Linking future ecosystem services and future human well-being

Ecosystem services are necessary, yet not sufficient for human well-being (however defined). Insufficient access to the ecosystem provisioning service of food is a particularly important factor in the loss of human well-being, but all ecosystem services contribute in some way to well-being. Although perhaps long obvious to ecologists, the links between ecosystems and aspects of human well-being, including health, have been less well understood among the social science community. This situation may now be starting to change, thanks in part to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). Causality between ecosystem services and well-being is bidirectional; it is increasingly clear that functioning societies can protect or enhance ecosystem services, and accordingly, that societies with impaired well-being (best documented in the case of chronic diseases such as malaria and HIV/AIDS) can also experience a related decline in ecosystem services.

The future state of human well-being and of ecosystem services is more than the co-evolution of these two fundamental elements. Human well-being also depends, critically, upon the human institutions that govern relationships between human individuals and groups, and also between humans and ecosystem services.

The scenarios working group of the MA found that human well-being is highest in the Global Orchestration scenario, which assumes the fastest evolution of beneficial institutions, and is lowest in the Order from Strength scenario. Human well-being was found to be intermediate in the other two scenarios (Adapting Mosaic and Techno-Garden) even though these scenarios share a much greater recognition of the importance of ecosystem services to human well-being.

Perceptions of climate change and adaptation responses in a local community : the Barwon Estuary Complex, Victoria

The climate change focus in Australia has shifted from mitigation to adaptation with an emphasis on place-specific case studies. The Barwon Estuary Complex (BEC) on the Bellarine Peninsula, central Victoria, was the focus of this place-specific study in which 37 local stakeholders were consulted through a series of semi-structured interviews on the impacts of climate change on their coastal community. Overall there was uniformity in stakeholder perceptions of the climate change impacts and vulnerabilities pertaining to the BEC. In contrast, discussion on adaptation drew a diversity of responses. While 53 per cent of stakeholders indicated a need to limit the use of hard structures, and rather plan around a changing estuarine environment, opinion amongst the community group was divided. Some believed ‘retreat is the only option’ whilst others felt ‘there won’t be much leaving’. The present level of confusion around adaptation highlights the imperative of commencing discussions now to allow sufficient time to develop strategies which are both environmentally and socially responsible. This is important as ultimately it will be the community that will determine whether adaptation strategies are adopted or met with resistance.

Religion as a means of resilience and adjustment to chronic illness

This qualitative study describes the understanding of health and belief practices among elderly Greek Australians. In particular, the role of religion is discussed as a means of resilience and adjustment to illness, as religious faith often influences individual’s thoughts, feelings, and how they may accept or understand their particular health condition. Adjustment has a strong psychological or emotional component that is likely to be affected by culturally determined conceptualizations of health. As such, the particular background of a population may be very significant in the level and means of adaptation of individuals and groups.

‘Be yourself and have a ball’ : using a school and community based health education model to build young women’s resilience and connectedness

Recognition of the important role schools play in the promotion of student wellbeing can be seen in the growing number of polices and programs being implemented in schools across the Australia. This paper reports on some initial data from focus group interviews with year 9 and 10 girls involved in the pilot of a health and physical activity intervention designed to connect them to their local community and reconnect them with their school and their peers. The aim of the program was to build connectedness and resilience by engaging young women in non-traditional physical activities whilst providing them with a sound understanding of health issues relevant to adolescent girls. Situated in a relatively isolated rural community 200 kilometers south east of Melbourne the program was overwhelmingly delivered by regional and local agencies in conjunction with the local secondary school. The intervention was built on a partnerships model designed with the purpose of increasing participation and access for young women whilst building a sustainable program run in partnership between the school and local agencies and services. The initial data from this pilot indicates the program is having a positive impact on the young women’s sense of self and their bodies, their relationships with their peers and in reducing bullying behaviour amongst the girls. However the data raises some important questions around the adequacy of school-based health education, and the sustainability of approaches designed to be delivered by outside agencies rather than classroom teachers.

