Whose risk? 'Managing' risk in school leadership

This article discusses the rise in prominence of 'risk' in schools and the processes and procedures it has triggered in its wake. The discussion commences with formal definitions of 'risk' and how risk is mandated and 'managed' in schools. Alternative views are canvassed and hegemonic emphases in risk policy and practice are critiqued. Taking a socio-cultural approach, the article explores risk from the perspective of school leaders, raising topics elided in risk discourses. The article takes the view that current conceptions of 'risk' have created greater complexity and further risks for the school leaders who 'manage' it. The article investigates school leaders 'and risk' - how risks emerge in the course of everyday school leadership work; school leaders 'at risk' - interrogating the personal and professional risk borne by school leaders through risk policies; and leaders 'as risk' - broaching the rarely raised topic of 'bad' leadership in schools, with its deleterious effects on individuals and whole school communities. These aspects of risk are not found in current literature on risk in educational leadership. The article then goes further to raise the 'undiscussable' topic of risky central leadership practices which render school leaders at even more risk. The article concludes with discussion of risks that school leaders cannot afford not to take in dealing with risk, particularly with regard to collective action to address mandated policy procedures which are detrimental to the foundational issues of teaching, learning, professional agency and community perceptions.

Giving a state a bad name? Kyrgyzstan and the risk of state failure

The article discusses the possible state failure of Kyrgyzstan and the implications of the label of a failed sate. A brief history of the events that have led to failed state status include the Tulip Revolution in 2005, political protests, presidential election protests, and ethnic violence. The response of the U.S., the European Union, and Russia to the events and the national interests of labeling the state as failed are discussed. It is suggested that instead of establishing security other countries have labeled Kyrgyzstan as a failed state which has led to a lack of political legitimacy, an expansion of neoliberalism, and has dangerous implications for the success of the country.

Can improving working memory prevent academic difficulties? a school based randomised controlled trial

Background: Low academic achievement is common and is associated with adverse outcomes such as grade repetition, behavioural disorders and unemployment. The ability to accurately identify these children and intervene before they experience academic failure would be a major advance over the current ‘wait to fail’ model. Recent research suggests that a possible modifiable factor for low academic achievement is working memory, the ability to temporarily store and manipulate information in a ‘mental workspace’. Children with working memory difficulties are at high risk of academic failure. It has recently been demonstrated that working memory can be improved with adaptive training tasks that encourage improvements in working memory capacity. Our trial will determine whether the intervention is efficacious as a selective prevention strategy for young children at risk of academic difficulties and is cost-effective.

Methods/Design: This randomised controlled trial aims to recruit 440 children with low working memory after a school-based screening of 2880 children in Grade one. We will approach caregivers of all children from 48 participating primary schools in metropolitan Melbourne for consent. Children with low working memory will be randomised to usual care or the intervention. The intervention will consist of 25 computerised working memory training sessions, which take approximately 35 minutes each to complete. Follow-up of children will be conducted at 6, 12 and 24 months post-randomisation through child face-to-face assessment, parent and teacher surveys and data from government authorities. The primary outcome is academic achievement at 12 and 24 months, and other outcomes include child behaviour, attention, health-related quality of life, working memory, and health and educational service
utilisation.

Discussion: A successful start to formal learning in school sets the stage for future academic, psychological and economic well-being. If this preventive intervention can be shown to be efficacious, then we will have the potential to prevent academic underachievement in large numbers of at-risk children, to offer a ready-to-use intervention to the Australian school system and to build international research partnerships along the health education interface, in order to carry our further studies of effectiveness and generalisability.

Student and school factors associated with school suspension : A multilevel analysis of students in Victoria, Australia and Washington State, United States.

One of the common issues schools face is how best to handle challenging student behaviors such as violent behavior, antisocial behavior, bullying, school rule violations, and interrupting other students' learning. School suspension may be used to remove students engaging in challenging behaviors from the school for a period of time. However, the act of suspending students from school may worsen rather than improve their behavior. Research shows that suspensions predict a range of student outcomes, including crime, delinquency, and drug use. It is therefore crucial to understand the factors associated with the use of school suspension, particularly in sites with different policy approaches to problem behaviors. This paper draws on data from state-representative samples of 3,129 Grade 7 and 9 students in Washington State, United States and Victoria, Australia sampled in 2002. Multilevel modeling examined student and school level factors associated with student-reported school suspension. Results showed that both student (being male, previous student antisocial and violent behavior, rebelliousness, academic failure) and school (socioeconomic status of the school, aggregate measures of low school commitment) level factors were associated with school suspension and that the factors related to suspension were similar in the two states. The implications of the findings for effective school behavior management policy are that, rather than focusing only on the student, both student and school level factors need to be addressed to reduce the rates of school suspension.

