Forecasting inflation, industrial output and exchange rates : a template study for India

This paper reports results from a forecasting study for inflation, industrial output and exchange rates for India. We cannot reject the null hypothesis for linearity for all series used except for the growth rate of the foreign exchange series and our analysis is based on linear models, ARIMA and bivariate transfer functions and restricted VAR. Forecasting performance is evaluated using the models’ root mean-squared error differences and Theil’s inequality coefficients from recursive origin static, fixed origin dynamic and rolling origin dynamic forecasts. For models based on weekly data, based on RMSEs, we find that the bivariate models improve upon the forecasts of the ARIMA model while for models based on monthly data the ARIMA model has almost always better performance. In choosing between the two bivariate models on the basis of RMSEs, our overall results tend to support the use of a restricted VAR, as this model had the best forecasting performance more frequently than the transfer function model.

Event that never happened : the history and politics of decentralisation in Victoria and New South Wales 1885-1985

The thesis is an account of movements and policies for decentralisation of population and economic activity away from metropolitan to non-metropolitan areas in Victoria and N.S.W. in the period 1885-1985. It examines the pull from the country and the push from the capitals for decentralisation. Ballarat (Victoria) and Bathurst (N.S.W.) are used as case studies. Introductory chapters describe the historic pattern of population distribution in the two Colonies/States and discuss theories about the spatial distribution of population and industry. Chapters recounting and discussing the history and politics of decentralisation in Victoria and N.S.W. are organised in three periods: 1885-1940; 1940-1965; 1965-1985. A more decentralised distribution of population in Victoria and N.S.W. was almost always widely accepted as being in the public interest. Decentralisation rose and fell recurrently on the issue attention cycle. The pull from the country was fragmented and locally self-interested. The push from the capitals occurred only when life or its quality was perceived as threatened because of factors related to city size. Governments in both States introduced micro policies ostensibly to counter formidable centralising forces. In the 1970s there was an abortive attempt to implement a selective decentralisation policy in N.S.W. The thesis argues that decentralisation did not happen because: (1) there was not a consistent set of values and goals underlying the pull and push; (2) there was never a sustained, unified constituency for decentralisation, even in the country; (3) the power to influence, subvert or obstruct decentralisation policies was too widely diffused; (4) insufficient account was taken in decentralisation policymaking of the underlying economic, social and political dynamics.

How different is it really? – rural and urban primary students’ use of ICT in mathematics

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) offers the potential for changing mathematics education for both teachers and students. However, how ICT is used, and by whom, is critical to realizing this potential. This paper reports on an investigation of the use of ICT in the learning and teaching of mathematics in rural and urban primary schools in Victoria, Australia. Thirty-six teachers and almost 700 students were surveyed regarding their use of ICT for mathematics at home and at school, with a small number of selected teachers and students taking part in interviews. This paper focuses on students’ perceptions of ICT use. A comparison of rural and urban students’ responses shows little difference across most aspects of ICT use, and where there was a difference, the frequency of rural use almost always exceeded that in urban schools.

A virtuous circle: the positive evaluation phenomenon in arts audience research

Arts impact evaluation is the subject of widespread criticism, ranging from a detailed critique of methodology to a wholesale rejection of the very purpose of the endeavour. In particular, it is often identified that audience evaluations are almost always positive. Yet whatever the critique, arts impact evaluation is becoming more and not less prevalent as a condition of public and philanthropic funding. This article explores both the methodologicaland conceptual problems that contribute to the perceived positive characterof social impact research, in two parts: (1) an investigation of the critical literature on audience evaluation, particularly in relation to the argument that evaluation is inevitably positive and as such leads to a confusion between the goals of evaluation and arts advocacy; (2) a reflection on our practices as audience researchers in the performing arts and the practical factors that contribute to the dominance of the positive in audience evaluation.

