and ABMs. The paper argues that in developing economic policy, ABMs can and should be used in conjunction with CGE models and that there is much to be gained from a greater understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different modelling approaches, and what domains are most appropriate for their use. It concludes with some reflections on the reasons for the success of CGE approaches and ways in which ABMs could be made more widely understood and used among economists.

Whole grain consumption is inversely associated with BMI Z-score in rural school-aged children

Objective To examine the relationship between intake of whole grains and BMI Z-score in rural children.

Design General linear models and logistic regression were used to examine the cross-sectional associations between whole grain intake and BMI Z-score, prevalence and odds ratios of overweight and obesity. Dietary intake was assessed using the Block Food Screener for ages 2–17 years. Children were classified into three categories according to servings of whole grain intake: <1·0 serving/d, 1·0–1·5 servings/d and >1·5 servings/d.

Setting The CHANGE (Creating Healthy, Active and Nurturing Growing-up Environments) study, an obesity prevention intervention in elementary schools in eight rural US communities in California, Mississippi, Kentucky and South Carolina.

Subjects Seven hundred and ninety-two children attending 3rd–6th grade.

Results After adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, physical activity and state of residence, whole grain intake was inversely associated with BMI Z-score (0·90 v. 0·61 in the lowest v. the highest whole grain intake category; P trend = 0·01). Children who consumed >1·5 servings of whole grains/d had a 40 % lower risk of being obese (OR = 0·60; 95 % CI 0·38, 0·95, P = 0·02) compared with children who consumed <1·0 serving/d. Further adjustment for potential dietary predictors of body weight (fruit, vegetable and dairy intakes) did not change the observed associations.

Conclusions Increasing the intake of whole grains as part of an overall healthy lifestyle may be beneficial for children to achieve and maintain a healthy weight.

Validation of model-based estimates (synthetic estimates) of the prevalence of risk factors for coronary heart disease for wards in England

Several sets of model-based estimates (synthetic estimates) of the prevalence of risk factors for coronary heart disease for small areas in England have been developed. These have been used in policy documents to indicate which areas are in need of intervention. In general, these models have not been subjected to validity assessment. This paper describes a validity assessment of 16 sets of synthetic estimates, by comparison of the models with national, regional and local survey-based estimates, and local mortality rate estimates. Model-based estimates of the prevalence of smoking, low fruit and vegetable consumption, obesity, hypertension and raised cholesterol are found to be valid.

Habitual active transport moderates the association of tv viewing time with body mass index

Background: Television viewing time is associated with obesity risk independent of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA). However,
it is unknown whether the relationship of TV viewing time with body mass index (BMI) is moderated by other domains of physical activity. Methods: A mail survey collected height;weight; TV viewing time; physical activity for transportation (habitual transport behavior; past week walking and bicycling), for recreation (LTPA), and in workplace; and sociodemographic variables in Adelaide, Australia. General linear models examined whether physical activity domains moderate the association between BMI and TV viewing time. Results: Analysis of the sample (N = 1408) found that TV time, habitual transport, and LTPA were independently associated with participant’s BMI. The interaction between TV time and habitual transport with BMI was significant, while that between TV time and LTPA was not. Subgroup analyses found that adjusted mean BMI was significantly higher for the high TV viewing category, compared with the low category,
among participants who were inactive and occasionally active in transport, but not among those who were regularly active. Conclusions: Habitual active transport appeared to moderate the relationship between TV viewing time and BMI. Obesity risk associated with prolonged TV viewing may be mitigated by regular active transport.

A biologist's guide to assessing ocean currents : a review

We review how ocean currents are measured (in both Eulerian and Lagrangian frameworks), how they are inferred from satellite observations, and how they are simulated in ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). We then consider the value of these ‘direct’ (in situ) and ‘indirect’ (inferred, simulated) approaches to biologists investigating current-induced drift of strong-swimming vertebrates as well as dispersion of small organisms in the open ocean. We subsequently describe 2 case studies. In the first, OGCM-simulated currents were compared with satellite-derived currents; analyses suggest that the 2 methods yield similar results, but that each has its own limitations and associated uncertainty. In the second analysis, numerical methods were tested using Lagrangian drifter buoys. Results indicated that currents simulated in OGCMs do not capture all details of buoy trajectories, but do successfully resolve most general aspects of current flows. We thus recommend that the errors and uncertainties in ocean current measurements, as well as limitations in spatial and temporal resolution of the surface current data, need to be considered in tracking studies that incorporate oceanographic data. Whenever possible, cross-validation of the different methods (e.g. indirect estimates versus buoy trajectories) should be undertaken before a decision is reached about which technique is best for a specific application.

Does playing a sports active video game improve young children's ball skill competence?

