Insights into the biodiversity and social benchmarking components of the Northern Australian fire management and carbon abatement programmes

Much of northern Australia’s tropical savannas are subject to annual intense and extensive late dry season wildfires, much of this occurring on Aboriginal land. Based on the successful West Arnhem Land Fire Abatement (WALFA) model, which has resulted in significantly reduced greenhouse gas emissions, fire abatement programmes are planned for other significant regions of northern Australia. This study offers an introduction to the ideas behind a proposed environmental and social benchmarking project that aims to evaluate the potential benefits of expanding the fire abatement program in northern Australia, under the leadership of NAILSMA and its partners. Gaining a better understanding of the biodiversity, social and cultural outcomes of these fire abatement activities is an important component of demonstrating multiple benefits of these programmes. We emphasize the role of both biodiversity and cultural mapping to establish benchmarks and baseline states, with the involvement of Indigenous communities being a key element to optimize social and biodiversity benefits. Consultation with Traditional Owners and ranger groups to establish an agreed set of targets, indicators and sampling protocols and methodologies are critical component of this process. Examples of preliminary work to date are provided.

Fire management on private conservation lands : knowledge, perceptions and actions of landholders in eastern Australia

Fire is an important natural disturbance process within the Australian landscape, but the complex and hazardous nature of fire creates a conservation management dilemma. For landholders of private conservation lands, management for conservation of biodiversity and risk reduction is complicated. Private conservation landholders in eastern Australia directed far less effort towards fire management than other conservation management actions, despite clearly acknowledging the risk and associated responsibilities of fire management on their lands. Nonetheless, landholders did undertake actions to reduce fuel hazards and prepare for wildfire events on their land. Despite the established role and benefits of fire to many ecosystems in the region, landholder understanding of the ecological role of fire was generally poor. Few landholders were aware of ecologically appropriate fire regimes for the vegetation types on their property, and few undertook fire management actions to achieve ecological outcomes. Site-specific obstacles, lack of fire management knowledge and experience, and legal and containment concerns contributed to the low level of fire management observed. There is a need for property-specific fire management planning across all private conservation lands, to further integrate ecological fire requirements into biodiversity management, and prioritise actions that aim to improve conservation outcomes while safeguarding life and property.

Managing fire mosaics for small mammal conservation : a landscape perspective

1.Fire is a major driver of ecosystem structure and function worldwide. It is also widely used as a management tool to achieve conservation goals. A common objective is the maintenance of 'fire mosaics' comprising spatially heterogeneous patches of differing fire history. However, it is unclear what properties of fire mosaics most enhance conservation efforts. Here we focus on the spatial and temporal properties of fire-prone landscapes that influence the distribution of small mammals.

2.We surveyed small mammals in 28 landscapes (each 12·6km²) representing a range of fire histories in the Murray Mallee region (104 000km²) of semi-arid Australia. Generalised linear mixed models were used to examine the influence of five landscape properties on the capture rate of individual species and the species richness of native small mammals. We investigated the influence of the proportional extent of fire age-classes, the diversity of fire age-classes, the extent of the dominant vegetation type, rainfall history and biogeographic context.

3.Three of four study species were associated with the spatial extent of fire age-classes. Older vegetation was found to provide important habitat for native small mammals. Overall, however, rainfall history and biogeographic context were dominant influences: for example, the species richness of native mammals was positively associated with above-average rainfall. There was little evidence that the diversity of fire age-classes influenced either the capture rate of individual species or species richness.

4.Synthesis and applications. In fire-prone environments, habitat availability can change markedly over short time-scales. Sufficient habitat at a suitable seral stage within the landscape is a key requirement for species conservation. In mallee ecosystems, the retention of older vegetation is recommended to create more desirable fire mosaics for native small mammals. In addition to such spatial properties of mosaics that are amenable to manipulation, an understanding of how ecological processes affect the biota (such as variation in rainfall-driven productivity) is also essential for informed conservation management.

Interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems for load forecasting : a comparative study

Accurate short term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision-making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. This paper proposes the application of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems (IT2 FLSs) for the problem of STLF. IT2 FLSs, with additional degrees of freedom, are an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and improving the prediction accuracy. Experiments conducted with real datasets show that IT2 FLS models precisely approximate future load demands with an acceptable accuracy. Furthermore, they demonstrate an encouraging degree of accuracy superior to feedforward neural networks and traditional type-1 Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) FLSs.

Aggregation for Atanassov's intuitionistic and interval valued fuzzy sets: the median operator

Atanassov's intuitionistic fuzzy sets (AIFS) and interval valued fuzzy sets (IVFS) are two generalizations of a fuzzy set, which are equivalent mathematically although different semantically. We analyze the median aggregation operator for AIFS and IVFS. Different mathematical theories have lead to different definitions of the median operator. We look at the median from various perspectives: as an instance of the intuitionistic ordered weighted averaging operator, as a Fermat point in a plane, as a minimizer of input disagreement, and as an operation on distributive lattices. We underline several connections between these approaches and summarize essential properties of the median in different representations.

Effects of time since fire on birds : how informative are generalized fire response curves for conservation management?

Fire is both a widespread natural disturbance that affects the distribution of species and a tool that can be used to manage habitats for species. Knowledge of temporal changes in the occurrence of species after fire is essential for conservation management in fire-prone environments. Two key issues are: whether postfire responses of species are idiosyncratic or if multiple species show a limited number of similar responses; and whether such responses to time since fire can predict the occurrence of species across broad spatial scales. We examined the response of bird species to time since fire in semiarid shrubland in southeastern Australia using data from surveys at 499 sites representing a 100-year chronosequence. We used nonlinear regression to model the probability of occurrence of 30 species with time since fire in two vegetation types, and compared species' responses with generalized response shapes from the literature. The occurrence of 16 species was significantly influenced by time since fire: they displayed six main responses consistent with generalized response shapes. Of these 16 species, 15 occurred more frequently in mid- or later-successional vegetation (>20 years since fire), and only one species occurred more often in early succession (<5 years since fire). The models had reasonable predictive ability for eight species, some predictive ability for seven species, and were little better than random for one species. Bird species displayed a limited range of responses to time since fire; thus a small set of fire ages should allow the provision of habitat for most species. Postfire successional changes extend for decades and management of the age class distribution of vegetation will need to reflect this timescale. Response curves revealed important seral stages for species and highlighted the importance of mid- to late-successional vegetation (>20 years). Although time since fire clearly influences the distribution of numerous bird species, predictive models of the spatial distribution of species in fire-prone landscapes need to incorporate other factors in addition to time since fire.

The influence of unburnt patches and distance from refuges on post-fire bird communities

Predicting the response of faunal communities to fire presents a challenge for land managers worldwide because the post-fire responses of species may vary between locations and fire events. Post-fire recovery can occur via nucleated recovery from in situ surviving populations or by colonization from ex situ populations. Fine-scale spatial patterns in the patchiness of fires and the proximity of burnt sites to source populations may contribute to both the variability in post-fire responses and the processes by which populations recover. We examined the avifauna at recently burnt sites within extensive semi-arid shrublands of south-eastern Australia, including 72 sites < 5 years since fire and 26 sites 10 years since fire. Study sites represented a gradient of increasing distance from ‘unburnt’ vegetation (i.e. > 27 years since fire) and varied in the presence or absence of small (25–900 m2) unburnt patches of vegetation. For sites < 5 years since fire, species richness was higher at sites closer to unburnt vegetation and at sites containing unburnt patches. These patterns were no longer evident at sites of 10 years since fire. The probability of occurrence of three of seven bird species modelled decreased with increasing distance to unburnt vegetation, but this pattern was evident only at sites burnt uniformly. One species was found almost exclusively at patchily burnt sites. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that proximity to unburnt vegetation enhances post-fire occupancy, and that colonization from ex situ populations is an important process for post-fire recovery of avifauna. Additionally, small unburnt patches enhance the rapid recovery of assemblages post-fire. These patterns are important for understanding the dynamics of post-fire population recovery. We recommend that management of fire for ecological purposes should explicitly consider the role that the spatial attributes of fires play in determining the post-fire community.

