Are business cycles stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend? empirical evidence from 79 developing countries

There is a large literature that tests the univariate time series properties of the real output series following the seminal work of Nelson and Plosser (1982). Whether or not real output is characterized by a unit root process has important implications. A unit root in real output, for instance, is inconsistent with the notion that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In this paper, we investigate the univariate time series properties of real output for 79 developing countries using the conventional augmented Dickey and Fuller (1979) unit root test, the Zivot and Andrews’ (1992) one structural break unit root test, and the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) two structural breaks unit root test. Our main finding is that, for 40 countries, real output is stationary around a trend. This indicates that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend for only 51% of the developing countries in our sample.

Modelling Australian business cycle fluctuations : a real business cycle approach

Provides a theoretical explanation of Australian macroeconomic fluctuations, identifies the major driving forces and measures the relative importance of different factors. The research shows that technology, the terms of trade and other real factors are the major driving forces behind Australian macroeconomic fluctations.

International business cycles and remittance flows

In this paper, we study the macroeconomic determinants of remittance flows. We place particular attention to fluctuations in remittance flows over the international business cycles. Estimating a dynamic panel data model using the system-GMM method over the period 1970–2007, we document that remittance inflows decrease with home country volatility. Contrarily, remittance inflows increase with the volatility in host countries, especially for middle-income countries. Lower interest rates in host countries lead to larger remittance outflows. Trade and capital account openness are the most important factors that determine both remittance inflows and outflows. We conclude that macroeconomic factors of both home and host countries are important for understanding remittance flows.

Are output fluctuations transitory? New evidence from twenty four Chinese provinces

The fact that an occurrence of a unit root in real output is inconsistent with the notion that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend makes this an important topic for empirical investigation. We examine this issue for 24 Chinese provinces using the recently developed Lagrange multiplier panel unit root test which allows for a structural break. Our main finding is that real gross domestic product (GDP) and real GDP per capita for Chinese provinces are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend.

An investigation of the behaviour of Australia's business cycle

In this paper we examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in income, consumption and investment at business cycle horizons for Australia. We use the common trend–common cycle restrictions to estimate a variance decomposition of shocks, and find that over short horizons the bulk of the variations in income and investment are due to permanent shocks, while transitory shocks explain the bulk of the variations in consumption. The former finding is consistent with real business cycle models which attribute business cycles to aggregate supply shocks, while the findings for consumption are consistent with the Keynesian view, which attributes business cycles to aggregate demand shocks.

Understanding the importance of permanent and transitory shocks at business cycle horizons for the UK

The goal of this paper is to examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in macroeconomic aggregates for the UK at business cycle horizons. Using the common trend–common cycle restrictions, we estimate a variance decomposition of shocks, and find that over short horizons the bulk of the variations in income and consumption were due to permanent shocks while transitory shocks explain the bulk of the variations in investment. Our findings for income and consumption are consistent with real business cycle models which emphasize the role of aggregate supply shocks, while our findings for investment are consistent with the Keynesian school of thought, which emphasizes the role of aggregate demand shocks in explaining business cycles.

Investigating business cycle asymmetry for the G7 countries : evidence from over a century of data

In this paper we test for asymmetric behaviour of business cycles for the G7 countries, using the entropy-based test for asymmetry suggested by Racine and Maasoumi [Racine, J.S., & Maasoumi, E. (in press-a). A versatile and robust metric entropy test of time-reversibility, and other hypotheses, Journal of Econometrics; Racine, J.S., & Maasoumi, E. (in press-b). A robust entropy based test for asymmetry. Econometric Reviews.]. We find overwhelming evidence of symmetry. In only 14% of the cases, we find some evidence of asymmetric behaviour of GDP and per capita GDP. More importantly, the period marked by the flexible exchange rate regime, over which much of the empirical work for the G7 countries has been conducted, evidence suggests that the two GDP series are symmetric.

Understanding property cycles in a residential market

Purpose – This paper aims to review property cycle theory and the relevance of the larger body of knowledge about cycles with reference to the housing market. It also aims to highlight the lack of research into property cycles in the residential sector on a suburb or smaller region basis, as well as the potential for increased knowledge about cycles to assist to avoid housing stress.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper conducts a literature review of previous cycle research and encourages the use of cycle theory. It discusses the established body of knowledge about business cycles and the office market sector, as well as investigating levels of housing affordability and how detailed knowledge about property cycles can assist to decrease housing affordability in residential areas, which will eventually experience a downturn.

Findings – It is argued that an increased level of certainty about cycle behaviour in particular suburbs will give households a higher level of confidence when considering whether and when to enter the market. Property cycle research has the potential to assist low-income homeowners to better understand the characteristics of cycles and associated risks in each residential.

Research limitations/implications – This is a conceptual paper and has conducted a review of cycle research and housing affordability in certain countries. Some areas or countries may be affected to varying degrees by property cycles and levels of housing affordability.

Practical implications – In extended periods of high volatility it is argued that a better understanding of housing cycles will allow more homeowners to avoid negative equity and the stress associated with repossessions. Property cycles are unavoidable although there is typically relatively little information available in the open market about the timing and amplitude of cycles in individual areas.

