Expert systems modeling for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation in agricultural systems at regional level

Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. In this context, this paper describes a research methodology for assessing potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for, agriculture at regional level. The methodology was developed and applied in the analysis of climate change impacts on key horticultural commodities—pome fruits (apples and pears), stone fruits (peaches and nectarines) and wine grapes—in the Goulburn Broken catchment management region, State of Victoria, Australia. Core components of the methodology are mathematical models that enable to spatially represent the degree of biophysical land suitability for the growth of agricultural commodities in the region of interest given current and future climatic conditions. The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem situations that are being created by climate change.

Agent-Based Hybrid Intelligent Systems: An Agent-Based Framework for Complex Problem Solving

Pt. I. Fundamentals of hybrid intelligent systems and agents -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Basics of hybrid intelligent systems -- 3. Basics of agents and multi-agent systems -- Pt. II. Methodology and framework -- 4. Agent-oriented methodologies -- 5. Agent-based framework for hybrid intelligent systems --6. Matchmaking in middle agents -- Pt. III. Application systems -- 7. Agent-based hybrid intelligent system for financial investment
planning -- 8. Agent-based hybrid intelligent system for data mining -- Pt. IV. Concluding remarks -- 9. The less the more -- App. Sample source codes of the agent-based financial planning system

Appropriate choice of aggregation operators in fuzzy decision support systems

Fuzzy logic provides a mathematical formalism for a unified treatment of vagueness and imprecision that are ever present in decision support and expert systems in many areas. The choice of aggregation operators is crucial to the behavior of the system that is intended to mimic human decision making. This paper discusses how aggregation operators can be selected and adjusted to fit empirical data—a series of test cases. Both parametric and nonparametric regression are considered and compared. A practical application of the proposed methods to electronic implementation of clinical guidelines is presented

Investigating information systems analysts' possession of tacit organisational knowledge

Outsourcing of Information Technology (IT) services which are central to business strategy may be risky. Managers have made the outsourcing decision both to concentrate financially on the core competencies and to rid themselves of a troublesome and cost inefficient department. More recent research has, however, cast doubt on the promises of huge savings. In this paper, we consider the likelihood that outsourcing may lead to the loss of organisational knowledge - that organisations outsourcing their total Information Systems operations may also have lost irreplaceable tacit, cross-functional knowledge which subsisted within the minds of the professional systems analysts. The findings of our research revealed that expert systems analysts possess a unique organisational understanding and draw on this knowledge to operate efficiently in their environment. We present a model that will allow future researchers to build on our findings and examine whether outsourcing can lead to a loss of organisational memory.

Building agent-based hybrid intelligent systems

Many complex problems including financial investment planning, foreign exchange trading, knowledge discovery from large/multiple databases require hybrid intelligent systems that integrate many intelligent techniques including expert systems, fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms. However, hybrid intelligent systems are difficult to develop because they have a large number of parts or components that have many interactions. On the other hand, agents offer a new and often more appropriate route to the development of complex systems, especially in open and dynamic environments. In this paper, it is argued that agent technology is well snited for constructing hybrid intelligent systems (especially loosely coupled hybrid intelligent systems) through a successful case study. A great number of heterogeneous computing techniques/packages are easily integlated into the experimental system under a unifying agent framework, which implies that agent technology can greatly facilitate the construction of hybrid intelligent systems.

Co-ordination in multi-agent systems

A multi-agent system is a complex software system which is composed of many relative autonomous smaller softwares called agents. The research on multi-agent systems is concerned with the interaction and coordination among these agents to let them help each other to solve complicated problems, such as finance investment management. The principal contributions represented by these 50 selected papers are "cooperation under uncertainty in distributed expert systems (DESs)", "a tool and algorithms to build DESs", and "information gathering and decision making in multi-agent systems (MASs)".

An agent-based hybrid intelligent system for financial investment planning

Many complex problems including financial investment planning require hybrid intelligent systems that integrate many intelligent techniques including expert systems, fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms. However, hybrid intelligent systems are difficult to develop due to complicated interactions and technique incompatibilities. This paper describes a hybrid intelligent system for financial investment planning that was built from agent points of view. This system currently consists of 13 different agents. The experimental results show that all agents in the system can work cooperatively to provide reasonable investment advice. The system is very flexible and robust. The success of the system indicates that agent technologies can significantly facilitate the construction of hybrid intelligent systems.

