157 resultados para Bayesian Modelling, Public Health, Environmental Risk, lung cancer, asbestos, smoking

em Deakin Research Online - Australia


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Background: The proportion of Australian adults achieving physical activity levels believed to be sufficient for colon cancer prevention was estimated, and sociodemographic correlates (age, gender, educational attainment, occupation, marital status, and children in household) of meeting these levels of activity were analyzed.

Methods: Data from the 2000 National Physical Activity Survey were used to estimate the prevalence of participation in physical activity in relation to three criteria: generic public health recommendations, weekly amount of at least moderate-intensity physical activity currently believed to reduce risk of colon cancer, and weekly amount of vigorous-intensity physical activity believed to reduce risk of colon cancer.

Results: Overall, 46% of adults met the generic public health criterion, 26% met the colon cancer criterion based on participation in at least moderate-intensity physical activity, and 10% met the colon cancer criterion based on vigorous-intensity physical activity. Women were less likely than men to meet the colon cancer criteria. Younger and more educated persons were more likely to meet all three criteria. The most pronounced differences between gender, age, and educational attainment groups were found for meeting the amount of vigorous-intensity physical activity believed to reduce risk of colon cancer.

Conclusions: The population prevalence for meeting proposed physical activity criteria for colon cancer prevention is low and much lower than that related to the more generic public health recommendations. If further epidemiologic studies confirm that high volumes and intensities of activity are required, the public health challenges for colon cancer will be significant.


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The aim of this paper was to see whether all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates vary between Asian ethnic subgroups, and whether overseas born Asian subgroup mortality rate ratios varied by nativity and duration of residence. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to allow for sparse data in the analysis of linked census-mortality data for 25-75 year old New Zealanders. We found directly standardised posterior all-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were highest for the Indian ethnic group, significantly so when compared with those of Chinese ethnicity. In contrast, cancer mortality rates were lowest for ethnic Indians. Asian overseas born subgroups have about 70% of the mortality rate of their New Zealand born Asian counterparts, a result that showed little variation by Asian subgroup or cause of death. Within the overseas born population, all-cause mortality rates for migrants living 0-9 years in New Zealand were about 60% of the mortality rate of those living more than 25 years in New Zealand regardless of ethnicity. The corresponding figure for cardiovascular mortality rates was 50%. However, while Chinese cancer mortality rates increased with duration of residence, Indian and Other Asian cancer mortality rates did not. Future research on the mechanisms of worsening of health with increased time spent in the host country is required to improve the understanding of the process, and would assist the policy-makers and health planners.

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Within the multi-disciplinary team concerned with child and adolescent development, speech pathologists are uniquely positioned to understand the nature and overall developmental significance of language acquisition in childhood and adolescence. Other disciplines contribute valuable insights about psychosocial development during the childhood and adolescent years. The field of developmental psychology, for example provides a large and convincing body of evidence about the role of academic success as a protective factor against a range of psychosocial harms, in particular substance misuse, truancy, early school leaving, and juvenile offending. In this paper, we argue that juvenile offending embodies the notion of "adolescent risk", but in Australia in particular, has been under-investigated with respect to possible associations with developmental language disorders and subsequent academic failure. We present findings pertaining to a sample of 30 male juvenile offenders completing community based orders. Performance on a range of oral language processing and production skills was poorer than that of a demographically similar comparison group. Our results confirm the need to conceptualize language within a broader risk and protective framework. We therefore emphasize the public health importance of early language competence, by virtue of the psychosocial protection it confers on young people with respect to the development of prosocial skills, transition to literacy and overall academic achievement. We argue that speech pathologists are best positioned to advocate at a policy level about the broader public health importance of oral language competence.