Originality/value – This paper is unique as it highlights the potential for property cycles to be used to avoid housing stress in the residential market. Traditionally cycle research is used to increase returns and avoid downturns in the office and/or business sectors.

The efficient market hypothesis and corporate event waves: part II

This article is the second of a two-part series on the efficient market hypothesis corporate event waves. The ideas of market efficiency, or rational theory, and the behavioral hypothesis have been extensively used to explain the modern phenomena of corporate event waves. Some studies investigate the patterns of corporate events from a behavioral finance perspective and suggest that corporate announcement waves are driven by investor sentiment. Baker and Wurgler examine equity market timing as an aspect of real corporate financial policy. Sentiment can also explain IPO waves. Post-announcement returns and IPO volume are positively correlated to firms' capital demands and the level of investor optimism. Helwge and Liang examine the IPO cycles from hot to cold markets from 1975 to 2000. Corporate e vent wave scan also be explained by the neoclassical efficiency hypothesis, proposing that business cycle fluctuations and economic conditions drive firms' decisions on financing transactions.

What determines the yen swap spread?

We investigate if Japanese yen denominated interest rate swap spreads price risks in addition to liquidity and default risk. These additional risks include: the time-varying correlation between interest rates of different types and maturities; business cycle risk; and market skewness risk. Our analysis, over a number of different maturities and sample periods, supports the existence of an additional risk premium. We also show that the time-varying correlation between short term market interest rates (e.g., TIBOR) and the longer term Government bond yield (e.g., Gensaki) is of particular importance. Japanese yen swap spreads are shown to contain both pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical elements of business cycle risk, positive risk premia for skewness risk and variable risk premia for correlation risk (between fixed and floating interest rates).

Economic transition and commercial property cycles in China

Drawn from a recently completed study, this paper aims at a better understanding of commercial property cycles in the transitional economy of China. It examines the behaviour of the property submarket system in China and considers structural changes in the socio-economic system as a primary factor in addressing the research problem. The study suggests that the underlying social and economic structure has greatly determined market behaviour. It finds that radical changes can alter the formal structure (the designed structure) of the market system, including the property market structure, but cannot alter the informal structure (i.e. the emergent structure) at the similar rate. As the study shows, cycles in the commercial property market in the economic transition is largely a key resulting feature of the continuous structural change both at formal and informal levels in a way that is often imbalanced and not always consistently changing together. The same situation also applies to the transformation of inner-city built form, which is featured by a delayed change of physical building stock against the space demand trend that is underpinned by the socio-economic transition. Put simply, there is a supply lag, mainly in the form of changing land use and building stock replacement, against economic change (the business cycle). This affects the level of effective demand for office space and hence becomes a major force in shaping current office cycles.

Impacts of currency fluctuations on Japanese foreign direct investment

The Japanese currency has appreciated substantially against most other currencies over the last two decades. During the same time Japan has become one of the world's largest providers of FDI. Japan's share of total FDI outflows increased from about 6 percent during the late 70's to 21 percent in 1990 while its share of the total stock of FDI in the world increased from less than 1 percent in 1960 to more than 13 percent in 1993. Not surprisingly, Japan's role in international business in general and its FDI activities, in particular, have attracted considerable attention from researchers world wide. However, much of this attention has been directed towards the patterns and determinants of Japanese foreign direct investment, in particular to the United States. The impact of changes in the value of the Yen on Japanese FDI has been largely overlooked. Thus, this paper fills an important gap in the literature by focusing on the influence of changes of the exchange rate on Japanese foreign direct investment. A comprehensive simultaneous equa-tion model of Japanese FDI is developed on a regional level to gauge the extent to which currency fluctuations affect Japanese FDI activities. The results suggest that the exchange rate is an effective mechanism through which to influence FDI. Thus, the exchange rate should not be overlooked by the World Trade Organisation in its efforts to further liberalise investment through the Multilateral Agreement on Investment.

Nanoscale variation in energy dissipation in austenitic shape memory alloys in ultimate loading cycles

Wavy behaviours of hysteresis energy variation in nanoscale bulk of thermomechanical austenitic NiTi shape memory alloy are reported in ultimate nanoindentation loading cycles. One sharp and two spherical tips were used while two loading-unloading rates were applied. For comparison, another austenitic copper-based shape memory alloy, CuAlNi shape memory alloy, and a metal with no phase transition, elastoplastic Cu, were investigated. In shape memory alloys, the hysteresis energy variation ultimately undergoes a linear decrease with internal wavy fluctuations and no stabilisation was observed. The internal energy fluctuation in these alloys was found dissimilar depending on the loading-unloading rate and the indentation tip geometry. In contrast, there was an absence of both overall and internal variations in hysteresis energy for Cu after the second loading cycle. The underlying physics of these variations is discussed and found to be attributed to both the created dislocations and ratcheting thermal-mechanical behaviour of the phase-transformed volume in shape memory alloys.