75 resultados para 340401 Economic Models and Forecasting

em Deakin Research Online - Australia


Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are critical to strategic initiatives in an economy; however, their contribution to foreign trade is not as significant. SMEs are one of the principal driving forces in economic development. One of the greatest challenges is the internationalization process for longevity rather than seeing the process as initial market entry. The internationalization process research has typically involved four key constructs: market selection, decision to enter, entry modes and factors affecting entry modes. Past research has focused on large manufacturing firms. The export of architectural, engineering and construction (AEC) firms has undergone growth, yet there is still significant opportunity for further growth. The majority of AEC firms are SMEs. Notwithstanding assistance provided through international trade missions, organized export firm support networks and information packages by a burgeoning number of government agencies, there are still perceived barriers to market entry and long-term economic sustainability for SMEs. There are a number of problems faced by SMEs acting in foreign trade. This investigation explores the successful initial internationalization process constructs and identifies unique project-oriented sector characteristics. The study identified similarities and differences between two firms that have been exporting to various localities, including Eastern Europe, Africa, Middle East, UK, Asia and South America, for more than two decades. The similarities and differences were identified within eight major constructs: purpose, firm type, market image and design philosophy, entry mode strategy, institutional arrangement, factors affecting mode of entry, market selection and firm strategy in relation to project selection. The primary reasons for internationalization were associated with the firms' motivations related to growth and financial viability. This article discusses the various internationalization processes and strategies intrinsic to each case study and establishes a detailed set of empirical observations from which to develop further a grounded theoretical model of reflexive capability for the internationalization process. This study contributes to the body of knowledge around the SME AEC design service firm's internationalization process, as a dynamic, evolving and continuously adaptable construct for project-based sectors.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Developing an efficient and accurate hydrologic forecasting model is crucial to managing water resources and flooding issues. In this study, response surface (RS) models including multiple linear regression (MLR), quadratic response surface (QRS), and nonlinear response surface (NRS) were applied to daily runoff (e.g., discharge and water level) prediction. Two catchments, one in southeast China and the other in western Canada, were used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed models. Their performances were compared with artificial neural network (ANN) models, trained with the learning algorithms of the gradient descent with adaptive learning rate (ANN-GDA) and Levenberg-Marquardt (ANN-LM). The performances of both RS and ANN in relation to the lags used in the input data, the length of the training samples, long-term (monthly and yearly) predictions, and peak value predictions were also analyzed. The results indicate that the QRS and NRS were able to obtain equally good performance in runoff prediction, as compared with ANN-GDA and ANN-LM, but require lower computational efforts. The RS models bring practical benefits in their application to hydrologic forecasting, particularly in the cases of short-term flood forecasting (e.g., hourly) due to fast training capability, and could be considered as an alternative to ANN

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Purpose:
To identify economic evaluation models and parameters that could be replicated or adapted to construct a generic model to assess cost-effectiveness of and prioritise a wide range of community-based oral disease prevention programmes in an Australian context.
Methods:
The literature search was conducted using MEDLINE, ERIC, PsycINFO, CINHAL (EBSCOhost), EMBASE (Ovid), CRD, DARE, NHSEED, HTA, all databases in the Cochrane library, Scopus and ScienceDirect databases from their inception to November 2012.
Results:
Thirty-three articles met the criteria for inclusion in this review (7 were Australian studies, 26 articles were international). Existing models focused primarily on dental caries. Periodontal disease, another common oral health problem, was lacking. Among caries prevention studies, there was an absence of clear evidence showing continuous benefits from primary through to permanent dentition and the long-term effects of oral health promotion.
Conclusion:
No generic model was identified from previous studies that could be immediately adopted or adapted for our purposes of simulating and prioritising a diverse range of oral health interventions for Australian children and adolescents. Nevertheless, data sources specified in the existing Australian-based models will be useful for developing a generic model for such purposes.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Production and conflict models have been used over the past 30 years to represent the effects of unproductive resource allocation in economics. Their major applications are in modelling the assignment of property rights, rentseeking and defense economics. This paper describes the process of designing an agent used in a production and conflict model. Using the capabilities of an agent-based approach to economic modelling, we have enriched a simple decision-maker of the kind used in classic general equilibrium economic models, to build an adaptive and interactive agent which uses its own attributes, its neighbors’ parameters and information from its environment to make resource allocation decisions. Our model presents emergent and adaptive behaviors than cannot be captured using classic production and conflict agents. Some possible extensions for future applications are also recommended.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

