Analysis of trade-offs between biodiversity, carbon farming and agricultural development in northern Australia reveals the benefits of strategic planning

Australia's northern savannas are one of the few remaining large and mostly intact natural areas on Earth. However, their biodiversity and ecosystem values could be threatened if proposed agricultural development proceeds. Through land-use change scenarios, we explored trade-offs and synergies among biodiversity conservation, carbon farming and agriculture production in northern Australia. We found that if all suitable soils were converted to agriculture, habitat at unique recorded locations of three species would disappear and 40 species and vegetation communities could lose more than 50% of their current distributions. Yet, strategically considering agriculture and biodiversity outcomes leads to zoning options that could yield >56,000 km2 of agricultural development with a significantly lower impact on biodiversity values and carbon farming. Our analysis provides a template for policy-makers and planners to identify areas of conflict between competing land-uses, places to protect in advance of impacts, and planning options that balance agricultural and conservation needs.

Trade, openness and domestic conflict: an empirical investigation for latin America

This paper explores whether there is an empirical relationship between trade, openness and domestic conflict for Latin America based on the analytical framework of Garfinkel, Skaperdas and Syropoulos (2004). Using ordinal regressions and Markov switching models for seventeen countries, we identify the factors responsible for the initiation and sustenance of domestic conflict. Our overall results suggest that: (i) increased trade openness reduces domestic conflict intensities but (ii) over dependence on agricultural exports, along with poor socio-political performance, lead to sustenance of low intensity conflicts. We also analyze conflict duration using proportional hazard models and find that over-reliance on agricultural exports plays the main role in conflict sustenance after controlling for socio-political factors.

Plant variety protection and traditional agricultural knowledge in Southeast Asia

This article provides an overview of the emerging plant variety protection (PVP) systems in Southeast Asia. The case studies are from countries that form part of the regional Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), mainly Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. The focus will be on the intersection between intellectual property rights (IPRs) and popular demands for the protection of the traditional knowledge (TK) of local communities. Factors that fuelled the emergence and shaped the content of the PVP laws were the obligation to comply with art 27(3)(b) of the Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS Agreement), aspirations for the development of the biotechnology industry, avoidance of possible sanction under the US ‘Special 301’ procedure, Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), the role played by the International Union for the Protection of New Plant Varieties (UPOV), technical assistance from UPOV member countries, membership of international biodiversity treaties and demands from civil society organisations for protection of TK. The PVP laws that resulted present an uneasy amalgam of conventional property rights with some aspects of protection of TK. It is very likely that the local communities claiming TK rights will face legal hurdles, in as much as government agencies implementing the law will face administrative and technical complications.

Agriculture, trade openness and emissions: an empirical analysis and policy options

This article investigates the impact of sectoral production allocation, energy usage patterns and trade openness on pollutant emissions in a panel consisting of high-, medium- and low-income countries. Extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impact by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) and EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve) models are conducted to systematically identify these factors driving CO2 emissions in these countries during the period 1980–2010. To this end, the studyemploys three different heterogeneous, dynamic mean group-type linear panel modelsand one nonlinear panel data estimation procedure that allows for cross-sectionaldependence. While affluence, nonrenewable energy consumption and energy intensity variables are found to drive pollutant emissions in linear models, population is also found to be a significant driver in the nonlinear model. Both service sector and agricultural value-added levels play a significant role in reducing pollution levels, whereas industrialisation increases pollution levels. Although the linear model fails totrack any significant impact of trade openness, the nonlinear model finds trade liberalisation to significantly affect emission reduction levels. All of these results suggest that economic development, and especially industrialisation strategies and environmental policies, need to be coordinated to play a greater role in emission reduction due to trade liberalisation.