OBJECTIVES: Actual and perceived object control (commonly ball) skill proficiency is associated with higher physical activity in children and adolescents. Active video games (AVGs) encourage whole body movement to control/play the electronic gaming system and therefore provide an opportunity for screen time to become more active. The purpose of this study was to determine whether playing sports AVGs has a positive influence on young children's actual and perceived object control skills. DESIGN: Two group pre/post experimental design study. METHODS: Thirty-six children aged 6-10 years old from one school were randomly allocated to a control or intervention condition. The Test of Gross Motor Development-3 assessed object control skill. The Pictorial Scale of Perceived Competence for Young Children assessed perceived object control skill. The intervention consisted of 6×50min lunchtime AVG sessions on the Xbox Kinect. Two to three sport games were chosen for participants to play each session. General linear models with either perceived object control or actual object control skill as the outcome variables were conducted. Each base model adjusted for intervention status and pre-score of the respective outcome variable. Additional models adjusted for potential confounding variables (sex of child and game at home). RESULTS: No significant differences between the control and intervention groups were observed for both outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that playing the Xbox Kinect does not significantly influence children's perceived or actual object control skills, suggesting that the utility of the Xbox Kinect for developing perceived and actual object control skill competence is questionable.

The effect of the apolipoprotein E genotype on response to personalized dietary advice intervention: findings from the Food4Me randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: The apolipoprotein E (APOE) risk allele (ɛ4) is associated with higher total cholesterol (TC), amplified response to saturated fatty acid (SFA) reduction, and increased cardiovascular disease. Although knowledge of gene risk may enhance dietary change, it is unclear whether ɛ4 carriers would benefit from gene-based personalized nutrition (PN). OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to 1) investigate interactions between APOE genotype and habitual dietary fat intake and modulations of fat intake on metabolic outcomes; 2) determine whether gene-based PN results in greater dietary change than do standard dietary advice (level 0) and nongene-based PN (levels 1-2); and 3) assess the impact of knowledge of APOE risk (risk: E4+, nonrisk: E4-) on dietary change after gene-based PN (level 3). DESIGN: Individuals (n = 1466) recruited into the Food4Me pan-European PN dietary intervention study were randomly assigned to 4 treatment arms and genotyped for APOE (rs429358 and rs7412). Diet and dried blood spot TC and ω-3 (n-3) index were determined at baseline and after a 6-mo intervention. Data were analyzed with the use of adjusted general linear models. RESULTS: Significantly higher TC concentrations were observed in E4+ participants than in E4- (P < 0.05). Although there were no significant differences in APOE response to gene-based PN (E4+ compared with E4-), both groups had a greater reduction in SFA (percentage of total energy) intake than at level 0 (mean ± SD: E4+, -0.72% ± 0.35% compared with -1.95% ± 0.45%, P = 0.035; E4-, -0.31% ± 0.20% compared with -1.68% ± 0.35%, P = 0.029). Gene-based PN was associated with a smaller reduction in SFA intake than in nongene-based PN (level 2) for E4- participants (-1.68% ± 0.35% compared with -2.56% ± 0.27%, P = 0.025). CONCLUSIONS: The APOE ɛ4 allele was associated with higher TC. Although gene-based PN targeted to APOE was more effective in reducing SFA intake than standard dietary advice, there was no difference between APOE "risk" and "nonrisk" groups. Furthermore, disclosure of APOE nonrisk may have weakened dietary response to PN. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01530139.

More active pre-school children have better motor competence at school starting age: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Almost half of young children do not achieve minimum recommendations of 60 daily minutes in physical activity. Physical activity is potentially an important determinant of the development of motor competence in children. This study is one of very few longitudinal studies in this area and the first to investigate early childhood physical activity as a predictor of subsequent motor skill competence. METHODS: Children were assessed as part of the Melbourne InFANT Program longitudinal cohort study at 19 months, 3.5 years and 5 years. Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (accelerometry) was assessed at each time point. At age 5, children were also assessed in actual (Test of Gross Motor Development-2) and perceived motor competence (Pictorial Scale of Perceived Movement Skill Competence). General linear models were performed with all 12 skills (six object control and six locomotor skills), both actual and perceived, at age 5 as the respective outcome variables. Predictor variables alternated between MVPA at 19 months, 3.5 years and 5 years. RESULTS: Based on standardized TGMD-2 scores most children were average or below in their skill level at age 5. MVPA at 19 months was not a predictor of actual or perceived skill at age 5. MVPA at 3.5 years was associated with actual locomotor skill (B = 0.073, p = 0.033) and perceived total skill at 5 years of age (B = 0.059, p = 0.044). MVPA was not a predictor of actual or perceived object control skill at any age. CONCLUSION: Parents and preschool staff should be informed that more time in MVPA as a preschool child contributes to locomotor skill and to perceptions of skill ability in a child of school starting age. Understanding this relationship will assist in intervention development.

