The welfare economics of measuring sustainability: a new approach based on social choice theory and systems analysis

This paper presents a new measure of sustainability within a welfare economics framework. Gross domestic product (GDP) can be used as an indicator of sustainability if the GDP estimates are undertaken within a cost-benefit analysis framework based on social choice perspectives. Sustainability is dependent on a healthy and functioning socio-economic and environmental (SEE) system. Economic development can damage the SEE system through resource degradation, over-harvesting and pollution. This paper addresses the tensions between economic development and sustainability by undertaking a number of SEE-based adjustments to GDP based on social choice perspectives in order to measure sustainability. These adjustments include the environmental and social costs caused by economic development such as water pollution, the depletion of non-renewable resources, and deforestation. Thailand is used as a case study for a 25 year period (1975-1999). The results show a divergence in terms of GDP per capita and the SEE-adjusted GDP per capita figure. The paper concludes that, with increasing environmental and social costs of economic development, pursuing such extreme high growth objectives without due environmental and social considerations can threaten present social welfare and future sustainability. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Economic analysis of a community-based falls prevention program

Objectives: To undertake a cost–benefit analysis of ‘Stay on Your Feet’, a community-based falls prevention program targeting older people at all levels of risk in New South Wales, Australia. Hospital separations were monitored in the intervention region, a control region and for the state of New South Wales as a whole. Changing admission patterns over the intervention period were used to assess the impact of the program.

Methods: Cost–benefit analysis compared the costs of the program with two estimates of savings from avoided hospital admissions. The first compared the cost of hospital admissions in the intervention region to a control region of similar demographics, while the second compared hospital utilization in the intervention region with the state of New South Wales as a whole using falls-related hospital diagnosis related group (DRG) codes.

Results: The total direct costs of the program were estimated at A$781 829. Both methods identified clear overall net benefits ranging from A$5.4 million for avoided hospitalizations alone to A$16.9 million for all avoided direct and indirect costs. The confidence intervals around these estimates were small. The average overall benefit to cost ratio for the intervention as a whole was 20.6:1.

Conclusions: These findings suggest that well-designed community-based interventions targeting falls prevention among older people are highly cost effective and a wise investment for all levels of government. The models used are conservative and are likely to underestimate the real benefit of the intervention, which may have lasted for some time beyond the life of the program.

Does self monitoring of blood blucose as opposed to urinalysis provide additional benefit in patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes receiving structured education? The DESMOND SMBG randomised controlled trial protocol

Background
The benefit of self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) in people with type 2 diabetes on diet or oral agents other than sulphonylureas remains uncertain. Trials of interventions incorporating education about self-monitoring of blood glucose have reported mixed results. A recent systematic review concluded that SMBG was not cost-effective. However, what was unclear was whether a cheaper method of self-monitoring (such as urine glucose monitoring) could produce comparable benefit and patient acceptability for less cost.

Methods/Design
The DESMOND SMBG trial is comparing two monitoring strategies (blood glucose monitoring and urine testing) over 18 months when incorporated into a comprehensive self-management structured education programme. It is a multi-site cluster randomised controlled trial, conducted across 8 sites (7 primary care trusts) in England, UK involving individuals with newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes.

The trial has 80% power to demonstrate equivalence in mean HbA1c (the primary end-point) at 18 months of within ± 0.5% assuming 20% drop out and 20% non-consent. Secondary end-points include blood pressure, lipids, body weight and psychosocial measures as well as a qualitative sub-study.

Practices were randomised to one of two arms: participants attend a DESMOND programme incorporating a module on self-monitoring of either urine or blood glucose. The programme is delivered by accredited educators who received specific training about equipoise. Biomedical data are collected and psychosocial scales completed at baseline, and 6, 12, and 18 months post programme. Qualitative research with participants and educators will explore views and experiences of the trial and preferences for methods of monitoring.

Discussion
The DESMOND SMBG trial is designed to provide evidence to inform the debate about the value of self-monitoring of blood glucose in people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Strengths include a setting in primary care, a cluster design, a health economic analysis, a comparison of different methods of monitoring while controlling for other components of training within the context of a quality assured structured education programme and a qualitative sub-study.