Examination of the effect of mental reinstatement of context acress developmental level, retention interval and type of mnemonic instruction

The effect of mental reinstatement of context was examined using a 4*5*2 factorial design incorporating four age groups (6-year-olds, 8-year-olds, 11-year-olds and adults), two retention intervals (1 day and 2 weeks after the stimulus event) and five interview conditions. The interview conditions included; free recall, mental reinstatement-environment (where the setting was reinstated but no event-related detail was provided in the mnemonic instruction), mental reinstatement-event (where specific event-related content was provided), mental reinstatement-combined (a combination of the two above-mentioned methods) and specific questions. Overall, mental reinstatement (irrespective of the type) was found to enhance correct recall performance compared to free recall and (unlike specific questions) it did not lead to greater number of commission errors. Contrary to our initial predictions, however, there was no evidence of any special benefit of mental reinstatement for children and the effect of the technique did not vary consistently as a function of retention interval.

SAS macros for point and interval estimation of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for non-proportional and proportional hazards Weibull models

Aims and objectives  For prediction of risk of cardiovascular end points using survival models the proportional hazards assumption is often not met. Thus, non-proportional hazards models are more appropriate for developing risk prediction equations in such situations. However, computer program for evaluating the prediction performance of such models has been rarely addressed. We therefore developed SAS macro programs for evaluating the discriminative ability of a non-proportional hazards Weibull model developed by Anderson (1991) and that of a proportional hazards Weibull model using the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Method  Two SAS macro programs for non-proportional hazards Weibull model using Proc NLIN and Proc NLP respectively and model validation using area under ROC curve (with its confidence limits) were written with SAS IML language. A similar SAS macro for proportional hazards Weibull model was also written.

Results  The computer program was applied to data on coronary heart disease incidence for a Framingham population cohort. The five risk factors considered were current smoking, age, blood pressure, cholesterol and obesity. The predictive ability of the non-proportional hazard Weibull model was slightly higher than that of its proportional hazard counterpart. An advantage of SAS Proc NLP in terms of the example provided here is that it provides significance level for the parameter estimates whereas Proc NLIN does not.

Conclusion  The program is very useful for evaluating the predictive performance of non-proportional and proportional hazards Weibull models.

Influence of the blink interval on tear meniscus height in soft contact lens and nonlens wearers

Purpose: Tear meniscus height (TMH) is an indirect measurement of tear film volume. This study investigated the temporal changes in the TMH during the blink interval in the morning (8–9 am) and at the end of the day (5–6 pm) in both soft contact lens (CL) and nonlens wearers (NLW).

Methods: Fifty participants (25 CL; 25 NLW) were evaluated for their subjective symptoms, TMH, noninvasive break up time, and bulbar hyperemia at the am and pm visits on the same day. The TMH was measured at set intervals between 2 and 15 sec during the blink interval, using an optical coherence tomographer.

Results: The NLW group revealed no changes in a variety of symptoms during the day, whereas the CL group reported an increase in dryness (P=0.03) and grittiness (P=0.02) over the day. For both groups, the TMH and calculated tear meniscus volume revealed lower values immediately after the blink and increased progressively afterwards, mainly due to reflex tearing. The am tear meniscus volume values tended to be higher than the pm values for both groups, but this was not significant (NLW P=0.13; CL P=0.82). Noninvasive break up time deteriorated during the day for both groups but was only significant for the CL group (P=0.002), whereas bulbar hyperemia revealed no statistically significant change for either group.

Conclusions: Reflex tearing may play a substantial role in the TMH differences observed over the blink interval. Standardization of the time when a TMH measurement is performed will be valuable in comparing tear film clinical studies.