Living with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neurone disease (ALS/MND) : decision-making about 'ongoing change and adaptation

Aims and objectives. To present a model that explicates the dimensions of change and adaptation as revealed by people who are diagnosed and live with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neurone disease.

Background. Most research about amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neurone disease is medically focused on cause and cure for the illness. Although psychological studies have sought to understand the illness experience through questionnaires, little is known about the experience of living with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neurone disease as described by people with the disease.

Design. A grounded theory method of simultaneous data collection and constant comparative analysis was chosen for the conduct of this study.

Methods. Data collection involved in-depth interviews, electronic correspondence, field notes, as well as stories, prose, songs and photographs important to participants. QSR NVivo 2® software was used to manage the data and modelling used to illustrate concepts.

Findings. Participants used a cyclic, decision-making pattern about 'ongoing change and adaptation' as they lived with the disease. This pattern formed the basis of the model that is presented in this paper.

Conclusion. The lives of people living with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neurone disease revolve around the need to make decisions about how to live with the disease progression and their deteriorating abilities. Life decisions were negotiated by participants to maintain a sense of self and well-being in the face of change.

Relevance to clinical practice. The 'ongoing change and adaptation' model is a framework that can guide practitioners to understand the decision-making processes of people living with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neurone disease. Such understanding will enhance caring and promote models of care that are person-centred. The model may also have relevance for people with other life limiting diseases and their care.

Thresholds, incidence functions, and species-specific cues : responses of woodland birds to landscape structure in south-eastern Australia

Looking out from a vantage point across a large tract of forest gives a superficial impression of uniformity: the crowns of canopy trees follow the folds and contours of the landscape to provide a continuous cover of wooded vegetation. But this visual appearance belies the truth: forested landscapes are far from uniform. On closer examination, they comprise a complex mosaic of different vegetation types and and stands of different age-classes, differing structural features, and modified to a varying extent by human land-uses. Forests have a critical role in the conservation of biodiversity throughout the world (Peterken 1996; Laurance and Bierregard 1997; Lindenmayer and Franklin 2002) and a key feature contributing to their conservation value is the response of forest biota to the heterogeneity inherent in forested landscapes (Lindenmayer et al. 2006). Consequently, an understanding of the implications of landscape structure for the maintainance of species and ecological processes is an important foundation for forest management and biodiversity conservation.

Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh : an agent-based approach

Bangladesh exemplifies the complex challenges facing densely populated coastal regions. The
pressures on the country are immense: around 145 million people live within an area of just 145,000 sq-km at
the confluence of three major river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. While progress
has been made, poverty remains widespread, with around 39% of children under five malnourished. Most of
its land-mass lies below 10m above sea level with considerable areas at sea level, leading to frequent and
prolonged flooding during the monsoons. Sea level rise is leading to more flooding as storm surges rise off
higher sea levels, pushing further inland. Higher sea levels also result in salt-water intrusion into freshwater
coastal aquifers and estuaries, contaminating drinking water and farmland. Warmer ocean waters are also
expected to lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.
Bangladesh depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall which is expected to
increase, leading to more flooding. Climate scientists are also concerned about the stability of monsoon and
the potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase shift to a drier regime. Bangladesh faces an additional
hydrological challenge in that the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
region, where glaciers are melting rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s, by which time
the glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-km to an expected 100,000 sqkm.
After the 2030s, river flows could drop dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into
seasonal monsoon-fed rivers. The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more
than a billion people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30% in
South Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face
substantial challenges in the coming decades.
In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges facing Bangladesh,
an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model (ABM) permits the dynamic
interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic, environmental and epidemiological dimensions of
climate change impacts and adaptation policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these
dimensions, including nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or
epidemics, is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches.
We are developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic impacts on poverty,
migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2100. The model employs
GIS and sub-district level census and economic data and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model
statistics to be generated on a national scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more
realistic treatment of distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to
generate precise predictions of Bangladesh’s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used for
integrated scenario exploration. This paper represents an initial report on progress on this project. So far the
prototype model has demonstrated the desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of
the complex adaptive system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed
policy-oriented model.