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Introduction:
Low dose spiral computed tomography (CT) is a sensitive screening tool for lung cancer that is currently being evaluated in both non-randomised studies and randomised controlled trials.
Methods:
We conducted a quantitative decision analysis using a Markov model to determine whether, in the Australian setting, offering spiral CT screening for lung cancer to high risk individuals would be cost-effective compared with current practice. This exploratory analysis was undertaken predominantly from the perspective of the government as third-party funder. In the base-case analysis, the costs and health outcomes (life-years saved and quality-adjusted life years) were calculated in a hypothetical cohort of 10,000 male current smokers for two alternatives: (1) screen for lung cancer with annual CT for 5 years starting at age 60 year and treat those diagnosed with cancer or (2) no screening and treat only those who present with symptomatic cancer.
Results:
For male smokers aged 60–64 years, with an annual incidence of lung cancer of 552 per 100,000, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $57,325 per life-year saved and $105,090 per QALY saved. For females aged 60–64 years with the same annual incidence of lung cancer, the cost-effectiveness ratio was $51,001 per life-year saved and $88,583 per QALY saved. The model was used to examine the relationship between efficacy in terms of the expected reduction in lung cancer mortality at 7 years and cost-effectiveness. In the base-case analysis lung cancer mortality was reduced by 27% and all cause mortality by 2.1%. Changes in the estimated proportion of stage I cancers detected by screening had the greatest impact on the efficacy of the intervention and the cost-effectiveness. The results were also sensitive to assumptions about the test performance characteristics of CT scanning, the proportion of lung cancer cases overdiagnosed by screening, intervention rates for benign disease, the discount rate, the cost of CT, the quality of life in individuals with early stage screen-detected cancer and disutility associated with false positive diagnoses. Given current knowledge and practice, even under favourable assumptions, reductions in lung cancer mortality of less than 20% are unlikely to be cost-effective, using a value of $50,000 per life-year saved as the threshold to define a “cost-effective” intervention.
Conclusion:
The most feasible scenario under which CT screening for lung cancer could be cost-effective would be if very high-risk individuals are targeted and screening is either highly effective or CT screening costs fall substantially.

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Radical changes in the biosphere and human interaction with the environment are increasingly impacting on the health of populations across the world. Diseases are crossing the species barrier, and spreading rapidly through globalized transport systems. From new patterns of cancer to the threat of global pandemics, it is imperative that public health practitioners acknowledge the interdependence between the sustainability of the environment and the sustainability of the human species.* Why are issues of global and local sustainability of increasing importance to the public's health?* Why do issues of sustainability require new practices within the professions of public health?* How can future and current public health practitioners develop those new practices?Drawing on scientific evidence of global and local environmental changes, Sustainability and Health offers a thorough background and practical solutions to the overlapping issues in environment and health. It examines potential and existing responses to global and local environment and health issues, involving individuals, community, industry and government. The authors introduce a range of emerging conceptual frameworks and theoretical perspectives, link IT and epidemiology and explain how scoping can link program design, delivery, data collection and evaluation in projects from their very beginning. Public health practitioners need to be able to manage health issues that cut across environmental, economic and social systems and to develop the capacity for leadership in facilitating change. Incorporating learning activities, readings, international case studies and an open learning approach, this is a valuable resource for students of public and environmental health, as well as medical, environmental and health science professionals.

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More than 22 million children under five are now obese or overweight. Globally, an estimated 10% of school-aged children, between five and 17 years old, are overweight or obese, and the situation is getting worse. Although recognised clinically for some time as an important condition that increases risk of ill-health in affected individuals, it is only recently, that obesity has been recognised as a population-wide problem that requires preventive action. Obesity is a major contributor to diseases and disability, the associated health costs are enormous, obesity has already reached epidemic proportions in many countries, and incidence is continuing to increase in children and adults. Disturbingly the epidemic is not confined to developed countries, with many developing countries and those in transition affected. While recognised as a major population health problem, our understanding of the causes of the epidemic is poor, there has been relatively little population-based research that has focused on the prevention of unhealthy weight gain, and as a consequence knowledge regarding how and where best to intervene is limited. This book draws together the existing literature and expertise and with a view to helping set the agenda for public health action. The book is divided into three sections. Part 1 provides an overview of the context of the problem. It examines the epidemiology of obesity, the role of behavioural factors, socio-cultural factors and environmental factors in the obesity epidemic. Part 2 reviews interventions across a range of key settings and in different population groups - drawing on existing research that has aimed to increase physical activity, promote healthy eating and prevent obesity at a population level. Given how little research there is that has specifically examined the effectiveness of interventions aimed at preventing obesity per se, Part 3 explores potential opportunities to prevent obesity