Hierarchical hidden Markov models with general state hierarchy

The hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM) is an extension of the hidden Markov model to include a hierarchy of the hidden states. This form of hierarchical modeling has been found useful in applications such as handwritten character recognition, behavior recognition, video indexing, and text retrieval. Nevertheless, the state hierarchy in the original HHMM is restricted to a tree structure. This prohibits two different states from having the same child, and thus does not allow for sharing of common substructures in the model. In this paper, we present a general HHMM in which the state hierarchy can be a lattice allowing arbitrary sharing of substructures. Furthermore, we provide a method for numerical scaling to avoid underflow, an important issue in dealing with long observation sequences. We demonstrate the working of our method in a simulated environment where a hierarchical behavioral model is automatically learned and later used for recognition.

Improving chlamydia knowledge should lead to increased chlamydia testing among Australian general practitioners: a cross-sectional study of chlamydia testing uptake in general practice

Female general practitioners (GPs) have higher chlamydia testing rates than male GPs, yet it is unclear whether this is due to lack of knowledge among male GPs or because female GPs consult and test more female patients.

A profile of four patterns of vulnerability to functional decline in older general medicine patients in Victoria, Australia: a cross sectional survey

BACKGROUND: There are limited published data reporting Australian hospitalized elders' vulnerability to functional decline to guide best practice interventions. The objectives of this study were to describe the prevalence of vulnerability to functional decline and explore profiles of vulnerability related to the performance of physical activity in a representative group of elders in a single centre in Victoria, Australia.

METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of patients aged ≥ 70 years (Mean age 82.4, SD 7 years) admitted to a general medical ward of an Australian tertiary-referral metropolitan public hospital from March 2010 to March 2011 (n = 526). Patients were screened using the Vulnerable Elders Survey (VES-13). Distinct typologies of physical difficulties were identified using latent class analysis.

RESULTS: Most elders scored ≥3/10 on the VES-13 and were rated vulnerable to functional decline (n = 480, 89.5 %). Four distinct classes of physical difficulty were identified: 1) Elders with higher physical functioning (n = 114, 21.7 %); 2) Ambulant elders with diminished strength (n = 24, 4.6 %); 3) Elders with impaired mobility, strength and ability to stoop (n = 267, 50.8 %) and 4) Elders with extensive physical impairment (n = 121, 23 %) Vulnerable elders were distributed through all classes.

CONCLUSIONS: Older general medicine patients in Victoria, Australia, are highly vulnerable to functional decline. We identified four distinct patterns of physical difficulties associated with vulnerability to functional decline that can inform health service planning, delivery and education.

Australian women`s experiences of living with hepatitis C virus: results from a cross-sectional survey

Background: Of the estimated 160 000 Australians currently infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV), over one-third are women and very few have received clinical treatment, with most managing their illness in non-specialist settings. Little is known about the experiences of women living with HCV in the general community. The present study provides the results from the first comprehensive social survey of Australian women's experiences of living with HCV.

Methods: In 2000, a questionnaire was administered to a largely non-clinical sample of women with HCV (n = 462) living in the state of Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory, Australia. The questionnaire was self-administered with a return rate of 75%. The mean age was 35 years and 83% were 'current' or 'past' injecting drug users. The mean time since diagnosis was 4.6 years (SD = 4.0) and the mean time since infection was 10.5 years (SD = 8.2).

Results: Fifty-eight percent of women reported experiencing symptoms related to their HCV, the most common being tiredness (78%) and nausea (44%). Of the sample, 56% currently saw a doctor for their HCV, and while 52% had ever been referred to a specialist, only 17% of the total sample had ever begun interferon-based combination or monotherapy. Forty-eight percent of women reported experiencing less favorable treatment by a health professional because of their HCV. Age-related self-assessed health status was significantly lower than Australian norms, as were SF-12 physical and mental health scores. The SF-12 physical and mental health scores were highly correlated, indicating a significant physical and mental health burden associated with HCV.

Conclusion: The social, physical and mental health needs of women living with HCV are considerable. Most women had not accessed specialist treatment and the response of the primary health care system to HCV-related women's health issues requires improvement.

The dynamics of business ethics: a function of time and culture-cases and models

Examines the construct of ethics in general and of business ethics in particular. Provides a conceptual discussion of the dynamics of ethics in society and the dynamics of business ethics in the marketplace. Ethics and business ethics constructs are dependent upon two principal parameters – time and culture. Eventually, ethics and business ethics are about what is perceived as acceptable or unacceptable at a specific time and in a specific cultural setting. What was ethical yesterday may not be ethical today, and what is ethical today may not be ethical tomorrow. Furthermore, both the company’s view and the views of others may determine what is acceptable or unacceptable in business ethics. This is a social construction that may differ between the parties involved in a specific context. The discussion is supported by two brief and different cases from the automobile industry. This research contributes a set of generic models that examine business ethics dynamics.