A longitudinal study of the association of adolescent polydrug use, alcohol use and high school non-completion

AIMS: Failure to complete high school predicts substantial economic and social disadvantage in adult life. The aim of this study was to determine the longitudinal association of mid-adolescent polydrug use and high school non-completion, relative to other drug use profiles. DESIGN: A longitudinal analysis of the relationship between polydrug use in three cohorts at grade 9 (age 14-15 years) and school non-completion (reported post-high school). SETTING: A State-representative sample of students across Victoria, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2287 secondary school students from 152 high schools. The retention rate was 85%. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was non-completion of grade 12 (assessed at age 19-23 years). At grade 9, predictors included 30-day use of eight drugs, school commitment, academic failure and peer drug use. Other controls included socio-economic status, family relationship quality, depressive symptoms, gender, age and cohort. FINDINGS: Three distinct classes of drug use were identified-no drug use (31.7%), mainly alcohol use (61.8%) and polydrug use (6.5%). Polydrug users were characterized by high rates of alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use. In the full model, mainly alcohol users and polydrug users were less likely to complete school than non-drug users [odds ratio (OR) = 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.17-2.03) and OR = 2.51, 95% CI = 1.45-4.33), respectively, P < 0.001]. These effects were independent of school commitment, academic failure, peer drug use and other controls. CONCLUSIONS: Mid-adolescent polydrug use in Australia predicts subsequent school non-completion after accounting for a range of potential confounding factors. Adolescents who mainly consume alcohol are also at elevated risk of school non-completion.

Insurance services in multi-agent systems

In a multi-agent environment, there is often the need for an agent to cooperate with others so as to ensure that a given task is achieved timely and cost-effectively. Present agent systems currently maximizes this through mechanisms such as trust and risk assessments. In this paper, we extend this mechanism by introducing the concept of insurance, in which the insurance agents act as a bridge between agents who require resources from others. Unlike traditional systems, agents purchase insurance so as to guarantee to have the requested resources during the task execution time and thus minimize the risk in task failure. The novelty of this proposal is that it ensures agents continuously to exchange resources and to seek maximum expected utility in a dynamic environment at the same time. Our experimental results confirm the feasibility of our approach.

The process of change in offender rehabilitation programmes

Whilst the overall effectiveness of offender rehabilitation programmes in reducing recidivism is now well established, there has been less discussion of the reasons why rehabilitation programmes may be unsuccessful for some offenders. In this paper we suggest that models of change developed in counselling and psychotherapy may have utility in explaining how offender rehabilitation programmes bring about change, and argue that the dominance of cognitive-behavioural treatments in the rehabilitation field means that those offenders who have particularly low levels of problem awareness may be at increased risk of treatment failure. Understanding more about the mechanisms by which programmes help offenders to desist from offending is likely to lead to the development of more responsive and, ultimately, more effective programmes. Some suggestions for those involved in the delivery of offender rehabilitation programmes include: being mindful of the sequence of components of programmes, the development of preparation (or readiness) programmes and offering a broad suite of programmes to cater for different stages of problem awareness and assimilation among offenders.

Problem assimilation and offender rehabilitation

Whilst the overall effectiveness of offender rehabilitation programs in reducing recidivism is now well established, there has been less discussion of the reasons why rehabilitation programs may be unsuccessful for some offenders. In this paper we suggest that the Assimilation model of change (Stiles et al., 1991) may have utility in explaining how offender rehabilitation programs bring about change, and argue that those offenders who have particularly low levels of problem awareness may be at increased risk of treatment failure. Methods of measuring problem awareness and treatment readiness are discussed along with possible methods of intervention, including the Pennebaker method.

