The 1990's property cycle in Hainan

The continuous debate between the radical and the conservative approaches on which one is more suitable for a successful economic transition seems to be in favour of the latter. With the recent upswing in the property market in Hainan, the review of the 1990s property cycle in Hainan is linked with economic transition in China. A case study approach is used to establish the importance of the 1990s Hainan property cycle to the formation process of the Chinese property market system. The analytical framework is an integration of the theories of property cycles and economic transition, using the conceptual model of typical commercial property markets modified according to the historical settings in Hainan. It is found that the 1990s Hainan property cycle is unique in that the economic transition has been the key driving force. The structural imbalance caused by the equally imbalanced reform process in different sectors in Hainan has been proved an unsuccessful practice. By and large, the 1990s cycle in Hainan lasted for about 10 years and was state-driven. It was considered an experiment conducted by the state in testing the radical approach of economic transition in the property and urban land sectors. It is suggested that current knowledge of emerging commercial property markets, especially their cyclical behaviour, is limited at both theoretical and empirical levels. Evidence from the past 15 years seems to suggest that the structural and investment imbalance in the economic transition was the main cause of the high volatility in the Hainan property market in the 1990s. The emergence of a commercial property market seems to require choosing the right places to start reform with great caution on investment structure and the fundame ntals of the real economy. Eventually, it is essential to adopt a systematic view to assess and to make decision in the process of emergence of property cycles, based on the basic demand and supply patterns in a city’s transitional economy.

The epidemiology of giardiasis in New Zealand, 1997-2006

Aims New Zealand has a higher incidence rate of giardiasis than other developed countries. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology of this disease in detail and to identify potential risk factors.

Methods We analysed anonymous giardiasis notification (1997–2006) and hospitalisation data (1990–2006). Cases were designated as urban or rural and assigned a deprivation level based on their home address. Association between disease rates and animal density was studied using a simple linear regression model, at the territorial authority (TA) level.

Results Over the 10-year period 1997–2006 the average annual rate of notified giardiasis was 44.1 cases per 100,000 population. The number of hospitalisations was equivalent to 1.7% of the notified cases. There were 2 reported fatalities. The annual incidence of notified cases declined over this period whereas hospitalisations remained fairly constant. Giardiasis showed little seasonality. The highest rates were among children 0–9 years old, those 30–39 years old, Europeans, and those living in low deprivation areas. Notification rates were slightly higher in rural areas. The correlation between giardiasis and farm animal density was not significant at the TA level.

Conclusions The public health importance of giardiasis to New Zealand mainly comes from its relatively high rates in this country. The distribution of cases is consistent with largely anthroponotic (human) reservoirs, with a relatively small contribution from zoonotic sources in rural environments and a modest contribution from overseas travel. Prevention efforts could include continuing efforts to improve hand washing, nappy handling, and other hygiene measures and travel health advice relating to enteric infections.