Challenges in translating scientific evidence into mandatory food fortification policy: an antipodean case study of the folate- neural tube defect relationship

Objective: To identify challenges in translating scientific evidence of a  nutrient and health relationship into mandatory food fortification policy.
Design: A case study approach was used in which available evidence  associated with the folate–neural tube defect relationship was reviewed against the Australia New Zealand Food Regulation Ministerial Council's Policy Guideline for mandatory food fortification. Results: Three particular challenges were identified. The first is knowing when and how to act in the face of scientific uncertainty. The second is knowing how to address the special needs of at-risk individuals without compromising the health and safety of the population as a whole. The third is to ensure that a policy is sufficiently monitored and evaluated. Conclusions: Despite the availability of compelling evidence of a relationship between a particular nutrient and a health outcome, a definitive policy response may not be apparent.  Judgement and interpretation inevitably play significant roles in influencing whether and how authorities translate scientific evidence into mandatory food fortification policy. In relation to the case study, it would be prudent to undertake a risk–benefit analysis of policy alternatives and to implement nutrition education activities to promote folic acid supplement use among the target group. Should mandatory folate fortification be implemented,  comprehensive monitoring and evaluation of this policy will be essential to know that it is implemented as planned and does more good than harm. In relation to mandatory food fortification policy-making around the world,  ongoing national nutrition surveys are required to complement national policy guidelines.

Best practice in stabilisation of oral endotracheal tubes : a systematic review

Mechanical ventilation of patients in intensive care units is common practice. Artificial airways are utilised to facilitate ventilation and the endotracheal tube (ETT) is most commonly used for this purpose. The ETT must be stabilised to optimise ventilation and avoid displacement or unplanned extubation. Tube movement is a major factor in causing airway trauma. A destabilised tube can cause fatal complications. A systematic review was conducted to identify and analyse the best available evidence on ETT stabilisation to determine which stabilisation method resulted in reduced tube displacement and the least amount of unplanned or accidental extubations. The types of stabilisations included one or a combination of the following methods: twill or cotton tape, adhesive tape, gauze, or a manufactured device. All relevant randomised controlled and quasi-experimental studies of ETT stabilisation practices, identified through electronic and hand searching, were assessed for inclusion in the study. One published randomised controlled trial and six published quasi-experimental studies met the inclusion and exclusion criteria and were retrieved. Data were extracted independently by two reviewers. Results of the systematic review showed that no single method of ETT stabilisation could be identified as superior for minimising tube displacement and unplanned or accidental extubations. Rigorous randomised controlled trials with clearly identified and described ETT stabilisation methods are required to establish best practice. In addition, comparative research to evaluate cost effectiveness and nursing time requirements would also be of significant benefit to critical care nursing practice.

Development and application of model of resource utilization, costs, and outcomes for stroke (MORUCOS): an Australian economic model for stroke.

Objectives: To outline the development, structure, data assumptions, and application of an Australian economic model for stroke (Model of Resource Utilization, Costs, and Outcomes for Stroke [MORUCOS]). Methods: The model has a linked spreadsheet format with four modules to describe the disease burden and treatment pathways, estimate prevalence-based and incidence-based costs, and derive life expectancy and quality of life consequences. The model uses patient-level, community-based, stroke cohort data and macro-level simulations. An interventions module allows options for change to be consistently evaluated by modifying aspects of the other modules. To date, model validation has included sensitivity testing, face validity, and peer review. Further validation of technical and predictive accuracy is needed. The generic pathway model was assessed by comparison with a stroke subtypes (ischemic, hemorrhagic, or undetermined) approach and used to determine the relative cost-effectiveness of four interventions. Results: The generic pathway model produced lower costs compared with a subtypes version (total average first-year costs/case AUD$15,117 versus AUD$17,786, respectively). Optimal evidence-based uptake of anticoagulation therapy for primary and secondary stroke prevention and intravenous thrombolytic therapy within 3 hours of stroke were more cost-effective than current practice (base year, 1997). Conclusions: MORUCOS is transparent and flexible in describing Australian stroke care and can effectively be used to systematically evaluate a range of different interventions. Adjusting results to account for stroke subtypes, as they influence cost estimates, could enhance the generic model.

Trial application of a model of resource utiliztion, costs, and outcomes for stroke (MORUCOS) to assist priority setting in stroke.

Background and Purpose— Cost-effectiveness data for stroke interventions are limited, and comparisons between studies are confounded by methodological inconsistencies. The aim of this study was to trial the use of the intervention module of the economic model, a Model of Resource Utilization, Costs, and Outcomes for Stroke (MORUCOS) to facilitate evaluation and ranking of the options.