Predicting steep escalations in alcohol use over the teenage years: age-related variations in key social influences

Aims
This study examined how family, peer and school factors are related to different trajectories of adolescent alcohol use at key developmental periods.

Design
Latent class growth analysis was used to identify trajectories based on five waves of data (from grade 6, age 12 to grade 11, age 17), with predictors at grades 5, 7 and 9 included as covariates.

Setting
Adolescents completed surveys during school hours.

Participants
A total of 808 students in Victoria, Australia.

Measurements
Alcohol use trajectories were based on self-reports of 30-day frequency of alcohol use. Predictors included sibling alcohol use, attachment to parents, parental supervision, parental attitudes favourable to adolescent alcohol use, peer alcohol use and school commitment.

Findings
A total of 8.2% showed steep escalation in alcohol use. Relative to non-users, steep escalators were predicted by age-specific effects for low school commitment at grade 7 (P = 0.031) and parental attitudes at grade 5 (P = 0.003), and age-generalized effects for sibling alcohol use (Ps = 0.001, 0.012, 0.033 at grades 5, 7 and 9, respectively) and peer alcohol use (Ps = 0.041, < 0.001, < 0.001 at grades 5, 7 and 9, respectively). Poor parental supervision was associated with steep escalators at grade 9 (P < 0.001) but not the other grades. Attachment to parents was unrelated to alcohol trajectories.

Conclusions
Parental disapproval of alcohol use before transition to high school, low school commitment at transition to high school, and sibling and peer alcohol use during adolescence are associated with a higher risk of steep escalations in alcohol use.

Prevalence of hyponatremia in acute medical admissions in tropical Asia Pacific Australia

To determine prevalence of hyponatremia in acute medical admissions in Northern Australasia.

Objectively measured sedentary behaviour and health and development in children and adolescents: systematic review and meta-analysis

Sedentary behaviour has emerged as a unique determinant of health in adults. Studies in children and adolescents have been less consistent. We reviewed the evidence to determine if the total volume and patterns (i.e. breaks and bouts) of objectively measured sedentary behaviour were associated with adverse health outcomes in young people, independent of moderate-intensity to vigorous-intensity physical activity. Four electronic databases (EMBASE MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, PubMed and Scopus) were searched (up to 12 November 2015) to retrieve studies among 2- to 18-year-olds, which used cross-sectional, longitudinal or experimental designs, and examined associations with health outcomes (adiposity, cardio-metabolic, fitness, respiratory, bone/musculoskeletal, psychosocial, cognition/academic achievement, gross motor development and other outcomes). Based on 88 eligible observational studies, level of evidence grading and quantitative meta-analyses indicated that there is limited available evidence that the total volume or patterns of sedentary behaviour are associated with health in children and adolescents when accounting for moderate-intensity to vigorous-intensity physical activity or focusing on studies with low risk of bias. Quality evidence from studies with robust designs and methods, objective measures of sitting, examining associations for various health outcomes, is needed to better understand if the overall volume or patterns of sedentary behaviour are independent determinants of health in children and adolescents.

Developmental language disorders and adolescent risk: a public-health advocacy role for speech pathologists?

Within the multi-disciplinary team concerned with child and adolescent development, speech pathologists are uniquely positioned to understand the nature and overall developmental significance of language acquisition in childhood and adolescence. Other disciplines contribute valuable insights about psychosocial development during the childhood and adolescent years. The field of developmental psychology, for example provides a large and convincing body of evidence about the role of academic success as a protective factor against a range of psychosocial harms, in particular substance misuse, truancy, early school leaving, and juvenile offending. In this paper, we argue that juvenile offending embodies the notion of "adolescent risk", but in Australia in particular, has been under-investigated with respect to possible associations with developmental language disorders and subsequent academic failure. We present findings pertaining to a sample of 30 male juvenile offenders completing community based orders. Performance on a range of oral language processing and production skills was poorer than that of a demographically similar comparison group. Our results confirm the need to conceptualize language within a broader risk and protective framework. We therefore emphasize the public health importance of early language competence, by virtue of the psychosocial protection it confers on young people with respect to the development of prosocial skills, transition to literacy and overall academic achievement. We argue that speech pathologists are best positioned to advocate at a policy level about the broader public health importance of oral language competence.