A random coefficient approach to the predictability of stock returns in panels

© The Author, 2014. Most studies of the predictability of returns are based on time series data, and whenever panel data are used, the testing is almost always conducted in an unrestricted unit-by-unit fashion, which makes for a very heavy parametrization of the model. On the other hand, the few panel tests that exist are too restrictive in the sense that they are based on homogeneity assumptions that might not be true. As a response to this, the current study proposes new predictability tests in the context of a random coefficient panel data model, in which the null of no predictability corresponds to the joint restriction that the predictive slope has zero mean and variance. The tests are applied to a large panel of stocks listed at the New York Stock Exchange. The results suggest that while the predictive slopes tend to average to zero, in case of book-to-market and cash flow-to-price the variance of the slopes is positive, which we take as evidence of predictability.

Democracy, liberty and the prerogative: the displacement of inherent executive power by statute

This article analyses arguments that the prerogative should be readily displaced by statute, where a statute deals with a subject matter similar to a prerogative. It does so by examining the leading cases on displacement of the prerogative in the United Kingdom and the Australian states, and displacement of the Australian Commonwealth's inherent executive power. The cases do not adopt a single rule but the question of whether a statute will be taken to displace a prerogative is highly dependent of the facts and the provisions of the particular staute.This article defends the current approach to displacement, for three reasons. First, the courts do not allow governments to subvert or ignore statutes by using the prerogative. Secondly, the courts have almost always decided in favour of liberty and against the conferral of coercive powers on government. Thirdly, a single rule could not do justice to all the variables involved in displacement cases. Ordinary principles of statutory interpretation are sufficient to deal with questions of displacement.

A hybrid approach to clustering in big data

Clustering of big data has received much attention recently. In this paper, we present a new clusiVAT algorithm and compare it with four other popular data clustering algorithms. Three of the four comparison methods are based on the well known, classical batch k-means model. Specifically, we use k-means, single pass k-means, online k-means, and clustering using representatives (CURE) for numerical comparisons. clusiVAT is based on sampling the data, imaging the reordered distance matrix to estimate the number of clusters in the data visually, clustering the samples using a relative of single linkage (SL), and then noniteratively extending the labels to the rest of the data-set using the nearest prototype rule. Previous work has established that clusiVAT produces true SL clusters in compact-separated data. We have performed experiments to show that k-means and its modified algorithms suffer from initialization issues that cause many failures. On the other hand, clusiVAT needs no initialization, and almost always finds partitions that accurately match ground truth labels in labeled data. CURE also finds SL type partitions but is much slower than the other four algorithms. In our experiments, clusiVAT proves to be the fastest and most accurate of the five algorithms; e.g., it recovers 97% of the ground truth labels in the real world KDD-99 cup data (4 292 637 samples in 41 dimensions) in 76 s.

Black and white is always grey-the power of the police to conduct a strip search in Victoria

The performance of a strip search by a police officer is a serious interference with the liberty and dignity of an individual. However, it is considered by police to be an important part of their law enforcement armory and one that is increasingly necessary to utilise to assist in the investigation and prosecution of drug-related crimes. This article considers the troublesome issue of whether and in what circumstances the common law may extend to police the power to conduct a strip search. In addition, there is an examination of the statutes and regulations that purportedly give police in Victoria the power to strip search with particular attention given to ss 81 and 82 of the Drugs, Poisons and Controlled Substances Act 1981 (Vic).

Children's memory of recurring events: is the first event always the best remembered?

Three experiments were conducted to examine the effect of age (4-5 and 6-8 years) and retention interval on children's ability to remember separate occurrences of a repeated event that varied in terms of content (items, dialog, etc.) Experiment 1 explored children's ability to recall the first versus last occurrence of a series of six events, at either one week or six weeks delay. Experiments 2 and 3 explored children's ability to identify the position of items in terms of their order of presentation within the series across two retention intervals. Overall, the results revealed clear age differences in children's performance. In general, the 6- to 8-year+old children performed better on all tasks than the 4- to 5-year-old children. Further, the older children showed relatively good memory of the first and last items compared to the middle items, although the last items were more likely to be forgotten or misplaced in the sequencing tasks over time that the first items. For the younger children, the patterns of results were sometimes but not always consistent with that of the older children The relevance and generalisability of these findings to the legal setting are discussed as well as directions for future research.