Methods— The approach involves using an economic model together with added secondary considerations. A consistent approach was taken using standard economic evaluation methods. Data from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS) were used to model "current practice" (base case), against which 2 interventions were compared. A 2-stage process was used to measure benefit: health gains (expressed in disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and filter analysis. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated, and probabilistic uncertainty analysis was undertaken.

Results— Aspirin, a low-cost intervention applicable to a large number of stroke patients (9153 first-ever cases), resulted in modest health benefits (946 DALYs saved) and a mean ICER (based on incidence costs) of US $1421 per DALY saved. Although the health gains from recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator (rtPA) were less (155 DALYs saved), these results were impressive given the small number of persons (256) eligible for treatment. rtPA dominates current practice because it is more effective and cost-saving.

Conclusions— If used to assess interventions across the stroke care continuum, MORUCOS offers enormous capacity to support decision-making in the prioritising of stroke services.

Measuring social welfare: application of social choice theory

This paper questions conventional approaches to measuring social welfare through gross domestic product (GDP). This paper is divided into two parts. The first part adopts a systems approach to development and incorporates this into the theory of social choice. The second part operationalises this approach through the development of a cost-benefit adjusted gross domestic product (CBAGDP) social welfare function, which overcomes certain limitations of this traditional measure of development. The CBAGDP is then used to estimate welfare in Thailand. This approach is justified because of its normative values and its plausible results.

Assessing cost-effectiveness in mental health : vocational rehabilitation for schizophrenia and related conditions

Objective: Existing evidence suggests that vocational rehabilitation services, in particular individual placement and support (IPS), are effective in assisting people with schizophrenia and related conditions gain open employment. Despite this, such services are not available to all unemployed people with schizophrenia who wish to work. Existing evidence suggests that while IPS confers no clinical advantages over routine care, it does improve the proportion of people returning to employment. The objective of the current study is to investigate the net benefit of introducing IPS services into current mental health services in Australia.

Method: The net benefit of IPS is assessed from a health sector perspective using cost–benefit analysis. A two-stage approach is taken to the assessment of benefit. The first stage involves a quantitative analysis of the net benefit, defined as the benefits of IPS (comprising transfer payments averted, income tax accrued and individual income earned) minus the costs. The second stage involves application of 'second-filter' criteria (including equity, strength of evidence, feasibility and acceptability to stakeholders) to results. The robustness of results is tested using the multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

Results: The costs of IPS are $A10.3M (95% uncertainty interval $A7.4M–$A13.6M), the benefits are $A4.7M ($A3.1M–$A6.5M), resulting in a negative net benefit of $A5.6M ($A8.4M–$A3.4M).

Conclusions: The current analysis suggests that IPS costs are greater than the monetary benefits. However, the evidence-base of the current analysis is weak. Structural conditions surrounding welfare payments in Australia create disincentives to full-time employment for people with disabilities.

The relationship between economic development and social welfare: A new adjusted GDP measure of welfare

Existing literature focuses on the issue of preparation of social welfare measurements on the basis of an unadjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This paper extends this method to incorporate cost-benefit analysis of economic growth in a growing economy in calculating the adjusted GDP, termed as the cost-benefit (CB)-adjusted GDP. This approach is empirically applied to Thailand. There are stark differences between GDP per capita and CB adjusted GDP per capita rates for this period.This paper concludes that GDP can be used as an indicator of social welfare if the GDP estimates are undertaken within a cost-benefit analysis framework.

The use of analytic hierarchy process to incorporate stakeholder preferences into regional forest planning

Forest management decisions are often characterised by complexity, irreversibility and uncertainty. Much of the complexity arises from the multiple-use nature of forest goods and services, difficulty in monetary valuation of ecological services and the involvement of numerous stakeholders. Under these circumstances, conventional methods such as cost-benefit analysis are ill-suited to evaluate forest decisions. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), can be useful in regional forest planing as it can accommodate conflictual, multidimensional, incommensurable and incomparable set of objectives. The objective of this paper is to examine the scope and feasibility of the AHP in incorporating stakeholder preferences into regional forest planning. The Australian Regional Forest Agreement Programme is taken as an illustrative case for the analysis. The results show that the AHP can formalize public participation in decision making and increase the transparency and the credibility of the process.