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A large proportion of non-communicable disease can be attributed to modifiable risk factors such as poor nutrition and physical inactivity. We present data on planning and transport practitioners' perceptions and responses to government public health guidance aimed at modifying environmental factors to promote physical activity. This study was informed by questions on the role of evidence-based guidance, the views of professionals towards the guidance, the links between guidance and existing legislation and policy and the practicality of guidelines. A key informant 'snowball' sampling technique was used to recruit participants from the main professional planning organisations across England. Seventy-six people were interviewed in eight focus groups. We found that evidence-based public health guidance is a new voice in urban and town planning, although much of the advice is already reflected by the 'accepted wisdom' of these professions. Evidence-based health guidance could be a powerful driver affecting planning practice, but other legislated planning guidance may take priority for planning and transport professionals.

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Aims: To detail and validate a simulation model that describes the dynamics of cannabis use, including its probable causal relationships with schizophrenia, road traffic accidents (RTA) and heroin/poly-drug use (HPU).

Methods: A Markov model with 17 health-states was constructed. Annual cycles were used to simulate the initiation of cannabis use, progression in use, reduction and complete remission. The probabilities of transition between health-states were derived from observational data. Following 10-year-old Australian children for 90 years, the model estimated age-specific prevalence for cannabis use. By applying the relative risks according to the extent of cannabis use, the age-specific prevalence of schizophrenia and HPU, and the annual RTA incidence and fatality rate were also estimated. Predictive validity of the model was tested by comparing modelled outputs with data from other credible sources. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to evaluate technical validity and face validity.

Results: The estimated cannabis use prevalence in individuals aged 10-65 years was 12.2% which comprised 27.4% weekly and 18.0% daily users. The modelled prevalence and age profile were comparable to the reported cross-sectional data. The model also provided good approximations to the prevalence of schizophrenia (Modelled: 4.75/1,000 persons vs Observed: 4.6/1,000 persons), HPU (3.2/1,000 vs 3.1/1,000) and the RTA fatality rate (8.1 per 100,000 vs 8.2 per 100,000). Sensitivity analyses and scenario analysis provided expected and explainable trends.

Conclusions: The validated model provides a valuable tool to assess the likely effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions designed to affect patterns of cannabis use. It can be updated as new data becomes available and/or applied to other countries.

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This article reports on an investigation of the public health utility of media messages concerning spates (temporal clusters) of heroin-related overdose (HOD) from the perspective of some injecting drug users (IDUs). In-depth qualitative interviews were carried out with a convenience sample of 60 IDUs, in the setting of two Needle and Syringe Programs in an Australian regional city (Geelong) between April and May 2000. Very few interviewees reported that they had personally experienced a spate of overdoses. None of the interviewees reported communicating the existence of a killer batch to other IDUs. No interviewees reported having changed either their injecting practices or the amount of heroin they used following such a media alert. Indeed, a substantial minority of the interviewees reported seeking out these stronger batches and participant narratives illustrate that, for a substantial group of interviewees, the media reporting of a hypothetical 'killer batch' of heroin may have implications for their drug-seeking and health-related behaviour. It was found that the accuracy of information available to IDUs is mixed and that the flow of information within this social network was slow. Findings demonstrate that media reporting of killer batches of heroin has little value as a public health strategy and provide an example of how some activities that are proposed as public health measures may in fact have the opposite effect.

