Aggregate planning for seasonal demand : reconciling theory with practice

Purpose: The paper reports on the ramifications for production planning when monthly sales exhibit predictable seasonal highs and lows. The literature first acknowledged and dealt with the (aggregate planning) problem 50 years ago. Nevertheless, there is neither evidence that industry has adopted any of the mathematical techniques that were subsequently developed, nor a convincing explanation as to why not. Hence this research sets out to discover the methods manufacturers use to cope with seasonal demand, and how germane the published algorithms really are.

Design/methodology/approach: Forty-two case studies were compiled by interviewing senior managers and then conducting plant tours. No prior assumptions were made and the list of questions covered the gamut of production planning.

Findings: The main finding is that manufacturers select a straightforward production strategy, right from the outset, so the fundamental cost-balancing format is not relevant. The majority pick a “chase” strategy, since most organizations subscribe to a “just in time” ethos. Whenever a different strategy is preferred the rationale springs from skilled labour considerations or binding facilities constraints. The chosen strategy serves as a road map for resources acquisitions, and the master production schedule is constructed directly. So, the complex issue of how to disaggregate an optimal aggregate plan never even arises. Managers do not seek perfect solutions, but strive to eliminate, or contain, the most significant marginal costs. The nature of the business determines the most appropriate tactics to employ.

Originality/value: These findings break the mould as far as orthodox aggregate planning is concerned and show why theory is at odds with practice, whilst reaffirming the importance of concepts such as “flexibility”, “integration”, and “just-in-time production”.

Organizational change in the public sector: augmenting the demand control model to predict employee outcomes under New Public Management

This study identifies the environmental and personal characteristics that predict employee outcomes within an Australian public sector organization that had, under New Public Management (NPM), implemented a variety of practices traditionally found in the private sector. These are more results-oriented, and their adoption can be accompanied by increased strain for employees. The current investigation was guided by two complementary theories, the Demand Control Support (DCS) model and Conservation of Resources (COR) theory, and sought to examine the benefits of building on the DCS to include both situation-specific stressors and internal coping resources. Survey responses from 1,155 employees were analysed. The hierarchical regression analyses indicated that both external and employee-centred variables made significant contributions to variations in psychological health, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment. The external resources, work based support and, to a lesser extent, job control, predicted relatively large proportions of the variance in the target variables. The situation-specific stressors, particularly those involving harmful management practices (e.g., insufficient time to do job as well as you would like, lack of recognition for good work), made significant contributions to the outcome measures and generally supported the process of augmenting the generic components of the DCS with more situation-specific variables. In terms of internal resources, problem and emotion-based coping improved the capacity of the model to predict psychological health. The results suggest that the impact of NPM can be ameliorated by incorporating the dimensions of the augmented DCS and coping resources into the change programme.

Measuring consumer involvement : a test of the automobile involvement scale

This study empirically investigated consumer involvement with a product class. Data was collected from 178 vehicle buyers. Reliability and factor analyses investigated the structure of the Bloch (1981) instrument and the dimensions underlying involvement. In terms of replication, the results suggest the reduced-item version of the instrument previously proposed by Shimp and Sharma (1983) is reliable and is a less excessive measurement instrument. Similar dimensions underlying involvement with the product class are reported here. The study extends previous work by obtaining similar results in a different cultural setting, producing findings from a more relevant sample, applying an additional method of data collection, and suggesting that the underlying dimensions may be temporally stable.

Energy efficient on-demand addressing for wireless sensor networks

Conserving of battery power is a critical requirement in WSNs. Past studies have shown that the transceiving process consumes more energy than the internal processing. This work focuses on eliminating overhead messages used for address allocation by employing multiple base-stations. In this context we explore address allocation without Duplicate Address Detection (DAD). We present an alternative approach to Duplicate address detection using the sink as an address pool to maintain and systematize available addresses. Experimental results show that this approach eliminates overhead messages generated by DAD; resulting in energy savings when used in conjunction with an on-demand address allocation mechanism.

