Guest editors' introduction : special issue of Journal of Banking and Finance on recent developments in financial econometrics and applications

Introduction to the special supplementary issue of Journal of Banking and Finance on recent developments in financial econometrics and applications.

The role of financial education in retirement planning

Governments in many countries are facing the challenge of providing sufficient retirement incomes for a population that is ageing as a result of lower mortality and fertility rates. An ageing population places considerable financial stress on government budgets as spending on welfare increases, further compounded by a proportional reduction in working-age taxpayers. Exposure to financial education programs can positively influence the retirement planning and savings behaviour of individuals. Research indicates that seminars, written communications and website information are effective methods in communicating financial education. In this study an investigation is conducted into the views of retirement fund members regarding elements of financial education resources made available to them through their retirement fund. Four aspects are investigated, that is, whether there are differences with respect to members’ views between the genders, older and younger members, levels of qualification, and size of superannuation balances. Empirical evidence suggests that gender and age are important factors with females and younger people less likely to utilise educational information and more at risk of not accumulating sufficient funds for retirement.

Does cash flow predict returns?

In this paper, we propose the hypothesis that cash flow and cash flow volatility predict returns. We categorize firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange into sectors, and apply tests for both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability. While we find strong evidence that cash flow volatility predicts returns for all sectors, the evidence obtained when using cash flow as a predictor is relatively weak. Estimated profits and utility gains also suggest that it is cash flow volatility that is more relevant as a source of information than cash flow.

Review of Post-CLERP 9 Australian auditor independence research

The Corporate Law Economic Reform Program (Audit Reform & Corporate Disclosure) Act 2004 (CLERP 9) added substantial new provisions pertaining to auditor independence, and followed in the wake of financial reporting scandals during 2000 to 2003. Many of the regulatory changes were framed in the earlier Ramsay Report, which drew on independence concerns raised in the academic literature. This review paper reviews Australian academic research investigating auditor independence, framed by our conceptual understanding of auditor independence, to assess what we have learned about the impact of CLERP 9 on auditor independence. Our review of Australian auditor independence research published post-CLERP 9 reveals little evidence of the impact of the regulatory changes on auditor behaviour (independence in fact) and perceptions (independence in appearance). We conclude there are substantial needs for further research on the impact of the CLERP 9 amendments on auditor independence and any enduring independence issues. We identify particular areas for future research that may better inform policy development and argue that the prospect of high-quality relevant research will increase if regulatory agencies, the accounting profession and audit practitioners engage more with academics in the research process. We identify several ways in which this might occur.

Psychological oil price barrier and firm returns

In this paper, we investigate the psychological barrier effect induced by the oil price on firm returns when the oil price reaches US$100 or more per barrel. We find evidence of the negative effect of the US$100 oil price barrier for: (a) the entire sample of 1559 firms listed on the American stock exchanges; (b) both foreign and domestic firms, with domestic firms significantly more affected; (c) the 10 different sizes of firms, with the smaller firms less affected compared to the larger firms; and (d) 17 sectors of firms, with firms in the utilities, mining, and administration sectors being the least affected.

Can governance quality predict stock market returns? New global evidence

We develop country-level governance indices using governance risk factors and examine whether country-level governance can predict stock market returns. We find that country-level governance predicts stock market returns only in countries where governance quality is poor. For countries with well-developed governance, there is no evidence that governance predicts returns. Our findings also confirm that investors in countries with weak governance can utilise information contained in country-level governance indicators to devise profitable portfolio strategies.

An analysis of sectoral equity and CDS spreads

In this paper, we find that CDS return shocks are important in explaining the forecast error variance of sectoral equity returns for the USA. The CDS return shocks have different effects on equity returns and return volatility in the pre-crisis and crisis periods. It is the post-Lehman crisis period in which the effects of CDS return shocks are the most dominant. Finally, we construct a spillover index and find that it is time-varying and explains a larger share of total forecast error variance of sectoral equity and CDS returns for some sectors than for others.

Estimating cointegrated panels with common factors and the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis

This article proposes a bias-adjusted estimator for use in cointegrated panel regressions when the errors are cross-sectionally correlated through an unknown common factor structure. The asymptotic distribution of the new estimator is derived and is examined in small samples using Monte Carlo simulations. For the estimation of the number of factors, several information-based criteria are considered. The simulation results suggest that the new estimator performs well in comparison to existing ones. In our empirical application, we provide new evidence suggesting that the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis cannot be rejected. © The Author 2007.

Corporate political connections and the 2008 Malaysian election

We examine whether the relationship between political connections and firm value is moderated by the length of time firms have been politically connected. We find that compared to firms with political connections for a short period, firms with political connections for a long period have a smaller magnitude of negative stock price reaction to the 2008 General Election loss of the supermajority by the ruling party in Malaysia. We also find that the smaller magnitude of negative stock price reaction is, in part, attributable to improvements in board of director characteristics. Furthermore, we find that while the performance subsequent to the General Election of politically connected firms is worse than that of non-politically connected firms, firms with political connections for a long period exhibit better performance than those connected for short periods. Collectively, the evidence shows that the length of political connections is an important factor that moderates economic value.

Gender-diverse boards and properties of analyst earnings forecasts

Using a sample of 2,200 U.S. listed firm-year observations (2001-2007), this study shows a positive (negative) relation between gender diversity on corporate boards and analysts' earnings forecast accuracy (dispersion), after controlling for earnings quality, corporate governance, audit quality, stock price informativeness, and potential endogeneity. Our findings are important as they suggest that board diversity adds to the transparency and accuracy of financial reports such that earnings expectations are likely to be more accurate for these firms.

Investor protection, firm informational problems, big N auditors, and cost of debt around the world

This paper examines the effects of investor protection, firm informational problems (proxied by firm size, firm age, and the number of analysts following), and Big N auditors on firms' cost of debt around the world. Using data from 1994 to 2006 and over 90,000 firm-year observations, we find that the cost of debt is lower when firms are audited by Big N auditors, especially in countries with strong investor protection. Second, we find that firms with more informational problems (i.e., higher information asymmetry problems) benefit more from Big N auditors in terms of lower cost of debt only in countries with stronger investor protection.

Political connection and leverage: Some Malaysian evidence

This paper extends prior work on the linkage between politically connected (PCON) firms and capital structure in developing countries. Specifically, this paper focuses on the association between Malaysian PCON firms and leverage, and is motivated by the results of Fraser et al. (2006) who report a positive association between leverage and political patronage. Controlling for a potential misspecification in that paper, this study documents that a significant proportion (almost 12%) of the Malaysian PCON firms have negative equity, and builds on the previous paper by providing fresh evidence that market to book ratio is positively associated with leverage, and that borrowing PCON firms have significantly lower ROA compared to non-PCON firms. © 2012.