Information sharing between heterogeneous uncertain reasoning models in a multi-agent environment : a case study

The issue of information sharing and exchanging is one of the most important issues in the areas of artificial intelligence and knowledge-based systems (KBSs), or even in the broader areas of computer and information technology. This paper deals with a special case of this issue by carrying out a case study of information sharing between two well-known heterogeneous uncertain reasoning models: the certainty factor model and the subjective Bayesian method. More precisely, this paper discovers a family of exactly isomorphic transformations between these two uncertain reasoning models. More interestingly, among isomorphic transformation functions in this family, different ones can handle different degrees to which a domain expert is positive or negative when performing such a transformation task. The direct motivation of the investigation lies in a realistic consideration. In the past, expert systems exploited mainly these two models to deal with uncertainties. In other words, a lot of stand-alone expert systems which use the two uncertain reasoning models are available. If there is a reasonable transformation mechanism between these two uncertain reasoning models, we can use the Internet to couple these pre-existing expert systems together so that the integrated systems are able to exchange and share useful information with each other, thereby improving their performance through cooperation. Also, the issue of transformation between heterogeneous uncertain reasoning models is significant in the research area of multi-agent systems because different agents in a multi-agent system could employ different expert systems with heterogeneous uncertain reasonings for their action selections and the information sharing and exchanging is unavoidable between different agents. In addition, we make clear the relationship between the certainty factor model and probability theory.

Agent-based hybrid framework for decision making on complex problems

Electronic commerce and the Internet have created demand for automated systems that can make complex decisions utilizing information from multiple sources. Because the information is uncertain, dynamic, distributed, and heterogeneous in nature, these systems require a great diversity of intelligent techniques including expert systems, fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms. However, in complex decision making, many different components or sub-tasks are involved, each of which requires different types of processing. Thus multiple such techniques are required resulting in systems called hybrid intelligent systems. That is, hybrid solutions are crucial for complex problem solving and decision making. There is a growing demand for these systems in many areas including financial investment planning, engineering design, medical diagnosis, and cognitive simulation. However, the design and development of these systems is difficult because they have a large number of parts or components that have many interactions. From a multi-agent perspective, agents in multi-agent systems (MAS) are autonomous and can engage in flexible, high-level interactions. MASs are good at complex, dynamic interactions. Thus a multi-agent perspective is suitable for modeling, design, and construction of hybrid intelligent systems. The aim of this thesis is to develop an agent-based framework for constructing hybrid intelligent systems which are mainly used for complex problem solving and decision making. Existing software development techniques (typically, object-oriented) are inadequate for modeling agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. There is a fundamental mismatch between the concepts used by object-oriented developers and the agent-oriented view. Although there are some agent-oriented methodologies such as the Gaia methodology, there is still no specifically tailored methodology available for analyzing and designing agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. To this end, a methodology is proposed, which is specifically tailored to the analysis and design of agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. The methodology consists of six models - role model, interaction model, agent model, skill model, knowledge model, and organizational model. This methodology differs from other agent-oriented methodologies in its skill and knowledge models. As good decisions and problem solutions are mainly based on adequate information, rich knowledge, and appropriate skills to use knowledge and information, these two models are of paramount importance in modeling complex problem solving and decision making. Follow the methodology, an agent-based framework for hybrid intelligent system construction used in complex problem solving and decision making was developed. The framework has several crucial characteristics that differentiate this research from others. Four important issues relating to the framework are also investigated. These cover the building of an ontology for financial investment, matchmaking in middle agents, reasoning in problem solving and decision making, and decision aggregation in MASs. The thesis demonstrates how to build a domain-specific ontology and how to access it in a MAS by building a financial ontology. It is argued that the practical performance of service provider agents has a significant impact on the matchmaking outcomes of middle agents. It is proposed to consider service provider agents' track records in matchmaking. A way to provide initial values for the track records of service provider agents is also suggested. The concept of ‘reasoning with multimedia information’ is introduced, and reasoning with still image information using symbolic projection theory is proposed. How to choose suitable aggregation operations is demonstrated through financial investment application and three approaches are proposed - the stationary agent approach, the token-passing approach, and the mobile agent approach to implementing decision aggregation in MASs. Based on the framework, a prototype was built and applied to financial investment planning. This prototype consists of one serving agent, one interface agent, one decision aggregation agent, one planning agent, four decision making agents, and five service provider agents. Experiments were conducted on the prototype. The experimental results show the framework is flexible, robust, and fully workable. All agents derived from the methodology exhibit their behaviors correctly as specified.

Intelligent animal fibre identification and classification

To develop an objective and repeatable method of identification and classification of animal fibres, two different integrated systems were developed to mimic the human brain's ability to undertake feature extraction and discrimination of animal fibres. Both integrated systems are basically composed of an image processing system and an artificial neural network system.

Mixed transfer function neural networks for generalization and knowledge extraction

This thesis develops a novel framework of nonlinear modelling to adaptively fit the complexity of the model to the problem domain resulting in a better modelling capability and a straightforward knowledge acquisition. The developed framework also permits increased comprehensibility and user acceptability of modelling results.

Dynamic knowledge modelling

The integration of knowledge from various modelling paradigms has posed great difficulty to knowledge engineers due to the inability to re-use knowledge from diverse domains. This research has identified novel processes, which collectively provide the basis for dynamic knowledge modelling, as the key step in knowledge integration. These processes required prototypical knowledge structures derived from abstractions of reasoning processes and have been shown to provide a knowledge modelling solution to complex knowledge management tasks.