Individual, family, school, and community risk and protective factors for depressive symptoms in adolescents : a comparison of risk profiles for substance use and depressive symptoms

This study examines the relationship between adolescent depressive symptoms and risk and protective factors identified for substance use. A questionnaire, developed to measure these factors in a young persons community, family, school, peer group, and individual characteristics for substance use, was used to assess associations with self-reported depressive symptoms. Data were provided by a representative sample of 8984 secondary school students in Victoria, Australia. The prevalence of depressive symptoms was 10.5% (95% CI 9.2,12.0) for males and 21.7% (95% CI 20.3,23.7) for females. Depressive symptoms were associated with factors in all domains, with the strongest associations in the family domain. Strong relationships were found between the number of elevated risk and protective factors and depressive symptoms, maintained after adjusting for substance use. Patterns of associations were similar for users and nonsubstance users. The findings indicate that prevention programs targeting factors for substance use have the potential to impact on depression.

Family risk factors for cannabis use: a population-based survey of Australian secondary school students

The objective of this study was to investigate relationships between adolescent cannabis use and indices of parent - child attachment, family functioning and parent attitudes to drugs and delinquency. A total of 2848 year 9 and 2363 year 11 students participated in the Victorian Adolescent Health and Well-Being Survey (1999). The study was a school-based random sample of 535 metropolitan and rural, government and non-government secondary schools throughout Victoria, Australia. Cannabis use was defined as 'any' and 'weekly' use in the last 30 days. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent associations between cannabis use and parent - child attachment, family functioning and parent attitudes to drugs and delinquency. Cannabis use in year 9 was associated with permissive parent attitudes to drugs and delinquency (any use: adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 8.1; weekly use: adjusted OR = 7.6), and was particularly sensitive to small changes in the quality of the parent - child relationship with risk increasing threefold for those describing their attachment as 'good' compared with 'very good' (any use: adjusted OR = 2.8, weekly use adjusted OR = 2.9). A similar, but more moderate pattern association was evident in year 11. After adjusting for other family and background factors, poor family functioning showed minimal association with level of cannabis use at both year levels. Results suggest that intervention efforts might sensibly target strengthening parent - children relationships and promoting less permissive parent attitudes to drug use.

The effect of school suspensions and arrests on subsequent adolescent antisocial behavior in Australia and the United States

Purpose: To examine the effect of school suspensions and arrests (i.e., being taken into police custody) on subsequent adolescent antisocial behavior such as violence and crime, after controlling for established risk and protective factors in Victoria, Australia and Washington State, United States (U.S.). Methods: This article reports on analyses of two points of data collected 1 year apart within a cross-national longitudinal study of the development of antisocial behavior, substance use, and related behaviors in approximately 4000 students aged 12 to 16 years in Victoria, Australia and Washington State, U.S. Students completed a modified version of the Communities That Care self-report survey of behavior, as well as risk and protective factors across five domains (individual, family, peer, school, and community). Multivariate logistic regression analyses investigate the effect of school suspensions and arrests on subsequent antisocial behavior, holding constant individual, family, peer, school, and community level influences such as being female, student belief in the moral order, emotional control, and attachment to mother. Results: At the first assessment, school suspensions and arrests were more commonly reported in Washington, and school suspensions significantly increased the likelihood of antisocial behavior 12 months later, after holding constant established risk and protective factors (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1–2.1, _p < .05). Predictors of antisocial behavior spanned risk and protective factors across five individual and ecological areas of risk. Risk factors in this study were pre-existing antisocial behavior (OR 3.6, CI 2.7–4.7, _p < .001), association with antisocial peers (OR 1.8, CI 1.4–2.4, _p < .001), academic failure (OR 1.3, CI 1.1–1.5, _p < .01), and perceived availability of drugs in the community (OR 1.3, CI 1.1–1.5, _p < .001). Protective factors included being female (OR 0.7, CI 0.5–0.9, _p < .01), student belief in the moral order (OR 0.8, CI 0.6–1.0, p < .05), student emotional control (OR 0.7, CI 0.6–0.8, _p < .001), and attachment to mother (OR 0.8, CI 0.7–1.0, _p < .05). Conclusions:  School suspensions may increase the likelihood of future antisocial behavior. Further research is required to both replicate this finding and establish the mechanisms by which school suspensions exert their effects.