How best to assess trade and industrial policy in developing countries is a controversial question that unlocks a host of modelling complexities. Large computable general-equilibrium (CGE) models dominate many economic policy debates, but recent developments in the field have demonstrated that it is by no means clear that they give reliable results to questions of how trade reforms affect the poor. Over the last decade or so, a new approach to modelling complex systems has emerged using agent-based models (ABMs). This paper explores the question of whether ABMs are useful for economic policy-makers seeking to quantitatively model the effects of trade and industrial policies and whether constructive interfaces could be developed between CGE models and ABMs. The paper argues that in developing economic policy, ABMs can and should be used in conjunction with CGE models and that there is much to be gained from a greater understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different modelling approaches, and what domains are most appropriate for their use. It concludes with some reflections on the reasons for the success of CGE approaches and ways in which ABMs could be made more widely understood and used among economists.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In advanced capitalist societies, intellectual property laws protecting such subject matter as copyright and patents are justified by a combination of theories, which include the provision of economic incentives to foster creativity and innovation and the prevention of unfair competition. IP academics and policy makers have differing views about the appropriate balance between these objectives and public interest considerations such as health, education and the protection of the environment. These different views entered the policy debate in Asian developing countries in connection with an unprecedented introduction and expansion of IP laws over the last 25 years. This paper will use case studies of law reform from Asia, in particular Southeast Asia, to show that the policy considerations of governments in reforming their laws were often quite different from the standard rationale mentioned above. As much of the IP was, at least initially, held by foreigners and introduced to attract foreign investment, national development considerations were joined with the more commonly quoted objectives to promote the rights, creativity and innovation of individuals. Such national development objectives at times coincided and at other times collided with official explanations and received wisdom about the effects of stronger IP rights.

Especially in the early postcolonial period, copyright laws and other IP laws were frequently restricted or simply not implemented, if they conflicted with development policies in areas such as education or public health. Such policies were slowly changing in the wake of WTO-TRIPS and other international agreements. Nevertheless, the implementation and enforcement of the IP laws has been uneven. Specialised institutions such as courts and IP administering agencies compete with other branches of government and administration for limited funding and a rich repertoire of informal dispute settlement procedures has kept the number of court cases relatively low. In some countries, censorship laws have influenced freedom of expression and led to quite idiosyncratic interpretations of intellectual property laws. Governments often also retain a role in the assessment of licensing and technology transfer contracts. And while there are many programs to foster individual creativity, in most cases R & D activities are still largely taking place in government institutions and this has influenced the thinking about intellectual property rights and creativity in the context of employment.

The paper uses a few case studies to examine the implementation of IP laws in selected Asian developing countries to point to the quite different institutional setting for IP law reform in comparison to European or American models. It reaches some tentative conclusions as to the likely effects on creativity and innovation under these different circumstances.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

'This is essential reading for social marketing practitioners, researchers and students. the book describes a comprehensive range of behavior change theories of relevance to social marketing and is complemented with illustrative case ...