Obesity prevention programs demand high-quality evaluations

Obesity prevention programs are at last underway or being planned in Australia and New Zealand. However, it is imperative that they are well-evaluated so that they can contribute to continuous program improvement and add much-needed evidence to the international literature on what works and does not work to prevent obesity. Three critical components of program evaluation are especially at risk when the funding comes from service delivery rather than research sources. These are: the need for comparison groups; the need for measured height and weight; and the need for sufficient process and context information. There is an important opportunity to build collaborative mechanisms across community-based obesity prevention sites to enhance the program and evaluation quality and to accelerate knowledge translation into practice and policy.

A panel cointegration analysis of the demand for oil in the Middle East

This article applies recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques to estimate the long-run income and price elasticities for oil in the Middle East. The results for the panel indicate that demand for oil is highly price inelastic and slightly income elastic in the Middle East. There is considerable variation in the results for the income variable across countries, with the coefficient on the income variable statistically insignificant for several countries. The coefficient on the price variable is statistically significant in all cases with the expected sign and the price elasticity is uniformly low. While the results for the income variable differ across countries, the results for the panel as a whole suggest that the demand for oil in the Middle East is being driven largely by strong economic growth, while consumers are largely insensitive to price changes.

Variation in maternal provisioning by lactating Antarctic fur seals: response to experimental manipulation in pup demand

An experiment involving the supplementary feeding of pups was conducted on Antarctic fur seals to investigate the factors influencing maternal foraging-attendance cycles and the differential use of nutritional resources for growth, maintenance and storage by pups. For 40% of the lactation period, male pups were given a supplement mimicking the chemical composition of Antarctic fur seal milk at a dose equivalent to 35% of the normal mass-specific milk energy intake for the species. Milk consumption, body composition and growth rates were monitored during and after the supplementary feeding period and maternal foraging-attendance cycles were monitored throughout lactation. During the supplementary feeding period, treatment pups (n=8) grew 32% faster and deposited greater adipose tissue stores than controls (n=8) but consumed the same amount of maternal-delivered milk. When supplementary feeding was stopped (timed to coincide with peak maternal milk yield in this species), treatment pups lost mass whereas control group pups continued to grow. Treatment pups weaned at a younger age (109 days) than control pups (116 days) but at the same mass (13 kg). Maternal attendance durations did not differ between the treatment and control groups throughout lactation. However, mothers of treatment pups had significantly shorter foraging trip durations (3.74 days) than mothers of control pups (4.74 days) during the period of supplementary feeding (there were no significant differences throughout the rest of lactation). These findings are in accordance with predictions of a marginal-value model of fur seal lactation behaviour.

Full house theory: A new theory for assessing demand for arts centers

In this article I will establish an underpinning theory to apply in measuring demand for a new arts center (theater, museum, gallery, multipurpose space, tourism destination, or cultural precinct). The new theory is called "Full House Theory"-so called because it aims to provide an equation among the factors that result in maximum occupancy and use of an arts center or cultural facility. Existing theories used in the retail sector offer a distance-and-time analysis of expected customer demand but do not include differentiated product-demand analysis. Cultural planning literature examines community need in relation to cultural development but fails to provide a formula to predict sustainable demand. In addition, I will analyze the theories and methodologies in current use as well as their weaknesses in assessing cultural facility demand.

Modelling regular and estimable inverse demand systems : a distance function approach

To be useful for policy simulation in the current climate of rapid structural change, inverse demand systems must remain regular over substanstial variations in quantities. The distance function is a convenient vehicle for generating such systems. It also allows convenient imposition of prior ideas about the structure of preferences required for realistic policy work. While the distance function directly yields Hicksian inverse demand functions via the Shepard-Hanoch lemma, they are usually explicit in the unobservable level of utility (u), but lack a closed-form representation in terms of the observable variables. Note however that the unobservability of u need not hinder estimation. A simple one-dimensional numerical inversion allows the estimation of the distance function via the parameters of the implied Marshallian inverse demand functions. This paper develops the formal theory for using distance functions in this context, and reports on initial trials on the operational feasibility of the method.

Full house theory – a new theory for assessing demand for arts centres

Discusses the Full House Theory, a theory for measuring the demand for new arts centers. Information on the Central Place Theory; Implementation of cultural mapping techniques in assessing the demand for arts centers; Marketing research methodologies.