A comparative study of some computer algebra packages which determine the lie point symmetries of differential equations

The study seeks to determine which of five computer algebra packages is best at finding the Lie point symmetries of systems of partial differential equations with minimal user intervention. The chosen packages are LIEPDE and DIMSYM for REDUCE, LIE and BIGLIE for MUMATH, DESOLV for MAPLE, and MATHLIE for MATHEMATICA. A series of systems of partial differential equations are used in the study. The paper concludes that while all of the computer packages are useful, DESOLV appears to be the most successful system at determining the complete set of Lie point symmetries of systems of partial differential equations.

Algebra skills and traps and diagnostic teaching for the future

Explores on some research about teaching and learning algebra and related classroom issues. Diagnostic instruments that may be used by senior secondary teachers in teaching algebra to senior classes; Strategies for remediating algebraic difficulties and misconceptions; Impact of technology on the algebra curriculum; Usefulness of copying algebraic expressions while using Computer Algebra Systems or mathematics processing software in a calculus class.

An almost universal scheme of national service in Australia in the 1950s

While the Australian Government partly justified the introduction of a universal National Service Training Scheme for eighteen-year old males in 1951 by highlighting the threat of imminent war and the consequent need for military preparedness, advocates also believed that national service encouraged the development of a sense of civil responsibility. Its confidence in the potential of national service to promote citizenship explains why the government was so strongly committed to the scheme's universality. Nonetheless, although the government went to great lengths to enforce compliance, Aborigines and those from other "non-white" backgrounds were actively discouraged from participation and women were only reluctantly admitted to the professional army. As would be expected in this period, they were never considered for national service. An examination of the rationale for national service and the associated discourse for inclusion and exclusion not only indicates the social assumptions shaping policy-making by government and bureaucratic elites in 1950s Australia, but also reveals their wider social aspirations.

The environment always matters

Superficially, the high human populations of prosperous, well-fed city-states such as Singapore and Hong Kong might appear to support the view that high concentrations of human dynamism and enterprise can alone transcend environmental constraints. Indeed, extrapolations from such densely populated regions to the whole world form the historical basis for the most optimistic estimates of how many people the Earth might support. In fact, these affluent, densely populated regions require goods and services that are produced by areas far larger than the residential area of the state. For the foreseeable future, the whole world cannot live as densely and as well as Singapore. For example, some of the fish eaten in Hong Kong is captured in Pacific Island fisheries. Beef from the Northern Territory is exported to Japan. More generally, the supply of environmentally dependent goods - including sinks for wastes - is always limited, as are inputs such as fertile soil, clean fresh water and a benign climate.

There are always two sides to a story: the use of social dramas as a mode of data analysis in information systems

With the continually evolving social nature of information systems research there is a need to identify different “modes of analysis” (Myers, 1997) to uncover our understanding of the complex, messy and often chaotic nature of human factors. One suggested mode of analysis is that of social dramas, a tool developed in the anthropological discipline by Victor Turner. The use of social dramas also utilises the work by Goffman (1959; 1997) and enables the researcher to investigate events from the front stage, reporting obvious issues in systems implementation, and from the back stage, identifying the hidden aspects of systems implementation and the underpinning discourses. A case study exploring the social dramas involved in systems selection and implementation has been provided to support the use of this methodological tool.

Logistics: Our buildings are always particular to places, access, materials, skills and technologies. How do these limits provide us with architectural opportunities?

Presents a discussion on the relations between architecture and spirituality during the 2005 conference of the Royal Architecture Institute of Australia. Reason behind difficulty encountered by architects to associate architecture and spirituality; Inspiration of Jae Cha of architectural firm Light for designing the Bolivian church; View of Kevin O'Brien of Merrima Design on Aboriginal buildings.