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

As a form of education, distance education is influenced by educationaltheories and ideologies. Hence, over time its various theoretical modelshave reflected varying emphases on students, both individually and ingroups, on content and process, and on administration and costs, and itsguiding philosophies have ranged from knowledge replication to knowledge creation, and from teacher direction to learner engagement. Its founding purpose was the provision of education to populations who were not able to access available residential education. The reasons were not only based on the individual situation, such as, geographic location, family commitments,work commitments, or cost factors, but also included state issues such as insufficient institutions or a lack of enrolment places, full-time funding, or sufficient staff. These factors have contributed in various ways to the growth of distance education, both historically as when distance education was a major focus in many European countries after WWII, and as a current imperative in many countries where the need and desire for education outstrips the supply through residential institutions, regardless of their fiscal capacities. Education is seen by both individuals and states as essential for the development of a better socio-economic environment, hence, distance education has become the cost-affordable means of provision for millions worldwide.Distance education, then, is framed within larger socio-economic andpolitical contexts. These are not only reflective of societal characteristics like those identified by Keegan (2000): immediacy, globalization, privatization, and industrialization, to which we added professional learning, but also reflective of current social, political, and economic circumstances, such as the sequence of global economic crises this century.Within these contexts then, the provision of distance education seldomarises from the desire of an institution alone; rather there are likely to becomplex national, local, and individual aspirations where distance education is seen as the best solution. The realization of this provision depends on the issues being addressed and the various influences on the particular configuration of design and provision. It may be publicly or privately funded; it may seek to emulate or extend educational provision in residential institutions; its focus may be on increasing access or openness or convenience.Models or designs for distance education, then, have generally arisen from consideration of these instances, in part to provide a framework for researchers and in part to provide a means to reflect on issues that the models themselves have tried to resolve and sometimes inadvertently create.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The association between socio-economic status (SES) and untreated hypertension varies according to a country's level of development and racial/ethnic group. We sought to confirm this variation in women from China and the United States (US) as well as to investigate the impact of SES on several mediating risk factors. We also investigate the extent to which SES explains racial/ethnic differences in untreated hypertension in the US. We used cross-sectional data from 1814 non-pregnant women in China (China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), 1997) and 3266 non-pregnant women in the United States (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), 1988–1994) respectively. A variety of statistical modelling techniques was used to predict untreated hypertension as a function of several mediating factors and to simulate the impact of changes in SES. The age-adjusted prevalence of untreated hypertension was significantly higher (p<0.01) for low-income White and Black women compared to Mexican American or Chinese women. Untreated hypertension was not significantly associated with income or education in Mexican Americans or women in China. Obesity and light physical activity had the largest mediating effect on the association between SES and untreated hypertension for all racial/ethnic groups. However, this effect was not as strong as the proxy effect of income and education. SES did not completely explain racial/ethnic differences in hypertension in the US. While SES was more strongly associated with hypertension in Blacks than Whites, Blacks were still 1.97 (95% CI 1.47–2.64) times more likely to have untreated hypertension than Whites after adjusting for SES differences. The association between SES and untreated hypertension varied by country and racial/ethnic group. An important explanation for this variation was the differential effect of SES on mediating risk factors. SES disparities between Whites and Blacks in the US partly explain differences in the prevalence of untreated hypertension between these racial/ethnic groups.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The impact of institutions on economic performance has attracted significant attention from researchers, as well as from policy reformers. A rapidly growing area in this literature is the impact of economic freedom on economic growth. The aim of this paper was to explore publication bias in this literature by means of traditional funnel plots, meta‐significance testing, as well as by bootstrapping these meta‐significance tests. When all the available estimates are combined and averaged, there seems to be evidence of a genuine and positive economic freedom – economic growth effect. However, it is also shown that the economic freedom – economic growth literature is tainted strongly with publication bias. The existence of publication bias makes it difficult to identify the magnitude of the genuine effect of economic freedom on economic growth. The paper explores the differences between aggregate and disaggregate measures of economic freedom and shows that selection effects are stronger when aggregate measures are used.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Background: There has been limited research on the role of financial strain on the adjustment of people with multiple sclerosis.

Aims: This study examined the financial costs of MS and the impact of financial strain on the quality of life and adjustment of people with MS and their families.

Methods: Interviews were conducted with 16 health professionals, 26 people with MS and 11 family members of people who have MS.

Results: Economic deprivation impacted on the subjective well being of many families living with MS. Concerns included adjustment to a lower income if the person with MS reduced or ceased work, and meeting the costs of home alterations, mobility equipment, and special transport. The additional cost of living with MS is a stress factor, especially for people dependent on disability support pensions.

Conclusions: It is anticipated that the findings from this study will raise the awareness of health professionals and politicians regarding the potential impact of financial stress on people with MS and their families.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper looks at the City of Melbourne's new office development CH2 as a case study of world class energy performance. In particular, the integrated design of conventionally independent systems has led to the potential to deliver significant savings to the Council and to deliver better environmental conditions to building occupants that in turn may contribute to satisfaction, well-being and Productivity. It is concluded that this project has the potential
to be an iconic example of effective implementation of ESD (environmental sustainable design) principles and therefore act as a demonstration project to others. Energy efficiency of more than 50% of current benchmarks for Melbourne is effected. Energy harvesting is defined as arising from squander, waste and nature, which is a new concept introduced in this paper to better describe the design decision process.