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During the 19th and early 20th century, public health and genetics shared common ground through similar approaches to health promotion in the population. By the mid-20th century there was a division between public health and genetics, with eugenicists estranged and clinical genetics focused on single gene disorders, usually only relevant to small numbers of people. Now through a common interest in the aetiology of complex diseases such as heart disease and cancer, there is a need for people working in public health and genetics to collaborate. This is not a comfortable convergence for many, particularly those in public health. Nine main concerns are reviewed: fear of eugenics; genetic reductionism; predictive power of genes; non-modifiable risk factors; rights of individuals compared with populations; resource allocation; commercial imperative; discrimination; and understanding and education. This paper aims to contribute to the thinking and discussion about an evolutionary, multidisciplinary approach to understanding, preventing, and treating complex diseases.

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BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:


Food is responsible for around one-fifth of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from products consumed in the UK, the largest contributor of which is meat and dairy. The Committee on Climate Change have modelled the impact on GHG emissions of three dietary scenarios for food consumption in the UK. This paper models the impact of the three scenarios on mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer.
SUBJECTS/METHODS:


A previously published model (DIETRON) was used. The three scenarios were parameterised by fruit and vegetables, fibre, total fat, saturated fat, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, cholesterol and salt using the 2008 Family Food Survey. A Monte Carlo simulation generated 95% credible intervals.
RESULTS:


Scenario 1 (50% reduction in meat and dairy replaced by fruit, vegetables and cereals: 19% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 36 910 (30 192 to 43 592) deaths delayed or averted per year. Scenario 2 (75% reduction in cow and sheep meat replaced by pigs and poultry: 9% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 1999 (1739 to 2389) deaths delayed or averted. Scenario 3 (50% reduction in pigs and poultry replaced with fruit, vegetables and cereals: 3% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 9297 (7288 to 11 301) deaths delayed or averted.
CONCLUSION:


Modelled results suggest that public health and climate change dietary goals are in broad alignment with the largest results in both domains occurring when consumption of all meat and dairy products are reduced. Further work in real-life settings is needed to confirm these results.

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BACKGROUND: Controlling obesity has become one of the highest priorities for public health practitioners in developed countries. In the absence of safe, effective and widely accessible high-risk approaches (e.g. drugs and surgery) attention has focussed on community-based approaches and social marketing campaigns as the most appropriate form of intervention. However there is limited evidence in support of substantial effectiveness of such interventions.

DISCUSSION: To date there is little evidence that community-based interventions and social marketing campaigns specifically targeting obesity provide substantial or lasting benefit. Concerns have been raised about potential negative effects created by a focus of these interventions on body shape and size, and of the associated media targeting of obesity.

SUMMARY: A more appropriate strategy would be to enact high-level policy and legislative changes to alter the obesogenic environments in which we live by providing incentives for healthy eating and increased levels of physical activity. Research is also needed to improve treatments available for individuals already obese.

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Throughout the 1990s, public hospitals embarked on a range of benchmarking exercises for support services, often accompanied by downsizing and, in some cases, outsourcing. These support services included clinical areas such as, radiology, pharmacy and pathology, and nonclinical areas of catering and cleaning, engineering and environmental services. The impetus for this trend was the introduction of the Federal Governments National Competition Policy with its rationale that private sector pressures and competition would make the public sector more efficient.
Through a case study approach, this paper discusses this process at two public hospitals, the aim being to investigate the reasons for outsourcing, outsourcings interconnectedness with downsizing, and the implications at the workforce level. Workplace issues discussed include consultation between management, unions and employees, changes to employee numbers and work practices, maintenance of workplace conditions, implications for staff recruitment and retention, and the relative power of management and unions. It concludes that benchmarking, outsourcing and downsizing have all been used to bring about workplace change. Whilst the choice between processes may be dependent on management perception of the workplace environment, implications for the workplace from each process have been similar.