Sir John Crawford: agriculture and trade

Sir John Grenfell Crawford was one of the most significant of the seven dwarfs – the group of diminutive senior Commonwealth public servants active in the period from the 1940s to the 1960s. Agriculture and trade, the two issues with which Crawford engaged as a Commonwealth public servant, were closely connected. In 1948–49, immediately before Crawford was appointed secretary of the Department of Commerce and Agriculture, agricultural commodities still amounted to 85 per cent of Australia’s exports. Moreover, wool alone made up between 40 and 50 per cent of the total in the 1940s and 1950s

Managing reforestation to sequester carbon, increase biodiversity potential and minimize loss of agricultural land

Reforestation will have important consequences for the global challenges of mitigating climate change, arresting habitat decline and ensuring food security. We examined field-scale trade-offs between carbon sequestration of tree plantings and biodiversity potential and loss of agricultural land. Extensive surveys of reforestation across temperate and tropical Australia (N=1491 plantings) were used to determine how planting width and species mix affect carbon sequestration during early development (< 15 year). Carbon accumulation per area increased significantly with decreasing planting width and with increasing proportion of eucalypts (the predominant over-storey genus). Highest biodiversity potential was achieved through block plantings (width>40m) with about 25% of planted individuals being eucalypts. Carbon and biodiversity goals were balanced in mixed-species plantings by establishing narrow belts (width<20m) with a high proportion (>75%) of eucalypts, and in monocultures of mallee eucalypt plantings by using the widest belts (ca. 6-20m). Impacts on agriculture were minimized by planting narrow belts (ca. 4m) of mallee eucalypt monocultures, which had the highest carbon sequestering efficiency. A plausible scenario where only 5% of highly-cleared areas (<30% native vegetation cover remaining) of temperate Australia are reforested showed substantial mitigation potential. Total carbon sequestration after 15 years was up to 25Mt CO2-e year-1 when carbon and biodiversity goals were balanced and 13Mt CO2-e year-1 if block plantings of highest biodiversity potential were established. Even when reforestation was restricted to marginal agricultural land (<$2000ha-1 land value, 28% of the land under agriculture in Australia), total mitigation potential after 15 years was 17-26Mt CO2-e year-1 using narrow belts of mallee plantings. This work provides guidance on land use to governments and planners. We show that the multiple benefits of young tree plantings can be balanced by manipulating planting width and species choice at establishment. In highly-cleared areas, such plantings can sequester substantial biomass carbon while improving biodiversity and causing negligible loss of agricultural land.

Terms of trade shocks and monetary policy in India

Central banks in emerging market economies often grapple with understanding the monetary policy response to an inter-sectoral terms of trade shock. To address this, we develop a three sector closed economy NK-DSGE model calibrated to India. Our framework can be generalized to other emerging markets and developing economies. The model is characterized by a manufacturing sector and an agricultural sector. The agricultural sector is disaggregated into a grain and vegetable sector. The government procures grain from the grain market and stores it. We show that the procurement of grain leads to higher inflation, a change in the sectoral terms of trade, and a positive output gap because of a change in the sectoral allocation of labor. We compare the transmission of a single period positive procurement shock with a single period negative productivity shock and discuss the implications of such shocks for monetary policy setting. Our paper contributes to a growing literature on monetary policy in India and other emerging market economies.

A method for comprehensively assessing economic trade-offs of new irrigation developments

To meet the anticipated increase in global demand for food and fibre products, large areas of land around the world are being cleared and infrastructure constructed to enable irrigation, referred to herein as ‘greenfield irrigation’. One of the challenges in assessing the profitability of a greenfield irrigation development is understanding the impact of variability in climate and water availability and the trade-offs with scheme size, cost and the sensitivity of crop yield to water stress. For example, is it more profitable to irrigate a small area of land most years or a large area once every few years? And, is it more profitable to partially or fully water the crop? This paper presents a new method for efficiently linking a river system model and an agricultural production model to explore the financial trade-offs of different management choices, thereby enabling the optimal scheme area and most appropriate level of farmer risk to be identified. The method is demonstrated for a hypothetical but plausible greenfield irrigation development based around a large dam in the Flinders catchment, northern Australia. It was found that a dam and irrigation development paid for and operated by the same entity is not, under the conditions examined in this analysis, economically sustainable. The method could also be used to explore the impact of different management strategies on the agricultural production and profitability of existing irrigation schemes within a whole of river system context.