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There have been few longitudinal studies of quality of life in patients with all stages of lung cancer, particularly those that have included measures of utility. The purpose of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of the Assessment of Quality of Life instrument (AQoL) in patients with lung cancer. The AQoL is a health-related quality of life questionnaire and provides a descriptive system for a multi-attribute utility instrument (MAU), so that scores can be used in cost-utility evaluations. In the present study the reliability (internal consistency) of the AQoL was examined and the concurrent validity was assessed using the Medical Outcomes 36-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) as the comparator instrument. The sensitivity to different health states of the AQoL and the responsiveness to change over time was also examined. A prospective, non-experimental cohort study was undertaken. Ninety-two participants with all stages of lung cancer were recruited from a tertiary multi-disciplinary lung cancer clinic. Ninety participants had non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and two had limited stage small cell lung cancer. The AQOL and SF-36 surveys were administered concurrently at baseline. In patients with NSCLC the surveys were then repeated 3 and 6 months later. Correlations between the baseline AQoL summary scales and SF-36 summary scales support the divergent and convergent validity of the AQoL. Reliability was also found to be sufficient (Cronbach's Alpha = 0.76). In addition, in patients with inoperable NSCLC, baseline AQoL scores were found to be predictive of survival at 6 months in Cox proportional hazards multivariate analysis. However, the physical components summary score of the SF-36 was more sensitive to differences in health states between patients with different stages of NSCLC at 6 months of follow-up and more responsive to change over time in both operable and inoperable patients with NSCLC than the AQoL. The findings support the construct validity and reliability of the AQoL in this population. However, there remains some uncertainty about whether the AQoL has sufficient sensitivity to different health states in this population. Further studies using other MAU instruments may determine whether alternative instruments are more sensitive to different health states in individuals with lung cancer.

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Recent political, economic and social trends pose threats to the sustainability both of ecosystems and of human health. Australia’s environmental management record is poor, and while by international standards Australians enjoy good health, this is variable (AIHW, 2000). Within developed nations, heart disease, depression, alcohol dependence and stroke are major health issues (Mathers et al. 2002). In Australia, mental disorder is the number one contributor to the disease burden (Vos & Mathers 2000). Recent research has highlighted the role of social capital as a key determinant of health (Kawachi et al., 1997). Despite this, Putnam (1995) observes that social connectedness and civic engagement are in decline. People have less time for leisure and for volunteering, as many juggle paid work and caring for children. Anecdotal evidence suggests that engagement in civic environmentalism has human health benefits, relating to a combination of exposure to natural environments and increased social capital (Maller, Brown, Townsend & St. Leger, 2002). This link is supported by Furnass (1996) who defines well-being as including: satisfactory human relationships, meaningful occupation, opportunities for contact with nature, creative expression, and making a positive contribution to human society. Research conducted by Deakin University confirms the efficacy of linking people and places through civic environmentalism for addressing both ecosystem sustainability and human health and wellbeing. The research has included a pilot study to explore the human health benefits of membership of a local parkland ‘Friends’ group, and a more detailed follow-up study. The aims of the pilot study included:- To identify the range of motivations for joining the Friends group;- To document members’ perceptions of the benefits gained from membership of the group;- To assess the potential for Friends groups to be used as an ‘upstream’ health promotion measure.Face-to-face interviews were conducted with eleven members of a ‘Friends’ group in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Data was analysed thematically and key findings included:- Motivations: environmental; social; and pragmatic.- General benefits: community belonging; personal satisfaction; learning opportunities; physical activity; and better environment.- Health benefits: physical health; mental health; and social support. There was unanimous support for the use of ‘Friends’ groups as a tool for health promotion.The follow-up study, in the western suburbs of Melbourne, expanded on the pilot study by measuring the group’s social capital and by collecting self-report data on levels of health service usage. Data was collected through face-to-face interviews and a questionnaire. The findings were similar to the pilot study in relation to the motivations, benefits and the health promotion potential of such groups. However, health service usage data highlighted an apparent anomaly: while respondents perceived significant health benefits, some were nevertheless utilising health services at a relatively high level. This poses some questions requiring further exploration: Is this due to the poorer baseline health of the high health service usage members compared with their fellow members? Does involvement in the group offer health benefits that enable people who would otherwise be too unhealthy to participate in community groups to continue such involvement?If this is the case, then we may do well to look to locally-based mechanisms for promoting ecological sustainability as a tool also for promoting human health. Instead of prescribing a pill, connecting people and places through engagement with a local friends group may address our health problems at the same time as addressing local environmental problems.